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4-1© Kotler, Keller, Ang, Leong & Tan
Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
CAPTURING
MARKETING INSIGHTS
PART
2
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4-2© Kotler, Keller, Ang, Leong & Tan
Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
CONDUCTING
Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
Chapter
4
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
1. What constitutes good marketing research?2. What are good metrics for measuring
marketing productivity?3. How can marketers assess their return on
investment of marketing expenditures?4. How can companies more accurately
measure & forecast demand?
In this chapter, weaddress the
followingquestions:
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
LG Telecom - differentiated servicedifferentiated service - each group
- research on customer value & profitability
Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
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4-5© Kotler, Keller, Ang, Leong & Tan
Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research System
Good marketing research is Good marketing research is characterized by characterized by
scientific method, creativity,
multiple research methods,
accurate model building,
cost-benefit analysis,
a healthy skepticism
& an ethical focus
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Other ways to conduct research
Engage students Use the Internet Check out rivals
3 categoriesMarket Research
Firms
1. Syndicated-service2. Custom marketing3. Specialty-line
market
The Marketing Research System
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Define problem& research objective,
Develop research plan, Collect information, Analyze information,
Present findings to management& Make decision
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4-8© Kotler, Keller, Ang, Leong & Tan
Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Figure 4.1Figure 4.1TheMarketingResearchProcess
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4-9© Kotler, Keller, Ang, Leong & Tan
Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Marketing- studies to researcher Define problem carefully Survey, forecast, ad evaluation Marketing researcher - insight -
customer’s attitudes & buying behavior
Step 1: Define Problem, Decision Alternatives & Research Objectives
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4-10© Kotler, Keller, Ang, Leong & Tan
Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Develop efficient plan - gather information
Design research plan calls for:Data sourcesResearch approachesResearch instrumentsSampling planContact methods
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan
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4-11© Kotler, Keller, Ang, Leong & Tan
Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Secondary data Collected for other purpose & already exist Low cost & ready availabilityPrimary data Data freshly gathered for specific purpose
Procedure - interview people – their feeling on topic - develop instrument & proceed
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan - DATA SOURCES
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Primary data collected in 5 ways
1. Observation2. Focus groups3. Surveys4. Behavioral data5. Experiments
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan – RESEARCH APPROACHES
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A focus groupA focus group
The Marketing Research Process
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Marketing researchers - 3 main
research instruments to collect primary data:
1. Questionnaires
2. Qualitative measures
3. Mechanical devices
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan – RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Table 4.1 Types of Questions
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Table 4.1 Types of Questions
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Questionnaire Dos & Don’tsQuestionnaire Dos & Don’ts
1. Ensure questions - not biased
2. Make questions simple & specific
3. Avoid jargon
4. Avoid uncommon or ambiguous words
5. Avoid questions with a negative
6. Avoid hypothetical questions
7. Avoid words that could be misheard
8. Desensitize questions - use response bands
9. Ensure fixed responses don’t overlap
10.Allow for “other” in fixed response questions
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Qualitative research techniques Unstructured measurement
approaches Range of responses
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan – RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Understand customer experience 7 techniques1. Shadowing2. Behavior mapping 3. Consumer journey 4. Camera journals 5. Extreme user interviews6. Storytelling7. Unfocus groups
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan – RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Getting into Consumers’ HeadsGetting into Consumers’ Headswith Qualitative Researchwith Qualitative Research
Common qualitative research
approaches:
1) Word associations
2) Projective techniques
3) Visualization
4) Brand personification
5) Laddering
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
After research approach & instruments,
design sampling planDecide on:
1. Sampling unit2. Sample size
3. Sampling procedure
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan – SAMPLING PLAN
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Table 4.2 Probability & Non-probability Samples
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
The Marketing Research Process
Once sampling plan is determined,
decide how to contact subject:
Mail Questionnaire
Telephone Interview
Personal InterviewOnline Interview
Step 2: Develop the Research Plan – CONTACT METHODS
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Pros and Cons of Online ResearchPros and Cons of Online Research
AdvantagesAdvantagesInexpensiveFasterPeople - more honest online than - personal or telephone interviews More versatile
