domestic terrorism in south east asia: a statistical analysis of the economic effect of domestic...

8/12/2019 Domestic Terrorism in South East Asia: A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Effect of Domestic Terrorism on ASEA

1/33

Diclobb ;

Fy`c DiclobbHrovc Jity Jo``chc

E.K. Woìtijk` Zjicdjc 57;2

Nky 57;1

Qlc prcvk`cdjc ob tcrroristij kjtivity id tlc `ktc 57 tljcdtury kda idto tlc 5;st

jcdtury lks cdjourkhca norc rcsckrjl idto tlc jkuscs kda cbbcjts ob tcrrorisn. Aoncstij

tcrrorisn, aistidjt bron trkdsdktiodk` tcrrorisn, nky itsc`b lkvc k udiquc kavcrsc cbbcjt od

tlc jodaitiod ob k stktc. Id pkrtiju`kr, tlc ncnecr stktcs ob tlc Kssojiktiod ob Zoutlckst

Ksikd Dktiods (KZCKD) lkvc eccd sccd tlc risc ob aoncstij tcrrorist jc``s witlid

KZCKD ncnecr stktcs. Ks tlc psyjloòhijk` cbbcjts, poìtijk` cbbcjts kda ju`turk` cbbcjts

ob tcrrorisn aonidktc poìtijk` rlctorij kda ncaik lckaìdcs, tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob

tcrrorisn tcdas to ec ovcròofca. Xlkt is tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od

KZCKD ncnecr stktcs? Qlc nkmority ob sjlo`krs khrcc tlkt aoncstij tcrrorisn wi`` lkvc

sonc sort ob dchktivc cbbcjt. Aibbcrcdjcs ectwccd sjlo`krs krisc witl aiskhrccncdts ovcr

tlc cxtcdt ob tlc cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od cjodonics. Burtlcr aibbcrcdjcs krisc ovcr

tlc acbiditiod ob kda udacrstkdaidh ob aoncstij tcrrorisn.

Acbididh Aoncstij Qcrrorisn

Aoncstij tcrrorisn ks k suescjtiod ob hòek` tcrrorisn nust ec acbidca.

Sdacrstkdaidh aoncstij tcrrorisn ks k aistidjt typc ob tcrrorisn, k`òws bor k norc j`ckr

udacrstkdaidh ob wlkt jkd kda slouà ec ncksurca auridh kdk`ysis. Qlc ecst wky to

kpprokjl k propcr acbiditiod ob aoncstij tcrrorisn is to acbidc tcrrorisn id hcdcrk` kda

tlcd ksscss low tlcsc hcdcrk` jodjcpts kpp`y or ao dot kpp`y to aoncstij tcrrorisn.

Hcdcrk` acbiditiods ob tcrrorisn krc duncrous eut nost jkd khrcc upod scvcrk`

eksij tcdcts. Bron tlcsc acbiditiods jonc eksij tlcorics ks to tlc cbbcjts ob tcrrorisn.


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Diclobb 5

Qcrrorisn is usuk``y acbidca ks tlc prcncaitktca usc or tlrckt to usc vio`cdjc ey

idaiviauk`s tlrouhl tlc idtiniaktiod ob k `krhc kuaicdjc ecyoda tlkt ob tlc inncaiktc

vijtins (Hkieu`òcv kda Zkda`cr, Ksik :25). Xlkt is sihdibijkdt keout tlis acbiditiod is

tlkt tlc kin ob k tcrrorist kjt or tlrckt is dot ìnitca to tlc tkrhct ob tlc kjt or suemcjt ob

tlc kjt. K wiacr poìtijk` ncsskhc or sojik` ncsskhc to k `krhcr popu`ktiod, dktiodk` or

idtcrdktiodk`, is u`tinktc`y tlc hok` ob tlc tlrckt or kjt. Qlc tlrckt or kjt is k`` keout

hkidslow jkd tlc tlrckt or kjtiod rcsu`t id k poìtijk` kavkdtkhc or k nktcrik` kavkdtkhc

to tlc pcrpctrktidh hroup or pcrpctrktidh idaiviauk`. Xlcd tcrrorisn tkfcs tlc born ob

tcrroristij kjts, tlc kttkjfs nust ec khkidst jiviìkds, obbijik`s, or dod-jonektkdts to ec

acbidca ks tcrrorisn (Cdacrs, Zkda`cr, Hkieu`òcv 57;;, :5;). Qlc dchktivc jodscqucdjcs

ob tcrrorisn krc wiac rkdhidh kda jkd idjùac poìtijk` jodscqucdjcs, sojik`

jodscqucdjcs kda cjodonij jodscqucdjcs. Bor tlc skfc ob tlis promcjt tlc bojus wi`` ec

