2017/18 Crop Market Outlook & Strategies
Frayne Olson, PhDCrop Economist/Marketing Specialist
Director – Burdick Center for [email protected] 701-231-7377 (o) 701-715-3673 (c)
NDSU Extension ServiceND Agricultural Experiment Station
Dept. of Agribusiness & Applied Economics
Key Points• U.S. production (yield) is strong, but demand
is also very good.• Export pace and S.A. production is current
focus.• Geopolitical events and trade negotiations
are the wildcards.• Picking the top is nearly impossible!• Strategies:
– Make several smaller sales.– Place sell orders at key price levels in advance.
World Soybean Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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Stocks-to-Use Total Production Total Use
Jan. 12, 2017 USDA ‐WASDE & PSD Custom Query
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Stocks‐to‐Use Ratio
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Stocks‐to‐Use Total Production Total Use
U.S. Soybean – Total Prod. & Use(Billion Bushels)
Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand TableU.S. Soybean 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 82.7 Mill. A. 83.4 Mill. A. 90.1 Mill. A.Harvested A. 81.7 Mill. A. 82.7 Mill. A. 89.5 Mill. A.Yield/Harvest A. 48.0 bu. 52.0 bu. 49.1 bu.Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu.Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu.Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu.Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu.Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu.Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu.Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu.Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand TableU.S. Soybean 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 82.7 Mill. A. 83.4 Mill. A. 90.1 Mill. A.Harvested A. 81.7 Mill. A. 82.7 Mill. A. 89.5 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 48.0 bu. 52.0 bu. 49.1 bu.Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu.Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu.Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu.Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu.Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu.Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu.Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu.Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu.
Private estimates:Average = 49.5High = 50.0Low =49.0
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand TableU.S. Soybean 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 82.7 Mill. A. 83.4 Mill. A. 90.1 Mill. A.Harvested A. 81.7 Mill. A. 82.7 Mill. A. 89.5 Mill. A.Yield/Harvest A. 48.0 bu. 52.0 bu. 49.1 bu.Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu.
Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu.Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu.Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu.Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu.Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu.Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu.Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu.
Total Production is fifth record year in a row!
(2.2% above last year’s record)
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. Soybean Use
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Million Bu
shels
CrushingsExportsSeed & Residual
Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand TableU.S. Soybean 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 82.7 Mill. A. 83.4 Mill. A. 90.1 Mill. A.Harvested A. 81.7 Mill. A. 82.7 Mill. A. 89.5 Mill. A.Yield/Harvest A. 48.0 bu. 52.0 bu. 49.1 bu.Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu.Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu.Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu.
Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu.Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu.Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu.Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu.Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu.
If correct, Crushingswould be a another new record due to
increased feed usage and strong export demand for meal.
(2.7% increase)
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand TableU.S. Soybean 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 82.7 Mill. A. 83.4 Mill. A. 90.1 Mill. A.Harvested A. 81.7 Mill. A. 82.7 Mill. A. 89.5 Mill. A.Yield/Harvest A. 48.0 bu. 52.0 bu. 49.1 bu.Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu.Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu.Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu.
Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu.Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu.Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu.Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu.Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu.
RFS for biodiesel is very important in today’s market.
32.6% of soybean oil is forecast to be used in biodiesel.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand TableU.S. Soybean 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 82.7 Mill. A. 83.4 Mill. A. 90.1 Mill. A.Harvested A. 81.7 Mill. A. 82.7 Mill. A. 89.5 Mill. A.Yield/Harvest A. 48.0 bu. 52.0 bu. 49.1 bu.Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu.Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu.Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu.Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu.Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu.Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu.Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu.
Exports are forecast to decrease1.0% from last year due to slow
start to export season.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
Weekly U.S. Soybean Export Sales(09/01/2013 – 01/18/2018)
USDA‐FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
0
500,000
1,000,000
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Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
MetricTons/W
eek
2013‐2014 2014‐2015 2015‐2016 2016‐2017 2017‐2018
U.S. Soybean Export Destinations
(1,000 Metric Ton)
2016 Soybean Exports by Country – FAS Online
Country 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
China 23,506.9 21,522.4 27,602.2 29,640.8 29,855.0 36,148.3Mexico 3,153.1 2,565.4 3,194.5 3,438.8 3,252.6 3,665.0Indonesia 1,711.0 1,682.4 2,291.5 1,875.9 2,028.6 2,296.9Japan 1,673.6 1,751.0 1,826.4 2,011.4 2,145.6 2,137.2Netherlands 606.8 734.6 1,015.6 1,879.4 2,037.7 2,044.9Taiwan 912.6 1,120.0 1,133.6 1,310.8 1,232.9 1,292.7
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand TableU.S. Soybean 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 82.7 Mill. A. 83.4 Mill. A. 90.1 Mill. A.Harvested A. 81.7 Mill. A. 82.7 Mill. A. 89.5 Mill. A.Yield/Harvest A. 48.0 bu. 52.0 bu. 49.1 bu.Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu.Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu.Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu.Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu.
Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu.Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu.Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu.Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu.
Will the dispute with North Korea impact trade relations
with China?
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
Ocean Vessel Movements in Asia
www.chinaag.org ‐ Jan. 29, 2017
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand TableU.S. Soybean 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 82.7 Mill. A. 83.4 Mill. A. 90.1 Mill. A.Harvested A. 81.7 Mill. A. 82.7 Mill. A. 89.5 Mill. A.Yield/Harvest A. 48.0 bu. 52.0 bu. 49.1 bu.Beginning Stocks 191 Mill. Bu. 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu.Production 3,926 Mill. Bu. 4,296 Mill. Bu. 4,392 Mill. Bu.Imports 24 Mill. Bu. 22 Mill. Bu. 25 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 4,140 Mill. Bu. 4,515 Mill. Bu. 4,718 Mill. Bu.Crushings 1,886 Mill. Bu. 1,899 Mill. Bu. 1,950 Mill. Bu.Exports 1,942 Mill. Bu. 2,174 Mill. Bu. 2,160 Mill. Bu.Seed 97 Mill. Bu. 105 Mill. Bu. 106 Mill. Bu.Residual 18 Mill. Bu. 36 Mill. Bu. 35 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 3,944 Mill. Bu. 4,213 Mill. Bu. 4,248 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 197 Mill. Bu. 302 Mill. Bu. 470 Mill. Bu.
Stocks‐to‐Use Ratio is forecast to increase from
7.2% to 11.1%
Total Production is increasing faster than Use.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
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U.S. Soybean – Total Prod. & Use(Billion Bushels)
Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Oil Yearbook Table 3
Mar. CBOT Soybean Pricing Points
DTN Prophet X – 02‐01‐18 am
Historical Soybean Production(Million Metric Ton)
Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & PSD Tables 21, 22 and 23
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United States Brazil Argentina
Brazilian Percent Soil Moisture
USDA – FAS – Crop Explorer
Jan. 21, 2018SMOS
Hazard (wet) ≈ 90% ‐ 100%Optimum ≈ 50% – 80%Hazard (dry) ≈ 0% ‐ 40%
Argentine Percent Soil Moisture
USDA – FAS – Crop Explorer
Jan. 21, 2018SMOS
Hazard (wet) ≈ 90% ‐ 100%Optimum ≈ 50% – 80%Hazard (dry) ≈ 0% ‐ 40%
World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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USDA – WASDE‐ Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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USDA – WASDE‐ Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
Who holds wheat ending stocks?
2016/17 2017/18China: 43.9% → 47.8%U.S. : 12.7% → 10.0%Russia: 4.3% → 6.1%
World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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USDA – WASDE‐ Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
World Wheat Prod, Use & Stocks/Use(Million Metric Ton)
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Stocks‐to‐Use Total Production Total Dom. Use
Without China Production and Use
USDA – WASDE‐ Jan. 12, 2017 & PSD Custom Query
U.S. All Wheat – Total Prod. & Use(Billion Bushels)
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Stocks‐to‐Use Total Production Total Use
Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
U.S. All Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.1 Mill. A. 46.0 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A. 37.6 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.6 bu. 52.7 bu. 46.3 bu.
Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu.
Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu.
Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu.
Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu.
Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. All Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.1 Mill. A. 46.0 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A. 37.6 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.6 bu. 52.7 bu. 46.3 bu.
Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu.
Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu.
Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu.
Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu.
Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.1 Mill. A. 46.0 Mill. A.Harvested A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A. 37.6 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.6 bu. 52.7 bu. 46.3 bu.
Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu.
Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu.
Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu.
Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu.
Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Planted Acreage is lowest since 1919, when USDA first
began to track wheat plantings.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
Winter Wheat Seedings – Jan. 12, 2018
Winter Wheat Seedings ReportWinter Wheat Seedings (million acres)
TotalWinter
Hard Red
Winter
Soft Red Winter
WhiteWinter
Average Trade Estimate 31.307 22.327 5.555 3.435Highest Trade Estimate 32.000 23.100 5.900 3.600
Lowest Trade Estimate 30.100 21.100 5.180 3.120
USDA 2017 seedings 32.696 23.426 5.733 3.537USDA 2018 seedings 32.608 23.100 5.980 3.560
U.S. All Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.1 Mill. A. 46.0 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A. 37.6 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.6 bu. 52.7 bu. 46.3 bu.Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu.
Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu.
Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu.
Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu.
Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
2017 N.D. Avg. HRSW = 41.0 bu./a.2016 N.D. Avg. HRSW = 46.0 bu./a.
2017 N.D. Avg. Durum = 24.0 bu./a.2016 N.D. Avg. Durum = 40.5 bu./a.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. All Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.1 Mill. A. 46.0 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A. 37.6 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.6 bu. 52.7 bu. 46.3 bu.
Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu.Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu.
Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu.
Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu.
Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Total Production is 24.6% below 2016, and lowest since 2002.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
0
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U.S. All Wheat Use(Million Bushels)
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017 & USDA Wheat Yearbook ‐Table 5
U.S. All Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.1 Mill. A. 46.0 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A. 37.6 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.6 bu. 52.7 bu. 46.3 bu.
Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu.
Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu.
Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu.Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu.
Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Food use changes with U.S. population growth and flour extraction rates.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. All Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.1 Mill. A. 46.0 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A. 37.6 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.6 bu. 52.7 bu. 46.3 bu.
Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu.
Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu.
Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu.
Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu.
Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu.Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Exports are critical for U.S. wheat prices and are forecast to decrease
7.6%.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
Weekly U.S. All Wheat Export Sales(06/01/2014 – 01/18/2018)
USDA‐FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
‐
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Metric
Ton
s
Accumulated Exports
2014‐2015 2015‐2016 2016‐2017 2017‐2018
Weekly U.S. HRS Wheat Export Sales(06/06/2013 – 01/18/2018)
USDA‐FSA Weekly Export Sales Report
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Metric
Ton
s
Accumulated Exports
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
U.S. All Wheat Export Destinations
(1,000 Metric Ton)
2016 All Wheat Exports by Country – FAS Online
Country 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Mexico 3,495.9 2,760.5 2,940.3 2,721.1 2,318.1 3,089.7Japan 3,512.1 3,544.0 2,674.3 3,120.5 2,434.0 2,819.7Philippines 2,038.6 1,965.2 2,013.1 2,337.9 2,118.4 2,729.2Nigeria 3,248.0 3,002.1 2,629.4 1,904.0 1,401.2 1,540.4South Korea 1,983.0 1,385.0 1,287.0 1,148.1 1,073.7 1,275.5Taiwan 887.9 1,038.1 980.0 1,001.6 1,033.7 1,049.1
Trans-Pacific Partnership 11
• Trade agreement including:– Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan,
Mexico, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam.
• Will be signed on March 8, 2018• Will give Australia and Canada a $65/mt.
reduction in tariff rates relative to the U.S.– $65/mt. = $1.77/bu.
USDA – WASDE – Jan. 12, 2017
U.S. All Wheat 2015/2016 2016/2017 (est.) 2017/2018 (Jan)
Planted A. 55.0 Mill. A. 50.1 Mill. A. 46.0 Mill. A.
Harvested A. 47.3 Mill. A. 43.9 Mill. A. 37.6 Mill. A.
Yield/Harvest A. 43.6 bu. 52.7 bu. 46.3 bu.
Begin Stocks 752 Mill. Bu. 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu.
Production 2,062 Mill. Bu. 2,309 Mill. Bu. 1,741 Mill. Bu.
Imports 113 Mill. Bu. 118 Mill. Bu. 155 Mill. Bu.
Total Supply 2,927 Mill. Bu. 3,402 Mill. Bu. 3,076 Mill. Bu.
Food 957 Mill. Bu. 949 Mill. Bu. 950 Mill. Bu.
Seed 67 Mill. Bu. 61 Mill. Bu. 62 Mill. Bu.
Feed & Residual 149 Mill. Bu. 157 Mill. Bu. 100 Mill. Bu.
Exports 778 Mill. Bu. 1,055 Mill. Bu. 975 Mill. Bu.
Total Use 1,951 Mill. Bu. 2,222 Mill. Bu. 2,087 Mill. Bu.
Ending Stocks 976 Mill. Bu. 1,181 Mill. Bu. 989 Mill. Bu.
U.S. All Wheat Supply & Demand Table
Ending Stocks remain large.
Stocks‐to‐Use Ratio is forecast to decrease from
53.2% to 47.4%
U.S. All Wheat – Total Prod. & Use(Billion Bushels)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Stocks‐to‐Use Ratio
Billion
Bushe
ls
Stocks‐to‐Use Total Production Total Use
Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
U.S. Spring Wheat – Total Prod. & Use(Million Bushels)
Jan. 12, 2017 WASDE Report & Wheat Yearbook Table 6
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
100
200
300
400
500
600
70020
00/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
Stocks‐to‐Use Ratio
Million Bu
shels
Stocks‐to‐Use Total Production Total Use
Mar. MGEX Wheat Pricing Points
DTN Prophet X – 02‐01‐18 pm
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