down on global recession fears - gulf times
TRANSCRIPT
Friday, August 16, 2019Dhul-Hijja 15, 1440 AH
BUSINESSGULF TIMES
Earnings beat allays worry over tariff row
Asia markets down on global recession fears
WALMART Q2 | Page 7TRADE WAR | Page 3
QCB FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW: Page 8
Qatar’s Islamic fi nance sector to get central regulation; profi tability remains high
China to counter latest tariff s as Trump vows deal on America termsReutersBeijing/Washington
China yesterday vowed to counter the latest US tariff s on $300bn of Chinese goods but called on the US to meet it
halfway on a potential trade deal, as US Presi-dent Donald Trump said any pact would have to be on America’s terms.
The Chinese fi nance ministry said in a state-ment that Washington’s tariff s, set to start next month, violated a consensus reached between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a June summit in Japan to resolve their disputes via negotiation.
In a separate statement, China’s foreign min-istry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, said, “We hope the US will meet China halfway, and im-plement the consensus of the two heads of the two countries in Osaka.”
China hopes to fi nd mutually acceptable so-lutions through dialogue and consultation on the basis of equality and mutual respect, she added.
Trump, who is seeking re-election in 2020 and had made the economy and his tough stance on China a key part of his 2016 campaign for the White House, yesterday said any agree-ment must meet US demands.
“China, frankly, would love to make a deal, and it’s got to be a deal on proper terms. It’s got to be a deal, frankly, on our terms. Otherwise, what’s the purpose?” Trump said in an inter-view on New Hampshire radio station WGIR.
The trade picture is further complicated by
continuing unrest in Hong Kong, which Trump on Wednesday tied to any possible agreement, saying Xi must fi rst work out the situation in the territory with protesters.
Yesterday, he used Twitter to call on the Chi-nese president to personally meet with protest-ers to spur “a happy and enlightened ending to the Hong Kong problem.”
Trump and Xi in June had agreed to restart trade talks after negotiations stalled earlier this year. But earlier this month, the Trump administration said it would slap duties begin-ning September 1 on $300bn of Chinese goods, which would eff ectively cover all of China’s ex-ports to the US.
Trump backed off part of the plan this week, delaying duties on certain items such as cell-phones, laptops and other consumer goods, in the hopes of blunting their impact on US holi-day sales.
Tariff s will still apply to those products start-ing in mid-December.
The move has roiled global markets and further unnerved investors as the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies stretches into its second year with no end in sight.
China’s threat to impose countermeasures further sent global stocks sprawling yesterday with oil also deepening its slide over recession fears, although US stocks opened higher on Thursday amid strong retail sales data.
Trump, in his radio interview yesterday, dis-missed investors’ worries. “We had a couple of bad days but...we’re going to have some very good days because we had to take on China,” he told WGIR.
German profit warnings signal trade woes may trigger recession
Median ticket size for Qatar residential houses at QR2.8mn in Q2: ValuStrat
BloombergFrankfurt
Germany Inc is flashing recession signals.Major companies in Europe’s largest economy, lead the list of profit warnings issued in the region during the latest earnings season. Daimler AG, BASF SE, Continental AG, Henkel AG, Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Metro AG are among those that have cut their forecasts. Many more have drawn bleak pictures of their prospects.The combined misery of corporate Germany was highlighted on Wednesday, when a report showed a quarterly contraction of the economy, the second in the past year. Surveys for the third quarter have hinted at a further deterioration, with a manufacturing gauge firmly pointing to shrinking output.Adding to the sense of woe, materials maker SGL Carbon SE said late Wednesday its guidance for 2020-2022 is no longer
sustainable and chief executive off icer Juergen Koehler is stepping down. United Internet AG cut its full-year sales forecast and 1&1 Drillisch AG trimmed its revenue prediction.At the heart of companies’ concerns are weaker global growth, dwindling demand from China, and trade tariff s – factors that hurt Germany’s export-heavy industrial sector in particular.Industrial companies have fared worst during the second-quarter earnings season. Expectations for German businesses were comparatively low, but even so, only 41% of them managed to beat sales estimates. The ratio is well above 50% in France, Italy and Spain.The consequences are starting to be felt. Unemployment rose by a total of 62,000 in the three months through July and demand for new workers continued to soften.That’s bad news for a country hoping to make up dwindling exports with consumption and investment. Domestic demand still supported the economy in the second quarter but that
might change once uncertain prospects prompt companies and households to rein in spending.Economists at Deutsche Bank AG and ABN Amro Group NV see Germany’s economy contracting again in the third quarter, pushing the nation in recession – it’s first in six and a half years. Many more analysts say the risk of such a scenario has increased significantly after Wednesday’s report.European banks are already preparing for an economic slump. Loan-loss provisions have risen for a second quarter, after declining during all of 2016 and 2017.Shares in Commerzbank AG, which has revamped its business model to focus on lending to corporate and individual clients in Germany, have slumped to a record low.“Earnings are shrinking and entire sectors are in deep crisis,” said Andreas Lipkow, a strategist at Comdirect Bank AG. “The current eff ects of the trade conflict between the US and China have noticeably arrived at German export companies.”
By Pratap JohnBusiness Editor
Median ticket size for residential houses in Qatar stood at QR2.8mn in the second quarter of this year, research and consultancy firm ValuStrat said in a report.As many as five largest ticket sizes were seen in The Pearl, New Salata, Lusail and Abu Hamour for dwellings ranging from 1,400sq m to 5,500sq m, ValuStrat said in its ‘Qatar Real Estate Market 2nd Quarter 2019 Review’.Median transacted ticket sizes for houses increased by 12% quarterly and 3% annually, it said. Quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase in
median transacted prices can be attributed to larger ticket sizes of housing transactions experienced in areas such as Al Kharaitiyat, Al Markhiya, Lusail, Abu Hamour, Madinat Al Khalifa and Rawdhat Al Hamama, the report said.Transactional volumes for houses declined 25% QoQ and 14% year-on-year (YoY).As many as 53 transactions were recorded for residential buildings in the second quarter with Rawdhat Al Khail, Al Sadd, Najma, Al Wakrah and Muaither having the “largest transacted” prices.As of May this year, transactional volume in The Pearl and West Bay Lagoon was 274 units with a total value of QR612mn, ValuStrat said.Residential median asking rents declined 5.6%
YoY and 1.5% QoQ, while the median monthly asking rent for apartments fell 1.1% quarterly and 5.4% annually. Secondary apartment locations such as Al Wakrah, Old Airport, Najma and Al Mansoura experienced highest annual declines in rents of up to 13%. Median monthly asking rent for villas fell by 4% QoQ and 7.1% YoY. Villas in Muraikh, Al Gharrafa, Ain Khaled, Abu Hamour, Al Khor and Umm Salal Mohammed experienced annual falls in rent up to 12%, ValuStrat noted.In terms of supplies to the industry, ValuStrat said an estimated warehousing space of 500,000sq m gross leasable area (GLA) is projected to be completed by end- 2019.
The average asking rent for dry/ambient warehouses in Qatar was QR34 per sq m, fell by 5% QoQ and 12% YoY.In temperature-controlled warehouses (intended for food and chemical storage), average asking rent fell by 3% QoQ and 11% YoY.The average asking rents for cold storage (being leased per unit wise) ranged from QR8,000 to QR14,000 per month in Doha Industrial Area, where average unit sizes scaled from 50-80sq m, the review said.Net tonnage of bulk cargo more than doubled with Ras Laff an and Hamad Port receiving the highest traff ic until May 2019, ValuStrat said citing data from the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS).
Oil deepens decline on recession fears, China’s trade threatsReutersNew York
Oil prices fell more than 1% yesterday, ex-tending the previous session’s 3% drop, pressured by mounting recession con-
cerns and a surprise boost in US crude invento-ries.
In a sign of investor concern that the world’s biggest economy could be heading for recession, weighing on oil demand, the US Treasury bond yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the fi rst time since 2007.
China’s threat to impose counter-measures in retaliation for the latest US tariff s on $300 bn of Chinese goods also weighed on oil prices.
Brent crude fell as much as $1.81, or 3%, to $57.67 a barrel. The international benchmark was $1.23, or 2.1%, lower at $58.25 and West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was down 75 cents, or 1.4%, to $54.48 by 12.32pm ET (1632 GMT)
“Oil is getting whacked again as risk-aversion again kicks in and fears of a trade war infl icted slowdown grip traders,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. “WTI had enjoyed a decent rebound over the last week but failed at the fi rst hurdle, running into resistance around the mid-July lows before plunging once again.”
The price of Brent is still up 10% this year thanks to supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, a group known as Opec+.
In July, Opec+ agreed to extend oil output cuts until March 2020 to prop up prices.
A Saudi offi cial on August 8 indicated more steps may be coming.
But the eff orts of Opec+ have been outweighed by worries about the global economy amid the US-China trade dispute and uncertainty over Brexit, as well as rising US stockpiles of crude and higher output of US shale oil. “The market is becoming very anxious about global growth,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.
China reported disappointing data for July, including a surprise drop in industri-al output growth to a more than 17-year low. A slump in exports sent Germany’s economy into reverse in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, a second week of unexpected rises in US crude inventories is adding to the pressure.
US crude stocks grew by 1.6mn barrels last week, compared with expectations for a drop of 2.8mn barrels, the Energy Information Adminis-tration (EIA) said.
Providing some support to US crude prices, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, fell by about 2mn barrels in the week to August 13, traders said, citing data from market intelligence fi rm Genscape.
That helped narrow US crude’s discount to Brent to as little as $3.60 a barrel, near the small-est level since March 2018.
US President Donald Trump meets with China’s President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan on June 29. The Chinese finance ministry said in a statement that US tariff s, set to start next month, violated a consensus reached between Trump and Xi at the June summit to resolve their disputes via negotiation.
A jobseeker enters an employment off ice in Munich (file). Germany’s unemployment rose by a total of 62,000 in the three months through July and demand for new workers continued to soften.
The US Treasury bond yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the fi rst time since 2007
BUSINESS
Gulf Times Friday, August 16, 20192
ReutersHong Kong
The Hong Kong government un-veiled a HK$19.1bn ($2.4bn) package yesterday to support a
slowing economy as escalating political protests and the prolonged US-China trade war weigh heavily on the Asian fi -nancial centre.
Financial Secretary Paul Chan an-nounced the package at a news confer-ence as anti-government protests roiled Hong Kong for the third month.
He said the government is expecting to lower its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0%-1%, from the original 2%-3%.
The measures include subsidies for the underprivileged and business en-terprises, as well as somewhat higher salary tax rebates.
The off -cycle support came ahead of the annual policy address in October and the budget, scheduled for early next year. Chan insisted the intervention was not related to political pressure from the protests. “It is prudent and reasonable to assume that the economic headwinds will continue to be very strong,” he said.
The government will also provide a 90% guarantee for approved loans to small and medium sized businesses, cre-ate more construction jobs, and hand HK$2.3bn of subsidies to 900,000 school students. Hong Kong will release its latest economic forecasts along with second-quarter data today, though analysts said the April-June readings would not give a full picture of the sharp shock to busi-nesses seen in the last two months.
Ten weeks of increasingly violent confrontations between police and demonstrators have plunged the in-ternational business hub into its worst crisis since it reverted from British to Chinese rule in 1997.
Tourists are cancelling hotel book-ings and retailers are forecasting a sharp drop in sales, adding to the pressure
on local businesses from the year-long trade war and China’s broader eco-nomic slowdown. Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam last week warned the next downturn will hit the city’s economy like a “tsunami”, and said her adminis-tration will provide more “daring meas-
ures” in supporting growth. But Chan’s package is unlikely to ease the down-ward pressure on Hong Kong’s small and open economy, said Cliff Tan, East Asian head of global markets research at MUFG. “The world’s going into re-cession... Hong Kong will not be able
to somehow ride that out without being aff ected,” he said, adding that China’s economy was also struggling.
Preliminary data showed Hong Kong’s economy expanded 0.6% in April-June from a year earlier, in line with the fi rst quarter’s decade-low pace
and much less than economists expect-ed. But GDP contracted 0.3% on a quar-ter-on-quarter basis. Research fi rm Capital Economics warned the protests could push Hong Kong into a recession, or risk “an even worse outcome if a fur-ther escalation triggers capital fl ight”.
Protest-hit Hong Kong unveils $2.4bn package
Demonstrators and travellers leave Hong Kong International Airport along a road towards Tung Chung in Hong Kong. The government unveiled a HK$19.1bn ($2.4bn) package yesterday to support a slowing economy as escalating political protests and the prolonged US-China trade war weigh heavily on the Asian financial centre.
SoftBank’s massive new fund has scored an unexpected winBloombergTokyo
As SoftBank Group Corp prepares to choose
targets for its second technology fund, it’s already
winning trust from investors that the company’s
debt situation probably won’t worsen.
Billionaire Masayoshi Son’s firm has about
¥7.4tn ($70bn) of debt, among the biggest piles for
a Japanese non-financial company, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg. SoftBank has com-
mitted $38bn of its capital for the second fund. But
figures like those haven’t increased concern in the
credit market about the company’s finances.
That’s because as the company increasingly
takes on more characteristics of an investment
firm, SoftBank Group’s debt should be measured
in terms of the value of its shareholdings, and by
that gauge, its balance sheet is relatively healthy,
analysts say. The company also has a policy of not
lending to, or guaranteeing loans to, major compa-
nies it invests in, limiting its liabilities. SoftBank is
a “strict parent” in that regard, requiring units to
boost revenue on their own, according to Daiwa
Securities Group Inc.
“It may appear to be a risk that a lot of money
is being moved around, but it shouldn’t be con-
sidered regular debt,” said Mana Nakazora, chief
credit analyst at BNP Paribas SA. “SoftBank’s story
until now has been of borrowing large amounts
numerous times but then taking care of the debt.”
