Don’t Call It a Renaissance Until They’ve Shown You a Masterpiece

Peter A. Bradford, Vermont Law SchoolFuture Cities Panel

Madison, November 6, 2009

Nuclear Energy Worldwide Today

•16% global electricity demand•31 countries operating 439 reactors (371 GW)• With a significant uranium enrichment•5 countries separating plutonium commercially•0 countries with geologic repositories for nuclear waste

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Mycle Schneider Consulting

Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1956 to 2007

371.7 GWe439 reactors327.6 GWe

423 reactors

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Number ofReactors

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The Nuclear Fuel Cycle (MIT Report)

Do Everything or Prioritize Wisely? The Pacala/Socolow Wedges (Scientific American, 9/06)

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A Wedge

• Prevent 1 billion tons carbon per year by 2054;

• Scaling up only of technologies already deployed on an industrial scale;

• Seven needed to stabilize CO2 at 500ppm;– More may be needed to get below 500ppm

Wedges 1-51)Doubling fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg2)Decreasing the number of car miles traveled by half3)Using best efficiency practices in all residential and

commercial buildings4)Produce twice today’s coal power output at 60% instead of 40% efficiency (compared with 32% today)5)Replacing 1400 coal electric plants with natural gas-powered

facilities

Wedges 6-106) Capturing and storing emissions from 800 coal electric plants;7) Producing hydrogen from coal at six times today's rate and

storing the captured CO2;8) Capturing carbon from 180 coal-to-synfuels plants and storing

the CO2;9)Adding double (i.e. tripling) the current global nuclear

capacity to replace coal-based electricity;10)Increasing wind electricity capacity by 50 times relative to

today, for a total of 2 million large windmills;

Wedges 11-1511) Installing 700 times the current capacity of solar electricity 12)Using 40,000 square kilometers of solar panels (or 4 million

windmills) to produce hydrogen for fuel cell cars13)Increasing ethanol production 50 times by creating biomass

plantations with area equal to 1/6th of world cropland;14)Eliminating tropical deforestation and creating new

plantations on non-forested land to quintuple current plantation area:

15)Adopting conservation tillage in all agricultural soils worldwide

The Nuclear Wedge

• Doubling of nuclear power really requires tripling the existing capacity (372GW/438plants) because today’s plants must be replaced.– Probably 700-900 new plants needed worldwide to get

1100GW

Where Will Nuclear Energy Grow?(Sharon

Squassoni)

Nuclear Power and Proliferation

Iran- Direct connection to power

program through fuel enrichment;

- Indirect connection through the A.Q. Kahn network;

- NPT signatory, but in possible violation

North Korea- No direct connection to

power program;- Indirect connection

through the A.Q. Kahn network;

- Withdrew from NPT

Renaissance on the rocks

• As of January 1, 2009 - 17 License applications pending at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for 24 nuclear power plants,

• The reality is that none of the pending applications will be built without massive government support

• In 2009, the renaissance has hit a wall:– Three plants cancelled, others suspended– Several others delayed from one to five years– Half a dozen cost overruns of a billion dollars or more– Cost estimates three times higher than 2002

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Choosing Wisely: Sensible Energy Policy that Might (or Might Not) Improve Nuclear Power’s Prospects

• Implement climate change policy that recognizes value of all carbon reducing technologies, including carbon sequestration, energy efficiency and renewable energy– Carbon caps and markets, or– Carbon taxes– Production tax credits– Remove liability limitations for future projects

• Use neutral market mechanisms – i.e. auctions, integrated resource planning - to choose least costly approaches among these;

• Take the time to deal sensibly with waste and proliferation ;• Rigorous prioritization of options for research purposes – effective, efficient,

expeditiousAvoid funding commericalization as “research”Avoid “pin the tale on the donkey” energy choices

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Implications of Climate Change Policy

• According to the 2003 MIT study, a carbon price of $50/ton of carbon would be consistent with reducing U.S. emissions by 1 billion tons of CO2/year. – At this level, nuclear is only competitive if it achieves other substantial cost

reductions.• At carbon prices in the $100-200/ton range, new nuclear plants become

competitive with conventional fossil fuels.– However, in a fully functional market, nuclear would have to compete

successfully with energy efficiency, with renewables and with carbon sequestration technologies• Historically and probably well into the future, each billion dollars spent on

energy efficiency buys more greenhouse gas mitigation (and other benefits) than would nuclear power.

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U.S. Nuclear Output and Nuclear Capacity, 1973-2007

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Gigawatts

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OVERNIGHT COSTS ($/kw)

DELIVERED COSTS ($/kw)

Study Low Mid High Low Mid High $ DateMIT 1000 2000 2002DOE 1200 1500 1800 2003Keystone 3600 4000 2007S&P 3000 4000 5000 2007AEP 4000 2007DOE Loan 8100 2007Moody's 5000 6000 2007Harding 1 4300 4425 4550 2007CBO 2400 2008Synapse 5500 8100 2008Constellation 3500 4000 4500 2008FPL 3500 4000 4500 2008Lazard 3750 4500 5250 2008Harding 2 5000 2008

E.ON 6000 2008Duke 4900 2008Progress 6400 7600 2009Severance 4900 5800 2008Moody’s 6250 2008

Some Recent Cost Estimates (Mark Cooper, 2009)