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Town of Atherton2009 Parcel Tax Feasibility SurveyJune 2009
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June 2009
Overview and Research Objectives
Conduct a survey of voters to understand feasibility of continuingexpiring parcel tax, including:
Optimal tax rate
Optimal measure duration
Optimal election
Assess voter priorities vis--vis funding needs;
Test influence of supporting and opposing arguments on potential
voter support.
Identify any differences in voter support due to demographic
and/or voter behavioral characteristics
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June 2009
Methodology Overview
Data Collection Telephone Interviewing
Universe Approximately 2,200 Atherton voters
who are estimated to be likely voters in
the November 2009 election, with
adjustment for off-year election for a
tax measure
Fielding Dates June 3 to 14, 2009
Interview Length 15 minutes
Sample Size 300
Margin of Error 5.3%
Note: The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of the likely voters in the Town of Athert on in terms of their
gender, age, political party type, and the actual proportion of respondents on record as homeowners.
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June 2009
Initial Ballot Test
To continue providing funding for
Town general purposes, such as, but
not limited to,
[RANDOMIZE A THROUGH D]
A. police and public safety services
B. park facility maintenance and
improvements
C. street and sidewalk
maintenance and improvements;
and
D. storm drain construction and
maintenance
Shall an ordinance be adopted to
continue the existing Town of
Atherton Parcel Tax, plus a 10
percent increase?
Probably no
13%
Definitely no
19%
DK/NA9%
Definitely yes30%
Probably yes29%
Total Support59%
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June 2009
Initial Ballot TestDifferences in Election Timing
* These are registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2009 election, but have been adjusted for turnout in an off-year election for a tax measure.
Likely Off-YearTax Voters*
Likely November2009 Voters
Likely Mail Ballot2010 Voters
Likely June 2010Voters
Sample size 300 201 220 254
Margin of error + 5.3% + 6.5% + 6.3% + 5.8%
Definitely Yes 30% 37% 36% 32%
Probably Yes 29% 27% 27% 29%
Probably No 13% 10% 11% 13%
Definitely No 19% 16% 16% 17%
DK/NA 9% 11% 10% 10%
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June 2009
Support for Different Rates of Tax Increases
17%25%
39%
23%
30%
26%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
15% increase 10% increase 5% increase
Probably yes
Definitely yes
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June 2009
Support for Different Tax IncreasesVarious Dwelling Sizes
Less than acre(n = 13)
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA
15% increase to $518 per year 17% 25% 15% 38% 5%
10% increase to $495 per year 29% 22% 6% 43% 0%
5% increase to $473 per year 42% 15% 0% 43% 0%
Between and acre(n = 42)
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA
15% increase to $656 per year 10% 15% 25% 42% 8%
10% increase to $627 per year 17% 34% 15% 30% 5%
5% increase to $599 per year 39% 11% 13% 30% 7%
Between acre and 2 acres(n = 243)
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA
15% increase to $863 per year 18% 24% 18% 29% 11%
10% increase to $825 per year 25% 30% 12% 22% 10%
5% increase to $788 per year 38% 29% 9% 18% 7%
* There were too few responses to report support at various tax increases for respondents with a dwelling size of 2 acres or more.
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June 2009
Support for Continuation without Increase
Probably no6%
Definitely no13%
DK/NA
12%
Definitely yes48%
Probably yes21%
Total Support69%
One alternative to this measurewould be simply to continue the
existing parcel tax, which is due
to expire in June 2010, without
an increase. This will allow the
Town to continue funding some,
but not all, of the current and
planned resident services.
If the election were held today,
would you vote yes or no on
this measure?
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June 2009
Support for Renewal without IncreaseDifferences in Election Timing
* These are registered voters, who are likely to vote in the November 2009 election, but have been adjusted for turnout in an off-year election for a tax measure.
Likely Off-YearTax Voters*
Likely November2009 Voters
Likely Mail Ballot2010 Voters
Likely June 2010Voters
Sample size 300 201 220 254Margin of error + 5.3% + 6.5% + 6.3% + 5.8%
Definitely Yes 48% 51% 52% 51%
Probably Yes 21% 18% 18% 20%
Probably No 6% 5% 5% 6%
Definitely No 13% 14% 14% 13%
DK/NA 12% 12% 11% 10%
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June 2009
Support for Different Durations
34% 36% 36% 36%38%
24% 19% 20%24%
26%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Ongoing 12 years 9 years 7 years 5 years
Probably yes
Definitely yes
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June 2009
Measure Features
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. The responses were recoded to calculate mean scores:
Much More Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0, Somewhat Less Likely = -1, and Much Less Likely = -2.