In one sign that the big new investments aren’t
sparking credit-market concern, the cost to insure
SoftBank Group’s debt against nonpayment has
fallen more than 100 basis points this year to 165
basis points, according to credit-default swap data
from CMA. SoftBank said the second Vision Fund,
which aims to raise $108bn, is expected to collect
money from Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Foxconn
Technology Group and the sovereign wealth
fund of Kazakhstan. It’s also won support from
Japanese financial institutions, with seven identi-
fied as signing memorandums of understanding
to participate. SoftBank in June disclosed the first
fund had earned 62% returns so far after investing
$64.2bn in 71 deals.
To judge its leverage, analysts have been look-
ing at a metric called loan-to-value ratio, which
measures net debt against the value of a holding
company’s investments. Son has said he wants
to keep the gauge below 25%. It was 19% as of
Wednesday, according to SoftBank data.
That ratio may worsen due to the second fund,
according to Kentaro Harada, a senior credit
analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. It could ap-
proach 35%, assuming that money for investment
is raised only via debt, he wrote in a report. But
SoftBank has said that some of the profit from the
first fund will be used to finance the second one,
and that the company is intent on keeping the
gauge below 25%, Harada added.
Investment timing
To prevent the ratio from exceeding that level,
SoftBank may need to sell about ¥3tn of assets
over the next four to five years during which the
second fund will be in operation, Harada said.
SoftBank Group’s financial policy is to keep
the loan-to-value ratio under 25% with an upper
threshold of 35%, maintain a cash position that
covers bond redemptions for at least the next two
years, and secure sustainable distribution and
dividend income from SoftBank Vision Fund and
other subsidiaries, a company spokesman said.
Investors should seek spreads on SoftBank
Group’s bonds to compensate for risks tied to the
company’s fundamentals that make its securi-
ties sensitive to changes in broad market risk
sentiment, CreditSights said in a report. Those
factors include a complex capital structure, fund
investments that generate little regular cash flow,
an aggressive management team, and a financial
policy that uses a metric based on equity market
valuations, it said.
Despite the big size of the second fund, debt
investors should calmly judge its credit impact
on SoftBank, considering that it will take time for
the investments to be completed, according to
Toshiyasu Ohashi, the chief credit analyst at Daiwa
Securities in Tokyo. One factor that’s relevant for
SoftBank’s credit quality is that SoftBank doesn’t
tend to lend to its major units, unlike other Japa-
nese companies that might help out subsidiar-
ies by providing debt funds, he said. The focus
instead is on how much its invested firms can
generate profits themselves.
“The company’s management style is logical,”
Ohashi said.
S Korea imports more US oil in July as Iran shipments on holdReutersSeoul
South Korea’s oil imports from the United States and the United Arab Emir-
ates jumped in July, with Iranian shipments remaining at zero for a third month due to US sanc-tions, customs data showed yes-terday.
South Korea, typically one of Tehran’s major Asian oil cus-tomers, halted importing Iranian crude from May after the US government announced an end to all waivers on such shipments.
In July last year, before the re-imposed sanctions, South Korea imported 788,651 tonnes of crude oil from Iran, or 185,715 barrels per day (bpd), according to the customs data.
South Korean oil buyers previ-ously tended to import conden-sate, or an ultra-light form of crude oil, from Iran.
In the fi rst seven months of this year, South Korea’s intake of Iranian oil dropped 44.1% to 3.87mn tonnes, or 133,321 bpd, versus 6.92mn tonnes during the same period a year earlier, the data showed.
In the absence of Iranian oil imports, South Korea’s imports from the United States almost tripled to 1.91mn tonnes in July, or 463,922 bpd, from the year before.
In July, the United States was South Korea’s second-biggest crude oil supplier, overtaking Kuwait.
South Korea imported a record 60.23mn barrels, or 332,751 bpd of US crude in the fi rst-half, and its demand for US oil was expected to remain fi rm in the second-half on the back of Iran sanctions and rising US crude output, according to data and analysts.
Overall, South Korea’s July crude imports fell 10.5% to 11.53mn tonnes, or 2.72mn bpd, from a year earlier, according to the data.
Crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia, South Korea’s top oil supplier, were 3.34mn tonnes in July, or 787,495 bpd, up 1.7% from a year earlier.
Last month, South Korea also increased its imports from the United Arab Emirates.
Its UAE crude oil imports jumped 34.8% year-on-year to 1.13mn tonnes in July, or 265,470 bpd. For the January-July period this year, the country’s crude imports decreased 3.2% year-on-year to about 84.2mn tonnes, or around 3.4mn bpd, the cus-toms data showed.
The country’s fi nal July crude imports data will be released by state-run Korea National Oil Corp (KNOC) later this month.
‘Australia faces major risk from trade war’Sino-US trade dispute causing uncertainty for business: RBA; reluctance to invest runs the risk of self-fulfilling downturn; Australia July jobs growth beats forecast, unemployment at 5.2%; economists expect 2 more RBA rate cuts by February
ReutersSydney
As the Sino-US trade war raise fears of a global recession, businesses run the risk of be-
ing caught in a self-fulfi lling vicious cycle, a top Australian central banker warned yesterday, threatening the country’s sturdy jobs market.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deputy governor Guy Debelle said the trade war was a “major risk” for the country’s A$1.9tn ($1.3tn) economy though it has not had a damaging ef-fect so far.
Supporting that view, data out yesterday showed Australia added a forecast-beating 41,100 net new jobs in July.
Still, that wasn’t enough to budge the employment rate from a disap-pointingly high 5.2%
Analysts and policymakers have raised doubts over whether jobs growth can extend further as trade war-related uncertainties lead com-panies to downgrade their future hir-ing intentions.
“Businesses are waiting to see how the uncertainty resolves rather than invest,” Debelle said in a speech in Sydney.
“The longer businesses hold off , the weaker demand will be, which will further confi rm the decision to wait. That runs the risk of a self-fulfi lling downturn.”
Debelle also cautioned that the dis-pute over technology could prove even more damaging in the long run, forc-ing fi rms to choose between East or
West rather than selling into a global market.
The warning comes as fears of a possible global recession hammered fi nancial markets around the world.
The protracted Sino-US trade war has been a major worry for policymak-ers, with many central banks switch-ing gears in recent months to deliver rate cuts to support growth.
US stocks slid 3% overnight while yields on 10-year Treasuries fell below those on two-year paper.
That inversion of the curve has been a reliable predictor of recessions in the past. Debelle was not yet considering the inversion as a harbinger of an eco-nomic recession.
“The yield going inverted, I’m not sure how much of a signal that is at the moment,” he said in response to ques-tions following the speech.
“At the moment, the US economy is actually growing above trend so they’ve got a fair way to slow from here.” Australia’s economy has
dodged a recession since the early 1990s thanks to insatiable appetite from China for its key commodities but growth has now slowed to the weakest since the global financial crisis.
Domestically, Debelle said the other key risk was sluggish household con-sumption given unusually slow growth in incomes and wages.
This was one reason the RBA cut in-terest rates by a quarter point in both June and July, taking them to a record low of 1%. Financial markets are fully pricing in two more rate cuts by early next year.
Earlier in the day, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said it sees the RBA cash rate at 0.5% by February as lead-ing indicators of labour demand weak-en and on risks to global growth.
The RBA has singled out the labour market as the touchstone for whether it needs to cut rates again.
It has set an aspirational goal of reaching a jobless rate of 4.5%, a tough
ask given it has been stuck above 5% since February. “We do not expect much of an increase in wages growth although employment growth is ex-pected to be reasonable,” said Debelle.
Most economists expect the unem-ployment rate to rise further to around 5.5% this year led by an increase in working age population entering the labour force.
“Even now, the ratio of unemployed job applicants to job advertisements remains elevated at 4.5x.
This arguably needs to fall in order for wages growth to accelerate,” Citi economist Josh Williamson said.
“The prospect of ongoing labour market spare capacity and what this means for ongoing soft wages and do-mestic infl ation should therefore push the RBA into more policy stimulus,” Williamson added.
“We continue to expect a 25 bps rate cut at the November RBA Board meet-ing and don’t rule out a further move next year.”
Masayoshi Son, chairman and chief executive off icer of SoftBank Group, at a press conference in Tokyo. The Japanese firm prepares to choose targets for its second technology fund, it’s already winning trust from investors that the company’s debt situation probably won’t worsen.
BUSINESS3Gulf Times
Friday, August 16, 2019
AFPHong Kong
Asian markets fell yesterday after the Dow suff ered its worst day of the year as fears of a global re-
cession mounted with investors fl eeing equities.
Tokyo’s key Nikkei index nosedived nearly 2% at the open before recovering slightly to fi nish 1.2% down at 20,405.6 .The losses followed a dark day on Eu-ropean bourses and on Wall Street, with all three US benchmarks tumbling around 3% and US bond yields plung-ing as investors deserted stocks for safer Treasury assets.
“The Japanese stock market is sliding against the backdrop of sharp falls in US shares,” Okasan Online Securities said in a note.
“Worries over the US economic re-cession grew, while negative econom-ic data for China and Germany also prompted investors to downgrade their views on the global economy,” Mizuho Securities added.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note briefl y slid below the yield on the two-year bond, a so-called “inversion” that has been a reliable harbinger of re-cession for decades.
Coming on the back of an intensify-ing US-China trade war that shows no signs of resolution, the fl ight to bonds signalled the growing fears of a global recession.
“US-China trade tensions have me-tastasised into something more sinis-ter by aff ecting global growth to such a large degree that bond markets are pricing-in a high probability of a world-wide recession,” warned Stephen Innes, managing partner at VM Markets.
The trade war has hammered global demand, with Chinese industrial out-put hitting a 17-year low while invest-ment and retail sales have also slowed in the world’s number two economy.
Weeks of pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong have added to the climate of uncertainty, with Beijing referring to the increasingly violent demonstra-tions as “terrorism”, stoking fears of a Chinese crackdown.
Sydney plummeted nearly 3% while Singapore shed 1.2%.
But Hong Kong recovered from early
losses, adding 0.8% at 25,495.46 after opening 1.5% down.
Shanghai closed 0.3% higher at 2,815.80 after shedding 1.7% at the open. Economists have warned for months that the trade tensions were threatening investment and dampening global senti-ment, which is already suff ering due to China’s slowdown and fears over Brex-
it’s impact on Britain and Europe. “The now drawn out US-China trade war has sapped investor confi dence.
It is now threatening to turn what would have been an orderly and gentle slowdown, after ten years of uninter-rupted growth, into something po-tentially much more aggressive,” said Jeff rey Halley, senior market analyst
at OANDA. The rush to safe-haven in-vestments saw gold breach the $1,500 level on Wednesday and stay in that ter-ritory.
“Gold has consolidated nicely... and may be poised for further gains.
The sea of red in asset markets glo-bally over the last 24 hours may rein-force this view”, Halley said.
Asia stock markets downon global recession fears
Pedestrians stand in front of an electronic quotation board displaying the numbers on the Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Tokyo’s key Nikkei index nosedived nearly 2% at the open before recovering slightly to finish 1.2% down at 20,405.6 yesterday.
LME open-outcry trading holds off electronic challengeBy Andy HomeLondon
The London Metal Exchange (LME) is
now the only open-outcry market in
Europe and one of the last in the world.
The London Stock Exchange closed
its trading floor as long ago as 1986.
The London International Financial
Futures Exchange permanently shut
the last of its pits in 2000, taking with
it the bright-jacketed traders that
enlivened the grey Cityscape.
The electronic tide has since swept
all before it, leaving the LME one of
the last human hold-outs with its ring
of red leather seats, baff ling hand
signals and old-school etiquette.
The LME’s nine ring-dealing mem-
bers were therefore understandably
nervous about the exchange’s inten-
tion in mid-March to trial an electronic
close for the last of the ring sessions.
The results of the three-month
experiment, however, generated no
compelling evidence either for or
against open-outcry trading.
The members themselves, mean-
while, seem to have discovered a
startlingly simple way of boosting the
amount of trade conducted across the
dealing floor.
Reference points
The longevity of open outcry on the
LME – owned since 2012 by Hong Kong
Exchanges and Clearing – has surprised
even the metals-trading community.
Few would have bet that the ring
sessions, dating back to the ex-
change’s formation in the Jerusalem
Coff ee House in the 1870s, would
have made it into the 21st century, let
alone still be going today. But they
perform two critical functions. The
first is to facilitate time-spread trading,
a labyrinthine structure on the LME
due to the exchange’s unique daily
prompt date structure. The second is
to generate two globally significant
price reference points over the course
of the trading day.
The “off icial” prices set during the
lunchtime ring sessions are embed-
ded in physical supply contracts
around the world, forming the core of
the exchange’s price discovery role.
Industrial hedgers are “highly
supportive of Ring settlements”, to
quote the LME’s “Strategic Pathway”
document from 2017.
However, the physical supply chain
has little or no interest in the second
pricing point – the “closing” prices that
are set at the end of the afternoon
ring sessions. Financial players, on
the other hand, have no interest in the
“off icial” prices but do care a lot about
the “closing” prices because they have
mark-to-market and margining impact.
This part of the LME user commu-
nity would also “in general prefer an
electronically-derived closing price,”
according to the exchange.
Hence the idea of a trial for one
metal, nickel, using the exchange’s
electronic platform to generate a
volume-weighted average price
(VWAP) “close”. The experiment was
conducted only on “outright” three-
month metal with spreads trading
staying on the floor.
Countdown to the close
Complaints about the accuracy of the
LME “closes” have been around as long
as anyone can remember, even though
past bad behaviour such as “banging
the close” has largely been remedied by
successive waves of regulation.
The electronic nickel trial has
revealed some divergence between
ring-determined and VWAP-set clos-
ing prices. The LME noted that 40% of
ring-discovered closing nickel prices
were outside of the available price
range on the LME electronic Select
system during the one-minute slot
used to determine the close.
Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange. LME is now the only open-outcry market in Europe and one of the last in the world.
