16 May 2014
PEACH Hall Pattaya Thailand
General Matter and Raw Materials Committee
Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC)
2014 Asia Olefins amp Aromatics Market
Review and Outlook
Peh Soo Hwee and Ong Sheau Ling
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Agenda
Asia ethylene and propylene price trends Jan-May 2014
Factors shaping the outlook for the Asia olefins markets
Challenges ahead for cracker operators in Asia
wwwiciscom
Asia olefins price trends from Jan-early May 2014
Highest since Aug
2008
Near 10-mth low
Source ICIS
bull NE Asia C2 at multi-
year high in Janrsquo14
as tight supply
offset soft Chinese
derivative demand
bull C3 down in Q1rsquo14
hurt by ample
supply slowdown in
end-user demand in
China
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs and impact on C2 margins
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
Short-term NE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Short-term SE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Agenda
Asia ethylene and propylene price trends Jan-May 2014
Factors shaping the outlook for the Asia olefins markets
Challenges ahead for cracker operators in Asia
wwwiciscom
Asia olefins price trends from Jan-early May 2014
Highest since Aug
2008
Near 10-mth low
Source ICIS
bull NE Asia C2 at multi-
year high in Janrsquo14
as tight supply
offset soft Chinese
derivative demand
bull C3 down in Q1rsquo14
hurt by ample
supply slowdown in
end-user demand in
China
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs and impact on C2 margins
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
Short-term NE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Short-term SE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
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Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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wwwiciscom
Agenda
Asia ethylene and propylene price trends Jan-May 2014
Factors shaping the outlook for the Asia olefins markets
Challenges ahead for cracker operators in Asia
wwwiciscom
Asia olefins price trends from Jan-early May 2014
Highest since Aug
2008
Near 10-mth low
Source ICIS
bull NE Asia C2 at multi-
year high in Janrsquo14
as tight supply
offset soft Chinese
derivative demand
bull C3 down in Q1rsquo14
hurt by ample
supply slowdown in
end-user demand in
China
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs and impact on C2 margins
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
Short-term NE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Short-term SE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
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Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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wwwiciscom
Asia olefins price trends from Jan-early May 2014
Highest since Aug
2008
Near 10-mth low
Source ICIS
bull NE Asia C2 at multi-
year high in Janrsquo14
as tight supply
offset soft Chinese
derivative demand
bull C3 down in Q1rsquo14
hurt by ample
supply slowdown in
end-user demand in
China
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs and impact on C2 margins
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
Short-term NE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Short-term SE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
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Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs and impact on C2 margins
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
Short-term NE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Short-term SE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
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In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom
Short-term NE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Short-term SE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Short-term SE Asia ethylene margins
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Production
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth driven by MTO cracker projects in China some
capacity losses in Japan
wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
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Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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wwwiciscom Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China
2013 World Propylene Production
wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
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Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom
At least 20 Asian crackers will be shut for maintenance in 2014 mostly in H1
wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom
2014 Asia propylene plant turnaround schedule
Month Company Location C3 unit Capacity Turnaround dates
Feb PTTGC Map Ta Phut Thailand PDH 100000 9 Feb to week of 24 Mar
Taekwang Industrial Ulsan South Korea PDH 300000 12 Feb to 10 Mar
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Marifu Japan FCC 50000 20 Feb to 1 Apr
Mar JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Mizushima Japan FCC (B) 90000 20 Mar to 19 May
JX Nippon Oil amp Energy Kawasaki Japan OCU 140000 25 Mar for around 50 days
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan No 1 RFCC 375000 29 Mar to early Jul
FPCC Mailiao Taiwan OCU 250000 27 Mar to end-May
Apr GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea FCC 250000 Mid-Apr to 10 May
May SK Energy Ulsan South Korea FCC No 1 150000 21 May to mid-Jul
Source Industry
Supply from Japan Taiwan and South Korea in Q2 rsquo14 likely
constrained by several maintenance shutdowns
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Cracker projects in Asia amp Middle East 2013-2016
Source Industry
Over 15m tonnes of new cracker capacities coming on stream in Asia amp Mideast
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
MTOMTP projects in China 2013-2015
Source Industry
Company Location C2 (lsquo000 tyr) C3 (lsquo000 tyr) Start up schedule
Ningbo Heyuan Chemical Zhenhai Zhejiang province 200 400 Feb 2013
Wison (Nanjing) Clean Energy Nanjing Jiangsu province 135 160 Sept 2013
Yunlin Energy Chemical Co Yulin Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2014
Shenhua Ningxia Coal Industry Ningdong Ningxia province 500 Jun 2014
Shandong Shenda Chemical Co Tenzhou Shandong province 200 200 Q3 2014
Shandong Yangmei Hengtong Chemical Linyi Shandong province 120 180 Sept 2014
Pucheng Clean Energy Chemical Pucheng Shaanxi province 300 400 Dec 2014
Zhengda (Changzhou) New Material Changzhou Jiangsu province 165 165 End-2014
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Golmud Qinghai province 160 170 Q4 2014
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co Ningdong Ningxia province 300 300 Q4 2014
Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Jiaxing Zhejiang province 300 300 Q1 2015
Shanxi Coking (Group) Co Hongdong Shaanxi province 300 300 Q2 2015
Mengda New Energy Chemical Base Development Co Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q2 2015
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical Shenmu Shaanxi province 300 300 Q4 2015
XinAo Group Erdos Inner Mongolia 300 300 Q4 2015
Coal-based methanol to be an important alternative feedstock to naphtha 15 projects to start up during
2013-2015
wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
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Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
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Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom
Propylene projects in Asia 2013-2016
Source Industry
Company Location Facility Completion schedule (C3 capacity in 000
tonnesyr)
2013 2014 2015 2016
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group Tianjin China PDH 600
Ningbo Haiyue New Materials Co Ningbo Zhejiang province China PDH 600 (mid-H2)
Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co Pinghu Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical Shaoxing Zhejiang province China PDH 450 (mid-H2)
Yantai Wanhua Group Yantai Shandong province China PDH 750 (year-
end)
Zhangjiagang Yangzijiang Petrochemical Zhangjiagang Jiangsu province China PDH 600 (year-
end) 600
Haiwei Group Hengshui Hebei province China PDH 500
Fujian Meide Petrochemical Fuqing Fujian province China PDH 660
SK Gas Advanced Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 600
Hyosung Petrochemical Ulsan South Korea PDH 300
Pertamina Cilcap Indonesia RFCC 115
Pertamina Balongan Indonesia ROPP 178
GS Caltex Yeosu South Korea RFCC 250
Asiarsquos C3 capacity growth to be driven by PDH projects in China up to 285m tonnesyear to
start up in 2014
wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
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Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom
Drivers behind Asia Olefins Market Outlook
Three main areas
Upstream naphtha costs
Supply side factors
Demand side factors
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
2013 World Ethylene Consumption
Source ICIS Consulting
NE Asia made up 26 of global demand totalling 13378m tonnes in
2013 driven by strong downstream expansions in China
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Source ICIS Consulting
Backed by strong downstream growth in China NE Asia made up 38 of global
demand totalling 8571m tonnes in 2013
