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NGA East Geotechnical Working Group
Youssef M. A. Hashash, Albert R. Kottke, Kenneth W. Campbell,Byungmin Kim, Cheryl Moss, Sissy Nikolaou, Ellen M. Rathje, Walter J.
Silva, and Jonathan P. Stewart
Presented byAlbert R. Kottke, Ph.D. Bechtel Corp
Tuesday August 20th, 2013
Session: Earthquake Loads - Seismic Hazard Assessment II
8/20/2013 NGA-East GWG: Reference Rock 1
Reference Rock SiteCondition for Central and
Eastern North America
Outline
! Reference rock site condition! Definition! Importance for seismic hazard
! Existing recommendation! Reference velocity
! Defining reference velocity! Evaluation of collected data! Recommendation
! Reference local attenuation!
Published models! Recommendation
! Conclusions
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Reference Rock Site Condition
! Defined by:! Shear-wave velocity (V s)
!
Compression-wave velocity (V p)
!
Local attenuation (! 0,ref )
! Unit weight
! Appropriate for the Central andEastern North America (stable
continental)
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Importance of Reference Condition
•
Present in allvelocity profilesin the region
• Interfacebetween regionaland site-specificmodels
• The reference
condition foramplificationmodels
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RegionalCharacteristics
Site SpecificModels
ReferenceCondition
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Existing V s,ref Recommendation
•
EPRI (1993) study is thebasis of current values• V s,ref of 2.83 km/sec
(9,200 ft/sec)
• Based on 16 crustalstructure regions
• V s values computed fromV p inversions and anassumed Poisson’s ratio of0.25
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! Published GMPEs use 2.00 to 2.88 km/sec
! Based on simulations
! V s,ref values based on top of assumed crustal profile
4 6 8 10VP (km/s)
2 3 4 5VS (km/s)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
D e p t h ( k m )
Existing ! 0,ref Recommendation
! EPRI (1993) reported a median ! 0,ref of 0.006 sec and initially proposed a" ln of 0.40.
! EPRI (1993) and Toro et al . (1997)used equally weighted values0.0003, 0.006, and 0.012 sec
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Collection of Velocity Data
! V s and V p measurements thatpenetrate hard-rock were collected
! Journal publications and technicalreports
! Nuclear power plant applications
! Located 283 profiles in study region
!
68 V s,ref values at 27 different locations
!
60 V p,ref
values at 22 different locations
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Locations of Collected Data
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Example Velocity Profile
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Definition of Reference Velocity
! Based on characteristics of collectedvelocity profiles
! Typical profiles transition from soil toweathered rock to intact rock
! Established a criteria based on:
1. Velocity
2.
Measurement penetration
3. Velocity gradient
4. Geologic age
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Reference V s Measurements
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2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
S - W a v e V e l o c i t y ,
V s ( m / s )
B e l l B e n d N P P - 8
B e l l e f o n t e N P P - 8
B r o n
s o n - A v a l o n - 1
C a l l a w a y N P P - 2
C
a l v e r t C l i f f s - 3
C h a l k R i v e r ,
O n t a r i o - 1
C
l i n t o n N P P - 1
C o m a n c h e P e a k N P P - 1
F e r m i N P P - 2
G r a n d R e m o u s , O n t a r i o - 1
H a r t f o r d - 1
H a y e s - 1
M o n t i c e l l o R e s e r v o i r - 3
N i n
e M i l e N P P - 1
N o r t h
A n n a N P P - 2
O t t a
w a ,
O n t a r i o - 1
P S E G N P P - 1
R i v e r B e n d N P P - 1
S h e a r o n
H a r r i s N P P - 1
T u r k e y P o i n t N P P - 1
T y n e s i d e , O n t a r i o - 1
V . C . S u m m e r N P P - 8
V o g t l e N P P - 3
W a t e r b u r y - 1
W e s l e y v
i l l e ,
O n t a r i o - 1
W i l l i a m s b u r g ,
O n t a r i o - 1
W i l l i a m S t a t e s L e e I I I N P P - 1 2
Reference V p Measurements
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3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
P - W a v e V e l o c i t y , V p ( m / s )
B e l l B e n d N P P - 8
B e l l e f o
n t e N P P - 8
C a l l a w a y N P P - 2
C a l v
e r t C l i f f s - 3
C l i n
t o n N P P - 1
C o m a n c h e P
e a k N P P - 1
D a n i e l s e t a l , U P H 3 - 1
F e
r m i N P P - 3
H a y e s - 1
L u e t g e r t e t a l (
9 4 ) , S P 1 - 1
L u e t g e r t e t a l (
9 4 ) , S P 2 - 1
L u e t g e r t e t a l (
9 4 ) , S P 3 - 1
L u e t g e r t e t a l (
9 4 ) , S P 4 - 1
L u e t g e r t e t a l (
9 4 ) , S P 5 - 1
M o n t i c e l l o R
e s e r v o i r - 3
N i n e M
i l e N P P - 1
N o r t h A n n a N P P - 2
P S
E G N P P - 2
R i v e r B
e n d N P P - 1
S h e a r o n H a
r r i s N P P - 1
V . C . S u m m e r N P P - 8
W i l l i a m S t a t e s L e e I I I N P P - 9
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Trend with Depth
! Comparedselected referencevelocities withdepth
! Potential to selecthigher velocities atgreater depth(bias)
! Part of the QAprocess
! No trend observed
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Within-Profile V s,ref Distribution
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Comparing assumed normal and log-normal distributionsindicated that velocities tended to be normally distributed
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Theoretical Quantiles
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
O r d e r e d V
s , r e f -
( V s , r e f ) p r ( m / s )
Theoretical
(b)
R2 = 0.95
-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
V s,ref - ( V s,ref ) pr (m/s)
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
P r o b a b i l i t y
(a)
- 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0 0 .2 0.4 0.6
ln[ /(V s,ref ) pr V s,ref ]
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
P r o b a b i l i t y
(a)
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Theoretical Quantiles
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
O
r d e r e d l n [
/ ( V s , r e f ) p r
V s , r e f
]
(b)
R2 = 0.96
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Characterizing the Uncertainty
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The observed trend in the standard deviation with mean profile velocityis removed by characterizing the uncertainty using the coefficient ofvariation (standard deviation / mean)
2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Mean Profile Velocity (m/s)
0
200
400
600
800
P r o f i l e S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n ( m / s )
S-Wave P-Wave
2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Mean Profile Velocity (m/s)
0
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.2
P r o f i l e C o e f f i c i e n t o f V a r i a t i o n
Within-Region V s,ref Distribution
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Theoretical
2000 2400 2800 3200 3600V s,ref (m/s)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
P r o b a b i l i t y
(a)
-2 -1 0 1 2
Theoretical Quantiles
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
O r d e r e d
V s , r e f
( m / s )
(b)
R2 = 0.98
Distribution of mean values from each location indicate a slightlyskewed distribution that can be approximated by a normal distribution.
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Poisson’s Ratio
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B e l l
B e n d N P P
B e l l e f o n t e N P P
C a l l a w a y N P P
C a
l v e r t C l i f f s
C l i n t o n N P P
C o m a n c h e
P e a k N P P
F e r m i N P P
H a y e s
M o n t i c e l l o
R e s e r v o i r
N i n e
M i l e N P P
N o r t h
A n n a N P P
P S E G N P P
R i v e r
B e n d N P P
S h e a r o n H a r r i s N P P
T u r k e y
P o i n t N P P
V . C . S u
m m e r N P P
W i l l i a m S t a t e s L
e e I I I N P P
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
0.32
0.34
P o i s s s o n ' s R a t i o
Calculated
Assumed
Mean value of 0.28
Weathered Zone
!
Collectedinformation onthe weatheredrock
! Clearlyobserved atfour locations
! Identified:
• Thickness• Velocity range
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100
80
60
40
20
0
D e p t h ( m )
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
S - W a v e V e l o c i t y ( m / s )
Bell Bend NPPBellefonte NPP
NorthAnna NPP
Williams StatesLee III NPP
(a) (b)
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Weathered Zone Properties
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1 10 100Weathered Zone Thickness (m)
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
S - W a v e V e l o c i t y R a t i o
Bell Bend NPP
Bellefonte NPP
North Anna NPP
Williams States LEE III NPP
Mean thickness = 15 mMean Vs ratio = 1.53
Velocity Gradient
!
Defined byincrease invelocity withdepth
! Mean gradient:
! Reference rock2 per sec
! Weathered rock165 per sec
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0 200 400 600Velocity Gradient [(m/s)/m]
0
1
2
3
4(b) Weathered rock
µ = 165 (1/s)
-100 0 100 200 300 400Velocity Gradient [(m/s)/m]
0
10
20
30
40
C o u n t
(a) Reference rock
µ = 2 (1/s)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700Velocity Gradient Difference [(m/s)/m]
0
1
2
3
4
5
C
o u n t
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Range of V s,ref
! Collected data indicate V s,ref variesbetween locations
! Two potential methods define therange:! Statistics:
! 95% confidence interval: 2.12 to 3.78 km/sec
! Influence of V s,ref range on the ground motion?
! Amplification! Specify range using 5% difference in
amplification
! Amplification estimated by !#$ ! "#$ #
! 2.7 to 3.3 km/sec
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Recommended Reference Velocity
!"#$ '()$" *)+,"
! "#$%& "1) 234'56 !1. 7 "1" 234'56
! (#$%& ,1, 234'56 ,1) 7 -1* 234'56
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Reference Local Attenuation (! 0,ref )
! 896:; :9=?:@:35(5@ ) *#$%& 6A:@:6(5@BC5' AB&A7D@5E%5=6F :9=
! G5H=5I D@93 AB&A7D@5E%5=6F6A:@:6(5@B'>6' 9D@569@I5I &@9%=I39>9='
! J=(5@?@5(5I :' I:3?B=&I%5 (9 =5:@7'B(5 5K56('L:IIB>9=:; (9 MN
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$O5@ $=I5@'9= :=I P9%&A L*0/+N
! Existing studies used:
! Use recorded CENA ground motions
Sources Considered
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Anderson (91) Edwards (12)
Atkinson (84) Hough et al. (88)
Atkinson (96) Silva and Darragh (95)
Atkinson and Boore (06) Silva et al. (88)
Campbell (09) Silva et al. (99)
Chandler et al. (06) Toro and McGuire (87)
Chapman et al. (03) Van Houtte et al. (11)
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Local Attenuation Models
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Recommended local attenuation
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Distribution Parameter Value
Type of Distribution Lognormal
Median, 0, ref ! (sec) 0.006
Aleatory Standard Deviation,0,ln ref !
" (sec) 0.43
Epistemic Standard Deviation,0,ln ref !
# (sec)
Excluding source, path, and site uncertainty
Including source, path, and site uncertainty
0.12
0.20
Total Standard Deviation,0, 0, 0,
2 2
ln ln lnref ref ref ! ! ! $ " # = +
Excluding source, path, and site uncertainty
Including source, path, and site uncertainty0.45
0.47
Coefficient of Variation ( )2COV exp( ) 1$ = % Aleatory variability
Epistemic uncertaintyExcluding source, path, and site uncertainty
Including source, path, and site uncertainty
0.45
0.47
0.50
95th
Confidence Interval; 2$ ± Range (sec)
Excluding source, path, and site uncertainty
Including source, path, and site uncertainty
0.0024 – 0.0148
0.0023 – 0.0154
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Conclusions
! Reference rock velocity! V s,ref = 3,000 m/s (2,700 -3,300 m/s) ! V p,ref = 5,500 m/s (5,000 -6,100 m/s)
!
Local attenuation
! ! 0,ref = 0.006 sec
! Log-normal distribution
! Log standard deviation = 0.43
!
Recorded motions will be incorporated oncethey become available
8/20/2013 NGA-East GWG: Reference Rock 27
Acknowledgments!
Funding! U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission!
U.S. Department of Energy!
Electric Power Research Institute!
U.S. Geological Survey
! Support from:!
Bechtel! Farhang Ostadan! Tarek Elkhoraibi
! Fugro! Jeff Bachuber! Michael Gray
! US NRC! Richard Rivera-Lugo
!
Undergraduate and graduate students:!
Michael Musgrove!
Khatereh Khodaverdi!
Ataya Eltibi!
Paul Khauli
8/20/2013 NGA-East GWG: Reference Rock 28