Hong Kong faces new threat as Chinese companies reconsider IPOsBloombergHong Kong
Several Chinese companies are rethink-
ing fundraising plans in Hong Kong as
anti-government protests rock the city, an
ominous sign for its future as a financial
gateway between Asia’s largest economy
and the rest of the world.
One company scrapped preliminary
preparations for a $500mn initial public
off ering in Hong Kong partly because
of the unrest and will instead pursue a
US listing, according to a senior banker
on the deal, who asked not to be named
discussing private information.
Another banker said at least two com-
panies are considering the same move
for IPOs worth a combined $1bn, adding
that final decisions will depend on market
conditions and whether the turmoil in
Hong Kong eases.
Police try to disperse protesters in
Sham Shui Po on August 14.
While the deals represent a small
portion of the money raised by Chinese
businesses in Hong Kong in recent years,
they bode ill for the city’s status as one of
the world’s premier financial hubs.
Two senior bankers said Chinese clients
are worried about more than just this
week’s shutdown of Hong Kong’s airport
and other logistical headaches caused
by the protests; they’re also questioning
whether the city will remain a stable place
to do business over the long term.
“The social and political instability
has had an impact on people’s percep-
tions,” said David Cho, a partner at law
firm Dechert LLP based in Hong Kong.
“The pipeline isn’t looking strong for the
remainder of the year, and things could
get even worse if China decides to crack
down more forcefully in Hong Kong.”
The city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index
has tumbled 12% over the past three
weeks as clashes between protesters
and police turned increasingly violent,
raising fears that the Chinese military may
intervene to restore order.
The S&P 500 Index fell about 5% dur-
ing the same period.
Chinese companies accounted for
$9bn of the $11bn raised via IPOs in the
former British colony this year, as well as
about 80% of bond sales in the city, data
compiled by Bloomberg show. Outstand-
ing China-related loans by Hong Kong
banks totalled more than $560bn at the
end of the first quarter, according to the
Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
The city faces competition from inter-
national hubs like the US and Singapore,
as well as financial centres in mainland
China.
A gradual loosening of restrictions on
foreign investment has turned Shanghai
and Shenzhen into increasingly feasible
options for Chinese firms who want ac-
cess to overseas funds.
Even so, few expect China Inc to
abandon Hong Kong’s financial system
en masse. US markets are seen as a more
stable, but their appeal to Chinese issuers
has also diminished somewhat in recent
months as the trade war soured relations
between the two countries.
One closely watched test of Hong
Kong’s appeal is Alibaba Group Holding
Ltd’s proposed mega-listing in the city.
The e-commerce giant has filed a list-
ing application for a share sale that may
raise as much as $20bn, people familiar
with the matter said in June, but the com-
pany has stayed quiet about its intentions
since the protests escalated.
Even if the Alibaba deal proceeds as
planned, there’s little doubt that Chinese
executives have become more wary of
Hong Kong.
In addition to those rethinking IPOs,
several are cancelling or postponing
meetings with investors in the city to
avoid the risk of getting caught up in
protest-related violence or travel disrup-
tions, bankers said. Some are using video
conferences instead.
Hong Kong’s turmoil has aff ected the
financial industry in other ways.
BlackRock Inc, the world’s largest asset
manager, postponed its Asia Media Forum
in the city to February from Septem-
ber, a company spokeswoman said on
Wednesday, so that “as many partners as
possible” would be able to join.
While CLSA Ltd plans to go ahead with
its popular annual forum in Hong Kong
next month, the investment bank has
hired a private security company for the
event and is working on contingency
plans that include a livestream in case
some delegates are unable or unwilling to
attend in person.
Rouble drops to 66.5 against US dollar
ReutersMoscow
The rouble fell yesterday to its lowest level against the dollar since early May on
domestic demand for hard cur-rency in Russia and amid con-cerns over a global economic slowdown.
At 1050 GMT, the rouble was 0.7% weaker against the dollar at 66.49, its lowest level since May 3.
The rouble also lost 0.8% ver-sus the euro, sliding to 74.15 for the fi rst time since April.
“Markets have failed to hold on to fragile optimism from hopes of a de-escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China,” ana-lysts from BCS Premier broker-age said.
The analysts expect the rou-ble to remain in the range of 65-66.5 against the dollar.
The latest fi nancial market turbulence has been prompted by an inversion in the US Treas-ury yield curve for the fi rst time in 12 years.
The inversion, where two-year yields trade higher than 10-year yields, is considered an early signal of a looming reces-sion.
A steep sell-off in global markets has also been fuelled by weak data from China and Germany which have cemented concerns about the probability of a global economic slowdown.
In Russia, companies looking to make rouble-denominated dividend payments, which tend to be converted quickly into other currencies such as the dollar and the euro, could be stoking demand for foreign cur-rency, a dealer at a major West-ern bank in Russia said.
Prices for oil, Russia’s main export, deepened losses on Thursday, pressured by mount-ing recession concerns and a surprise boost in US crude in-ventories.
Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia’s main export, was down 2.24% at $58.15 a barrel.
The dollar-denominated RTS index fell by 1.2% to 1,244 points, while the rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.4% lower at 2,625 points.
Yen rallies again as market selloff extends on recession fearsReutersLondon
The yen strengthened again yesterday as
signals from the bond market that the US
economy could be headed for a recession
unnerved investors.
Foreign exchange markets have
remained relatively calm despite big moves
in bond markets this week, where investors
have piled into government debt in anticipa-
tion of a global growth slowdown.
But the safe-haven Japanese yen has
strengthened as investors looked for safety.
After initially falling in early trading yester-
day, the currency was back in demand as
European stock markets fell and investors
flooded into safer assets.
The latest turbulence in financial markets
was triggered by an inversion in the US
Treasury yield curve for the first time in 12
years. The closely watched inversion, where
two-year yields trade higher than 10-year
yields, has historically preceded previous
economic recessions.
“Market-related headlines this morn-
ing have been dominated by yield
curve inversion and the recessionary
implications that follow,” Rabobank
said in a note to clients. Sentiment was
already fragile after economic data from
China and Germany earlier in the week
revealed the extent of the damage the
China-US trade dispute is causing to the
world economy.
The yen, down 0.3% at the start of the
London trading session, was last up 0.1% at
105.85. On Wednesday, the yen rallied 0.8%
versus the greenback, its biggest daily gain
in two weeks. The dollar index, which meas-
ures its value against a basket of six major
currencies, fell 0.1% to 97.853, unchanged on
the day. The euro edged higher against the
dollar, rising 0.2% to $1.1155.
Elsewhere, Norway’s crown weakened
after its central bank, the Norges bank, said
its policy outlook was now more uncertain,
raising doubts about whether it would raise
rates later in 2019.
BUSINESS
Gulf Times Friday, August 16, 20194
Zad Holding CoWidam Food CoVodafone Qatar
United Development CoSalam International Investme
Qatar & Oman Investment CoQatar Navigation
Qatar National Cement CoQatar National Bank
Qatar Islamic InsuranceQatar Industrial Manufactur
Qatar International IslamicQatari Investors Group
Qatar Islamic BankQatar Gas Transport(Nakilat)Qatar General Insurance & ReQatar German Co For Medical
Qatar Fuel QscQatar First Bank
Qatar Electricity & Water CoQatar Exchange Index Etf
Qatar Cinema & Film DistribAl Rayan Qatar Etf
Qatar Insurance CoQatar Aluminum Manufacturing
Ooredoo QpscNational Leasing
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate DevMesaieed Petrochemical Holdi
Al Meera Consumer Goods CoMedicare Group
Mannai Corporation QscMasraf Al Rayan
Al Khalij Commercial BankIndustries Qatar
Islamic Holding GroupInvestment Holding Group
Gulf Warehousing CompanyGulf International Services
Ezdan Holding GroupDoha Insurance Co
Doha Bank QpscDlala Holding
Commercial Bank PqscBarwa Real Estate Co
Al Khaleej Takaful GroupAl Ahli Bank
13.30
6.05
1.25
1.39
0.40
0.51
6.00
5.80
17.70
5.85
3.22
7.57
2.01
15.00
2.20
3.35
0.62
21.40
0.34
14.60
9.45
2.00
2.40
2.94
0.77
6.26
0.67
0.74
2.51
14.20
6.99
3.48
3.48
1.15
9.92
2.10
0.54
4.72
1.53
0.61
1.05
2.50
0.71
4.20
3.30
1.70
0.73
0.00
-0.82
-4.58
-2.80
-3.65
-3.98
-2.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.31
-2.07
-2.43
0.00
0.46
-2.62
-2.54
1.42
-2.62
0.69
-2.23
-9.50
0.00
-2.97
-2.54
-2.19
-0.89
-1.07
0.40
-3.07
-0.14
-1.69
-0.57
0.88
-0.80
-2.33
-1.82
-2.68
-1.92
-2.25
0.00
-2.72
-2.07
-0.24
0.61
-0.58
-0.41
16,569
343,915
2,642,926
1,651,240
1,072,767
111,040
725,122
157,545
3,305,353
60,177
211,558
304,237
275,882
792,746
3,254,629
22,306
109,247
722,586
7,963,800
943,764
46,500
700
149,334
1,876,447
3,545,436
1,055,931
1,333,329
465,547
4,037,884
233,748
38,735
46,118
2,851,296
59,000
1,685,418
174,225
1,161,646
383,689
204,803
7,632,968
-
3,893,074
421,310
1,976,965
1,658,016
1,125,295
342,020
QATAR
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
KUWAIT
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
OMAN
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
KUWAIT
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
KUWAIT
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
Oman PackagingOman Oil Marketing Company
Oman National Engineering AnOman Investment & Finance
Oman Intl MarketingOman Flour Mills
Oman Fisheries CoOman Europe Foods Industries
Oman Education & Training InOman Chromite
Oman ChlorineOman Ceramic Company
Oman Cement CoOman Cables Industry
Oman & Emirates Inv(Om)50%Natl Aluminium Products
National Real Estate DevelopNational Mineral Water
National Life & General InsuNational Gas Co
National Finance CoNational Detergent Co Saog
National Biscuit IndustriesNational Bank Of Oman Saog
Muscat Thread Mills CoMuscat Insurance Co Saog
Muscat Gases Company SaogMuscat Finance
Muscat City Desalination CoMajan Glass Company
Majan CollegeHsbc Bank Oman
Hotels Management Co InternaGulf Stone
Gulf Mushroom CompanyGulf Investments Services
Gulf Invest. Serv. Pref-SharGulf International Chemicals
Gulf Hotels (Oman) Co LtdGlobal Fin Investment
Galfar Engineering&ContractGalfar Engineering -Prefer
Financial Services Co.Financial Corp/The
Dhofar TourismDhofar Poultry
Dhofar Intl DevelopmentDhofar Insurance
Dhofar Generating Co SaocDhofar Fisheries & Food Indu
Dhofar CattlefeedDhofar Beverages Co
Construction Materials IndComputer Stationery Inds
Bankmuscat SaogBank Nizwa
Bank Dhofar SaogArabia Falcon Insurance Co
Aloula CoAl-Omaniya Financial Service
Al-Hassan Engineering CoAl-Fajar Al-Alamia Co
Al-Anwar Ceramic Tiles CoAl Suwadi Power
Al Sharqiya Invest HoldingAl Maha Petroleum Products M
Al Maha Ceramics Co SaocAl Madina Takaful Co Saoc
Al Madina Investment CoAl Kamil Power Co
Al Jazerah Services -PfdAl Jazeera Steel Products Co
Al Jazeera ServicesAl Izz Islamic Bank
Al Buraimi HotelAl Batinah PowerAl Batinah Hotels
Al Batinah Dev & InvAl Anwar Holdings Saog
Al Ahlia Insurance Co SaocAhli Bank
Acwa Power Barka SaogAbrasives Manufacturing Co S
A’saff a Foods Saog0Man Oil Marketing Co-Pref
#N/A Invalid Security#N/A Invalid Security
0.27
1.07
0.12
0.12
0.52
0.65
0.08
1.00
0.23
3.64
0.38
0.42
0.22
0.81
0.08
0.25
5.00
0.09
0.29
0.16
0.14
0.70
3.92
0.17
0.08
0.78
0.14
0.06
0.11
0.18
0.17
0.12
1.25
0.12
0.31
0.08
0.11
0.14
9.50
0.07
0.08
0.39
0.18
0.10
0.49
0.18
0.30
0.17
0.19
1.28
0.13
0.26
0.04
0.26
0.43
0.09
0.14
0.10
0.53
0.08
0.02
0.75
0.10
0.07
0.08
0.80
0.17
0.08
0.02
0.38
0.55
0.23
0.12
0.07
0.88
0.07
1.13
0.08
0.09
0.32
0.12
0.66
0.05
0.60
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.21
0.00
0.00
-19.93
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.73
0.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.11
0.00
2.68
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
