Download - 3. erm tm 3
MOHAMAD HASSAN AK., MAFIS, QIA, CRMP, CRMA
Sejauhmana dampak dari events dapat mengganggu
objectives.
Menghitung Inherent maupun Residual risk
Events dianalisis dalam dua perspectives:
Likelihood
Impact
Risk = Likelihood * Consequence
Catastrophic
Major
Moderate
Minor
Insignificant
Certain
Likely
Moderate
Unlikely
Rare
Risks
2
1
3
Likely
Moderate
Unlikely
Remote
Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
S S H H H
M
L
L
L M S
H
H
H H
H
S
S
S S
M
Almost Certain
a
b
d
e
Lik
elih
oo
d o
f Occu
rren
ce
Consequence
c
f
High
Medium
Low
Low Medium High
Magnitude of Impact
Pro
ba
bil
ity o
f O
cc
urr
en
ce
Your Risk Appetite
Mission Critical Risks
RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
RISK IDENTIFICATION
RISK MEASUREMENT
RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL
RISK MONITORING RISK
MGT
PROCESS
RISK MEASUREMENT PROCESS
ABSOLUTE / INHERENT RISK MEASUREMENT
RESIDUAL RISK MEASUREMENT
EXISTING RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL EVALUATION
RISK MEASUREMENT – ADDITIONAL PROCESS
ADDITIONAL RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL
IMPLEMENTATION & EVALUATION
EXPECTED / TOLERABLE RISK MEASUREMENT
RISK MEASUREMENT – GENERAL FORMULA
INHERENT RISK – EXISTING RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL = RESIDUAL RISK
RESIDUAL RISK – ADDITIONAL RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL = EXPECTED /
TOLERABLE RISK
RISK MEASUREMENT – FORMULA VISUALIZATION
INHERENT
RISK
RESIDUAL
RISK EXPECTED
RISK
EXISTING
CONTROL ADDITIONAL
CONTROL
RISK MEASUREMENT – EXPECTED LOSS (ON ASSETS)
RISK OF LOOSING ASSETS
RISK OF DECREASING VALUE OF ASSETS
SMALL, PORTABLE, VALUABLE
BIG, PORTABLE, VALUABLE
BIG, NOT PORTABLE, VALUABLE
STOLEN
STOLEN, FIRE
FIRE
SMALL, PORTABLE, VALUABLE
BIG, PORTABLE, VALUABLE
BIG, NOT PORTABLE, VALUABLE
POOR HANDLING
POOR MAINTENANCE
POWER FAILURE
RISK MEASUREMENT – EXPECTED LOSS (ON ASSETS)
RISK PROFILE
ASSETS CHARACTERISTICS RISKS RISK
EXPOSURES
A SMALL,
PORTABLE,
VALUABLE
STOLEN, POOR
HANDLING HIGH
B BIG, PORTABLE,
VALUABLE
STOLEN, FIRE,
POOR
MAINTENANCE
MEDIUM
C BIG, NOT
PORTABLE,
VALUABLE
FIRE, POWER
FAILURE MEDIUM
D SMALL,
PORTABLE,
VALUABLE
STOLEN, POOR
HANDLING LOW
RISK HANDLING
PRIORITY
1ST
2ND
2ND
3RD
RISK MEASUREMENT (LIKELIHOOD – IMPACT MATRIX)
RISK = LIKELIHOOD X IMPACT
RISK MEASUREMENT FORMULA
CERTAIN
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
MODERATE
UNLIKELY
RARE
CATASTROPHIC / EXTREME
IMPACT
MAJOR / HIGH
MODERATE / MEDIUM
MINOR / LOW
INSIGNIFICANT
RISK MEASUREMENT (LIKELIHOOD IMPACT MATRIX)
