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Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide
Multimodal Transportation PoliciesProgress Report to the VTrans2035 Advisory
CommitteeBy James H. Lambert
with Megan N. Kersh, Asad A. Saqib, Matthew J. Schroeder, Edward E. Williams IV, James H. Lambert
May 15, 2008
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Acknowledgments
Commonwealth’s Multimodal Transportation Office
VTrans2035 Virginia Department of Transportation Virginia Transportation Research Council
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Summary
Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning Assessed the needs of regional transportation
planners Developed a scenario-based analysis of regional
multimodal transportation impacts Designed an Excel workbook to apply scenario-
based planning approach to regions of the Commonwealth
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Presentation Outline
Introduction and motivation Problem definition Project background Technical approach overview Demonstrate workbook Conclusions and future work
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Motivation Virginia’s diverse transportation system
• More than 60,000 miles of roadway• 67 public-use airports• 4 state-operated port terminals• Over 40 fixed route transit systems• Extensive freight and passenger rail
Scenario-based planning is essential for planning on a thirty-year horizon
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VTrans2035 “…policy framework for an
integrated multimodal transportation system that improves mobility and adds to the prosperity and the quality of life for Virginia”
Modal agencies• DOAV• VDRPT• VDOT• DMV• VPA
Pierce R. HomerSecretary of Transportation
VTrans2035 Advisory Committee
Heads of Modal Agencies
Analysis support for scenario-based planning
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Problem Definition
Characterize the regional impacts of statewide multimodal transportation policies
Develop a survey for seeking consensus and differences of transportation planners
Begin to explore region by region across the Commonwealth
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Regional Planning Organizations
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Timeline September 2007: Contact with Virginia’s Multimodal Office November 2007: Virginia Transportation Conference, Roanoke,
Virginia December 2007: Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO student paper
competition February 2008: Meeting with Dr. Tischer and Deputy Secretary
Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett, Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine Graham, VDOT, on economic input output analysis
February 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO March 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO May 2008: Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine Graham May 2008: Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory Committee
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Project Website
www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2
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Scenario-Based Planning
Use of scenarios to guide forecasts, projects, and policies
Advocated by the Federal Highway Administration
Several different approaches for methodology
Source: FHWA, various sources
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Types of Scenarios Spatial Economic Demographic
• Number of households, in/out-migration Other
• Environmental• Availability of energy resources• National emergencies• Natural disasters
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Spatial Scenarios Urban core repopulates
• People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged• Public transportation increases, clean transportation
Sprawl accelerates• Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases• Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion
Information technology amenities grow• More workers telecommute so sprawl continues• Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas
Region undivided• Shift job and household growth from west to east
Transit oriented development• More people live and work closer to transit
Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Economic Scenarios Regional economy strengthens
• Many workers move to region, sprawl continues
Global trade intensifies• Population decreases, increased use of automobiles
Energy cost rises• People relocate to more transit-oriented locations• Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases
Infrastructure investment expands• May draw people to area in the long run
Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Demographic Scenarios
In-migration increases• Total population increases, decreased use of
auto
Out-migration increases• Population decreases, increased use of auto
More households• Increased household growth to balance
forecast job growthSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Other Scenarios “Green” region emphasized
• Use of public transit, bike, etc.
Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened• Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation• Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized
Carbon constrained future Energy constrained future
• Global price shocks and shortagesSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Scenario-Based Planning (cont.)
Identify key regional issues Identify key factors for issues Combine key factors and issues to make
future scenarios Explore scenarios with a variety of
stakeholders
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Stages of the Analysis
Select Regions Select Scenarios
Score PoliciesBased
on EvaluationCriteria
Weigh EvaluationCriteria withScenarios
Assess PolicyPerformance
Sensitivity to Region
Discuss andCombine
Issues andFactors
ID Key Factors ID Key Issues
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Transportation Policies
Twenty-one policies of VTrans2035 and Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning
Sample of policies• P.4 – Fund rail• P.6 – Strengthen planning and modeling• P.24 – Going green (specific to region)• P.23 – Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths (specific
to region)
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Scenarios
Used nineteen scenarios based on studies throughout the U.S.
Focused on five scenarios for the region in our case study• S.2 – Sprawl accelerates• S.17 – Retirement• S.18 – Natural disaster• S.3 – IT amenities grow• S.19 – Decrease in air quality
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Transportation Criteria (“Goals”)
Six high level criteria with 34 sub-criteria High level goals:
• C.1 – Safety and Security• C.2 – Preservation and Management• C.3 – Efficient Movement of Goods and People• C.4 – Economic Vitality• C.5 – Quality of Life• C.6 – Program Delivery
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Workbook - Introduction
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Workbook – Policy Definitions
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Workbook – Policy Ratings
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Workbook – Scenario Definitions
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Workbook – Criteria Weighting
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Workbook – Policy Comparison
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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)
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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)
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Summary of Progress
Explored scenario-based planning approach to analyze impacts of regional multimodal transportation policies
Integrated policies, scenarios, and evaluation criteria in an Excel workbook
Characterized regional impacts for multimodal transportation policies
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Future Work
Survey MPOs to to find what scenarios are used in long-range planning
Customize workbook for survey of regional organizations
Implement a telephone survey to gather input to the workbook
Collate the results in support of VTrans2035
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RVAMPO Student Paper Award
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RVAMPO Award (cont.)
In Roanoke with Competition Sponsor Receiving Best Student Paper Award
Team with UVa Engineering Dean James Aylor and Department of Systems and Information Engineering Chair, Prof. Don Brown