-
3,653,093
-
-
394,000
-
-
-
-
-
38,400
-
-
6,000
-
-
-
21,200
-
-
-
11,000
-
-
-
35,000
6,482
-
28,000
24,381
-
-
-
18,200
-
-
-
-
395,780
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
174,727
-
-
-
-
-
524,114
4,583
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,755,299
109,545
140,000
-
-
1,556,143
-
-
-
-
443,194
-
-
244,960
-
-
148,000
-
22,153
-
-
-
-
-
-
Al-Madar Finance & Invt CoGulf Petroleum Investment
Mabanee Co SakcInovest Co Bsc
Al-Deera Holding CoMena Real Estate Co
Amar Finance & Leasing CoUnited Projects For Aviation
National Consumer Holding CoAmwal International InvestmeEquipment Holding Co K.S.C.C
Arkan Al Kuwait Real EstateGfh Financial Group Bsc
Energy House Holding Co KscpKuwait Co For Process PlantAl Maidan Dental Clinic Co KNational Shooting CompanyAl-Ahleia Insurance Co Sakp
Wethaq Takaful Insurance CoSalbookh Trading Co Kscp
Aqar Real Estate InvestmentsHayat Communications
Soor Fuel Marketing Co KscTamkeen Holding Co
Alargan International RealBurgan Co For Well Drilling
Kuwait Resorts Co KsccOula Fuel Marketing Co
Palms Agro Production CoMubarrad Holding Co Ksc
Shuaiba Industrial CoAan Digital Services Co
First Takaful Insurance CoKuwaiti Syrian Holding Co
National Cleaning CompanyUnited Real Estate Company
AgilityKuwait & Middle East Fin Inv
Fujairah Cement IndustriesLivestock Transport & Tradng
International Resorts CoNational Industries Grp Hold
Warba Insurance CoFirst Dubai Real Estate Deve
Al Arabi Group Holding CoKuwait Hotels Sak
Mobile Telecommunications CoEff ect Real Estate Co
Tamdeen Real Estate Co KscAl Mudon Intl Real Estate Co
Kuwait Cement Co KscSharjah Cement & Indus Devel
Kuwait Portland Cement CoEducational Holding Group
Bahrain Kuwait InsuranceAsiya Capital Investments Co
Kuwait Investment CoBurgan Bank
Kuwait Projects Co HoldingsAl Madina For Finance And In
Kuwait Insurance CoAl Masaken Intl Real Estate
Intl Financial AdvisorsFirst Investment Co Kscc
Al Mal Investment CompanyBayan Investment Co Kscc
Egypt Kuwait Holding Co SaeCoast Investment Development
Privatization Holding CompanInjazzat Real State Company
Kuwait Cable Vision SakSanam Real Estate Co Kscc
Ithmaar Holding BscAviation Lease And Finance C
Arzan Financial Group For FiAjwan Gulf Real Estate Co
Kuwait Business Town Real EsFuture Kid Entertainment And
Specialities Group Holding CAbyaar Real Eastate Developm
Dar Al Thuraya Real Estate CKgl Logistics Company Kscc
Combined Group ContractingJiyad Holding Co Ksc
Warba Capital Holding CoGulf Investment House Ksc
Boubyan Bank K.S.CAhli United Bank B.S.C
Osos Holding Group Co
102.00
23.20
799.00
68.50
12.50
39.70
38.40
440.00
55.00
56.00
20.00
81.00
70.00
21.50
203.00
1,240.00
12.30
420.00
29.00
43.00
81.00
80.00
122.00
6.30
130.00
89.10
56.00
122.00
59.00
62.10
160.00
18.10
42.50
43.50
61.00
64.70
783.00
65.00
54.70
185.00
13.30
253.00
65.00
28.20
75.70
100.00
580.00
24.00
309.00
18.90
285.00
67.40
1,210.00
320.00
200.00
35.10
141.00
349.00
224.00
17.50
339.00
65.00
16.50
34.10
12.90
44.00
450.00
34.90
56.00
82.00
20.00
41.00
22.30
273.00
27.90
12.90
41.50
99.00
77.00
13.70
179.00
40.60
240.00
46.50
79.90
53.00
597.00
284.00
103.00
2.00
-1.69
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-4.76
0.00
-0.14
0.00
-1.46
0.00
0.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
0.18
0.00
0.00
-0.16
0.00
-11.27
0.00
0.00
1.67
-0.46
-1.63
1.72
2.43
-7.04
0.76
-2.32
0.00
0.71
0.00
0.00
-3.01
0.00
0.00
-1.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1.13
-1.40
-0.85
-0.88
-5.91
-0.29
0.00
-2.94
-0.87
-0.77
3.53
-1.32
-1.69
0.00
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
-2.50
-1.41
-1.53
0.00
0.00
0.79
-4.20
0.00
-1.22
-2.83
0.87
0.00
-0.56
-0.50
-0.35
-1.90
1,170,211
1,856,694
1,000,093
-
26,000
2,499,451
-
-
-
-
40,500
-
1,316,810
400
25,000
-
169,989
-
-
1,253,141
-
-
4,238
4,200
-
19,863
180,078
4,261
-
81,898
-
16,247,796
-
20,001
131,631
28,189
798,563
970,965
100
8,511
75,100
14,416,839
-
294,500
38,470
-
9,108,700
-
-
385,300
-
-
3,000
47,000
-
700,373
691,360
2,090,581
367,146
3,906,358
10,000
-
2,656,121
5,283,984
569,138
101,562
240
364,467
84,800
1,900
-
-
-
276,453
2,855,273
10,885,727
-
-
1,151,452
6,090,660
-
1,180,516
990,043
416,476
-
18,533
896,858
4,562,772
53,358
Al-Eid Food KscQurain Petrochemical Industr
Advanced Technology CoEkttitab Holding Co Sak
Real Estate Trade Centers CoAcico Industries Co Kscc
Kipco Asset Management CoNational Petroleum Services
Alimtiaz Investment GroupRas Al Khaimah White Cement
Kuwait Reinsurance Co KscKuwait & Gulf Link Transport
Humansoft Holding Co KscAutomated Systems Co Kscc
Metal & Recycling CoGulf Franchising Holding Co
Al-Enma’a Real Estate CoNational Mobile Telecommuni
Sanad Holding Co KsccUnicap Investment And Financ
Al Salam Group Holding CoAl Aman Investment Company
Mashaer Holding Co KscManazel Holding
Tijara And Real Estate InvesJazeera Airways Co Ksc
Commercial Real Estate CoNational International Co
Taameer Real Estate Invest CGulf Cement Co
Heavy Engineering And Ship BNational Real Estate Co
Al Safat Energy Holding CompKuwait National Cinema CoDanah Alsafat Foodstuff Co
Independent Petroleum GroupKuwait Real Estate Co Ksc
Salhia Real Estate Co KscGulf Cable & Electrical Ind
Kuwait Finance HouseGulf North Africa Holding Co
Hilal Cement CoOsoul Investment Kscc
Gulf Insurance Group KscUmm Al Qaiwain General Inves
Aayan Leasing & InvestmentAlrai Media Group Co KscNational Investments CoCommercial Facilities CoYiaco Medical Co. K.S.C.C
Dulaqan Real Estate CoReal Estate Asset Management
61.20
343.00
1,000.00
17.60
26.60
142.00
90.00
1,099.00
137.00
62.00
158.00
78.90
3,165.00
80.00
69.00
160.00
47.80
720.00
0.00
46.50
37.70
57.90
70.00
28.00
42.00
959.00
93.50
69.80
19.90
56.00
408.00
85.80
20.20
830.00
26.10
490.00
82.40
331.00
434.00
780.00
60.30
96.00
63.00
626.00
70.60
54.00
32.00
138.00
203.00
66.50
350.00
106.00
-9.87
-1.72
0.00
-2.22
-2.21
0.00
-8.16
0.00
-2.14
0.00
0.00
-1.13
-1.71
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.06
1.27
0.00
1.09
-1.31
-0.69
-0.99
-5.72
0.00
-0.42
0.00
0.00
-1.00
0.00
-0.73
-1.38
-5.61
-2.35
-2.97
0.00
-0.60
-1.49
-4.82
-0.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-9.72
-2.53
-0.31
-0.72
-0.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
5,000
492,023
-
1,956,290
98,200
92,674
1,500
-
5,602,781
-
-
87,000
73,389
-
-
-
3,953,689
113,522
-
399
678,345
488,089
535,561
606,063
-
100,490
209,950
-
190,060
6,000
158,162
1,043,395
11,586
48
33,000
-
157,100
349,329
902,580
7,202,225
-
10,000
-
-
10,000
5,120,198
1,144
1,114,563
10,000
-
-
-
OMAN
Company Name % Chg Volume
Voltamp Energy SaogVision Insurance Saoc
United Power/Energy Co- PrefUnited Power Co Saog
United Finance CoUbar Hotels & Resorts
Takaful OmanTaageer FinanceSweets Of OmanSohar Power Co
Sohar International BankSmn Power Holding Saog
Shell Oman Marketing - PrefShell Oman Marketing
Sharqiyah Desalination Co SaSembcorp Salalah Power & Wat
Salalah Port ServicesSalalah Mills Co
Salalah Beach Resort SaogSahara Hospitality
Renaissance Services SaogRaysut Cement Co
Phoenix Power Co SaocPackaging Co Ltd
OoredooOminvest
Oman United Insurance CoOman Telecommunications Co
Oman Refreshment CoOman Qatar Insurance Co
0.18
0.11
1.00
2.50
0.06
0.13
0.12
0.10
0.55
0.10
0.11
0.08
1.05
1.06
0.30
0.11
0.60
0.57
1.38
3.09
0.29
0.34
0.07
2.21
0.48
0.33
0.17
0.58
1.40
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-2.06
3.03
0.00
0.00
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.35
0.00
0.00
147
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
110
10,000
-
-
-
-
2,000
-
505
-
-
31,915
32,190
-
-
28,250
45,000
-
271,543
-
-
Sultan Center Food ProductsKuwait Foundry Co Sak
Kuwait Financial Centre SakAjial Real Estate Entmt
Kuwait Finance & InvestmentNational Industries Co Ksc
Kuwait Real Estate Holding CSecurities House/The
Boubyan Petrochemicals CoAl Ahli Bank Of Kuwait
Ahli United Bank (Almutahed)National Bank Of Kuwait
Commercial Bank Of KuwaitKuwait International Bank
Gulf BankAl-Massaleh Real Estate Co
Al Arabiya Real Estate CoKuwait Remal Real Estate Co
Alkout Industrial Projects CA’ayan Real Estate Co Sak
Investors Holding Group Co.KAl-Mazaya Holding Co
2.83
0.00
-5.50
1.56
-3.42
0.00
-1.11
0.00
-0.39
0.00
-0.56
-0.50
0.20
-1.06
-1.28
4.96
-0.38
-0.72
0.00
0.16
0.00
-0.18
19,200
105,333
1,338,990
5,000
2,287,159
20,000
170,000
603,050
614,833
-
923,546
2,349,423
10,088
10,730,061
4,905,695
50
7,065,414
269,822
-
203,516
2,622,462
1,250,925
47.30
255.00
103.00
130.00
45.20
180.00
26.70
47.00
775.00
333.00
355.00
1,000.00
505.00
281.00
309.00
38.10
26.50
27.60
840.00
63.80
10.00
54.60
Lt Price
LATEST MARKET CLOSING FIGURES
Gold seizes limelight with silver as bond market fl ashes redSingapore Singapore Bloomberg
In a world awash with reces-sion fears, gold and silver are feeling the love – and there’s
plenty more aff ection to come.Both metals are rallying as
closely watched parts of the Treasury yield curve inverted, raising speculation that a US re-cession looms. The worsening US-China trade war, and its im-pact on global growth, are also being keenly felt, with weak Chi-nese and German economic data this week spurring demand.
Gold has jumped this year on a constellation of mutually re-inforcing drivers, with growth slowing, central banks cutting interest rates, and the high-stakes stand-off of the trade war sapping appetite for risk. Still, the Federal Reserve will likely be powerless to keep the world’s top economy from falling into a recession and the 10-year yield could sink to zero by 2021, according to JPMor-gan Chase & Co. All that aids bul-lion, which doesn’t bear yields.
“The overall uncertain macro backdrop is likely to keep inter-est in gold well-supported,” UBS Group AG said in a note as it raised price forecasts for every year out to 2023. There have been down-ward revisions to US and China growth expectations and more rate cuts are seen from the Fed, the bank said.
Spot gold advanced as much as 0.5% to $1,524.38 an ounce, and was at $1,520.10 at 6:26am in London. The metal hit $1,535.11 on Tuesday, the highest since April 2013. Silver rose 0.6% to $17.3127 an ounce, near an
18-month high, as the Bloomb-erg Dollar Spot Index snapped three days of gains.
As gold pushes higher, miners’ stocks are soaring worldwide. In Sydney, Newcrest Mining Ltd, Australia’s top producer, is up 69% this year, while smaller rival Evolution Mining Ltd. has jumped 42%. Elsewhere, heavyweights Newmont Goldcorp Corp and Barrick Gold Corp have gained ground.
On top of the global macro-economic concerns, bullion has also benefi ted in 2019 from a fl are-up in geopolitical tensions. These include anti-government protests in Hong Kong that have raised the spectre of possible in-tervention by the Chinese military and, in the Middle East, fraught relations between Iran and the US Investors are also tracking Brexit developments in Europe.
Yesterday, the yield on 30-year
Treasuries fell below 2% for the fi rst time, after the 10-year yield dipped below the two-year rate a day earlier in a pattern typically seen as a harbinger of US reces-sion. That’s sent investors rush-ing once more to haven assets, both aiding gold and pushing the world’s stockpile of negative-yielding bonds to another record.
“Gold competes with interest-bearing assets for investor capi-tal and so, with negative yields
becoming more prevalent, the opportunity cost of holding the metal is quickly falling away,” Chris Mahoney, assistant portfo-lio manager of the Merian Gold & Silver Fund, said in a note.
Investors are continuing to fl ood into exchange-traded funds backed by the precious metals, with gold holdings near the high-est since March 2013, while in-fl ows into silver ETFs have pushed assets to a record.
The US Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC (file). The Federal Reserve will likely be powerless to keep the world’s top economy from falling into a recession and the 10-year yield could sink to zero by 2021, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Africa’s biggest fund manager sees gold boom in West AfricaBloombergJohannesburg
Africa’s largest money manager sees “sig-nifi cant investment
opportunities” in West Af-rican gold mining as the in-dustry at the southern end of the continent declines.
Investor-friendly poli-cies can help Ghana and other countries in the re-gion drive the next “gold-mining boom,” said Lebo-hang Sekhokoane, a mining research analyst at South Africa’s Public Investment Corp. Low-cost deposits in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Ivory Coast off er the long-term investment po-tential the PIC prefers, rath-er than the fi ve to 10-year lifespan of projects in South Africa, she said.