SomewhatLess Likely
SomewhatMore Likely
MuchMoreLikely
No Effect
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June 2009
Positive Arguments I
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. The responses were recoded to calculate mean score s: Much More
Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0.
No Effect SomewhatMore Likely
Much MoreLikely
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June 2009
Positive Arguments II
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. The responses were recoded to calculate mean score s: Much More
Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0.
No Effect SomewhatMore Likely
MuchMoreLikely
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June 2009
Negative Arguments
Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes. The responses were recoded to calculate mean score s: Much More
Likely = +2, Somewhat More Likely = +1, and No Effect = 0.
NoEffect
SomewhatMore Likely
Much MoreLikely
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June 2009
Final Ballot Test
To continue providing funding for
Town general purposes, such as, but
not limited to,
[HOLD RANDOMIZATION FROM QUESTION 1]
A. police and public safety services
B. park facility maintenance and
improvements
C. street and sidewalk
maintenance and improvements;
and
D. storm drain construction and
maintenance
Shall an ordinance be adopted to
continue the existing Town of
Atherton Parcel Tax, plus a 10
percent increase?
0% 50% 100%
Final Ballot Test
Initial Ballot Test
26%
30%
25%
29%
15%
13%
25%
19%
9%
9%
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no
Definitely no DK/NA
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June 2009
Final Ballot TestDifferences in Election Timing
Likely Off-YearTax Voters*
Likely November2009 Voters
Likely Mail Ballot2010 Voters
Likely June 2010Voters
Sample size 300 201 220 254Margin of error + 5.3% + 6.5% + 6.3% + 5.8%
Definitely Yes 26% 33% 30% 30%
Probably Yes 25% 23% 24% 23%
Probably No 15% 11% 13% 14%
Definitely No 25% 21% 22% 22%
DK/NA 9% 12% 11% 11%
* These are registered voters, who are likely to vote in the November 2009 election, but have been adjusted for turnout in an off-year election for a tax measure.
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June 2009
Voter Support Classification
The above classification is based on responses to the initial and final ballot questions: Voters classified under the Strong Support group supported themeasure in both ballot tests, while their Strong Opposition counterparts opposed the measure in both tests, or declined to state an opinion in the final test.
Those classified under Potential Support changed their minds about support between the initial and final ballot tests.
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June 2009
Voter Support ClassificationDifferences in Election Timing
* These are registered voters, who are likely to vote in the November 2009 election, but have been adjusted for turnout in an off-year election for a tax measure.
Likely Off-YearTax Voters*
Likely November2009 Voters
Likely Mail Ballot2010 Voters
Likely June 2010Voters
Sample size 300 201 220 254
Margin of error + 5.3% + 6.5% + 6.3% + 5.8%
Strong Support 27% 35% 32% 30%
Potential Support 42% 39% 41% 40%
Strong Opposition 31% 26% 27% 29%
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June 2009
Summary and Recommendations I
Survey found continuing parcel tax with no increase to be a viable option.
69 percent total support (48% definite and 21% probable), which could
be as low as 64 percent or as high as 74 percent, with a 5-percent
margin of error.
Parcel tax continuation plus 10 percent increase did not get sufficient
support (59% and 51% in initial and final ballot tests, respectively). Lowest tested annual increase of 5 percent did not get the requisite
two-thirds support, at 65 percent (39% definite ad 26% probable),
which could be as low as 60 percent or as high as 70 percent.
Optimal duration for the parcel tax would be no more than 5 years, and
would also depend on the annual tax rate.
Total support for 5 years was at 64 percent, which could be as low as
59 percent or as high as 69 percent.
November 2009 is a viable election for a no-increase renewal.
Similar support levels to a mail ballot 2010 or June 2010 election.
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June 2009
Summary and Recommendations II
Sizeable potential support segment (42%) suggests need for votereducation about Towns funding needs.
Substantial communications are needed to educate voters about funding
needs during the pre-electoral phase AND by an independent campaign
committee after the measure has been placed on the ballot.
Funding needs of highest priority to Atherton voters:
Maintaining the Towns emergency response operations
Maintaining neighborhood police patrols
Repairing and constructing streets
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June 2009
Summary and Recommendations III
Benefits of the measure most salient to Atherton voters:
This measure is not a new tax, but simply the continuation of an
existing parcel tax to fund critical town services
Without the money from this measure, the Town's public works budget
to maintain streets, sidewalks, storm drains and park facilities will be
cut by over 30 percent
Funding from this measure is needed to improve streets, many of
which are below standard
Funding from this measure effectively enables every police car to be a
mobile emergency response center
The measure allows the Town to qualify for matching funds to install
traffic lights at Encinal and Middlefield, a joint project with the City of
Menlo Park
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Town of Atherton2009 Parcel Tax Feasibility SurveyJune 2009