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2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and
Economic Statement November 26, 2013
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Overview
• Turning the corner • Challenges remain
• Fastest growing province • Floods • Bitumen bubble is back
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Booming Population
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Flood Costs
• June 24 - Floods • June 27 - $1 B commitment • November 25 - $764 M
supplementary estimate
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Economic Strength
• Solid foundation • Strong growth • Net asset position
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Economic Strength
19.8%
14.4%
10.8%
32.9%
28.2%
24.3%
Real GDP
Employment
Population
Alberta Canada
Growth in select indicators 2002-2012
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Employment and Migration
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
40
50
2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
thousands Employment Growth (q/q)
Net Migration
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Q2 - Actual Results
Operational Plan 6 Month Estimate
Q2 Actual
• Operational Revenue • Operational Expense • Disaster/Emergency Assistance • Operational Deficit/Surplus
$19 B $19 B $15 M $58 M deficit
$20.4 B $19.3 B $ 458 M $1.1 B surplus
Fiscal year end operational balance range: $250 M surplus to $250 M deficit
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Oil Price Differential
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
$
WTI WCS
$40 $10
$15
$30
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Market Access
Market access the biggest factor affecting oil revenue • Opening new markets • Washington D.C. visits • Asia • Canadian Energy Strategy
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Flood Costs
Flood spending forecast • $4.3 B this year • $3.1 B federal government • $1.2 B Alberta government
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Flood Costs
$625 M
$139 M Cash cards, First Nations housing,purchasing homes in floodway,Hand-up Plan for small business,etc.
Roads, bridges, erosion repair,etc.
$764 M for initial requirement to support Albertans, businesses and communities.
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Revised Budget Forecast
*Budget Balance Sheet Forecast *Revised Balance Sheet Forecast Contingency Account $0.7 B Heritage Fund and other funds $18.5 B Net Assets $42.3 B *at March 31, 2014
$2.6 B - $18.5 B $42.5 B
Budget Estimate - Capital Plan Revised Capital Plan Forecast Capital Plan Spending $5.2 B $5.7 B
Budget Estimate - Operational Plan Revised Operational Forecast Operational Revenue $37.7 B Operational Expense $38.1 B Operational Deficit $451 M
$42.7 B $42.7 B Operational Surplus $15 M
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Questions
www.finance.alberta.ca
twitter.com/AB_TB_Finance