“When you look at the gold sector in West Africa, that’s where the sun is ris-ing,” Sekhokoane said in an interview on Wednesday in Johannesburg. “We expect to see more opportunities from West Africa.”
The PIC, which oversees about $150bn of assets for more than 1.2mn South Af-rican state workers, doesn’t yet have any unlisted mining investments in the conti-nent outside its home na-tion. The money manager can invest as much as 5%
of its assets in such unlisted African projects across all sectors.
“Opportunities do exist and focus is shifting to oth-er parts of the continent,” Sekhokoane said. “We ob-viously like to fund longer-term projects.”
South Africa’s gold in-dustry, which has produced half the world’s bullion ever mined, has been shrinking amid the geological chal-lenges of exploiting the world’s deepest mines. An-gloGold Ashanti Ltd and Gold Fields Ltd have shifted production to lower-cost operations, including West Africa, with the former in the process of selling its last underground mine in South Africa.
Both companies are ex-panding output in Ghana, which has leapfrogged South Africa to become the continent’s largest bullion producer. Gold Fields said production from the West African country jumped by 25% in the first half, while AngloGold chief execu-tive officer Kelvin Dush-nisky has called Ghana’s Obuasi mine “an engine for growth.”
Gold Fields is consider-ing extending the lives of its Tarkwa and Damang mines in Ghana, where high vol-umes compensate for lower ore grades.
Global stocks choppy as US-China trade war concerns take holdAFPLondon
European stock markets lost ground again yesterday as inves-tors all but gave up hope that a
US-China trade war could be nearing its end, while US equities nervously traded sideways.
London’s FTSE 100 fell 1.1% to close at 7,067.01 points; Frankfurt’s DAX 30 was down 0.7% at 11,412.67, while Paris’ CAC 40 lost 0.3% at 5,236.93. The EURO STOXX 50 was down 0.2% at 3,282.78.
Fears over the stand-off between the world’s two biggest economies added to jitters over the state of the world economy which had infl icted heavy losses on equities on Wednesday, in-cluding the worst one-day fall this year on Wall Street’s Dow.
“Every time investors find the strength to pick themselves up off the floor, the trade war delivers an-other blow and knocks them down again,” said Craig Erlam at Oanda. “This morning that came in the form of reports that China is threatening retaliation against Trump’s tariffs that are due to come into force on 1 September.”
The yield on the 10-year US Treas-ury bond slid on Wednesday below the
yield on the two-year note, an “inver-sion” that has been a reliable harbinger of recession for decades.
“The slew of negative news has seen a huge shake down in global equity markets, and money has poured into government bonds,” noted David Mad-den, analyst at CMC Markets UK.
European stocks gave up an early attempt at a rebound to trade lower across the board, with London the worst performer, weighed down by a strengthening pound.
US stocks saw some nervous swings during the morning session in New York.
They managed to claw back a tiny part of Wednesday’s heavy losses at the opening bell, then slipped into negative territory, before trading a touch higher again by the late New York morning.
“US stocks are nudging higher in the wake of yesterday’s (Wednesday) plunge that came courtesy of height-ened global recession concerns,” said Charles Schwab analysts.
The DJIA index had slumped around 800 points, or 3.1%, the previous day.
The trade war has hammered global demand, with data this week showing China’s industrial output had struck a 17-year low, while investment and retail sales have also slowed in the world’s second biggest economy.
“US-China trade tensions have metastasised into something more sinister by aff ecting global growth to such a large degree that bond markets are pricing-in a high probability of a worldwide recession,” warned Stephen Innes, managing partner at VM Mar-kets.
Weeks of pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong have added to the un-certainty, with Beijing referring to in-creasingly violent demonstrations as “terrorism”, stoking fears of a Chinese crackdown.
Economists have warned for months that trade tensions threat-ened investment and dampened global sentiment, which was already suffering owing to China’s economic slowdown and fears over Brexit’s im-pact on Britain and Europe, where the German economy is showing signs of contraction.
The pound climbed against the dol-lar and euro as data showed British re-tail sales rose unexpectedly by 0.2 % in July.
“The UK’s retail data surprised the investors by posting an upbeat reading and traders pushed the (pound) cur-rency higher,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets.
He warned however that “there is no light at the end of the Brexit tunnel” so far.
Apple IncAmerican Express Co
Boeing Co/TheCaterpillar Inc
Cisco Systems IncChevron Corp
Walt Disney Co/TheDow Inc
Goldman Sachs Group IncHome Depot Inc
Intl Business Machines CorpIntel Corp
Johnson & JohnsonJpmorgan Chase & Co
Coca-Cola Co/TheMcdonald’s Corp
3M CoMerck & Co. Inc.
Microsoft CorpNike Inc -Cl B
Pfizer IncProcter & Gamble Co/The
Travelers Cos Inc/TheUnitedhealth Group Inc
United Technologies CorpVisa Inc-Class A Shares
Verizon Communications IncWalgreens Boots Alliance Inc
Walmart IncExxon Mobil Corp
201.24
122.60
325.70
115.35
46.89
117.23
133.96
43.79
196.41
200.61
131.89
45.83
130.06
105.46
53.95
218.31
158.72
83.72
133.30
80.19
34.14
117.97
145.32
244.71
123.72
176.83
56.28
49.55
110.97
67.52
-0.74
-0.04
1.65
0.12
-7.36
-0.43
0.84
-0.66
0.43
-0.49
0.49
-0.09
-0.15
0.63
1.81
0.85
-0.06
0.38
-0.51
-1.04
-0.29
1.88
1.28
0.62
-0.47
1.91
1.01
-1.72
4.49
-0.19
2,950,166
215,276
303,045
327,168
6,556,087
460,051
543,416
760,000
165,679
382,981
216,643
2,414,449
458,021
1,238,542
756,703
218,057
213,998
812,245
3,725,033
554,319
1,751,330
622,555
85,099
238,739
243,059
553,188
822,052
735,200
1,504,747
1,433,210
DJIA
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
Anglo American PlcAssociated British Foods Plc
Admiral Group PlcAshtead Group Plc
Antofagasta PlcAuto Trader Group Plc
Aviva PlcAstrazeneca PlcBae Systems Plc
Barclays PlcBritish American Tobacco Plc
Barratt Developments PlcBhp Group Plc
Berkeley Group Holdings/TheBritish Land Co Plc
Bunzl PlcBp Plc
Burberry Group PlcBt Group Plc
Coca-Cola Hbc Ag-DiCarnival PlcCentrica Plc
Compass Group PlcCroda International Plc
Crh PlcDcc Plc
Diageo PlcDirect Line Insurance Group
Evraz PlcExperian Plc
Easyjet PlcFerguson Plc
Fresnillo PlcGlencore Plc
Glaxosmithkline PlcGvc Holdings Plc
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PlcHargreaves Lansdown Plc
Halma PlcHsbc Holdings Plc
Hiscox LtdIntl Consolidated Airline-Di
Intercontinental Hotels Grou3I Group Plc
Imperial Brands PlcInforma Plc
Intertek Group PlcItv Plc
Johnson Matthey PlcKingfisher Plc
Land Securities Group PlcLegal & General Group PlcLloyds Banking Group Plc
London Stock Exchange GroupMicro Focus International
Marks & Spencer Group PlcMondi Plc
Melrose Industries PlcWm Morrison Supermarkets
National Grid PlcNmc Health Plc
Next PlcOcado Group Plc
Paddy Power Betfair PlcPrudential Plc
Persimmon PlcPearson Plc
Reckitt Benckiser Group PlcRoyal Bank Of Scotland Group
Royal Dutch Shell Plc-A ShsRoyal Dutch Shell Plc-B Shs
Relx PlcRio Tinto Plc
Rightmove PlcRolls-Royce Holdings PlcRsa Insurance Group Plc
Rentokil Initial PlcSainsbury (J) Plc
Schroders PlcSage Group Plc/The
Segro PlcSmurfit Kappa Group Plc
Standard Life Aberdeen PlcDs Smith Plc
Smiths Group PlcScottish Mortgage Inv Tr Plc
Smith & Nephew PlcSpirax-Sarco Engineering Plc
Sse PlcStandard Chartered Plc
St James’s Place PlcSevern Trent Plc
Tesco PlcTui Ag-Di
Taylor Wimpey PlcUnilever Plc
United Utilities Group PlcVodafone Group Plc
John Wood Group PlcWpp Plc
Whitbread Plc
1,696.20
2,260.00
2,115.00
2,042.00
796.80
517.00
357.60
7,230.00
548.40
137.20
3,049.50
618.40
1,772.60
3,780.00
468.30
2,025.00
489.70
2,067.00
164.38
2,690.00
3,475.00
64.96
2,018.00
4,676.00
2,609.00
6,450.00
3,415.50
295.50
498.90
2,500.00
889.40
5,886.00
671.20
222.15
1,645.60
545.20
1,984.00
1,857.00
1,928.50
591.30
1,579.00
416.30
5,118.00
1,064.00
2,088.00
832.40
5,436.00
103.60
2,770.00
191.85
735.40
222.00
48.58
6,722.00
1,568.60
180.35
1,510.50
160.70
176.90
851.00
1,810.00
5,640.00
1,136.50
0.00
1,430.00
1,836.00
806.00
6,080.00
177.65
2,275.00
2,258.50
1,917.50
4,026.00
513.10
753.60
518.00
446.00
177.10
2,654.00
689.80
728.20
2,372.00
238.10
307.90
1,530.00
506.50
1,880.00
7,690.00
1,104.00
602.40
914.60
1,991.00
213.10
744.80
142.90
4,976.50
789.20
148.24
432.40
937.00
4,086.00
-5.19
0.18
0.00
-1.40
-2.81
-0.69
-3.61
-0.54
-0.11
-1.12
1.36
-0.74
-0.57
-1.43
-0.93
-0.64
-1.67
-1.34
-1.97
-0.33
-1.81
-0.82
-0.10
-0.04
-1.29
-0.12
0.25
-0.24
-5.40
0.00
-1.81
-1.90
-1.90
-3.62
-0.84
-0.29
-0.15
-1.04
-0.54
-1.81
-0.06
-2.07
-1.44
-0.65
-0.05
-0.50
-1.06
-1.61
-1.14
-3.57
-1.42
-3.27
-0.21
-0.09
0.68
-1.45
-3.51
-1.38
-2.75
0.97
0.47
-1.05
-1.47
0.00
-0.28
-1.29
-0.93
-0.72
-10.48
-2.96
-3.17
0.26
-0.87
-0.48
0.21
0.43
-0.20
-4.50
-1.89
-0.26
-3.04
-2.31
-4.68
-4.02
-1.00
-2.78
-0.61
-0.58
-0.54
-0.86
0.04
0.66
-0.56
-3.90
-1.04
0.19
1.94
-0.52
-1.46
-1.88
-1.99
5,866,408
692,330
896,198
1,772,510
1,934,949
4,582,608
12,297,191
1,477,885
5,062,824
44,699,203
2,796,114
3,293,406
5,814,077
423,538
4,492,061
922,943
35,836,343
1,121,523
21,105,633
492,103
493,104
21,696,269
1,905,216
416,158
1,190,693
298,464
3,306,847
5,551,190
4,652,655
1,022,003
1,767,995
632,666
1,528,561
38,414,276
6,012,895
4,805,872
392,162
962,802
837,260
38,610,966
811,179
5,096,271
643,772
1,456,942
1,337,140
1,420,641
385,708
9,792,490
468,936
8,607,602
2,160,729
19,895,053
165,325,825
537,618
928,133
8,165,311
2,255,351
13,980,422
8,837,575
8,121,127
1,003,950
352,343
888,394
-
5,866,279
910,455
2,047,440
781,009
27,115,573
8,732,179
9,009,828
2,848,910
2,490,806
1,646,284
4,217,358
2,276,795
3,753,535
9,733,141
265,084
3,009,995
2,889,976
326,191
8,494,843
4,779,133
734,568
3,567,040
2,425,109
229,519
3,674,092
5,676,540
2,630,811
557,728
19,510,057
1,490,772
6,095,386
2,018,372
3,021,674
84,460,381
2,570,020
3,232,640
364,697
FTSE 100
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
Japan Airlines Co LtdRecruit Holdings Co Ltd
Softbank CorpKyocera Corp
Nissan Motor Co LtdT&D Holdings Inc
Toyota Motor CorpKddi Corp
Nitto Denko CorpHitachi Ltd
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co LtdJfe Holdings IncSumitomo Corp
Canon IncEisai Co Ltd
Nintendo Co LtdShin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd
Mitsubishi CorpSmc Corp
3,285.00
3,522.00
1,495.50
6,356.00
