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Macroeconomic Policy & The Financial Markets
Welcome
Probity Advisors, Inc. 2012 Winter Luncheon
1
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% of Population of Work Force Age (20-64)
Morefavorable to
economic growth
Lessfavorable to
economic growth
1950
% o
f P
op
ula
tio
n o
f R
etir
emen
t A
ge
(65+
)
2050
Worldwide Demographic Shifts1950 - 2050
2
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5250 565442 44 46 4840 6658 60 6462
AfricaAsia
EU CountriesNorth America
EuropeOceania
Russian FederationSouth America
EuropeChina
India
Japan
Brazil
United States
Greece Italy
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% of Population of Work Force Age (20-64)
Morefavorable to
economic growth
Lessfavorable to
economic growth
1950
% o
f P
op
ula
tio
n o
f R
etir
emen
t A
ge
(65+
)
2050
Worldwide Demographic Shifts1950 - 2050
3
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5250 565442 44 46 4840 6658 60 6462
AfricaAsia
EU CountriesNorth America
EuropeOceania
Russian FederationSouth America
EuropeChina
India
Japan
Brazil
United States
Greece Italy
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5
10
20
25
30
35
Europe
China
India
Japan
BrazilUnited States
Greece
Italy
Worldwide Demographic Shifts1950 - 2050
% o
f P
op
ula
tio
n o
f R
etir
emen
t A
ge
(65+
)
% of Population of Work Force Age (20-64)
5250 565442 44 46 4840 6658 60 6462
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2050 1950
4AfricaAsia
EU CountriesNorth America
EuropeOceania
Russian FederationSouth America
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Allocation of Federal Spending 1950 to 2015
5
19501952
19541956
19581960
19621964
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
General GovernmentTransportationProtectionDefenseEducationInterestHealth CarePensionsWelfare
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Macroeconomic Policy & The Financial Markets
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Ideas Changing the World
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Sources: 2009 and 2010 Social Security and Medicare Trustees’ Reports.
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Source: Courtney Collins and Andrew J. Rettenmaier, “How Health Reform Affects Current and Future Retirees,” NCPA Policy Report No. 333, May 11, 2011.
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National Center for Policy Analysis
Private Enterprise Research Center Texas A&M University
General Revenue Transfers toSocial Security and Medicare
(as a % of income taxes)
Source: 2009 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports and author’s estimates. Federal income taxes are estimated to be 10.67% of GDP which is the 50 year (1959-2008) average.
13.8 13.3
27.3
49.2
61.267.1
74.3
82.1
89.3
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Ideas Changing the World