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Conduct of Contemporary War and Warfare
The Art of Strategy: To gain the most favorable and durable outcome possible at the least cost in blood, treasure, and time
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Use examples and ideas from all three readings to address the following:
•Group 1. What is a Theory of Victory and in what ways should War Termination fit within it?
•Group 2: Describe a plausible theory of victory for ISIS. Be sure to discuss Ends (Aims) and Ways from their perspective.
•Group 3: Explain three significant challenges in translating military success into desired political ends.
•Group 4: Describe a plausible theory of victory for Russia in the Ukraine conflict. Be sure to discuss Ends (Aims) and Ways from their perspective.
•Group 5: Evaluate the merits of Historian Jeremy Black’s statement that ‘… success in war is a cultural construct.’
•Group 6: Describe a plausible theory of victory for the Taliban. Be sure to discuss Ends (Aims) and Ways from their perspective.
•Group 7: In what ways can changes in domestic coalitions affect war aims, policy, and strategy?
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Primordial ViolenceChance and Probability
Reason
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
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Political Decisions
ENDS: Desired OutcomesGuidanceBoundariesPriotities
Organize Ways and Means into Theory of Success that achieves desired outcomes within policy guidance and boundaries
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Group 5
GROUP 5
1. “… SUCCESS IN WAR IS A CULTURAL CONSTRUCT.”
2. ATHENS3. SUCCESS / DECISIVE VICTORY4. OVERLAPPING BARGAINING
SPACE
PEOPLE PERCEIVE THINGS DIFFERENTLY
Crisis Diplomacy War Diplomacy Peace
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Group 3
Crisis Diplomacy War Diplomacy
Conventional War paradigm
Contemporary War
Political Diplomatic
MilitaryEconomic
Socio-CulturalCrisis
Peace
End of Crisis;Peace
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Group 1
The Myth of Decisive Victory
• Assumption that wars should be short, sharp, and sweet
• Few wars have led to quick and decisive victories
• Ignoring this has led to costly mistakes in military planning
12
Political Decisions
ENDS: Desired OutcomesGuidanceBoundaries
Organize Ways and Means into Theory of Success that achieves desired outcomes within policy guidance and boundaries
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
13
Critical Understanding
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
DestroyEliminate
ContainIsolateDeter
DisruptSuppressDegrade/AttritUndermine
CreateEstablish
PromoteSupportDefeat
AssistAid
Level of Commitment
CoordinateCollaborate
Critical Understanding
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Strengths Weaknesses
OpportunitiesRisks
How to …•Exploit their vulnerabilities?•Undermine their strengths?•Mask my vulnerabilities?•Exploit my strengths?
Thus a victorious army wins its victories before seeking battle; an army destined for defeat fights in the hope of winning – Sun Tzu
Seize something he cherishes and he will conform to your desires – Sun Tzu
Critical Understanding
• Political• Diplomatic• Military• Intelligence• Economic• Cultural• Social
WAYS: How do I employ elements of national power (capabilities) to achieve desired outcomes (Ends) …
… in a dynamic, competitive, interactive environment
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
… that addresses vulnerabilities and strengths…
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
• Political• Diplomatic• Military• Intelligence• Economic• Cultural• Social
OR…
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What Resources (MEANS) do I need for WAYS to achieve ENDS
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
19
Critical Understanding
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Decisive Victory
Negotiated Ending
Strategic Withdrawal
Level of Commitm
ent
Likely Durabilit
y
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Negotiated Endings
Imposed Settlement
Strategic A
dvantage
Favorable Settlement
Truce
Un-Favorable Settlement
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Deliberate Strategy
GOAL
Threats & Opportunities
Emergent Strategies
Realized StrategyRejected Efforts
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Deliberate Strategy
GOAL
Threats & Opportunities
Emergent Strategies
Rejected Efforts
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Deliberate Strategy
GOAL
Threats & Opportunities
Emergent Strategies
Rejected Efforts
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Prefe
rence
Entrapment
Information
Group 7
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Effort
Time
Success
Quagmire?