2013 World Propylene Consumption
wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
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Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom
China PEPP capacity to grow at slower pace from 2015
10000 tonnesyr
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LDPE HDPE LLDPE PE PP Granule
Source ICIS Chemease
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Ethylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity (lsquo000 tonnesyr) Start up schedule
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea EVALDPE 240 Feb 2014
USI Corp Kaohsiung Taiwan EVALDPE 2x45 Q4 2015
FPC Ningbo Zhejiang province China EVA 72 (first phase) Q4 2014
Saudi International Petrochemical Jubail Industrial City Saudi Arabia EVALDPE 200 Apr 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea MLLDPEelastomer
plastomer 230 (MLLDPE) May 2014
SK Global Chemical Ulsan South Korea SM 300 Apr 2014
Abel Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China SM 500 End 2014
Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Heze Shandong province China SM 200 End 2014
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Heze Shandong province China SM 100 End 2014
Leasty Chemical Jiangyin Jiangsu province China SM 500 2015
Oxiranchem Yangzhou Yangzhou Jiangsu province China EO 200 Q4 2014Q1 2015
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China EO 200 End-2015
Korea Petrochemical Industry Onsan South Korea EOEG 200 (EG) Oct 2014
Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Jiaxing Zhejiang province China EOEG 380 Early 2015
PT Asahimas Chemical Cilegon Baten province Indonesia PVC 250 End 2015
Ningxia Younglight Energy Chemical Yinchuan Ningxia province VAM 450 Q2 2014
Exports from South Korea to fall from 2014 due to new domestic downstream
capacity
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Propylene downstream projects 2014-2015
Source Industry
Company Location Product Capacity
(lsquo000 tonnesyr)
Start up schedule
Chang Chun Petrochemical Panjin Liaoning province China ECH 48 2014
Kingboard Chemical Huizhou Guangdong province
China Phenolacetone 7545 Q2 2014
Formosa Chemicals amp Fibre Corp (FCFC)
Ningbo Zhejiang province China Phenolacetone 300180 Early Q4 2014
Kumho Yeosu South China Phenolacetone 300180 H2 2015
PTT Phenol Map Tap Phut Thailand Phenolacetone 250155 Q4 2015
Wanzhou Petrochemical Nantong Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014 (phase 1)
BASF-YPC Nanjing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q2 2014
Zhejiang Satellite Pinghu Zhejiang province AA 320 H1 2014 (phase 1 started up in Q1)
Jiangsu Sanmu Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Mid-H2 2014
Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) Ningbo Zhejiang province China AA 160 Q3 2014
Jiangsu Jurong Chemical Taixing Jiangsu province China AA 160 Q4 2014Q12015
Shanghai Huayi Shanghai China AA 320 Partial start up in 2015
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China AA 300 Q4 2014
Nippon Shokubai Himeiji Japan AA 80 H2 2014
Showa DenkoToa Gosei Oita Japan AA 80 Q2 2014
Jishen Chemical Jilin Jinlin province China PO 300 One of three lines started up in Q1 2014
Shandong Sanyue Chemical Binzhou Shandong province PO 80 Q2 2014
Yantai Wanhua Yantai Shandong province China PO 240 End 2014early 2015
Nanjing Jinling Huntsman New Materials
Nanjing Jiangsu province China PO 240 2015
Luxi Petrochemical Liaocheng Shandong province
China 2-EH 150 2014
Chinarsquos C3 downstream markets to see continued strong expansion particularly in
acrylic acid (AA) and phenol sectors
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Asia cracker operators face challenging 2014
bull Heavy turnaround season in Asia and a structurally tighter balance
in South Korea could continue to lend support to olefins markets
bull In the longer term new olefin capacities balanced somewhat by
demand from China South Korea
bull Downstream markets in China face uncertainty amid a weak
economic climate
bull More olefins and downstream projects may face delays
bull Volatility in upstream naphtha and crude markets as well as the
global economic outlook to weigh on olefins and derivatives
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Benzene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Key price driver ndash change in Asiarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-
2016
bull Shift of trade flow for South Korean and Japanese origins heading to
either the US or China
Toluene
bull 2013-Q1 2014 market review
bull Price drivers ndash TDP margin paraxylene (PX) price correlation
Chinarsquos supply-demand balance in 2011-2014
Market outlook ndash price trend trade flow changes
Agenda
