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4.3.3 Time Series
UPA Package 4, Module 3
TIME SERIES
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4.3.3 Time Series
Time Series
• Monitoring and Temporal Analysis• Index numbers• Feedback in the planning cycle• Growth Rates• Introduction exercise 4.3.3
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4.3.3 Time Series
Monitoring: Slum Trend 1990 - 2001
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4.3.3 Time Series
Monitoring: Proposed versus Real Land Use
Differences between master plan (1988) and reality (2000)
Wuhan, China
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4.3.3 Time Series
Monitoring and Temporal Analysis
• Monitoring to analyze and understand changes over time
Spatial-temporal analysis
• Performance measuring
Feedback and adaptation of programs and policies
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4.3.3 Time Series
Urban Growth, Villavicencio
Spatial – Temporal Urban Development
1970
1987 1994
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4.3.3 Time Series4.3.3 Time Series
6
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4.3.3 Time Series
Urban Growth, Wuhan
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4.3.3 Time Series
Nairobi, Kibera (1968)
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4.3.3 Time Series
Nairobi, Kibera (1978)
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4.3.3 Time Series
Nairobi, Kibera (1987)
Small Format Aerial Photograph
Courtesy Paul Hofstee, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
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4.3.3 Time Series
Nairobi, Kibera (2002)
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4.3.3 Time Series
Trujillo, Peru (1969)
Informal development
Aerial Photograph
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4.3.3 Time Series
Trujillo, Peru (1997)
Informal development
Spatial-TemporalDevelopment
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4.3.3 Time Series
Index Numbers
Index: composite measure of two or more indicators
e.g. consumer price index, human development index
Index number = (value / base value ) * 100
http://www.bls.gov/cpi
• define purpose of index• select data source• select base for comparison• select methods of aggregation and weighting
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4.3.3 Time Series
Index Numbers
Comparing indexes, index number/proportion/percentage
Ii = (Mi / M0) * 100
Ii = Index number in year i
Mi = measurement in year i
M0 = measurement in base year
Price of cup of coffee in 2002 € 2.00
Price of cup of coffee in 2004 € 2,25
Price relative is (2.25/2.00) * 100 = 113
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4.3.3 Time Series
Feedback in the Planning Cycle
• Assess current situation• Formulate policies and programs, prioritize objectives and
targets• Monitor implementation• Provide feedback to make mid-course changes• Communicate results
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4.3.3 Time Series
Growth Rates
Annual population growth rate
Pt = P0 * (1+r)t
P0 = Population at the beginning of the period
Pt = Population at the end of the period
r = average annual growth rate
t = number of years in the period
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4.3.3 Time Series
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4.3.3 Time Series
Population Growth Rates
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4.3.3 Time Series
Introduction Exercise 4.3.3
• (In) compatibility of data sets for different years
Changes in boundaries (splitting and merging of municipalities), code and name changes, new variables addes, old variables deleted, errors
• Calculate population and income changes in Dutch Municipalities between 1995 and 1999