I = 1 L = 2 M = 3 H = 4 E = 5
IMPACT
R = 1
U = 2
M = 3
L = 4
C = 5
1 2 3 4 5
2 4 6 8 10
3 6 9 12 15
4 8 12 16 20
5 10 15 20 25
L
I
K
E
L
I
H
O
O
D
L
I
1 – 2 = I
15 – 25 = E
10 – 12 = H
5 – 9 = M
3 – 4 = L
RISK SCALE
RISK MEASUREMENT (LIKELIHOOD – IMPACT MATRIX)
CERTAIN = MORE THAN 5 TIMES A YEAR
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY = 3 – 5 TIMES A YEAR
MODERATE = 2 TIMES A YEAR
UNLIKELY = ONCE IN A YEAR
RARE = ONCE IN MORE THAN A YEAR
IMPACT
EXTREME
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
INSIGN
FIN NON FIN
USD. > 1000 T
USD.>500–1000T
USD.>100–500 T
USD.1 – 100 T
< USD.1 T
INT’L
NATIONAL
ORG
DEPT
SECT
RISK MEASUREMENT (LIKELIHOOD – IMPACT MATRIX)
RISK PROFILE
RISKS RISK VALUE
LH IP TV
RISK
EXPOSURES
RISK HANDLING
PRIORITY ACTIVITIES
5 1 5 M 3RD A 1
2 5 10 H 2ND B
3 1 3 L 4TH A 2
2 1 2 I 5TH A 3
4 5 20 E 1ST C
NOTES :
LH = LIKELIHOOD
IP = IMPACT
TV = TOTAL VALUE
I = INSIGNIFICANT
L = LOW
M = MEDIUM
H = HIGH
E = EXTREME
RISK MEASUREMENT – RISK FACTORS
VALUE OF ASSETS
LIQUIDITY OF ASSETS
COMPLEXITY OF ACTIVITY
VOLUME OF ACTIVITY
FACTORS INCREASE / DECREASE RISK EXPOSURE
RISK MEASUREMENT – RISK FACTORS
RISK PROFILE – ACTIVITY A
RISK
HANDLING
PRIORITY
2ND
3RD
RISKS
1
2
3 1ST
RISK
FACTORS
A
B
A
A
C
RISK FACTOR
SCORE
1
2
1
1
3
RISK FACTOR
WEIGHT
20%
80%
100%
40%
60%
RISK VALUE
0,2 + 1,6 = 1,8
1
0,4 + 1,8 = 2,2
UNSUR RISIKO - KEMUNGKINAN (PROBABILITY)
No RISIKO (EVENT)
Code
Risiko A B C D E F G H I Rata-2
1 Bahan baku tidak tersedia dipasar # 1 2 3 3 8 2 3 5 3 3 3.6
2 Penunjukkan langsung rekanan tanpa proses tender # 2 3 4 4 8 9 7 4 3 4 5.1
3 Bahan baku yang diterima tidak sesuai spesifikasi. # 3 6 6 9 8 6 5 7 9 6 6.9
4
Rekanan wanprestasi (tidak mampu memenuhi
pesanan) # 4 2 2 4 8 2 5 3 2 2 3.3
5 Pembelian bahan baku tanpa otorisasi # 5 2 5 5 7 8 5 3 1 5 4.6
6
Terjadi gempa bumi yang menghambat pengiriman
bahan. # 6 1 1 7 3 2 1 3 1 1 2.2
7 Kapal laut pengangkut bahan baku tenggelam di laut # 7 1 1 5 5 2 1 3 1 5 2.7
8 PO diterbitkan tanpa adanya PR # 8 2 2 7 7 7 5 3 1 7 4.6
9 Terjadi perampokan bahan baku dalam perjalanan. # 9 2 2 4 7 4 5 6 4 2 4.0
10
Tidak ada performance evaluation yang standar
terhadap rekanan #10 5 4 5 6 3 5 2 2 2 3.8
11 Fluktuasi harga bahan baku yang tidak stabil #11 3 7 8 9 7 5 4 5 7 6.1
12
Otorisasi purchasing dilakukan oleh petugas yang
tidak berwenang #12 2 4 7 7 7 5 2 2 4 4.4
13
Adanya kebijakan pemerintah yang mengatur masalah
purchasing #13 1 2 7 8 2 7 3 1 2 3.7
14
Harga bahan baku di atas patokan harga dasar
pembelian #14 3 3 1 9 5 5 3 1 5 3.9