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
BENZENE (BZ)
US
EU
China
South
Korea
Japan
ME
Net exporters South Korea Japan Thailand India Iran
Net importers China Taiwan Singapore Indonesia GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
Thailand
Singapore
Taiwan
Import 885kt
Export 31kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore
Import 464kt
Export 68kt
Import 54kt
Export 1395m t
Import
121kt
Export
767kt
Import 709kt India
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins) 640kt
Import (South Korean
origin) 102kt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
US
Dt
on
ne
Europe - CIF ARA US - FOB USG Asia - FOB Korea
Asiarsquos BZ hit a 45-week high in mid-Jan and
plunged to a four-month low in mid-Mar
Source ICIS
Four-month
low
45-week high
Historical peak
in end 2012 Brief recovery
11-week low
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Na
me
pla
te c
ap
ac
ity (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
S Korea
Japan
China
Growth ()
Asiarsquos BZ capacity above 31m tonnes in 2014
China South Korea Japan at 75 of total
Source market
An
nu
al g
row
th ra
te (
)
exclude
Chinarsquos coal-based
BZ capacities in
2011-2012 45-5m ta
2013-2016 55-6m ta
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Asia amp Mideast new BZ capacities at 2805m
tonnes in 2014 Company Location Benzene (ktyear) Scheduled date
Sinopec Hainan Yangpu China 150 Trial run on 9 Dec 2013 27 Dec 2013
on-spec 2 Jan 80-90
Qingdao Lidong Qingdao China 30 (expansion) End-Jan 2014
PetroChina Sichuan China 370 12 Mar 2014
Saudi Aramco Total Refining and
Petrochemical (Satorp) Al Jubail KSA 140 Mid-Mar 2014 (first cargo)
Sinochem Quanzhou China 150 End Apr 2014
ONGC Mangalore Petrochemical
Ltd (OMPL) Mangalore India 270 End Jun or Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Ulsan Aromatics Ulsan South Korea 540 1st week June 2014 (first cargo)
Jurong Aromatics Corp (JAC) Jurong Island
Singapore 400 H2 July 2014 (first cargo)
Samsung Total Daesan South Korea 450 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
SKGC Incheon South Korea 455 1st week Jul 2014 (first cargo)
Zhongjin Ningbo China 400 2015
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) Jamnagar India 500 H2 2015
Petro Rabigh II Rabigh KSA 170 End 2015 - H1 2016
Saudi Aramco Ras Tanura KSA 285 2016
GSShellTaiyo Yeosu South Korea 100 2016-2017
Saudi Aramco Jazan KSA 85 2017 Source Industry sources
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
55
15
10
11 5 4
49
17
12
13
6 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
Half of Asiarsquos BZ used in SM followed by phenol
Downstream average operating rates to slip
Source market
2013
at 309m
tonnes
2016 at 3675m
tonnes
ltd
ow
nstre
am
op
era
ting
rate
sgt
() N
am
ep
late
ca
pa
cit
y (
m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
Asiarsquos BZ production to outstrip demand despite
estimated exports at 14m-15m tyear in 2014-2016
Source market
lto
pe
ratin
g ra
tes
gt (
)
inclusive of
Chinarsquos
coal-based
BZ
production
in
2011-2012
15-16m ta
2013-2016
2m ta
run rates at
around 50
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E) 2015 (E) 2016 (E)
(m t
on
ne
sy
ea
r)
Production Demand (from 6 downstreams) ltBZ run ratesgt
exports
excess production
bull BZ demand from vast downstream capacity additions in 2014-2016 is estimated to be
reduced by lower average run rates of 715-728 lt 2011-2013rsquos level at 747-773
bull High BZ run rates at 86-875 is estimated for 2014-2016 gt 2011-2013rsquos level of 84-86
bull Supply will outstrip demand in 2014-2016 despite an estimated Asiarsquos overall exports
staying at 14m-15 m tonnesyear In 2011-2013 Asia BZ is balanced by exports at 1m-12 m
tonnesyear
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Dt
on
ne
BZ- Naphtha spread BZ FOB Korea Naphtha CFR Japan
Asiarsquos BZ-naphtha spread to hover at around
$300tonne for H2 2014
Source ICIS
Pric
e d
iffere
nce
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Ave~ $186t Ave~ $160t
Ave~ $257t
Ave~ $371t
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
ton
ne
sm
on
th
FOB Korea-US Gulf price gap South Korea Japan
S Korea Japanrsquos BZ exports to the US resume
in 2014 volumes peaked in Mar 2014
Source customs ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
~ 761kta 634ktmth
~ 636kta 530ktmth
Breakeven level
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000J
an
12
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Others (PhilippinesIndonesia Turkey)
Middle East
India
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
FOB Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
China BZ imports sharply declined into 2014 on
lower-priced domestic lots
Source China customs
