Download - 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z
![Page 1: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Presenter’s Profile
Page 1
Michel Dominik Obrist
Born 05.04.1989
PhD Student at Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in Villigen (CH)
Laboratory for Energy System Analysis (LEA)
Energy Economics Group
Contact: [email protected]
Education:
Sep 09 – Sep 12: BSc in Mechanical Engineering
University of Applied Sciences, Windisch (CH)
Sep 16 – Sep 18: MSc in Sustainable Energy
Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (DK)
![Page 2: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN
Long-term energy and emission pathways for the Swiss industry
Michel Dominik Obrist :: PhD Student :: Paul Scherrer Institut
PhD Project :: Frontiers in Energy Research :: 28.04.2020
![Page 3: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• Swiss industry produces products we use every day
• Most important industries in Switzerland:
Swiss industry in a nutshell
Page 3
Pharmaceutical Machinery Food
Medical technologyPrecision instrumentsWatches
![Page 4: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• Swiss GDP: 679.3 BCHF[1]
• 74% of Swiss GDP is generated by the service sector and 25% by industry[1]
• 1.0 Mio employees are working in the Swiss industry (full time equivalent)[2]
Importance of industry for Switzerland
Page 4
[1] Swiss Federal Departement of Foreign Affairs FDFA, Swiss Economy – Facts and Figures[2] Swiss Federal Statistical Office, Full-time job equivalent per sector
![Page 5: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• Swiss final energy consumption in 2015 by sector[1]
Final energy consumption in industry
Page 5
18%
28%
17%
36%Industry
Residential
Service
Transport
Agriculture
838 PJ
[1] Swiss Federal Office of Energy SFOE, Schweizerische Gesamtenergiestatistik
![Page 6: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
• Swiss direct CO2 emissions in 2015[1] without indirect emissions associated to
purchased electricity and heat
CO2 emissions in Swiss industry
Page 6
18%
21%
10%
38%
12%
Industry
Residential
Services
Transport w/o int. aviation
International aviation
Agriculture
Energy related12%
Process related5%
40 Mt
[1] United Nations Climate Change UNFCCC, Inventory 2015 Switzerland
![Page 7: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
• Energy strategy 2050 indicative targets
Energy reduction per capita of 43% from 2000 levels
Electricity reduction per capita of 13% until 2035 compared to 2000 levels
• Paris agreement
Pursue efforts to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial levels
Swiss energy policy
Page 7
Main research question:
How can the climate and energy policy goals be reached and what are the
implications for the Swiss industry sector?
![Page 8: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
• Swiss parliament is debating about the revision of the CO2 regulation after 2020
• Communication from BAFU (15.04.2020)[1]:
GHG emissions from 1990 until 2018:
Overall 14% reduction to 46.4 Mt CO2-eq
Industry 14% reduction to 11.2 Mt CO2-eq
Goal until 2020 (compared to 1990):
Overall 20% reduction
Industry 15% reduction
Current significance
Page 8
[1] Schweizer Treibhausgasemissionen 2018 nur leicht gesunken, BAFU, 15.04.2020
![Page 9: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Agenda
Page 9
Energy System Models
Focus: Cement industryBackground
Applied Methodology
Preliminary results
Key messages
Introduction
Methodology
ESM for Industry
Research gapPhD ProjectObjectives
Methodology
![Page 10: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Types of Energy System Models[1]
Page 10
Macro economic models
(Energy is a sub-sector)
Energy systems models
(Cross sectoral interactions)
Electricity models
Sectoral models
(e.g. building energy model)
Detailed technology and infrastructure depiction, energy resources supplies, …
Detailed technology characterisation, high intertemporal disaggregation
Technology specific, building stocks, social and behavioural characteristics, etc.
Entire economy (labour, capital, non energy materials)
• Highly simplified energy sector
• Technologies are not always explicit
• No interaction with economy (partial equilibrium)
• Aggregated end use sectors /simplified load curve
• No cross sectoral interaction
• No resource competition
• Exogenous demand assumptions
[1] Kannan, R. and H. Turton (2013). A long-term electricity dispatch model with the TIMES framework, Environment Modeling
and Assessment, 18 (3): 325-343, DOI: 10.1007/s10666-012-9346-y
![Page 11: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Energy System Models
Page 11
![Page 12: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
STEM
Page 12
![Page 13: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Cost minimization
Page 13
• The model aims to supply energy services at minimum global cost by making
decisions on:
Investment and operation
Primary energy supply
Energy trade
![Page 14: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Objective function
Page 14
𝑀𝑖𝑛 𝑐 ∙ 𝑋
𝑠. 𝑡.