DisadvantagesDisadvantagesSamples - small & skewedProne to technological problems & inconsistencies
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The Marketing Research Process
Data collection – expensive, prone to
error
Get right respondents - critical
Data collection improve - technology
Protect personal data of respondents
Step 3: Collect the Information
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The Marketing Research Process
Step 3: Collect the Information
4 surveys problems:4 surveys problems:
1. Respondents not home2. Respondents refuse to cooperate3. Respondents – biased/dishonest
answers4. Interviewers biased or dishonest
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The Marketing Research Process
Extract findings from collected data Tabulate & develop frequency
distribution Averages & dispersion computed -
variables Advanced statistical techniques &
decision models
Step 4: Analyze the Information
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The Marketing Research Process
The researcher present findings relevant to major marketing decisions facing management
Step 5: Present the Findings
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The Marketing Research Process
Marketing decision support system (MDSS)Marketing decision support system (MDSS)
Collection of data, systems, tools & techniques
With software & hardware by which organization
gathers & interprets relevant information
from business & environment & used
for marketing action
Step 6: Make the Decision
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Table 4.3 7 Characteristics - Good Marketing Research
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The Marketing Research Process
Many fail to use marketing research sufficiently or correctly WHY?WHY?Narrow conception of research Uneven caliber of researchers Poor framing of problemLate & occasionally erroneous findingsPersonality & presentational differences
Overcoming Barriers to the Use of Marketing Research
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The Marketing Research Process
Failure to use marketing research properly
led to numerous gaffes:Eg: Star Wars
Researcher predicted science fiction film fail– America - realism over science fiction– “War” in title - America would stay away
He gave information, not insight Failed to study script - human story -
against space backdrop
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Marketing Research in Asia
Marketing research in Asia challenging
WHY?WHY?
1. Unreliable/no secondary data
2. Databases not comparable cross-nationally
3. Poor research infrastructure
4. Cultural differences in response
5. Variations in research capabilities
6. High rates of change in marketplace
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Marketing Research in Asia
Solutions:
1.Sequence piloting, adapting & rollout of
surveys regionally
2.External validation of data sources
3.Use samples on future demographic
profiles
4. Invest on research capabilities &
infrastructure
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Marketers accountable for investments
Justify marketing expenditures
Measure Marketing Productivity 2 WAYS:
1. Marketing metrics
2. Marketing mix modeling
Measuring Marketing Productivity
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Marketing Metrics
Marketing metrics set of measures - to quantify, compare
& interpret marketing performance customer/company-level concerns
– Eg: 3M tracks sales % from recent innovation
Processes - maximize metrics value Measures - marketing dashboard -
synthesis & interpretation
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Table 4.4 Sample marketing metrics
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2 scorecards 2 scorecards
- Performance & warning signals- Performance & warning signals::
1. Customer-performance scorecard– Annual performance - customer-based
measures
2. Stakeholder-performance scorecard– Tracks satisfaction of those with critical
interest in & impact on performance
Measuring Marketing Productivity
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Table 4.5 Sample Customer-Performance Scorecard Measures
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44 tools tools to check on plan performance:
1. Sales analysis2. Market share analysis
3. Marketing expense-to-sales analysis4. Financial analysis
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Measuring Marketing Plan Performance
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SALES ANALYSIS Measure & evaluate actual sales - goals
2 tools:1. Sales-variance analysis - relative
contribution of factors to gap in sales performance
2. Microsales analysis - products, territories that failed to produce expected sales
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Measuring Marketing Plan Performance
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4-42© Kotler, Keller, Ang, Leong & Tan
Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS
Market share measured in 3 ways:Market share measured in 3 ways: 1. Overall market share:
– sales as % of total market sales
2. Served market share: – sales as % of sales to served market– always > overall market share
3. Relative market share: – market share in relation to largest competitor
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Measuring Marketing Plan Performance
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
MARKET SHARE ANALYSISAssumptions (not true/valid always):1. Outside forces affect firms- same way 2. Performance - against average of industry 3. New firm- industry– each firm’s market share
falls
Market share decline - deliberate - profits Market share - fluctuate - many minor
reasons
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Measuring Marketing Plan Performance
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Measuring Marketing Productivity- Measuring Marketing Plan Performance
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
MARKETING EXPENSE-TO-SALES ANALYSIS
Annual-plan control - company not overspend -achieve sales goals
Key ratio - marketing expense-to-sales Find how & where company makes
