13.06.2012. ALARO-0 experience in Hungary 1
ALARO-0 experience in HungaryALARO-0 experience in Hungary
Mihály SzűcsHungarian Meteorological Service
ALARO-1 Working Days, 13-15 June 2012, Ljubljana, Slovenia
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ContestsContests
ALARO in operation First general experiences:
Improvements in high-atmospheric scores Good precipitation patterns
Some problematic questions: Screen level diagnostics – new formula Cloud settings – namelist modifications Too strong wind gusts
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ALARO in operationALARO in operation ‘Deterministic’ system:
With data assimilation ALARO is operational from March of 2012
Ensemble system: Dynamical adaptation of the first 11 members
from PEARP ALARO is operational from November of 2011
Resolution:
8km horizontal 49 vertical levels 300s timesteps
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First experiences – high-atmosperic scoresFirst experiences – high-atmosperic scores
Improvements in most of the variables and levels Similar experiences with and without assimilation (deterministic and EPS)
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First experiences – precipitation patternFirst experiences – precipitation pattern
Global hydrostatic models usually under-estimate the bigger precipitation events and give rain for bigger areas.
NH models could over-estimate and generate dotted patterns for frontal precipitation
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Screen level diagnostics - problemsScreen level diagnostics - problems
2mT over-estimation and RH under-estimation especially in stable night situations
The situation was worse in EPS (shown here):
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Screen level diagnostics – new formulaScreen level diagnostics – new formula 2 meter temperature and relative humidity is calculated by ACNTCLS
In neutral cases we have a logarithmic profile between the surface and the lowest model level
This profile is modified on a stability dependent way
In this modification ah is a parameter
which:
Was a constant original ALARO version
We introduced a new Richardson number dependent formulation
Surface heat capacity was also modified:
Original: RCGMAX= RCTVEG(:)= 8*10-6
New value: RCGMAX=RCTVEG(:)= 2*10-5
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Screen level diagnostics – resultsScreen level diagnostics – results A two-weeks periods which was full with stable situations (EPS showed
bigger improvement – figures here)
2meter temperature was mostly even better than in ALADIN reference
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Screen level diagnostics – resultsScreen level diagnostics – results A two-weeks periods which was full with stable situations (EPS showed
bigger improvement – figures here)
Relative humidity was just slightly better than originally in ALARO
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Cloud settings – problems with ALAROCloud settings – problems with ALARO During the winter-tests we had hardly any cases with 98–100% cloud cover
It is very problematic in blocking situation when the Carpathian Basin could be cloud covered for more weeks
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Cloud settings – old ALADIN versionCloud settings – old ALADIN version During the winter tests we had hardly any cases with 98–100% cloud cover
It is very problematic in blocking situation when the Carpathian Basin could be cloud covered for more weeks
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Cloud settings – new ALARO settingsCloud settings – new ALARO settings
Modified variables in ACNEBN.F90 to Xu-Randall formulation
More tests run but QXC was found as the best for 49 levels
default alaro alaro_QXA alaro_QXB alaro_QXC
LQXRTGH FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE TRUE
QXRTGH 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5
QXRAL 1000 100 130 100 130
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Cloud settings – new ALARO settingsCloud settings – new ALARO settings With the new settings we had more realistic cloud patterns
The area of ~100% cloud cover became quite good
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Cloud settings – new ALARO settingsCloud settings – new ALARO settings Verification for a three-week long period in January 2012
Better total cloudiness results
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Cloud settings – new ALARO settingsCloud settings – new ALARO settings
Verification for a three-week long period in January 2012
Better 2meter temperature results
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Cloud settings – new ALARO settingsCloud settings – new ALARO settings
Sometimes too much clouds in summer – AROME is ok, which is initialized from ALARO
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Cloud and temperature error connection (?)Cloud and temperature error connection (?)
“x” is the cloud error and “y” is the max/min temperature error.
Diurnal periods on the left side, overnight periods on the right side
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
-4.5
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
T
Linear (T)
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
T
Linear (T)
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Too strong wind gusts – problemsToo strong wind gusts – problems 12.05.2012. - Strong cold front through Hungary – Strong wind especially in
NW part of the country – 10 meter wind forecast was quite good
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Too strong wind gusts - formulationToo strong wind gusts - formulation
The formulation of wind gust calculation was not modified in ALARO
PCD (surface exchange coefficint) calculation has changed in this formula
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Too strong wind gusts - FACRAFToo strong wind gusts - FACRAF FACRAF was simply modified from 15 to 10 – it decreased the wind gust over-
estimation
Further investigations (?)
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Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!