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1Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Guangzhou, China, October 2004, PRD Campaign
Emissions and transport of aerosol and ozone in South Asia and China: the GAINS-Asia project
F. Dentener, R. Van Dingenen (JRC) W. Schoepp, A. Chambers ,C. Heyes ,Z. Klimont , M. Amann (IIASA)
R. Mathur (TERI, India)Kejun Jiang (ERI, China)
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2Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Objectives:•Develop a tool for policy analysis of cost-benefits ofcontrolling air pollution and GHG emissions•State of the art models•Reduced form representations of models•Updating reference year emission inventories•Scenario’s reflecting realistic energy use perspectives and options for mitigations
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3Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
TM5 CTMModel set-up• TM5 global 3D CTM with regional two-way nesting• 6°x4; 3°x2°,1°x1°; 25 vertical layers• Aerosol and photo-chemistry• ECMWF meteorology; output every hour• AEROCOM, PHOTOCOMP, HTAP intercomparisons
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4Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Experimental set-upImplementation for GAINS-Asia• Policies often implemented at provincial or state level• 32 regions for India; Bangadesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka• 26 provinces in China
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5Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Experimental set-up
Perturbation by gridbox
Implementation for GAINS-Asia:• Initial emissions: GAINS/EDGAR3.2; BC/POM: Bond (2004)• Perturbation by -20 % of anthropogenic emissions per region
=> perturbation per unit emission• Input to GAINS cost optimisation• 2 separate cases: NOx-BC-POM; and SO2-CO-VOC• Altogether ca. 120 simulations of 1 year+ spin-up 2 months• Parameterisation to derive urban scale PM concentrations
Uttar Pradesh:Emission perturbation
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6Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Change in deposition of SO4
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7Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Change in SOMO35 (O3>35 ppbv)
ppb days
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8Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Simulated PM10 for 2001
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9Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
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10Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
China PM10;including industrial dust
y = 1.0744xr=0.50
020406080
100120140160180200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
measurement
mod
elPM10 in ca. 100 cities in China
Good slope, lot of scatter
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11Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Contribution to PM10 from industrial sources
(not POM, BC)Cement
ConstructionRoad dust
LocationStrengthremoval
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12Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
China PM10;without industrial dust
y = 0.7634xr=0.62
020406080
100120140160180200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
measurement
mod
elPM10 in ca. 100 cities in China
-without industrial dust
Something missing, less scatter
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13Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
China PM10;+without industrial dust+filter for natural dust
y = 0.7666xr=0.68
020406080
100120140160180200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
measurement
mod
el… Without natural dust …
Better correlation
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14Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Comparison of PM2.5 at Beijing (2001)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
no3so
4nh4 bc
pom ss du
unidentifi
ed
model
meas
He et al., Atmos Env. 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
model
meas
Industrial dust:Not likely to be so high!
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15Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Increase in PM10 in 2030: Worldwide “Business-as-usual”Realistic scenario developed by ERI/TERI
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16Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Scenario: •national energy use projections•Limited air pollution mitigation
Increase in PM10 in 2030:
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17Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Loss of statistical life expectancy [months] •World bank method
•Above natural background
2000
Life expectancy will decrease by 6-12 months in 2030
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18Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Starting point for identifying mitigation options
Example of implementation in GAINS-AsiaUsing province/state SR relationships
50 ug/m3 (EU limit)
Scenario 2030
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19Dentener, IGAC, 08.08.2008
Concluding remarks
•Source Receptor relationships for provinces and states in India and China with TM5•First order understanding of levels and composition
of PM2.5 and PM10 (needs improvement)•New measurements coming available will help with
evaluation•Updated GAINS emission (scenarios) for India/China•Scenarios for 2030 combining economic
energy projections with not very ambitious mitigation options leads to serious further decline in air quality
•GAINS tool now operational: will provide policy makerswith information and options to improve air quality:“SEE IS BELIEVE”