money Abnormal fluctuations - cause for
concern Period-to-period fluctuations tracked -
control chart
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Measuring Marketing Plan Performance
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Figure 4.2 The Control-Chart Model
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Find profitable strategies beyond
sales Factors - rate of return on net worth
Return on net worth =
return on assets x financial leverage
To improve return on net worth– Increase net profits to assets ratio – Increase assets to net worth ratio
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Measuring Marketing Plan Performance
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
Figure 4.3 Financial Model of Return on Net Worth
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Marketing Management - An Asian Perspective4th Edition
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Return on assets = Return on assets =
profit margin xprofit margin x asset turnoverasset turnover
Improve performance - HOW? 2 ways: 1. Increase profit margin
– increase sales/cut costs
2. Increase asset turnover– increase sales/reduce assets for given sales level
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Measuring Marketing Plan Performance
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Deep financial analysis – benefits firm
Determine if any product/marketing
activity- expanded, reduced or removed
Analyze profitability of: Products,
territories, customer groups, segments,
trade channels, order sizes
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Profitability Analysis
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MARKETING-PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS
Step 1: Identify Functional Expenses Table 4.6 & 4.7Step 2: Assign Functional Expenses to Marketing Entities Table 4.8Step 3: Prepare Profit-and-Loss
Statement for each Marketing Entity Table 4.8 & Table 4.9
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Profitability Analysis
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Table 4.6Table 4.6Simplified Profit-and-Loss Statement
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Table 4.7Table 4.7 Mapping Natural Expenses into Functional Expenses
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Table 4.8Bases for Allocating Functional Expenses to Channels
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Table 4.9 Profit-and-Loss Statements for Channels
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DETERMINING CORRECTIVE ACTION
Marketing-profitability analysis
Only indicate relative profitability of channels, product etc
Not to drop unprofitable entities
Not to show profit if entities dropped
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Profitability Analysis
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DIRECT VERSUS FULL COSTING Allocate full costs OR only direct &
traceable costs to evaluate entity’s performance
33 types of costs: types of costs:
1. Direct costs 2. Traceable common costs 3. Non-traceable common costs
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Profitability Analysis
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Full-cost approach
All costs imputed to get true profit
33 major weaknesses:
1. Profit shift if cost allocation replaced
2. Demoralizes managers
3. Weaken real cost control
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Profitability Analysis
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Activity-based cost accounting
(ABC)
Quantify true profitability of activities
Refocus from only standard to full
cost
Capture actual costs of supporting
individual products, customers &
others
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Profitability Analysis
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Marketing-mix models
– Analyze data - effects of marketing
– But not how elements work together
– Eg: Multivariate analyses
– How each marketing element influences outcomes
Measuring Marketing Productivity- Marketing-Mix Modeling
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Forecasting & Demand Measurement
Marketing research - opportunities
Sales forecasts– Raise investment, hire workers– Based on estimates of demand
Managers need to define market demand
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Forecasting & Demand Measurement
Importance of defining market correctly:– Eg: Coke’s sales believed to be maxed out
– New CEO changed that view
– Coca-Cola: tiny Coca-Cola: tiny %% of of fluid world drank dailyfluid world drank daily
– ““The enemy is coffee, milk, tea, water” The enemy is coffee, milk, tea, water”
– Ushered in a huge period of growth
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The Measures of Market Demand
Companies can prepare up to 90 types of demand estimates
Each demand measure - specific purpose– Eg: Company forecasts regional demand
for major product line to decide whether to set up regional distribution
Forecasts also depend on type of market
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Figure 4.4 Ninety Types of Demand Measurement (6 ×
5 × 3)
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The Measures of Market Demand
Productive ways to break down
market:
1. The potential market
2. The available market
3. The target market
4. The penetrated market
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The Measures of Market Demand- A Vocabulary for Demand Measurement
MARKET DEMAND
Total product volume bought by defined customer groupin defined geographical area in defined time period in defined marketing environment under defined marketing program
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The Measures of Market Demand- A Vocabulary for Demand Measurement Marketing sensitivity of demand
– Distance between market minimum & potential
Expansible market– Total size affected by marketing expenditures
Market penetration index– Compare current demand to potential demand
Share penetration index– Compare current to potential market share
