2016 Summer Preparedness
May, 2016
2
2016 Summer Preparedness
New York State
Electric System
Preparedness
3
Historical Actual, Normal, & Forecast – Summer Peak(MW)
Source: NYISO
4
2016 Summer Capability
2015 2016
Installed Generation Capacity 39,039 38,535
Demand Response – Special Case Resources (SCRs) 1,124 1,248
Total NY Control Area (NYCA) Internal Capability 40,163 39,783
Net Firm Purchase Imports 1,446 1,769
Total Capability 41,610 41,552
Source: NYISO
5
NYS Peak Demand and Installed Reserve Margin
Forecast
Demand Forecast 33,360 MW
17.5% Required Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) 5,838 MW
Total Capability Requirement 39,198 MW
Total Capability This Summer 41,552 MW
Surplus (Capability Above Requirement) 2,354 MW
Capability Versus Demand Forecast (%) 124.6%
Source: NYISO
6
Con Edison: Load Relief Programs
DLRP – Distribution Load Relief Program
CSRP – Commercial System Relief Program
DLC – Direct Load Control Program
232 229
209
175
200
232 236
0
45
8670
147137
194
38 35 35 36 31 32 28
-25
25
75
125
175
225
275
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Enro
llme
nt
(MW
)
DLRP
CSRP
DLC
7
Utility Transmission and Distribution Systems Preparedness
• Surveys - Discussed responses to preparedness survey with each utility
• Work - All planned reinforcements, inspections, and repairs are or will be
completed
• Spares - Each utility has adequate spare equipment on hand
• Planned Outages - Major generator and transmission planned outages require
NYISO approval, and are avoided during peak periods
• Meeting Demand - Each utility expects to meet peak demand with all lines and
generators in service
• Meeting Criteria - Each meets NPCC and NYSRC operating criteria
• Mitigation – NYISO and each utility have operating procedures to mitigate
reliability issues
8
2016 Summer Preparedness
New York State
Electric Portfolio, Volatility,
and Supply Price Outlook
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Co
eff
icie
nt
of
Vari
ati
on
NYISO Spot Market vs.Utility Full Service Residential
Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility (Statewide 12-month rolling average)
Portfolio Market
10
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Statewide - Mark to Market New Contract History
(% of Total Supply Costs)
New Contracts Cumulative New Contracts
11
68%
21%
3%8%
New York State Electric Supply PortfolioFull Service Residential
(Summer 2016)
Fixed Price Market Price
Unhedged Generation Index Price
12
NY West LBMP ($/MWH)
NY Hudson Valley LBMP ($/MWH)
New York City LBMP ($/MWH)
$29.84
$28.63
$30.53
$27.09
$28.34
$29.63
$32.93
$36.45
$38.61
Average Energy Price ComparisonSummer Season
NYMEX Futures June-September, 2015Spot Market June-September, 2015NYMEX Futures June-September, 2016
13
$4.15
$10.99
$8.25
$3.62
$5.30
$15.50
$8.50
$3.50
Long Island
NYC Capacity Zone
New Capacity Zone
Rest of State
Summer Strip Auction Capacity Prices
($ per kW-month)
2015 2016
14
0
1
2
3
4
0.6 0.8 0.6 0.70.4 0.1
0.41.0
1.0 0.6
0.30.4
1.0 1.0
0.50.6 1.0
0.70.9
1.3
1.6
1.40.5 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.1
0.02
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
Co
st
($ B
illio
ns)
Year
NYCA Capacity Costs 2006-2015
LI
NYC
NCZ
ROS
*Capacity computations performed by DPS Staff using published NYISO Capacity Auction results** All Capacity is priced at market prices; note that bilateral contract prices may differ from current market prices*** Costs jumped from 2012 through 2014 due to ~2,000MW in retirements and increases in peak load forecasts**** 2015 prices declined as there was nearly 1GW more supply vs the 2014 Gold Book.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
15
12.4 13.4 15.8
7.7 9.6 9.2
7.4 9.7
11.1
7.9
2.1
2.21.4
1.4
1.50.8
1.4
2.7
3.3
2.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
02468
101214161820
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gas P
rice (
$P
er
Thousa
nd C
ubic
Feet)
Co
st ($
Bill
ion
s)
Year
NYCA SUPPLY COSTS 2006-2015
Energy and Ancillary Capacity Gas Price
*Capacity computations performed by DPS Staff using published NYISO Capacity Auction results**Energy and Ancillary computation performed by DPS Staff using NYISO Monthly reports and 2016 NYISO Gold Book*** All Supply costs are priced at market; note that bilateral contract prices may differ from current market prices****Gas Price is EIA Average Gas price For New York Power Consumer