𝑘
𝑉𝐴𝑅_𝐴𝐶𝑇𝑘,𝑖(𝑡) ≥ 𝐷𝑀𝑖 𝑡 𝑖 = 1, . . , 𝐼; 𝑡 = 1, . . , 𝑇
𝐵 ∙ 𝑋 ≥ 𝑏
c: cost vector
X: decision variables
DM: demand
k: process
i: demand categories
t: time slices
B: constraint vector
b: constraint RHS
Cost vector
Includes all costs eg. investment costs, variable
costs, import/export costs, taxes
Decision variables
eg. new capacity addition, capacity retirement,
process activity
Demand satisfaction
Demand for i must be satisfied at all times by the
process activity (decision variable) of process all
processes k that produce i
Constraints
Numerous constraints eg. ramp up constrains on
activity, conservation of investment, use of
capacity, user constraints
![Page 15: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Model horizon
Page 15
[1] IEA-ETSAP, Documentation for the TIMES Model, July 2016
![Page 16: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Agenda
Page 16
Energy System Models
Focus: Cement industryBackground
Applied Methodology
Preliminary results
Key messages
Introduction
Methodology
ESM for Industry
Research gapPhD ProjectObjectives
Methodology
![Page 17: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
• How can the climate and energy policy goals be reached and what are the
implications for the Swiss industry sector?
• How can new energy technologies in industry can contribute to reduce CO2
emissions and improve energy efficiency?
• What is the impact of energy policy and energy price scenarios for the energy
demand of the industry?
• What are the implications to the broader energy system in terms of costs?
Research objectives
Page 17
![Page 18: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
• Previous studies focused on potentials for specific technologies or energy
efficiency improvements and CO2 abatement on a process level
• Shortcomings:
Do not investigate transformation pathways to reach climate policy goals
No detailed long-term scenario analysis
Neglects interaction with the rest of the energy sector
• Scenario analysis with energy system models (for example STEM) contributed to
the understanding of energy technology development and identified policy
strategies to reach the climate goals
• Shortcomings:
No investigation of the industry sector on a production process level
Very general view on technology developments and process improvements
Research gap
Page 18
![Page 19: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Research gap
Page 19
• STEM is expanded with an advanced industry module with a new modelling
technique
Includes production process and product flows
Gives possibilities to include process improvements and efficiency
improvements of single process steps
Enables options to include process related emissions
Allows a more detailed and accurate analysis
![Page 20: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• Previous modelling technique
Methodology – Modelling technique
Page 20
Space heat
Process heat
Mechanical drives
Lighting
Others
Model
Electricity
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
Waste
Biomass
Hydrogen
Wood pellets
Energy carrierEnergy service
demand
![Page 21: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
• Previous modelling technique
Methodology – Modelling technique
Page 21
Space heat
Process heat
Mechanical drives
Lighting
Others
Electricity
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
Waste
Biomass
Hydrogen
Wood pellets
Energy carrierEnergy service
demand
![Page 22: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Methodology – Modelling technique
Page 22
Model
Elec
tric
ity
Co
al
Nat
ura
l gas Oil
Was
te
Bio
mas
s
Hyd
roge
n
Wo
od
pel
lets
Ener
gy c
arri
er
Product demand
Cement
Sem
ifin
ish
ed
Base products
Limestone
Gypsum
Burnt shale
Cement
Mill
ed li
mes
ton
e
Raw
lim
esto
ne
Ho
t cl
inke
r
Clin
ker
Ble
nd
ed c
emen
t
Gri
nd
ed c
emen
t
Byproducts
Process CO2
Energy CO2
Captured CO2
![Page 23: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Methodology – Modelling technique
Page 23
Elec
tric
ity
Co
al
Nat
ura
l gas Oil
Was
te
Bio
mas
s
Hyd
roge
n
Wo
od
pel
lets
Ener
gy c
arri
er
Product demand
Cement
Sem
ifin
ish
ed
Base products
Limestone
Gypsum
Burnt shale
Cement
Mill
ed li
mes
ton
e
Raw
lim
esto
ne
Ho
t cl
inke
r
Clin
ker
Ble
nd
ed c
emen
t
Gri
nd
ed c
emen
t
Byproducts
Process CO2
Energy CO2
Captured CO2
![Page 24: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Methodology
Page 24
![Page 25: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
PhD plan
Page 25
![Page 26: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Agenda
Page 26
Energy System Models
Focus: Cement industryBackground
Applied Methodology
Preliminary results
Key messages
Introduction
Methodology
ESM for Industry
Research gapPhD ProjectObjectives
Methodology
![Page 27: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
“Cement is the second most consumed commodity in the world after water”[1]
Introduction to cement
Page 27
[1] Global Cement Magazine, CEMENT 101 – An indtroduction to the World’s most important building material
![Page 28: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
“Cement is the second most consumed commodity in the world after water”[1]
Introduction to cement
Page 28
[1] Global Cement Magazine, CEMENT 101 – An indtroduction to the World’s most important building material
Buildings
Roads
Bridges
Airports
![Page 29: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
• Cement production accounts for
8% of the final energy consumption of the Swiss industrial sector (12.8 PJ)[6]
36% of the CO2 emissions of the Swiss industrial sector (2.5 Mt)[6]
Around two-thirds the CO2 emissions are related to the process of
converting limestone into clinker
Remaining emissions are related to fuel combustion
