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Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer

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Page 1: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer

Page 2: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

NS Network

74% of U.S. population

55% of total energy consumption in U.S.

65% of U.S. manufacturing

Estimate 45M+ truck shipments over 550 miles touch our network

Extensive port access

% of 1H 2014 NS Revenue

Agriculture 13%

MetCon 13%

Paper 7%

Chemicals 16% Auto

8%

Intermodal 22%

Coal 21%

Balanced Portfolio of Business

2

Page 3: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Chicago

Detroit

Cincinnati

Memphis

Louisville

Toledo Cleveland

Pittsburgh

Seaports River Ports Lake Ports

Savannah

Norfolk Portsmouth

Jacksonville

Charleston

Baltimore

NY/NJ Philadelphia Camden/South Jersey

Brunswick

Wilmington

New Orleans Braithwaite

St. Bernard

Mobile

Jeffersonville

Portsmouth

Naples

Granite City

Burns Harbor

Ashtabula Erie

Morehead City

Network of Key Corridors and Port Access

3

Page 4: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

38%

40%

22%

Changing Business Mix

57% 22%

21%

33%

50%

17%

55% 21%

24%

First Half 2006 First Half 2014

Volume

Revenue

3.98 million units $4.7 billion in revenue

3.75 million units $5.7 billion in revenue

Coal Intermodal Merchandise

4

Page 5: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

General Merchandise Coal Intermodal Total

Revenue ($M) Units (000s) 2006 Volume 2014 Volume 2006 Revenue 2014 Revenue

RPU General Merchandise Coal Intermodal Total

1H 2006 $1,734 $1,293 $600 $1,179

1H 2014 $2,651 $1,865 $670 $1,530

RPU CAGR 5.4% 4.7% 1.4% 3.3%

1H 2014 vs. 1H 2006 Total Revenue CAGR: 3%

5

Major Group Comparisons First Half 2014 vs. First Half 2006

Page 6: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Energy ‒ Coal continues in the mix

‒ Oil production – new and projected

‒ Natural gas production and expansion

Manufacturing ‒ Cost of US manufacturing

‒ FDI in the United States

Highway Conversions ‒ $680B in US trucking revenues

‒ Trucking industry is critically challenged

• Highway congestion • Driver availability

‒ Intermodal and carload growth ahead

Agricultural Growth

4 Broad Categories of Growth

6

Page 7: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

David Lawson, Vice President - Coal Jeff Heller, Vice President - Intermodal & Automotive Mike McClellan, Vice President - Industrial Products

7

Page 8: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

NS Coal Network

Extensive network provides access to U.S. coal basins

Outlet to domestic and global markets via coastal, lake, and river ports

Investments to support coal market shifts

Ability to handle growth

Utility 66%

Export 18%

Domestic Met 10%

Industrial 6%

First Half 2014 Volume

8

Page 9: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

NS Utility Coal Volumes Tons in millions

Utility Volume & Basin Shifts

Source: SNL Energy

NS Utility Sourcing Shifts Percentage of NS Utility Volume

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14

CAPP ILB NAPP PRB

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14

9

Page 10: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

U.S. Electricity Generation by Source

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook May 2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Natural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal Petroleum liquids & other

20%

52%

trill

ion

kilo

wat

tho

urs

37%

19%

12%

30% 14%

10%

1% 4%

2012 1994 History Projection

10

Page 11: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

Range of HH Futures thru 2020

Midwest Northeast Southeast

Baseload Competition Coal and NG

Utilization Factors and Sourcing Competitiveness

Source: SNL Energy

Forward HH Price Range $/mmbtu and Illustrative Coal Competition Ranges

NAPP ILB & PRB

NAPP, ILB, PRB

CAPP

Plant Capacity Utilization Weighted avg. capacity factor (CF) for remaining NS plants

Source: SNL Energy

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2010 2011 2012 2013 1H14

Avg. CF Remaining Plants '13/'14 Winter Avg. CF

11

Page 12: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Illinois Basin

2010 - 8% 2014 – 20%

Central Appalachia 2010 – 42% 2014 – 34%

Northern Appalachia 2010 – 29% 2014 – 30%

Western 2010 – 21% 2014 – 16%

12

Coal Basin Origins – 2010 vs 2014 YTD

Page 13: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

NAPP

‒ West Brownsville, PA

‒ South Fork, PA

ILB

‒ Sorrento, IL

‒ White Oak, IL

Freight Car Investments

Investing in Coal’s Future

13

Page 14: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Total U.S. Coal Exports

Source: Doyle Trading Consultants, Quarterly Coal Outlook and Price Forecast , 3Q 2014, 2014 – 2017 are estimated forecasts

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sho

rt T

on

s (M

illio

ns)

Metallurgical Steam NS

14

Page 15: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Global and Domestic Markets Access

Owner East Coast Ports River & Lake

Facilities

NS Norfolk, VA Ashtabula, OH Sandusky, OH

Wheelersburg, OH

3rd Party

Baltimore, MD Charleston, SC

Mobile, AL New Orleans, LA Philadelphia, PA

Cyrus, WV Ceredo, WV Convent, LA

Lamberts Point

Wheelersburg Terminal

15

Page 16: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Upside capacity factor leverage at post-2016 compliant utilities

