Download - 5G: Reality vs. Hype
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TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
5G: Separating myth from reality
Technology Business Research Webinar Series
May 26, 2015
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Your presenter
Michael Sullivan-TrainorExecutive Analyst, TelecomEmail: [email protected]: @mikest
5G Webinar
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5G webinar agenda
•What is 5G?
oWhen will it happen?
oBenefits/Challenges
•Regional View
•Market Impact
•NFV/SDN Connection
•Leading Operators
•Leading Suppliers
5G Webinar
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What is 5G?
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5G
Speed
Peak data rate of 10Gbps
Latency
Under one millisecond, which is 50 times faster than 4GCapacity
100 to 1,000 times more capacity than 4G
Technology
Densely deployed small cells, NFV, massive MIMO antenna designs, RAN technology internetworking
5G: Not a panacea, though consensus formed around speed, capacity, latency and technology requirements
5G Webinar
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5G realization: No Big Bang5G Webinar
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5G realization: Fireworks5G Webinar
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20192015 2018 2020
• 5GPP Proof of Concepts• Joint EU, South Korea, Japan
research• Pan-European experimental
infrastructure• Ongoing R&D projects within
operators and suppliers
• Demonstration at Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, South Korea• Large-scale demonstrations
and trials• Regulatory support, system
definition and optimization, validation trials, standards consensus
• 1Gbps bandwidth commercial demonstration at 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo• First commercial offers by
operators
5G Timeline
20172016
5G deployment will gradually evolve based on the collaboration of operators, suppliers and nations
5G Webinar
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The process of 5G will result in ongoing innovation and challenges to support expanding Internet of Things and multimedia use cases
5G Webinar
5G Benefits:
•Media everywhere catering to user-defined performance requirements
• Internet of Things (IoT) applications requiring massive data analytics in multimode environments
•Mission-critical IoT
• Augmented/virtual reality commerce and gaming
5G Challenges:
•Massive carrier aggregation
•Massive MIMO
• Standards consensus
• Spectrum
• Diffusion of R&D efforts
• Lack of business focus
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Regional and Market Impacts
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Regional view: Densely populated, fiber-rich first movers stimulating larger investments by governments and operators
5G Webinar
AsiaJapan, Korea, China are in front
EMEA The EU makes its move
Americas Lagging but groundwork started
Regional View
• Japan’s NTT DoCoMo successfully trialed 4.5Gbps in a test with Ericsson.
• Hong Kong Telecom achieved 450Mbps utilizing three FDD Carrier Aggregation. Next is 1Gbps service on path to 10Gbps, all with Huawei.
• The EU announced the 5G Public-Private Partnership (5G PPP) investing €700 million to accelerate 5G development.
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Market impact: 5G will spur monetization opportunities in new and traditional operator business models
5G Webinar
Impact on Video Services:• Real HD TV Everywhere• Programming and advertising
models designed for flexible viewing and device optimization will add value to content bundles.
Impact on Internet of Things (IoT):• Maximum flexibility• Autonomous processes supported
by real-time deep analytics• Self-driving cars, industrial
processes, remote medicine
Impact on Communication Services:• Now it gets personal• Personalized video messaging,
instant meetings and secure transactions
Impact
Impact on Access Services:• Anywhere, any way• User-defined access will be
offered at an elevated average revenue per account.
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The NFV/SDN juggernaut to virtualize, automate and orchestrate the service provider network overtook the drive to 5G
5G Webinar
5G is dependent on a highly automated, intelligent network that can deliver on requirements efficiently.
NFV and SDN enable the immediate cost and service time-to-market efficiencies required for 5G.
The pace of change in the industry suggests NFV and SDN will be in place in time for the engineering breakthroughs required to deliver 5G by 2020.
The NFV/SDN Connection
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Leading Operators and Suppliers
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Leading operators: NTT — strategic imperative; Vodafone — global play; AT&T — agility first
5G Webinar
HIGH
HIGHLOW
Stra
tegi
c Im
port
ance
Rate of Adoption
Operator Positioning
• Early Adopter
• Mainstream
• Laggard
KEY• AT&T • Telefonica
• NTT
• Vodafone
• Bharti
• Rest of operators
• Verizon
• KT• SK Telecom
• SoftBank
• Etisalat
• China Mobile
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Leading suppliers: Huawei — evolver; Nokia — Liquid Networks; Samsung — first mover
5G Webinar
HIGH
HIGHLOW
Stra
tegi
c Im
port
ance
Rate of Adoption
Vendor Positioning
• Early Adopter
• Mainstream
• Laggard
KEY
• Ericsson• Nokia
• Alcatel-Lucent
• NEC
• Huawei
• ZTE• Samsung
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1
Business Models
• Commodity• Premium
Machine Models
•Autonomous• Intuitive
2
Consumption Models
•User-defined• Custom
Beyond 5G technology: New ways to interact with and monetize technology enabled by the network
3
5G Webinar
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TBR’s Telecom Practice covers telecom operators and vendors globally
5G Webinar
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Telecom Vendors
Telecom syndicated research coverage
Market Research Telecom Operators
Alcatel-LucentCisco SystemsEricssonHP Telecom & MobilityHuaweiIBM Telecom & MobilityJuniper NetworksNokia NetworksSamsung NetworksZTE
Telecom Infrastructure Services Global Market Forecast**
Telecom Infrastructure Services North America Market Forecast**
Telecom Vendor BenchmarkTelecom Infrastructure Services
BenchmarkTelecom Infrastructure Services
Margin Benchmark**
NFV Market Forecast** AT&TComcast SprintT-Mobile USATime Warner CableVerizon
U.S. & Canada Mobile Operator Benchmark
Carrier Cloud Benchmark*Enterprise Operator Benchmark*
Carrier Cloud Market Forecast**
NFV Market Landscape*Alternative Network Provider
Market Landscape*5G Market Landscape*Small Cells Market Landscape*Wi-Fi First Market Landscape*
Telecom Software Mediated Networks Customer Adoption Study*
*Semiannual publication **Annual publication
Vendor Reports Benchmarks Market LandscapesMarket Forecasts Customer Study
5G Webinar
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Telecom market landscape report description and schedule
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
• NFV Market Landscape
• Alternative Network Providers Market Landscape
• Small-cell Market Landscape
• 5G Market Landscape
• NFV Market Landscape
• Alternative Network Providers Market Landscape
• Small-cell Market Landscape
• 5G Market Landscape
MARKET LANDSC
APE
Includes key findings, market size, customer adoption, operator positioning and strategies, geographic adoption, vendor positioning and strategies, and acquisition and alliance strategies and opportunities
SMALL CELL
5G
ALTERNATIVE NETWORK
PROVIDERS
NFV
5G Webinar
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Questions?
Twitter: @TBRincSlideShare: www.slideshare.net/TBR_Market_InsightYouTube: www.youtube.com/user/TBRIChannelLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/technology-business-research
James McIlroy Vice President of SalesEmail: [email protected]: 603.929.1166
Michael Sullivan-TrainorExecutive Analyst, TelecomEmail: [email protected]: @mikest
5G Webinar
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TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
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