• Specific final energy use
Swiss cement plants 2.65 GJ/tcement or 3.6 GJ/tclinker[6]
Global cement industry between 3.4 and 4.7 GJ/tclinker[7]
Best available techniques (BAT) 3.3 GJ/tclinker[8]
• Specific CO2 emissions
Swiss cement plants 787 kgCO2/tclinker[6]
EU cement industry 825 kgCO2/tclinker[7]
Global cement industry 843 kgCO2/tclinker[7]
Energy and CO2 in Swiss cement plants
Page 29
[6] Cemsuisse, Kennzahlen 2018[7] Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI), 2016, Cement Industry Energy and CO2 Performance – Getting the Numbers Right[8] European Commission, 2013, Best Available Techniques (BAT) Reference Document for the Production of Cement, Lime
and Magnesium Oxide
![Page 30: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
• Recent developments of energy use[6]
Energy consumption in Swiss cement plants
Page 30
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Spec
ific
en
ergy
use
[G
J/t c
emen
t]
Fin
al e
ner
gy c
on
sum
pti
on
[PJ
]
Coal Electricity Alternative fuels
Based on [6] Cemsuisse, Kennzahlen 2018
![Page 31: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Clinker content in Swiss cement plants
Page 31
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Clin
ker
to c
emen
t ra
tio
Switzerland
EU-28
World
Based on [6] Cemsuisse, Kennzahlen 2018
![Page 32: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Cement process (model)
Page 32
![Page 33: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
• BAU - Business as usual
Frozen policy and unchanged market environment
Demand for cement to remains stable
Average clinker content decreasing to 60% until 2050
CO2 tax is held constant at a level of 20 EUR/tCO2
• CAP - CO2 Cap scenario group
Linear reduction of the CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2015.
Four emissions reduction trajectories, which aim at an emissions reduction in
2050 of 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% compared to 2015
• EE - Energy efficiency scenario group
Specific energy reduction per ton of cement until 2050 from 2015 levels of 30%
and 35%
• TAX – CO2 tax scenario group
Different CO2 tax policies from 20 EUR/tCO2 (in 2015) to 70 to 100 CHF/tCO2 in
2050
Scenario definition
Page 33
![Page 34: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Results - BAU
Page 34
[1] Obrist et al., 2020, Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions (in preparation)
![Page 35: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Results – EE-30
Page 35
[1] Obrist et al., 2020, Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions (in preparation)
![Page 36: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Results – TAX-90
Page 36
[1] Obrist et al., 2020, Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions (in preparation)
![Page 37: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Results – TAX-90
Page 37
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Cem
en
t p
rod
uct
ion
co
st [
EUR
/t]
TAX-90
![Page 38: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Results – CAP-80
Page 38
[1] Obrist et al., 2020, Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions (in preparation)
![Page 39: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Comparison of CCS technologies
Page 39
[1] Obrist et al., 2020, Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions (in preparation)
![Page 40: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Results – CAP-40 without CCS
Page 40
[1] Obrist et al., 2020, Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions (in preparation)
![Page 41: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Results – CO2 price in 2050
Page 41
[1] Obrist et al., 2020, Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions (in preparation)
![Page 42: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Results – CO2 emissions
Page 42
[1] Obrist et al., 2020, Decarbonization pathways of the Swiss cement industry towards net zero emissions (in preparation)
![Page 43: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
• Future cement production improves its energy efficiency and decreases its CO2
emissions even without policy action mainly due to the decreasing clinker
content in cement and deployment more efficient technologies (to replace
existing technologies)
• Although a CO2 tax up to 80 EUR/tCO2 results in a more expensive cement
production, the total CO2 emissions will not be reduced significantly
• A CO2 tax between 80 and 100 EUR/tCO2 makes it economically attractive to
avoid CO2 emissions with carbon capture technologies with the benefit of
avoiding both, energy and process-related CO2 emissions
• Carbon capture will increase the specific electricity consumption of the cement
industry
• From an economic point of view, fuel switching is only a limited option to
decrease the CO2 emissions of the cement industry because of the high share of
process related emissions and limitations with regards to switching of burner
technologies in the complex process setting of a cement plant
Key messages
Page 43
![Page 44: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
• No significant reduction of the CO2 emissions is possible in the cement sector
without carbon capture and the corresponding infrastructure to transport and
sequestrate CO2
Key messages
Page 44
![Page 45: 200428 FiER Obrist - ETH Z](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012720/61b2e40eeb6c9c4a0127a69c/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Page 45
Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
My thanks go to my
supervisors
• Dr. Tom Kober
• Dr. Kannan
Ramachandran
• Prof. Dr. Thomas
Schmidt
Funded by
• BFE as part of the
SWIDEM project