655.10
990.70
6,795.00
2,649.50
4,839.00
3,641.00
3,615.00
1,206.50
1,533.50
2,744.50
5,325.00
39,900.00
10,645.00
2,595.00
39,000.00
-0.27
-2.14
-0.10
-1.47
-1.12
-0.91
-0.85
-1.01
-2.38
-1.91
-0.71
-0.94
-0.84
-2.02
-2.08
-0.42
-0.79
-1.95
-1.07
720,600
4,202,700
8,708,600
960,900
11,013,200
3,632,800
5,658,800
4,953,400
697,400
2,423,800
4,138,800
3,382,700
4,391,000
4,252,900
736,300
1,714,200
1,259,600
7,521,900
289,700
TOKYO
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
Nidec CorpIsuzu Motors Ltd
Unicharm CorpNomura Holdings Inc
Daiichi Sankyo Co LtdSubaru Corp
Sumitomo Realty & DevelopmenNtt Docomo Inc
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co LtdOrix Corp
Asahi Group Holdings LtdKeyence Corp
Mizuho Financial Group IncSumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdin
Japan Tobacco IncSumitomo Electric Industries
Daiwa Securities Group IncSoftbank Group Corp
Panasonic CorpFujitsu Ltd
Central Japan Railway CoNitori Holdings Co Ltd
Ajinomoto Co IncDaikin Industries Ltd
Mitsui Fudosan Co LtdOno Pharmaceutical Co Ltd
Toray Industries IncBridgestone Corp
Sony CorpAstellas Pharma Inc
Hoya CorpNippon Steel Corp
Suzuki Motor CorpNippon Telegraph & Telephone
Jxtg Holdings IncMurata Manufacturing Co Ltd
Kansai Electric Power Co IncDenso Corp
Sompo Holdings IncDaiwa House Industry Co Ltd
Dai-Ichi Life Holdings IncMazda Motor Corp
Komatsu LtdWest Japan Railway Co
Kao CorpMitsui & Co Ltd
Daito Trust Construct Co LtdOtsuka Holdings Co Ltd
Oriental Land Co LtdSekisui House Ltd
Secom Co LtdTokio Marine Holdings Inc
Aeon Co LtdAsahi Kasei Corp
Kirin Holdings Co LtdMarubeni Corp
Mitsubishi Ufj Financial GroMitsubishi Chemical Holdings
Fanuc CorpFast Retailing Co Ltd
Ms&Ad Insurance Group HoldinKubota Corp
Seven & I Holdings Co LtdInpex Corp
Resona Holdings IncFujifilm Holdings Corp
Yamato Holdings Co LtdChubu Electric Power Co Inc
Mitsubishi Estate Co LtdMitsubishi Heavy Industries
Sysmex CorpShiseido Co Ltd
Shionogi & Co LtdTerumo Corp
Tokyo Gas Co LtdTokyo Electron Ltd
East Japan Railway CoItochu Corp
Ana Holdings IncMitsubishi Electric Corp
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Gr
13,745.00
1,078.50
3,138.00
365.00
7,182.00
2,720.00
3,850.00
2,592.00
3,081.00
1,481.50
4,781.00
60,680.00
153.30
3,438.00
2,269.50
1,214.50
429.70
4,952.00
801.00
8,467.00
20,965.00
14,895.00
1,905.00
13,270.00
2,272.00
1,973.50
777.20
3,979.00
5,838.00
1,418.00
8,367.00
1,453.00
3,932.00
4,929.00
423.10
4,618.00
1,268.00
4,287.00
4,199.00
3,067.00
1,369.00
879.70
2,277.00
8,800.00
7,643.00
1,642.50
13,430.00
4,274.00
14,975.00
1,801.00
8,751.00
5,621.00
1,884.00
939.20
2,121.50
656.50
499.00
717.50
18,065.00
62,440.00
3,425.00
1,518.00
3,665.00
903.20
409.90
4,543.00
1,823.50
1,515.00
1,961.50
4,026.00
6,340.00
7,966.00
5,619.00
3,311.00
2,683.50
18,435.00
9,993.00
2,040.50
3,590.00
1,277.50
3,467.00
-1.43
-2.09
0.45
-0.60
0.21
-0.71
-1.38
-1.86
-0.68
-0.74
-0.38
-0.38
-0.52
-1.12
-0.79
-1.26
-0.83
-0.24
-2.57
0.81
-0.12
-0.17
-0.63
-0.71
-1.32
-0.10
-0.31
-1.07
-1.30
-1.43
-3.05
-1.42
-0.43
-0.50
-3.11
-1.32
-1.13
-1.61
-1.13
0.76
-1.58
-1.73
-1.34
-0.08
-1.32
-0.76
-0.81
0.59
0.30
0.06
0.39
-1.82
-1.39
-0.19
0.00
0.00
-1.09
-1.46
-0.63
-1.95
-0.32
-0.59
-1.77
-1.80
-1.63
-3.03
-2.77
-0.26
-0.68
-1.25
-1.11
-0.26
-2.50
-2.22
0.94
-0.14
-0.12
0.27
-0.25
-1.92
-1.28
TOKYO
Company Name Lt Price % Chg
Ck Hutchison Holdings LtdHang Lung Properties Ltd
Ck Infrastructure Holdings LHengan Intl Group Co Ltd
China Shenhua Energy Co-HCspc Pharmaceutical Group Lt
Hang Seng Bank LtdChina Resources Land Ltd
Ck Asset Holdings LtdSino Biopharmaceutical
Henderson Land DevelopmentAia Group Ltd
Ind & Comm Bk Of China-HWant Want China Holdings Ltd
Sun Hung Kai PropertiesNew World Development
Geely Automobile Holdings LtSwire Pacific Ltd - Cl A
Sands China LtdWharf Real Estate Investment
Clp Holdings LtdCountry Garden Holdings Co
Aac Technologies Holdings InShenzhou International GroupPing An Insurance Group Co-H
China Mengniu Dairy CoSunny Optical Tech
Boc Hong Kong Holdings LtdChina Life Insurance Co-H
Citic LtdGalaxy Entertainment Group L
Wh Group Ltd
66.55
17.52
54.50
52.00
15.28
11.96
169.40
30.40
51.50
9.06
37.40
74.80
4.95
5.98
112.70
9.80
10.78
79.65
34.35
46.85
81.50
9.42
36.05
105.30
87.20
29.75
95.40
26.10
17.70
9.20
45.65
6.20
2.23
1.98
1.40
-1.33
2.00
0.17
2.48
1.33
2.69
-0.11
3.74
2.05
0.81
1.87
4.06
7.81
0.37
1.79
1.78
4.69
0.43
1.29
0.42
-1.03
0.35
0.68
1.54
1.36
0.45
0.88
2.24
-2.52
9,695,771
12,390,048
2,351,646
3,389,512
19,598,883
18,539,881
3,373,076
6,307,537
11,401,336
42,878,205
10,969,654
33,861,663
212,930,087
9,183,545
12,451,567
67,241,211
33,597,551
3,509,350
8,831,593
9,929,491
5,511,897
41,145,041
4,945,011
1,395,544
38,933,502
6,075,245
8,834,539
21,598,611
25,874,283
9,119,862
18,394,287
90,791,235
HONG KONG
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
Hong Kong & China GasBank Of Communications Co-HChina Petroleum & Chemical-HHong Kong Exchanges & Clear
Bank Of China Ltd-HHsbc Holdings Plc
Power Assets Holdings LtdMtr Corp
China Overseas Land & InvestTencent Holdings Ltd
China Unicom Hong Kong LtdLink Reit
Sino Land CoChina Resources Power Holdin
Petrochina Co Ltd-HCnooc Ltd
China Construction Bank-HChina Mobile Ltd
16.34
5.29
4.63
238.00
2.99
56.80
53.25
47.30
24.70
330.40
7.82
90.45
11.42
10.40
3.81
11.34
5.71
66.10
0.86
0.76
-0.22
1.19
0.34
-2.07
0.76
4.42
1.65
-2.82
10.92
4.15
3.63
-2.99
-0.26
-1.22
1.24
5.42
23,766,426
19,620,421
84,961,057
9,130,954
240,348,195
49,571,041
3,189,067
10,915,075
15,829,228
30,008,735
159,452,641
13,526,988
9,856,182
8,535,694
83,631,126
53,987,841
483,688,075
43,532,795
HONG KONG
Company Name Lt Price % Chg Volume
Adani Ports And Special EconAsian Paints Ltd
Axis Bank LtdBajaj Finance Ltd
Bharti Airtel LtdBharti Infratel Ltd
Bajaj Auto LtdBajaj Finserv Ltd
Bharat Petroleum Corp LtdCipla Ltd
Coal India LtdDr. Reddy’s Laboratories
Eicher Motors LtdGail India Ltd
Grasim Industries LtdHcl Technologies Ltd
Housing Development FinanceHdfc Bank Limited
Hero Motocorp LtdHindalco Industries Ltd
Hindustan Petroleum CorpHindustan Unilever Ltd
Icici Bank LtdIndiabulls Housing Finance L
Indusind Bank LtdInfosys Ltd
Indian Oil Corp LtdItc Ltd
Jsw Steel LtdKotak Mahindra Bank Ltd
Larsen & Toubro LtdMahindra & Mahindra Ltd
Maruti Suzuki India LtdNtpc Ltd
Oil & Natural Gas Corp LtdPower Grid Corp Of India Ltd
Reliance Industries LtdState Bank Of India
Sun Pharmaceutical IndusTata Steel Ltd
Tata Consultancy Svcs LtdTech Mahindra Ltd
Titan Co LtdTata Motors Ltd
Upl LtdUltratech Cement Ltd
Vedanta LtdWipro Ltd
Yes Bank LtdZee Entertainment Enterprise
358.85
1,569.70
663.20
3,289.95
361.20
248.85
2,713.90
7,415.20
354.45
478.30
200.50
2,511.95
16,574.65
126.75
734.50
1,076.15
2,117.70
2,229.45
2,634.15
180.60
246.60
1,839.05
417.30
551.35
1,400.85
774.80
126.45
248.75
227.75
1,491.80
1,333.70
523.55
5,816.00
117.60
126.85
205.15
1,288.25
289.75
417.15
364.65
2,204.40
659.10
1,084.00
120.90
527.20
4,225.90
146.55
251.05
76.55
341.60
-0.47
-0.23
2.12
2.11
2.72
0.89
1.62
4.60
3.31
0.54
-1.60
-1.74
-0.42
0.60
3.50
0.34
0.84
0.41
2.62
2.47
2.45
0.78
1.72
-3.80
1.99
1.31
0.44
0.99
3.45
-1.30
1.56
2.18
0.01
0.38
-0.70
1.56
1.06
2.26
-5.03
4.57
0.23
3.12
1.89
-0.86
4.79
1.07
4.87
-2.88
4.01
4.37
SENSEX
Company Name Lt Price % Chg
WORLD INDICESIndices Lt Price Change
GCC INDICESIndices Lt Price Change
Dow Jones Indus. AvgS&P 500 Index
Nasdaq Composite IndexS&P/Tsx Composite Index
Mexico Bolsa IndexBrazil Bovespa Stock Idx
Ftse 100 IndexCac 40 Index
Dax IndexIbex 35 Tr
Nikkei 225Japan Topix
Hang Seng IndexAll Ordinaries Indx
Nzx All IndexBse Sensex 30 Index
Nse S&P Cnx Nifty IndexStraits Times Index
Karachi All Share IndexJakarta Composite Index
25,600.54
2,844.04
7,790.63
16,026.09
38,421.46
99,743.80
7,067.01
5,236.93
11,412.67
8,519.00
20,405.65
1,483.85
25,495.46
6,490.77
1,816.93
37,311.53
11,029.40
3,126.09
21,767.69
6,257.59
+121.12
+3.44
+16.69
-19.85
-228.63
-514.20
-80.87
-14.37
-79.99
-3.70
-249.48
-15.65
+193.18
-186.74
-24.65
+353.37
+103.55
-21.51
-104.09
-9.75
Doha Securities Market
Kuwait Stocks Exchange
Oman Stock Market
9,621.70
4,876.21
3,861.51
-53.84
-27.12
+22.90
“Information contained herein is believed to be reliable and had been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This publication is for providing information only and is not intended as an off er or solicitation for a purchase or sale of any of the financial instruments mentioned. Gulf Times and Doha Bank or any of their employees shall not be held accountable and will not accept any losses or liabilities for actions based on this data.”
633,900
1,892,200
937,200
16,168,300
1,719,600
2,822,500
1,053,200
5,045,300
1,033,700
4,094,200
1,031,800
425,600
84,355,600
735,200
4,330,100
1,600,900
4,373,300
17,842,200
9,844,400
947,900
256,500
235,500
854,200
602,900
3,040,300
875,400
8,202,300
2,136,200
5,632,100
5,184,600
855,300
3,852,900
1,591,700
2,232,400
27,381,900
3,577,600
1,383,900
1,526,000
966,300
1,572,100
6,320,100
4,989,500
5,203,800
246,800
1,314,400
4,938,900
178,400
1,608,500
503,800
1,239,800
527,600
1,578,400
2,796,000
4,186,000
3,039,500
5,736,400
60,750,000
6,396,800
817,600
816,600
1,333,800
2,740,900
2,104,900
4,905,500
10,221,700
1,906,800
887,500
1,032,300
2,745,700
1,035,400
653,900
1,843,700
829,700
2,373,300
1,023,600
1,424,900
465,200
3,790,900
575,500
4,362,900
5,954,900
4,506,969
1,113,095
7,148,518
2,770,237
7,669,905
1,684,846
522,580
546,578
3,012,716
2,376,714
16,687,905
1,609,457
216,106
8,914,174
2,951,315
1,401,960
2,683,820
3,563,513
998,006
5,965,374
2,653,148
1,910,376
13,307,755
31,460,012
2,823,062
5,940,968
8,302,056
13,809,031
6,940,915
2,354,908
2,798,429
4,641,413
1,030,939
8,641,527
14,449,993
4,513,588
14,487,137
18,523,649
16,173,302
18,738,769
1,945,002
2,627,043
1,834,669
30,136,178
5,344,625
578,309
15,672,869
4,353,363
173,114,134
8,277,699
Volume
Volume
A broker looks at financial information on computer screens on the IG Index trading floor in London (file). The FTSE 100 fell 1.1% to close at 7,067.01 points yesterday.
BUSINESS5Gulf Times
Friday, August 16, 2019
BUSINESS7Gulf Times
Friday, August 16, 2019
QSE witnesses weakened buying interests of local retail investors, domestic fundsBy Santhosh V PerumalBusiness Reporter
The Qatar Stock Exchange yesterday witnessed weakened buying interests of local retail investors and domestic funds; leading it to close 54 points lower.Telecom, insurance and real estate counters saw higher than average selling pressure, which led to a 0.56% decline in the 20-stock Qatar Index to 9,621.7 points.Some three-fourth of the trading equities was in the red on the market, whose key benchmark is 6.58% lower year-to-date.