15 Fluktuasi nilai mata uang asing (kurs mata uang) #15 9 7 6 9 7 5 3 5 5 6.2
UNSUR RISIKO - DAMPAK (IMPACT)
No RISIKO (EVENT)
Code
Resiko A B C D E F G H I
Rata-2
1 Bahan baku tidak tersedia dipasar # 1 9 6 8 10 9 10 6 2 9 7.7
2 Penunjukkan langsung rekanan tanpa proses tender # 2 7 6 2 9 5 10 5 2 10 6.2
3 Bahan baku yang diterima tidak sesuai spesifikasi. # 3 9 8 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 7.8
4
Rekanan wanprestasi (tidak mampu memenuhi
pesanan) # 4 7 5 3 10 9 5 4 1 3 5.2
5 Pembelian bahan baku tanpa otorisasi # 5 8 6 5 9 4 5 5 1 5 5.3
6
Terjadi gempa bumi yang menghambat pengiriman
bahan. # 6 7 6 8 10 9 10 5 1 6 6.9
7 Kapal laut pengangkut bahan baku tenggelam di laut # 7 5 6 9 10 9 10 5 1 8 7.0
8 PO diterbitkan tanpa adanya PR # 8 5 7 5 8 2 5 6 1 5 4.9
9 Terjadi perampokan bahan baku dalam perjalanan. # 9 4 8 5 10 8 10 8 8 10 7.9
10
Tidak ada performance evaluation yang standar
terhadap rekanan #10 5 6 5 8 2 5 4 1 5 4.6
11 Fluktuasi harga bahan baku yang tidak stabil #11 5 7 6 9 7 7 6 10 7 7.1
12
Otorisasi purchasing dilakukan oleh petugas yang
tidak berwenang #12 5 6 6 8 2 5 3 1 6 4.7
13
Adanya kebijakan pemerintah yang mengatur masalah
purchasing #13 7 5 8 10 8 10 6 1 8 7.0
14
Harga bahan baku di atas patokan harga dasar
pembelian #14 8 6 3 9 7 5 4 1 3 5.1
15 Fluktuasi nilai mata uang asing (kurs mata uang) #15 9 6 5 9 5 5 7 10 5 6.8
0.00
5.00
10.00
0.00 5.00 10.00
Ke
mu
ng
kin
an
Dampak
Risiko
RISK MAPPING IN RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
No RISIKO (EVENT)
Code
Risiko Likelihood Impact
1 Bahan baku tidak tersedia dipasar # 1 3.56 7.67
2 Penunjukkan langsung rekanan tanpa proses tender # 2 5.11 6.22
3 Bahan baku yang diterima tidak sesuai spesifikasi. # 3 6.89 7.78
4 Rekanan wanprestasi (tidak mampu memenuhi pesanan) # 4 3.33 5.22
5 Pembelian bahan baku tanpa otorisasi # 5 4.56 5.33
6 Terjadi gempa bumi yang menghambat pengiriman bahan. # 6 2.22 6.89
7 Kapal laut pengangkut bahan baku tenggelam di laut # 7 2.67 7.00
8 PO diterbitkan tanpa adanya PR # 8 4.56 4.89
9 Terjadi perampokan bahan baku dalam perjalanan. # 9 4.00 7.89
10 Tidak ada performance evaluation yang standar terhadap rekanan #10 3.78 4.56
11 Fluktuasi harga bahan baku yang tidak stabil #11 6.11 7.11
12 Otorisasi purchasing dilakukan oleh petugas yang tidak berwenang #12 4.44 4.67
13 Adanya kebijakan pemerintah yang mengatur masalah purchasing #13 3.67 7.00
14 Harga bahan baku di atas patokan harga dasar pembelian #14 3.89 5.11
15 Fluktuasi nilai mata uang asing (kurs mata uang) #15 6.22 6.78