Coal vs. gas competitiveness with shifting basins

Available capacity to take advantage of changing export demand

Summary

16

Page 17: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Jeff Heller Vice President, Intermodal & Automotive

17

Page 18: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Intermodal Increasing demand for Intermodal Growth focused on markets east of the

Mississippi Rising motor carrier costs and capacity

constraints Strengthening pricing environment

Automotive Increasing North America vehicle production On-line plant expansions and new models On-shoring of vehicle production

Network synergies exist between Intermodal and Automotive

Intermodal & Automotive Environment

18

Page 19: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Norfolk Southern’s Intermodal Network

Intermodal Terminals

On-Dock Access

Interchange Gateways

Hubs & Load Centers

Harrisburg

Atlanta

Charlotte

Chicago

Columbus

Detroit

Savannah

Cincinnati Inland Virginia

Norfolk

New Orleans

Memphis

Dallas

Huntsville

Jacksonville

Charleston

Georgetown Kansas City

St Louis Louisville

Baltimore

Greensboro

Toledo

Decatur Greencastle

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

Boston

Albany Buffalo

Central Florida

New York / New Jersey Bethlehem

Philadelphia

Shreveport

Birmingham 59 Intermodal Terminals

On-Dock access to all major EC ports

Comprehensive transcon service

Distributed “hub and spoke” network

19

Greer

Page 20: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

NS Intermodal Volumes

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 14

Un

its

(m)

Domestic International

NS Intermodal grew 7% in First Half 2014 vs. First Half 2013 Second Quarter 2014 was NS Intermodal’s 18th consecutive quarter of growth

Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2010-2013

2.14% US GDP

3.87% US Intermodal

6.84% NS Intermodal

20

Page 21: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Scratching the Surface Significant opportunity for growth remains

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

13

1Q

14

2Q

14

Total US Truck and IM Moves Over 550 Miles

Domestic Intermodal Shipments Long-Haul Truckloads

Drivers of highway conversion

Highway congestion

Driver wages

Regulatory action

Environmental

Fuel cost

Source: TTX; IANA

21

Page 22: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Driver Market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F

Truckload Costs ($/Loaded Mile, OTR; Index: 2003 = 100)

Labor Overhead Equipment Fuel

8.5% 4.8%

-0.4% 2.5%

Source: FTR

22

Page 23: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

NS Intermodal Network Growth Majority of growth has been in these Corridors

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012 2013

Units In Thousands

Premier MSLLC Crescent Heartland PAS

2010-2013 CAGR

Premier 8%

MSLLC 9%

Crescent 16%

Heartland 20%

PAS 9%

Total 11%

A Network of Key Corridors

New Orleans

Shreveport

Memphis

Birmingham

Atlanta

Charlotte

Cincinnati

Chicago

Detroit

Columbus

Boston Albany

Greencastle

Harrisburg

Bethlehem

Philadelphia

New York/New Jersey

23

Page 24: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Global Changes Enhance Opportunity

Port of NY/NJ

24

Page 25: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

NS Automotive Franchise

27 NS-served assembly plants

35 vehicle distribution facilities

4 million vehicles shipped in 2013

160,000 parts shipments in 2013

A network for domestic and international automotive

25

Page 26: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

North America Vehicle Production

Trend is positive ‒ 42% growth since 2010 ‒ Recent U.S. sales at highest SAAR

since July 2006

NS rail network well-positioned

‒ Production up 61% since 2010 at NS-served plants in Southeast

‒ NS automotive exports up 156% since 2010

Industry outlook for continued

growth ‒ Forecast for over 18 million vehicles

production in 2018

Source: WardsAuto Forecast, August 2014

12.2

13.5

15.8 16.5

17.3

2010 2012 2014

Annual North America Vehicle Production (in millions)

26

Page 27: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

New model releases in 2014 at NS-served plants:

‒ Ford F-series Dearborn, MI and Kansas City, MO

‒ Ford Transit Kansas City, MO

‒ Mercedes C-Class Vance, AL

‒ GM Colorado and Canyon Wentzville, MO

BMW announces $1 billion plant expansion at Greer, SC

Volkswagen announces $900 million investment to expand Chattanooga, TN

Subaru plans for $422 million investment for Impreza at Lafayette, IN

NS-Served Opportunities Assembly Plant Expansions and New Products

27

Page 28: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Summary

NS has the premier Intermodal & Automotive networks in the East

Both franchises are growing and have upside potential in both volume and margin

NS will continue to focus investment on areas of growth

28

Page 29: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Don Seale EVP and Chief Marketing Officer

29

Page 30: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Improving TOP network with the expansion of Bellevue Yard

Improving unit train productivity

Strong equipment position including largest metals fleet in North America

Strong short line partnerships

Best in class Industrial Development

Expanding rail-truck transfer facility footprint ‒ 31 Thoroughbred Bulk Transfer Terminals (TBTs)

Strategic Growth Elements – Industrial Products

First Half 2014 IP Volume

Energy 13%

Manufacturing 49%

Construction 14%

Agriculture 24%

30

Page 31: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Top 10 Growth Markets 2013 vs. 2010 Volume Growth in Carloads

3,000

3,200

3,700

5,200

7,200

7,900

12,300

20,800

21,500

50,700

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

    CANNED GOODS

    PULPBOARD

    CEMENT

    PLASTICS

    FOOD OILS

    LUMBER & WOOD

    SOYBEANS

    COIL STEEL

SAND/OTHER

    PETROLEUM & ENVIRON.