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Figure 4.5 Market Demand Functions
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Figure 4.5 Market Demand Functions
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The Measures of Market Demand- A Vocabulary for Demand MeasurementMARKET DEMAND
MARKET FORECAST expected market demand
MARKET POTENTIAL market demand from high
expenditure– more effort, little demand
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The Measures of Market Demand- A Vocabulary for Demand MeasurementMARKET DEMAND COMPANY DEMAND Estimated share of demand at levels of
marketing in given time period
COMPANY SALES FORECAST Expected sales based on marketing &
environment
COMPANY SALES POTENTIAL Sales limit by demand as marketing
increases relative to competitors
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The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Current DemandTOTAL MARKET POTENTIAL
Maximum sales to industry in period, given level of industry marketing & environmental conditions
AREA MARKET POTENTIAL
Sales available to territory given a level of conditions
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The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Current Demand2 methods to assess Area Market
Potential:
1. Market-Buildup Method– Identify buyers in market & estimate purchases
– Accurate but not easy to gather
2. Multiple-Factor Index Method– Estimate area market potentials
– Single factor not complete indicator of sales
– Multiple-factor – each assigned specific weight
– Numbers are weights - to variable
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Table 4.10Table 4.10 Calculating the Brand Development Index (BDI)
BDI: Index of brand sales to category sales
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The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Current DemandINDUSTRY SALES AND MARKET SHARES Actual industry sales in market Competitors & estimate their sales
How?1. Published total industry sales2. Buy reports from marketing
research firm - audits total sales & brand sales
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The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future Demand
3-stage procedure - sales forecast3-stage procedure - sales forecast
1. Macroeconomic forecast
2. Industry forecast
3. Company sales forecast
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The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future Demand How do firms develop their
forecasts?– Internally or buy forecasts
Forecasts built on: what people say what people do or what people have done
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The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future DemandSURVEY OF BUYERS’ INTENTIONS
Forecasting - Anticipate what buyers do given conditions
Consumer surveys:
– Buying intentions
– Personal finances
– Expectations about economy
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The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future DemandSURVEY OF BUYERS’ INTENTIONS
Shifts in buying intentions
– Firms adjust production & marketing
Business buying
– Surveys done on plant, equipment &
materials
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The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future Demand Buyer-intention surveys -
estimate demand – product purchase
Value increases if:1. Cost to reach buyers is small2. Few buyers3. Clear intentions4. Implement intentions5. Willingly disclose intentions
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SALES FORCE OPINIONS
Involve sales to forecast future sales Encourage better estimate - incentives
BenefitsBenefits:
1. Sales reps - insight into trends
2. Reps > confidence in quota & achieve it
3. “Grassroots” forecast - detailed estimates by product, territory, customer & sales rep
The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future Demand
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EXPERT OPINIONS Experts: distributors, suppliers,
consultants & trade associations1. Buy forecasts - forecasting firms
– More data available & forecasting expertise
2. Invite experts to prepare forecast Group-discussion method Pooling of individual estimates
The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future Demand
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PAST-SALES ANALYSIS1.Time series analysis
– past time-series - projects them into future
2.Exponential smoothing– project sales – use past average & recent sales
3.Statistical demand analysis– measure impact causal factors on sales
4.Econometric analysis– equations to describe system & fit parameters
statistically
The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future Demand
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MARKET-TEST METHOD Direct-market test
– Buyers purchases not carefully planned or
– Experts not available/reliable
Forecast new/established product sales in a new distribution channel/territory
The Measures of Market Demand- Estimating Future Demand
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Marketing Debate What is the Best Type of Marketing Research?
Many market researchers have their favorite research approaches or techniques, although different researchers often have differentpreferences. Some researchers maintain that the only way to really learn about consumers or brands is through in-depth, qualitative research. Others contend that the only legitimate & defensible form of marketing research involves quantitative measures.
Take a position: Marketing research should be quantitative versus Marketing research should be qualitative.
Marketing DiscussionWhen was the last time you participated in a survey?
How helpful do you think was the information you provided? How could the research have been done differently to make it more
effective?
Final discussion
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Video Links
Primary Video to watch: Burke, Inc. (9:01 min)
Secondary Videos to watch: Sony Metreon (8:30 min) Wild Planet (9:21 min)
Click here to watch the video clips from the US Website.