~438kta 365ktmth ~885kta 738ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
TOLUENE (TOL)
US
EU
Net exporters South Korea Japan Singapore Thailand Taiwan
Net importers China India Indonesia Vietnam GCC
Figures for the year of 2013
China ME
South
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Thailand India
Africa
US
Import (Japan
South Korean
origins 126kt
Import 812kt
Export 08kt
Taiwan
Import 21kt
Export 327kt
Import 69kt
Export 327kt
Source customs KITA IE Singapore industry sources
Import
(Kandla port)
174kt
Import 24kt
Export 325kt
Import 105kt
Export 1063m t
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
US
Dt
on
ne
TDP spread (average of PX-TOL and BZ-TOL) TOL FOB Korea PX CFR China
Asiarsquos TOL tracks downstream PX closely in 2014
TDP run rates cut from Mar 2014 on eroded margins
Source ICIS
TD
P s
pre
ad
(US
Dto
nn
e)
Breakeven level
CF = 083
CF = 091 CF = 086 CF = 088
CF = correlation factor
CF = 096
Historical peak
in end 2012 Six-month
high
Nine-month
high
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
42
12
46
45
13
42
Chinarsquos downstream distribution
TDPSTDPHDA
Petrochemical products
Others (solvent gasolineblending etc)
China stays as a net TOL importer and feeds primarily
to TDP followed by solvent gasoline blending
Source ICIS
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
-
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2011 2012 2013 2014 (E)
kil
oto
nn
es
Production Demand Self-sufficiency ()
0
2011
2013
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ja
n1
2
Ma
r1
2
Ma
y1
2
Ju
l1
2
Se
p1
2
No
v1
2
Ja
n1
3
Ma
r1
3
Ma
y1
3
Ju
l1
3
Se
p1
3
No
v1
3
Ja
n1
4
Ma
r1
4
ton
ne
sm
on
th
Europe
US
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Equivalent import parityfrom east China ex-tank
FOB Korea
China imports increased in early 2014 on slipping
inventories forward imports will subject to demand
Source China customs
~660kta 55ktmth ~812kta 68ktmth
US
Dto
nn
e
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
nto
rie
s (
kil
oto
nn
es
)
south China
east China
Chinarsquos TL inventories rose above 150kt post-Lunar
New Year but declined beginning Apr
Source ICIS
US
Dto
nn
e
Ave~ 181kt
Ave~ 9815kt Ave~ 73kt
Ave~ 138kt
Typical stock level
Healthy
consumption
wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom Source Industry sources
tonnesyear
PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia
adding 402m tonnes in Q2-Q3 2014
wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
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wwwiciscom
Asiarsquos TOL to track weak PX on vast expansions in
2014 BZ maybe supported despite capacity additions
BZ factors TOL factors
- High run rates of existing aromatics units
- May lower TDP run rates or shut TDP units on
squeezed PX margins
- 2805m t of new BZ capacities in Jun-Jul
BZ prices
TOL prices - Absence of Chinese BZ import window
- Lower-than expected BZ downstream demand
- 402m t of new PX capacities in Jun-Jul
BZTOL factors
- Asia-US BZ arbitrage remains open
- Opportunistic Asia-EU BZ arbitrage opens
- Overall light Asian aromatics shutdown schedule
- Low Chinese domestic BZ stock levels
- BZ downstream post-turnaround schedule
for phenol and SM to end in H2 May-Jun
- Less US BZ import demand on recent hefty
Asian European arrivals
- Asia summer blending season approaches by end Q2
- Overall TDP run rates high despite PX cuts
- Tighter regulation to issue credit terms in
China gloomy macroeconomics
- Competitively-priced alternative blending components
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
Conclusion
bull Operating rates of BZ units to stay high while downstream maybe
supressed
bull A change in trade flow of Asian BZ exports to ship to China instead of the
US
bull Limited BZ price upside in H2 2014
bull Less spot TOL sales volume from South Korea
bull Poor solvent and gasoline blending in H2 2014
bull TOL FOB Korea prices may stay high amid low CFR Asia levels
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt
wwwiciscom
ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts
Pricing information Reliable chemical price assessments and analyses including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently
Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global petrochemical markets Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns
Supply and demand data Access data on petrochemical supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs
In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence
Request your free sample price report today gtgt
Request your free trial today gtgt
Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt
Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt