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Green Dealthe Romanian case
Ionut PURICAProf.Dr.ing.Dr.ec.c.m.AOSR
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EU Green Deal
Comunism ended because it did not internalized the cost of capital; Capitalism may end because it does not internalize the cost of environmentThe Green Deal aims at diminishing the costs to the environment by making the EU economy emission neutral at the horizon of 2050.Action lines:
EnergyTransportBuildingsInnovation
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Energy
Case ROMANIA
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Map 1: Hidroelectrica hydro power plants
BistriţaCluj
Sebeş
Haţeg
Targu JiuBuzău
Caransebeş
Porţile de Fier
Ramnicu Vâlcea
Curtea de Argeş
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Map 2: Termoelectrica thermal power plants
Piteşti Sud
Iernut
Galaţi
Iasi
Brazi
Palas
Borzeşti Term
BrăilaDoiceşti
Craiova
Mintia
RovinariTurceni
Bacău
Isalniţa
Oradea IOradea II
Arad
Progresul
Bucureşti VestBucureşti Sud
Paroşeni
Braşov
Iaşa II
Grozăveşti
Borzeşti Con
Suceava
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Map 5: Electricity exchanges across interconnections, 2000 (GWh)
110kV
220kV
400kV
750kV
Mukacevo 0.0
Rosiori 0.0
Arad 0.0
Sandorfalva 1.0
Jimbolia 0.0
Kikinda 0.0
Portile de Fier 459.0
Djerdap 741.0
Gura Vali 0.0
Sip 20.0Ostruvu Mare 0.0
Kusijak 0.0
Tinteri 316.0
Kozlodui 451.0Kozlodui 0.0
Insalnita 0.0
Vama 0.0
Isaccea 0.0
Isaccea 0.0
South Ukraine 0.0
Husi 0.0
Tutora 0.0
Stinca 0.0Cioara 80.0
Ungheni 91.0
Costesit85.0
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Elements of security
According to the Security strategyof the energy systems launched bythe EU Commission in 2014 it isnecessary to have a diversifiedportfolio of electrical energygeneration technologies thatensures the coverage of situationswhen various types of risksmanifest themselves. The sameapplies for gas interconnectors andfor the climate change risks impacton critical infrastructures.
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SD/Mean Danube
0.361534215
Needed security hydro run river
TWh 16
TWh run river 11.2
h/year 8760
exposure TWh
4.049183203
power MW
462.2355254
Danube
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SD/Mean wind 0.5 wind
TWh 3
TWh wind 3
h/year 8760
exposure TWh 1.5
power MW
171.2328767
Wind
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In the table below a simulation of a typical financing scheme ispresented for a coal power plant of 669 MW having a total of 3000US$/kW and a lifetime of 50 years (the monetary units in the tableare given in US$ but they can be replaced with Euro withoutchanging the values).
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The 3 seas initiative and gas network security
North South interconnector
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Source : Cedigaz
0 %
50 %
100 %
19%
0%0%
0%
0%
0%0% 100%
100%
100%
100%
11%
0%40%
10%
29%
54%
63%
99%
78%
59%64%
100%
46%
100%95%
16%
77%
100%
69%
96%
100%
57%
0%
Source : CEDIGAZ- Estimate of international gas trade by pipeline in 2009
Dependency on Russian gas imports
Share of Russian gasin consumption
Safety enhancing interconnector “From the Varangians to the Greeks”
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Climate change risk
Big data analysis needed
Potential Insurance policy
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0 20000 40000 60000 80000
100000 80000-100000
60000-80000
40000-60000
20000-40000
0-20000
Risk maps
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CountyPremium Risk /cap US$
CountyPremium Risk /cap US$
Bucuresti 0 Harghita 19.68Alba 17.05 Hunedoara 8.44Arad 11.81 Ialomita 43.59Arges 8.28 Iasi 12.27Bacau 8.33 Ilfov 6.68Bihor 8.43 Maramures 8.31Bistrita Nasaud 27.29 Mehedinti 32.56Botosani 20.53 Mures 11.32Braila 35.06 Neamt 11.59Brasov 12.96 Olt 21.09Buzau 16.20 Prahova 11.77Calarasi 40.17 Salaj 51.13Caras Severin 8.74 Satu Mare 31.13Cluj 8.77 Sibiu 17.69Constanta 13.86 Suceava 5.13Covasna 59.81 Teleorman 23.70Dambovita 22.91 Timis 6.71Dolj 9.90 Tulcea 36.61Galati 20.83 Valcea 15.41Giurgiu 46.07 Vaslui 22.73Gorj 16.76 Vrancea 25.50
distribution of risk pemium per capita
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
200000-250000
150000-200000
100000-150000
50000-100000
0-50000
Total CC events risk map [thousands US$]
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Natural gas risk in Italy[probable deaths / million inhabitants]
Romania gas grid CC and mechanical risk [probable deaths/1000 cap]
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Forecasting and planning
Models for the energy system penetration of new
technologies
Optimize for emissions reduction
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ACTING FOR THE NEAR FUTUREMESSAGE results for 3 Scenarios for Nuclear/Renewable ratio in the NEMix until 2035
21
Goal: Select the optimal Nuclear/Renewable ratio in the NEMix until 2035 for D2,d2,p10
21
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Nuclear fuel cycle
Large power emission free technology
New small modular reactors
Will fusion be in time ?
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Romanian nuclear fuel cycle
VVR-STriga
FM test
Post irradiation
D2O plant
Manufacturing
Mine
Ore processing
PowderFuelLM
NPP
LIL
On site
Geological
1957
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the results of evaluating the mitigation and adaptation measures tothe risks in the energy system (considering only hydraulicity, windand photovoltaic) lead to the need of coal capacities of at least1000 MW
Security to gas supply may be enhanced with North Southinterconnectors that link the three seas in the East of the EU.Climate change risk becomes important and an insurance policyshould be considered fast.
The energy sector may not be regarded from only a commercialview point, its strategic importance as well as the social one makenecessary taking into consideration noncommercial costs that mustbe internalized in the financing scheme to reach optimal decisions.
Conclusions
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Transport
The largest local emitter
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Home work:
Consider the energy consumed as fuel for transport in EU
Change transport to electric till 2050
Generate the same amount of energy to charge the batteries of the electric vehicles
How much new installed power will be needed each year and what will be the cost of investment ?
Potential subject for a study on green deal in transport.
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Electrical busses used in the centre of Rome
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Buildings
40% of the energy consumption goes to buildings in the EU
Raising buildings efficiency involves various technologies e.g. thermal insulation, windows energy conversion materials, internal lighting, etc.
This leads to zero energy (passive) buildings as a component of smart cities concept
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Thermal and visible image
Distributed generation for off grid buildings
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Innovation
New technologies are needed, with short time to market, in order to achieve neutrality. Financing innovation is a must.
Suggestion: raise the budget deficit from 3% to 4% if the extra 1% is spent on innovation and implementation of new technologies toward neutrality.
Generate a coherent system of international cooperation to do research and latter to disseminate the results.
Involve corporate research and bring value added to the generated patents
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Circular Economy
Change economic structure and dynamic from linear to circular
Devise innovative financial schemes for clean technological investments
Change waste liabilities into resource assets through new technologies to minimize and eventually eliminate carbon footprint.