Market capitalisation eroded about QR3bn or 0.51% to QR529.41bn mainly dragged by small and midcap segments.Islamic equities were seen declining faster than the other indices on the market, where the non-Qatari funds continued to be net sellers but with lesser intensity.Trade turnover and volumes were on the increase on the bourse, where banking, industrials and realty sectors together accounted for more than 77% of the total volume.The Total Return Index fell 0.56% to 17,704.73 points, All Share Index by 0.61% to 2,838.92 points and Al Rayan Islamic Index (Price) by 0.74%
to 2,211.35 points. The telecom index plummeted 3.04%, insurance (2.52%), real estate (1.26%), transport (0.84%), industrials (0.42%) and banks and financial services (0.32%); while consumer goods gained 0.39%.Major losers included Vodafone Qatar, Ooredoo, Qatar Insurance, Qatari Investors Group, Doha Bank, QIIB, Dlala, Qatar Oman Investment, Salam International Investment, Ezdan, United Development Company and Mazaya Qatar; even as Woqod, Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding, Barwa and Nakilat were among the gainers.Domestic institutions’ net buying weakened substantially to QR24.59mn
compared to QR37.79mn the previous day.Local retail investors’ net buying also declined considerably to QR23.62mn against QR31.07mn on Wednesday.Non-Qatari individuals’ net buying shrank noticeably to QR0.13mn compared to QR2.05mn on August 14.The Gulf institutions’ net buying decreased influentially to QR0.69mn against QR1.65mn the previous day.The Gulf individuals turned net sellers to the tune of QR0.32mn compared with net buyers of QR0.71mn on Wednesday.However, non-Qatari institutions’ net profit booking eased significantly to QR48.75mn against QR73.23mn
on August 14. Total trade volume increased 39%, value by 3% to QR215.53mn and transaction by 14% to 8,729.The transport sector’s trade volume more than doubled to 4.36mn equities and value almost tripled to QR13.14mn on more than doubled deals to 475.The telecom sector’s trade volume grew considerably to 3.7mn stocks, value by 5% to QR9.95mn and transactions by 7% to 738.There was 54% surge in the consumer goods’ trade volume to 2.58mn shares and 70% in value to QR21.71mn but on 2% fall in deals to 335.The banks and financial services’ trade volume soared 42% to 23.19mn
equities, while value declined 15% to QR103.8mn despite 2% lower transactions at 2,574.The industrials sector saw 27% expansion in trade volume to 12.57mn stocks, 19% in value to QR46.46mn and 19% in deals to 3,286.The real estate sector’s trade volume shot up 28% to 11.41mn shares whereas value shrank 7% to QR12.68mn and transactions by 1% to 645.The insurance sector reported 5% jump in trade volume to 3.08mn equities, 4% in value to QR7.78mn and 37% in deals to 676.In the debt market, there was no trading of treasury bills and sovereign bonds.
Walmart’s earnings beat allays worry over tariff impact for nowCORPORATE RESULTS
US retailer Walmart Inc reported an estimate-beating jump in second-quarter US comparable sales yesterday as shoppers spent more at its stores and websites, sending its shares up 5% in premarket trading.Walmart raised its earnings expectations for the year after a 20-quarter, or five-year, streak of US growth, unmatched by any other retailer.Consumers are responding to the changes the company is making to its business and the company is gaining market share, chief executive Doug McMillon said in a statement.Walmart’s performance temporarily sidesteps concerns around consumer demand in the wake of tariff s on imports from China. The retailer gets 56% of its revenue from food and grocery sales, which allows it to manage the pressure from tariff s better than many rivals, analysts said.In an interview yesterday, chief financial off icer Brett Biggs said Walmart has raised prices on some items due to these tariff s, but it is not passing all the cost pressure it faces to consumers. It is managing that by negotiating with suppliers and sourcing from alternate supply bases, he said. “We still feel good about the consumer overall,” Biggs said.Walmart has also come under growing pressure and criticism over its policy to continue selling firearms after two mass shootings, one at its store, killed 31 people in Texas and Ohio. The retailer said its policy to sell guns had not changed and did not off er further updates on the issue.Sales at US stores open at least a year rose 2.8%, excluding fuel, in the quarter ended July 31. Analysts estimated growth of 2.07%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.Adjusted earnings per share increased to $1.27 per share, beating expectations of $1.22 per share.The retailer raised its forecast for adjusted earnings-per-share to a “slight decrease to slight increase,” from a “decline by a low single-digit percentage range.” That forecast includes the eff ect from the acquisition of Indian e-commerce firm Flipkart.Online sales surged 37%, in line with the previous quarter’s increase and higher than the company’s expectation of 35%. That contributed 140 basis points to US comparable sales, from 100 basis points during the same quarter last year.Total revenue was up 1.8% to $130.4bn, beating analysts’ estimates for $130.1bn.
J.C. Penney
J.C. Penney Co Inc reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss yesterday, as the department store operator’s eff orts to cut costs and shutter unprofitable businesses paid off , sending shares of its penny stock higher by as much as 14%.The 117-year-old retailer, one of the worst hit by the surge in online shopping in the past decade, reaff irmed it expected to have positive free cash flow this year and would have funds of around $1.5bn available at the end of 2019. Last month,
Reuters exclusively reported that the company had hired advisers to explore debt restructuring options.The Plano, Texas-based retailer also gave a forecast for 2019, the first full-year outlook it has given since withdrawing its 2018 expectations in November to give new Chief Executive Jill Soltau time to settle in.Penney’s sales continue to fall, down 9% in the quarter, and it forecast that comparable sales would drop in 2019 between 7% and 8%, worse than current analysts’ expectations, according to Refinitiv data.But the company’s net loss more than halved, to $48mn, compared with the same period a year ago, and Soltau said the company was benefiting from a reduction in excess inventory and a reining in of permanent price markdowns.Excluding items, Penney posted a loss of 18 cents per share, lower than estimates of 31 cents.Penney ended the quarter with liquidity of about $1.70bn.
Vestas
Wind turbine maker Vestas is gearing up for its busiest half-year on record, it said after reporting lower than expected profit attributed to rising costs stemming from the US-China trade war and orders received when prices had plunged in 2017 The Danish company recently hired Henrik Andersen as chief executive, taking the helm at a crucial juncture for a company battling to remain competitive in a maturing market that is being weaned off the generous state subsidies on which the industry was built.Vestas earnings are under pressure this year from a drop in prices for wind turbines ordered in 2017 and from higher prices for steel, imported components and transportation in the wake of the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China.The company’s wind turbine order backlog at the end of the second quarter was 20.8GW, equating to €15.9bn ($17.7bn), up 56% from a year ago.Second-quarter operating profit before special items fell roughly 50% to €128mn, below a €143mn forecast.Its EBIT margin fell to 6% from 11.5% a year ago.Vestas now expects revenue of €11bn to €12.25bn this year, compared with a previous forecast of €10.75bn to €12.25bn.Its EBIT margin before special items is now forecast at 8-9%, down from a previous 8-10%.
Fingerprint Cards
Swedish biometrics company Fingerprint Cards swung to a small profit in the second quarter but said sales fell due to lower average selling prices.The company, which competes with China’s Goodix, Synaptics in the United States and Taiwan’s Egis Technology, yesterday reported an operating profit of 2.3mn crowns ($239,210) versus a loss of 468mn in the same period a
year ago. It said that while gross margins widened from a year earlier, they shrank from the first quarter due to a lower share of software revenues and a less favourable customer mix.Sales fell 2% year-on-year to 382mn crowns, or by 12% in constant currencies, despite higher delivery volumes.The company launched its first in-display fingerprint sensor for smartphones this year.It said yesterday achieving a position in that market was a priority and it aimed to capture a significant share.
Whitehaven Coal
Whitehaven Coal Ltd yesterday reported a record full-year 2019 underlying profit and a bumper dividend that beat expectations, although analysts said an oversupply of thermal coal could cause headwinds to future profits.Australia’s biggest independent coal miner said net profit after tax, before significant items, was A$564.9mn ($383mn) compared with A$524.5mn a year ago.The company declared an second-half ordinary dividend of 13 Australian cents per share and a special dividend of 17 Australian cents per share, up from 20 Australian cents for the first half of the year.
For the full year, the company will pay a dividend of 50 Australian cents per share, up from 27 Australian cents for the previous year.
Kaz Minerals
Miner Kaz Minerals said yesterday its short-term outlook for the copper market was more cautious in the face of a prolonged Sino-US trade war and a slowdown in the world’s top metals consumer China, after posting a lower first-half profit.The company, which focuses on low-cost and open-pit mining in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, said core profit slumped 10.1% to $620mn for the six months ended June 30 due to weak commodity prices.
Rabobank
Rabobank reported a 29% fall in first-half net profit yesterday, which the Dutch co-operative lender blamed on rising impairment charges, restructuring costs and low interest rates.Rabobank, the largest Dutch mortgage bank and a leading lender in the North American agriculture sector, said net profit fell to €1.2bn ($1.3bn) in the six-month period from €1.7bn a year earlier.Impairment charges on financial assets increased by €477mn from the first half of 2018, which equates to 21 basis points of the average loan portfolio, versus a long-term average of 32 basis points, said the bank, whose main domestic rivals are ABN Amro and ING.
Lenovo Group
China’s Lenovo Group, the world’s largest PC maker, warned it will have to raise product prices if US tariff s increase, sending its shares tumbling 6.5% to two-month lows.Lenovo’s warning amid mounting business uncertainty due to the US-China trade war cast doubt on its sales outlook and took the shine off forecast-beating quarterly results where robust PC sales helped the company more than double its profit.Revenue from Lenovo’s personal computer and smart devices group grew 12%, while its mobile business group recorded a 9% fall in sales.Its PC and smart devices business generates more than three quarters of the group’s total revenue, which rose 5%. Net profit rose to $162mn in the quarter ended June, compared with an average estimate of $154mn by nine analysts, according to Refinitiv data.Revenue rose to $12.51bn, in line with expectations.
Aegon
Dutch insurer Aegon’s capital position weakened in the first half of the year because of low interest rates and other unfavourable market developments, it said yesterday.Aegon’s solvency rate under Europe’s new Solvency II accounting regime slipped to 197% at the end of June, from 211% at the end of 2018.
Aegon reported a 5% drop in underlying pretax profit for the period, to 1.01bn euros ($1.13bn), which was slightly better than expected.Its 26% increase in net income to €618mn, however, widely missed expectations as insurance provisions in the Netherlands rose because of adverse credit spread movements.Aegon this week said that Wynaendts would leave the company next year and would be succeeded by the CEO of Dutch rival NN Group, Lard Friese.
A.P. Moller-Maersk
A.P. Moller-Maersk warned a trade war between the United States and China could curb container traffic this year after the world’s largest container shipping company beat second-quarter profit expectations.Maersk said the escalating trade dispute between Washington and Beijing could limit growth in global container traff ic to the lower end of its 1% to 3% guidance range this year, after growth of around 2% between April and June.Newly imposed tariff s between the United States and China combined with additional US tariff s due to be implemented later this year could remove up to 1.5% of global container demand in 2020, Maersk said.However, chief executive Soren said Maersk had seen “solid progress” in the second quarter, including realising synergies of $1bn from restructuring earlier than expected.Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) grew 17% to $1.36bn, topping the $1.24bn forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.Maersk benefited from higher container freight rates, larger volumes and lower costs and said it still expects EBITDA for the full year to total $5bn.Analysts on average expect EBITDA of $5.4bn for 2019.
Alibaba
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba said yesterday that first quarter revenue beat analyst estimates, defying a slowing economy and a trade war with the United States.Revenue for the April-June period rose 42% year-on-year to 114.9bn yuan ($16.7bn), a company statement said, outpacing an average analyst estimate of 111.6bn yuan compiled by Bloomberg News.Joe Tsai, Alibaba’s Executive Vice-Chairman, attributed the results to China’s demographic trends and continued urbanisation, pointing to the growing urban middle class willing to shell out for brands on Alibaba’s e-commerce platforms.Net profit for the quarter was 21.2bn ($3.1bn), more than double from the same period a year earlier.Revenue in the Hangzhou-based company’s core e-commerce segment, which accounts for the vast majority of its business, jumped 44%, while the smaller but fast-growing cloud computing unit surged 66%.
BUSINESSFriday, August 16, 2019
GULF TIMES
Trump’s re-election is now at the mercy of a slowing economyBloombergWashington
The growing odds of a recession before
the 2020 election threaten to crush Presi-
dent Donald Trump’s hopes of a second
term.
Though still uncertain, such a scenario
would be a political gift to Democrats, who
have avoided talking about the nearly full
employment, record stocks and low infla-
tion so far in the Trump presidency.
Instead, the candidates have highlighted
rising income inequality and untenable
costs of healthcare and college to argue
that the working class isn’t feeling the
boom.
But this week, fears of a broader downturn
arose. The S&P 500 sank almost 3% on
Wednesday and the Dow Jones Industrial
Average plunged 800 points in its worst
rout of the year, sparked when the 10-year
Treasury rate slid below the two-year for
the first time since 2007, a harbinger of a
possible downturn.
With a global factory slowdown and
Trump’s trade war already weighing on
growth, the chances that the US will tip
into a recession within the next year have
risen to 35%, according to an August sur-
vey of economists by Bloomberg News.
“Short of Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh
disclosing membership in the Communist
Party, it is hard to think of any develop-
ment that could undercut Trump more
than a recession,” said Jack Pitney, a
professor of government at Claremont
McKenna College.
“He promised the religious right that he
would give them judges and he promised
the rest of his base that he would give
them prosperity. Take away prosperity,
and he won’t have a prayer,” he said.
At least one Democrat took notice of the
signs.
Senator Elizabeth Warren, who posted a
Medium blog in July about the economic
slowdown, tweeted Wednesday that “the
warning signs for another recession are
flashing. We need to pay attention and
act now, while we still have time to avert a
downturn.”
Economic trends tend to predict elec-
tion outcomes, and recessions can be
kryptonite for the party in power. In the
last century, the only elected presidents
who lost re-election did so after oversee-
ing a recession —George H W Bush in 1992,
Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Herbert Hoover
in 1932.