Time
Effort
Success
Success
Critical Understanding
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
A Proper Theory of VictoryEmergent Strategies
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Group 2 (4,6)
Group 2: ISIS Victory Theory
Establish an Islamic Caliphate throughout the Muslim world•Modern notions of statehood and national boundaries must be discarded•In the medium/long term their aims may extend to the whole of the Middle East and then the broader Sunni world. Forge a pure conservative form of Islam •Elimination of Shias•Impose Sharia Laws
Stage one: Ensuring survival through arms/political stalemate• >Split the US led coalition: Exploit the fact that the members of the coalition have different agendas, keep
their attention on each other. Airstrikes are not enough.
• >Intimidation: Continue the propaganda of hatred of other sects (Shias), but not to the point where Iran is encouraged to step in
• >Underground Propaganda: seeks to gain Sunni support in the following states: Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Turkey, UAE, Qatar, etc.
• >Engage in corruption (in Baghdad): This may sound counter intuitive, but corruption enables ISIS to launder money, and obscure their financial pipelines. It keeps societies weak, maintains the “collapse of the Arab civilization, enabling radical Islam to look more attractive. “2-in-1” effect
• >Keep current stronghold: do not over expand.
• >Governance: Provide basic government services to controlled population, at least just better than the previous Iraqi/Syrian governments could provide
• >Run the War Economy: Allow the population to do business as usual, do not interfere or weaken the competitiveness of business. They must provide jobs and those jobs will generate the tax necessary to run basic government services. Maintain and protect the local infrastructure
• >Oil: keep selling oil, find more middlemen, increase the network.
Stage Two (Long Term): Spreading Radical Islam and Insurgency.• >Goals in other (Muslim) states: weaken governments by causing
sectarian divisions; promoting sunni hatred of their governments; engaging
in corruption and weakening institutions. This will give rise to radical
islam.
• > Insurgency based operations: Focus on instigating radical uprisings, by
not having ISIS directly invade other states, but having them do it from the
inside out, while establishing the terrorist network.
• >Domino Effect: timing is essential - one uprising should encourage the
next
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Group 2 (4,6)
Strengths Weaknesses
OpportunitiesRisks
How to …•Exploit their vulnerabilities?•Undermine their strengths?•Mask my vulnerabilities?•Exploit my strengths?
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Group 2 (4,6)
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Group 2 (4,6)
Deliberate Strategy
GOAL
Threats & Opportunities
Emergent Strategies
Realized StrategyRejected Efforts
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
IS Effectiveness(-)
Coalition Effectiveness (+)
IS Effectiveness (+)
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination
Emergent Strategies Coalition Effectiveness (-)
Status Quo
I II
IVIII
IS precipitous collapse
IS offensive culminates; consolidates control
IS consolidates control; continues advance; coalition splits
IS collapsing; govt’s rejected; coalition splits
Progress
A plausible ‘Theory of Victory’ for the Taliban
‘Theory of Victory’:
1) Departure of foreigners
2) Full implementation of Sharia law
3) Complete replacement of the current Afghan government
Ways to achieve victory:
Theory of Victory vs. Real World
Recipe for victory in the real world for the Taliban might be:
R (power of resistance) = M (total means available) x W (strength of will)
Bring power of resistance as close as possible to zero
• Groups 1 and 2: Refine, as necessary, the Emergent Strategies Quad chart; Identify one intelligence question per quadrant that should help your protagonist anticipate the direction the conflict is heading.
• Groups 3 and 4: For your protagonist, identify three critical friendly and enemy strengths and weaknesses, and three potential risks and opportunities they offer.
•Groups 5-6: Following Biddle’s model of higher-end and lower-end aims and their implications; identify a plausible higher-end and lower-end aim (END) for your protagonist and identify the likely implications on potential WAYS and MEANS.
•Group 7: From the Coalition perspective, identify three potential “intelligence” failures (using Betts’ concept of the term) that could have strategic implications in the conflict against IS.
Lesson 5: Intelligence and Strategic Design
Lesson 4: Theory of Victory and War Termination