Download - 302 unit1 forecasting
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Volti, Unit 1 information, chapters 1-3
• The Nature of Technology• Winners and Losers: The Differential Effects
of Technological Change• The Sources of Technological Change
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Forecasting• Any individual or organization affected by
technological change inevitably engages in forecasting (financial, economic, etc.)
• Goal is not always to predict future• examine trends• predict likely scenarios• develop contingency plans
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Methods of Forecasting
• Summarized from Martino’s Technological Forecasting: An Introduction handout (PDF available in Course Documents area)
• Examples may overlap with more than one method
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Extrapolation• Projecting a pattern that has been found in
the past, to anticipate potential outcomes in the future
• Examples: Moore’s Law / El Nino• Examples?
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Leading Indicators• Using one time series to anticipate / obtain
information another time series
• Assumption is that both time series share similar behaviors, but with a time-lag
• Example: “What the barometer is doing today is what the rain clouds will do tomorrow”
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Causal Models• Finding cause and effect relationships • Contextualizing first two methods• Example: understanding why the barometer
itself works, in order to better understand why there will be rain clouds tomorrow.
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Probabilistic Methods• Forecasting using any combination of the first
three methods, then arriving at a range of possible values
• Example: 70% chance of showers
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