For Trump, the economy may be even
more important than for his predecessors.
His low-40s approval rating is already per-
ilous for an incumbent, and the economy
is the main factor keeping him afloat.
He scores poorly on most other policy
issues and on questions of leadership and
character.
“If the economy is what’s holding him at a
43% approval rating, what happens if there
is a recession or a stock market retrench
going into 2020 or in 2020? If that were
to occur, at that point what’s holding him
up?” said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strate-
gist and presidential campaign veteran.
“There is a danger that the one thing that’s
holding him up starts to dissipate. And
then he’s in deep trouble.”
In February 1991, Bush’s approval rating
in the Gallup poll reached an astounding
89% after the Gulf War. By June 1992, as
unemployment was peaking, his approval
rating plunged to 38%. Shortly before
Election Day, in mid-October 1992, it was
34%. Then he was swept out of power by
Democrat Bill Clinton.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
fell below the 2-year note on Wednesday
after the gap gradually shrank over the
past two years. An inversion — in which
short-term interest rates are higher than
long-term rates — is a sign that economic
growth is expected to slow.
Before the markets closed, Trump tried to
deflect any blame for the economic news
by turning it on the Federal Reserve’s
interest-rate increases, venting about
the “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!”
in a tweet Wednesday, blaming it on the
central bank’s interest rate increases.
A Federal Reserve Bank of New York
index based on the yield curve shows the
probability of an American recession over
the next 12 months is close to its highest
level since the financial crisis more than a
decade ago.
Still, economists caution that the warning
signs don’t mean that a crash is about to
hit.
“There’s not a ton of flashing warning
signals from a pure economic sense that
would suggest a recession is imminent,
yet we have all of these other signals —
some coming from the markets obviously
— that suggest that caution is certainly
warranted right now,” said Sam Bullard,
senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co.
Trade policy uncertainty, economic
weakness spanning from China to Europe
and the tightening of financial conditions
could lead to trouble on the horizon, he
said.
US factory activity deteriorated in July to
an almost three-year low, according to the
latest figures from the Institute for Supply
Management. In a sign that manufactur-
ing weakness is threatening to spread, the
purchasing managers group said its gauge
of service providers also dropped to the
lowest level since 2016.
Economists worry this weakness will
take a toll on what’s been the American
economy’s bright spot — the job market.
“The labour market is what hits home
the most” for everyday Americans, said
Stephen Stanley, chief economist at
Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. “As long
as you have a job and you’re confident in
your job, you’re probably feeling reason-
ably good about things.”
Despite the uptick in recession odds,
economists still see fairly healthy growth
as the US is buoyed by a strong labour
market. Weekly jobless claims are argu-
ably a more timely gauge of any change
in the state of the job market, and it
shows no sign of deterioration. So far,
applications continue to hover just above
a 49-year low.
Republican strategist Brad Todd signalled
that if the economy worsens, Trump allies
will highlight what they call a Democratic
drift towards “socialism.”
“Swing voters believe lower taxes are bet-
ter for them and higher taxes are worse
for them,” he said. “As Democrats move
further toward socialism, that will not help
them take advantage of any deteriora-
tion in the economy, because anybody in
America who’s not a raging liberal believes
socialism makes the economy worse.”
US consumer spending strong; manufacturing strugglingReutersWashington
US retail sales surged in July as consumers
bought a range of goods even as they cut
back on motor vehicle purchases, which
could help to assuage financial market
fears that the economy was heading into
recession.
The upbeat report from the Commerce
Department yesterday, however, will likely
not change expectations that the Federal
Reserve will cut interest rates again next
month as news from the manufactur-
ing sector remains dour, underscoring
the darkening outlook for the economy
against the backdrop of trade tensions
and slowing growth overseas.
A key part of the US Treasury yield curve
inverted on Wednesday for the first time
since June 2007, triggering a stock market
sell-off .
An inverted Treasury yield curve is
historically a reliable predictor of looming
recessions.
Financial markets have fully priced in a
25-basis-point rate cut at the US central
bank’s September 17-18 policy meeting.
The Fed lowered its short-term interest
rate by a quarter of a percentage point last
month, citing the acrimonious US-China
trade war and slowing global economies.
But the data could push markets to dial
back expectations of a 50-basis-point rate
cut next month.
“So yes, consumers are lifting economic
growth and easing pressure on the Federal
Reserve to cut more aggressively, but the
trade war itself, and the rhetoric that ac-
companies it will push for more rate cuts,”
said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at
BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
Retail sales increased 0.7% last month
after gaining 0.3% in June, the govern-
ment said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast
retail sales would rise 0.3% in July.
Compared to July last year, retail sales
increased 3.4%. Excluding automobiles,
gasoline, building materials and food
services, retail sales jumped 1.0% last
month after advancing by an unrevised
0.7% in June. These so-called core retail
sales correspond most closely with the
consumer spending component of gross
domestic product.
US stock index futures extended gains
after the release of the data.
US Treasury yields rose while the dollar
was slightly weaker against a basket of
currencies.
July’s gain in core retail sales suggested
strong consumer spending early in the
third quarter, though the pace will likely
slow from the April-June quarter’s robust
4.3% annualised rate.
Consumer spending, which accounts for
more than two-thirds of the economy, is
being underpinned by the lowest unem-
ployment rate in nearly half a century.
While a separate report from the Labour
Department yesterday showed an
increase in the number of Americans filing
applications for unemployment benefits
last week, the trend in claims continued to
point to a strong labour market.
Solid consumer spending is blunting some
of the hit on the economy from the down-
turn in manufacturing, which is under-
scored by weak business investment.
There are, however, red flags for the la-
bour market coming from manufacturing.
The sector’s struggles were highlighted
by a third report from the Fed yesterday
showing factory production dropped 0.4%
in July.
Output at factories has declined more
than 1.5% since December 2018.
Manufacturing, which makes up about
12% of the economy, is also being weighed
down by an inventory overhang, espe-
cially in the automotive sector.
Manufacturing productivity tumbled at
its fastest pace in nearly two years in the
second quarter, with factories cutting
hours for workers, another report from the
Labour Department showed.
Manufacturing’s troubles appear to have
persisted into the third quarter.
Though a report from the Philadelphia
Fed yesterday showed factory activity in
the mid-Atlantic region slowed less than
expected in August amid an increase in
new orders, manufacturers reported hir-
ing fewer workers.
A measure of factory employment
dropped to its lowest level since Novem-
ber 2016.
The weakness in factory employment in
the region that covers eastern Pennsylva-
nia, southern New Jersey and Delaware
was mirrored by another survey from the
New York Fed.
Activity in New York state was little
changed this month, with employment
measures deteriorating further.
“The health of factories is still an impor-
tant driver of growth and the soft patch
for production remains a factor that is
keeping economic growth in the slow
lane,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist
at MUFG in New York.
The economy grew at a 2.1% rate in the
second quarter, decelerating from the first
quarter’s 3.1% pace.
Growth estimates for the third quarter are
below a 2.0% rate.
In July, auto sales fell 0.6% after rising
0.3% in June.
Receipts at service stations rebounded
1.8%, reflecting higher gasoline prices.
Sales at building material stores gained
0.2%. Receipts at clothing stores increased
0.8%. Online and mail-order retail sales
jumped 2.8%, the most in six months, after
rising 1.9% in June.
They were likely boosted by Amazon.com
Inc’s Prime Day.
Receipts at furniture stores rose 0.3%.
Sales at restaurants and bars acceler-
ated 1.1%. But spending at hobby, musical
instrument and book stores dropped 1.1%
last month.
Qatar Islamic fi nance sector to get central regulation;profi tability remains highBy Arno MaierbruggerGulf Times CorrespondentBangkok
The Islamic fi nance sector in Qatar is moving towards a higher level: Eff orts are
underway to standardise and cen-tralise the regulations for entire Islamic banking and fi nance in-dustry in order to align the sector with the best global practices. This is the core of the recent initiative of the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) to adopt central supervision for the sector, following the examples of countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia and others in the Gulf Co-operation Council in order to harmonise Shariah-compliant banking products and fi nancial services.
The QCB — according to its Fi-nancial Stability Review for 2018 — said that measures were in place to establish a centralised Shariah su-pervisory body and create Shariah standards to govern Islamic bank-ing products and transactions. This would end the practice of Qatari Islamic banks of self-governing by individual Shariah boards and also help overcome controversies over some non-standard fi nancial product structures.
Further details are still to be an-nounced, especially the date of the launch of such a centralised supervisory body, and how it will operate. This is of importance par-ticularly for international fi nancial institutions seeking to do Shariah-compliant business with Qatari banks and fi nancial institutions.
The move by the QCB comes at a time when newest figures on the Islamic banking and finance industry have been released by the Malaysia-based Islamic Fi-nancial Services Board (IFSB), an international organisation pro-moting the Islamic banking and financial services industry. As part of the first dissemination of country-level data on detailed financials of the Islamic bank-ing systems of 24 countries for
2017 and 2018, the IFSB has also looked into the financial data of the Islamic banking and finance sector in Qatar.
“This should help to enhance greater comparability of the sec-tor with data of other countries, in line with our objective to improve stability and soundness of the fi -nancial systems of our member countries,” said IFSB’s secretary-general Bello Lawal Danbatta.
The structural data for the sec-tor shows that Qatar’s currently four Islamic banks — Qatar Is-lamic Bank, Al Rayan Bank, Barwa Bank and Qatar International Is-lamic Bank — at the end of last year employed 2,256 people across a total of 75 branches nationwide. Total assets of the four banks as of the fourth quarter of 2018 were
$96.14bn, slightly down from the assets held in the fourth quarter of 2017 of $96.73bn, while total Shariah-compliant fi nancing, ex-cluding interbank fi nancing, stood at $64.89bn and combined sukuk holdings at $16.67bn as of end of last year.
The sector was profi table with earnings before taxes and zakat of $1.8bn at revenue of $9.51bn in the fourth quarter of 2018, translating into return-on-equity of a sound 18.9% in the period.
As for core fi nancial indicators, the average capital adequacy ratio of Qatar’s Islamic banks stood at 18.2%, well above the minimum ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets of 10.5% under the Basel III framework, ensuring that the banks have enough cushion to ab-
sorb a reasonable amount of losses before they would become insol-vent.
In terms of asset quality, the share of non-performing fi nance of total fi nancing stood at 1.3% — or $843.6mn — at the end of 2018, up from 0.8% a year ago, but clearly below the 3.3% average of European banks last year and the world average of 3.74% and backed by provisions amounting to 59.6% of the outstanding non-performing fi nancing. The banks also had a quite low cost-to-income ratio of 13.4% in the last quarter of last year. As a compari-son, ailing German banking giant Deutsche Bank, where Qatar holds a 6.1%-stake, at the end of 2018 showed a cost-to-income ratio of a whopping 92.7%.
The sectorial distribution of Shariah-compliant fi nancing by the four Qatari Islamic banks by value was clearly dominated by real estate activities at $20.77bn as of end-2018, followed by con-struction at $4.24bn and fi nan-cial and insurance activities at $2.04bn. Other dominant sectors with Shariah-compliant fi nance were mining, electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning sup-ply, professional, scientifi c and technical activities, arts, enter-tainment and recreation, as well as accommodation and food serv-ice activities.
The sectors with the lowest level of Islamic fi nance were water and waste management, as well as information and confi rmation, IFSB data showed.
Measures are in place to establish a centralised Shariah supervisory body and create Shariah standards to govern Islamic banking products and transactions, according to the QCB’s Financial Stability Review for 2018
Huawei tells Texas judge US law deniesit due process
Snap unveils a new version of video-recording spectacles
BloombergNew York
Huawei Technologies Co told a federal judge in Texas
that Congress improperly decided, without any judicial
review, that the company was a pawn of the Chinese
government, depriving it of due process that other
Chinese companies get.
The Chinese telecom giant sued in May to invalidate
a law Congress passed last year barring government
purchases of its products. Wednesday’s filing expands
on earlier arguments made by the company and spe-
cifically calls out Congress’s use of section 889 of the
National Defence Authorisation Act for 2019.
“By marking Huawei and its employees as untrust-
worthy and disloyal to the US, section 889 stigmatises
them, disrupts existing contracts, and chills purchases
and use of uncovered Huawei equipment and services
as well,” the company said. US politicians wrongfully
singled out Huawei by finding it’s controlled by China’s
Communist Party “and thus is supposedly their tool for
carrying out cyberattacks and cyberespionage,” Huawei
said. It called the law “so highly selective as to cast unique,
punitive aspersions on Huawei.”
The litigation in Texas involves Huawei’s ability to sell
equipment into the US market and is separate from the
US government’s blacklisting of Huawei by not allowing
it to buy components from American suppliers.
President Donald Trump in July announced that US
companies will be allowed to sell their equipment to
Huawei when there are no national security concerns,
thereby easing the blacklist restrictions the Commerce
Department imposed in May.
Section 889 is a prohibition on certain telecommunica-
tions and video surveillance services or equipment.
The US has been engaged in a global campaign to
block Huawei from so-called 5G communications
networks, calling the company a security threat. The
Trump administration has alleged the Chinese govern-
ment could use Huawei’s products to spy on countries
that use them in their networks.
BloombergSan Francisco
Snap Inc unveiled the third — and most expensive —
iteration of the company’s video-recording sunglasses
yesterday. Spectacles 3, the latest wearable device
from the company behind the Snapchat social-mes-
saging app, let users record with two cameras instead
of one, and have a steel wire frame rather than the
chunkier plastic of previous models. At $380 a pair,
the new glasses are more than twice as expensive as
Snap’s second version. Spectacles 3 are available for
preorder, and will be shipped this fall.
Snap has not had much success with Spectacles thus
far. The company sold more than 200,000 pairs of
the original version, which debuted in 2016. But Snap
overestimated demand and had to write down almost
$40mn in inventory in late 2017.