31

Page 32: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

IP Market Segments First Half 2014 vs. First Half 2010 Volume

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1H2014

1H2010

13%

7%

49%

53%

14%

14%

24%

26%

Energy Manufacturing Construction Agriculture

32

Page 33: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Annual Revenue in $M

82% 80% 74%

66% 64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014Utility Coal Ethanol Marcellus/Utica Inputs NGLs Crude Oil

$2,008 $2,313 $2,029 $2,069 $1,130

33

Energy Portfolio Utility Coal Offset by Other Energy-Related Commodities: 2010 – First Half 2014

Page 34: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Industrial Products Energy Portfolio 13% of Total IP Volume in First Half 2014

Ethanol 25%

Shale Inputs 28%

NGLs 16%

Crude Oil

31%

First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue CAGR up 22% vs. 1H 2010

NS has the most direct and efficient route to crude terminals in the East

Access to 65 terminals used for shale input distribution, and over 24 more under consideration

NS serves 22 ethanol production plants totaling two billion gallons in capacity

Access to over 65% of the fractionation capacity in the Marcellus/Utica region

34

Page 35: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Key Strategic Elements of NS CBR Product Offering:

Superior route

Unit train logistics capabilities

Efficient connectivity to strategic terminals and refineries

Export capabilities along the east coast

NS Crude by Rail (CBR) Development

0

50

100

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

NS Crude by Rail Volume (In Thousands)

In Excess of 100K

Chicago

New Jersey

Philadelphia

North Dakota

Oil Sands

35

Page 36: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Marcellus & Utica Shale Deposits 24% of IP Energy Volume

36

Page 37: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Source: IHS Global Insight

NS Manufacturing Market 49% of Total IP Volume

5% 4%

12%

7%

38%

34%

Machinery Paper Scrap

Pulp/Pulpboard Kaolin/Graphic Paper

Metals Chemicals

0.500.600.700.800.901.001.101.201.301.40

U.S. Industrial Production Indexed to 2010

Raw Steel Paper Basic Chemicals

1H 2014 NS manufacturing revenue CAGR up 5% vs. 1H 2010

U.S. manufacturing output is back to 2007 levels

U.S. manufacturing cost competitiveness is improving

Many companies are on-shoring and near-shoring production

First Half 2014 Manufacturing Volume

37

Page 38: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

16%

46%

22%

5% 11%

Lumber/Wood Aggregates

Misc. Construction Waste/C&D

Cement

First Half 2014 Construction Volume

NS Construction Market 14% of Total IP Volume

Sources: BEA; IHS Global Insight

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2

$0

$250

$500

$750

$1,000Residential Non-Res. Housing Starts

Investment Chained 2009 $

Housing Starts M

1H 2014 NS construction revenue CAGR up 6% vs. 1H 2010 Overall housing starts are ahead of last year despite severe weather this year NAHB survey reports stronger current and future home sales Increasing activity in lumber and wood products Non-residential investment growing slower than residential until 2017

38

Page 39: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

First Half 2014 Agriculture Volume

24%

16%

10% 12%

9%

8%

21%

Corn Feed FertilizerSweeteners Wheat SoybeansAll Other

NS Agriculture Market 24% of Total IP Volume

1H 2014 NS agriculture revenue CAGR up 5% vs. 1H 2010

Strong outlook for balance of 2014 due to favorable crop conditions

NS has an excellent and balanced portfolio of origin elevators and grain processors throughout our network

NS Agriculture Network

39

Page 40: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

$276

$335 $340 $342

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2010 2011 2012 2013

Revenue ($M)

Mill

ion

s

Revenue

Industrial Development

2010 2011 2012 2013

RPU $2,093 $2,194 $2,408 $2,513

Average New Revenue Growth: $323 M Annual Volume Growth: 140K

271 new industries located

110 industry expansions

$40B investment by NS customers

18K new customer jobs created in 21 states

562K carloads of new rail traffic

2010 - 2013 Highlights

40

Page 41: Donald W. Seale Executive Vice President and Chief ...nscorp.com/content/dam/investor-day/2014/dws-group... · Crude Oil 31% First Half 2014 Energy Volume 1H 2014 NS energy revenue

Thank you

Four broad categories of growth ahead:

‒ Energy (utility coal plus shale activity)

‒ Manufacturing

‒ Highway conversions to carload and intermodal service

‒ Agricultural growth

Continued focus on strategic expansions in network capacity and service

‒ Intermodal corridors

‒ TBT network

‒ Bellevue classification terminal

Improving service and efficiency for our customers is the cornerstone of our growth strategy

41