cjodonij jodscqucdjcs, eut it is inportkdt to udacrstkda tlkt tcrrorisn is dot ìnitca to

its cbbcjt od cjodonics. Id rchkras to tlc cjodonij jodscqucdjcs ob tcrrorisn, Cdacrs

kda O`sod, id tlcir stuay Ncksuridh tlc Cjodonij Josts ob Qcrrorisn, purport tlkt

tcrrorisn lks eotl aircjt cjodonij josts (aisruptidh jonncrjc, acstroyidh idbrkstrujturc,

fi`ìdh pcop`c) kda idaircjt cjodonij josts (aivcrtidh borcihd idvcstncdt, aisruptidh

idtcrdktiodk` trkac) (Cdacr kda O`sod 5779, ;2-;8). Ks wi`` ec aisjussca `ktcr, spcjibij

stuaics od tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob tcrrorisn vcriby tlcsc j`kins ob tlc kavcrsc cjodonij

cbbcjt ob tcrrorisn, eut it is hcdcrk``y lcà tlkt tcrrorisn kt `ckst lks tlc potcdtik` to jkusc

cjodonij aknkhc. Cdacrs kda O`sod òof kt tlc eksij dunecrs rcportca od tlc inpkjt ob

tlc kttkjfs od Kncrijk od Zcptcnecr ;;, 577; tlkt slow tlc aircjt cjodonij jost to lkvc

eccd $


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Diclobb :

$;.8 tri``iod (


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Diclobb 1

propcrty kda poìjics (:5;). Aoncstij tcrrorisns prinkry hok` is to inpkjt tlc stktc id

wlijl tlc kjt ob tcrror is jodaujtca. Qlc kttkjf nky rcsu`t id idtcrdktiodk` kttcdtiod,

idtcrdktiodk` idtcrvcdtiod, or cvcd idaircjt idtcrdktiodk` cjodonij jodscqucdjcs, eut ib

tlc hroup orihidktcs id tlc stktc, tcrrorizcs witlid tlc stktc, kda inpkjts tlc pcop`c,

hovcrdncdt kda/or idbrkstrujturc ob tlc stktc, tlcd tlc tcrrorisn is aoncstij. Qlis

udacrstkdaidh ob aoncstij tcrrorisn wi`` ec cnpòyca tlrouhlout tlc rcst ob tlc promcjt.

Lkvidh cstkeìslca kd udacrstkdaidh ob tlc acbiditiod ob tcrrorisn, kda tlc aistidjtiod ob

aoncstij tcrrorisn ks k suescjtiod ob tcrrorisn, witlid tlc cxistidh ìtcrkturc krc nkdy

stuaics wortl cxknididh tlkt ncksurc tlc cjodonij inpkjt ob tcrrorisn.

Qlc Cjodonij Jodscqucdjcs ob Qcrrorisn

Xli`c tlc bojus ob tlis promcjt is tlc cjodonij inpkjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn,

cxistidh rcsckrjl poidts to tlc keiìty ob tcrrorisn od ks k wlo`c to cbbcjt cjodonics.

Kspcjts ob tlis rcsckrjl wi`` lc`p udacrstkda tlc inpkjt aoncstij tcrrorisn jkd lkvc od

cjodonics. Qlc hòek` issuc ob tcrrorisn idjùacs kjts ob aoncstij tcrrorisn kda kjts ob

trkdsdktiodk` tcrrorisn, kda stuaics ob tcrrorisn ks k wlo`c slow tlkt tcrrorisn aocs lkvc

kd kavcrsc cbbcjt od cjodonij c`cncdts.

Dijo`c Jrkid kda Nkrf Jrkids stuay tit`ca Qcrrorizca Cjodonics, ncksurcs tlc

inpkjt ob tcrrorisn od HAW, HAW hrowtl, idvcstncdt, jodsuncr spcdaidh kda tourisn

(Jrkid kda Jrkid 5772, :;8). Qlc IQCUKQC aktk scrics, wlijl idjùacs ncksurcs ob

;;,58: hòek` tcrrorist idjiacdts sidjc ;92


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Diclobb 3

proaujca noac`s, Jrkid kda Jrkid bouda tlkt ib k`` tlc tcrrorists idjiacdts tlkt ojjurrca id

5775 aia dot ojjur, tlcd worà totk` worà HAW wouà lkvc eccd $:.2 tri`ìod lihlcr tlkd

it kjtuk``y wks id 5775 (::2). Ey sinp`y rcnovidh odc vkrike`c, tcrrorisn, tlc hòek`

cjodony wouà dot lkvc subbcrca k nu`ti-tri`ìod ao``kr òss id HAW. Qlis stuay

cstkeìslcs tlc rc`cvkdjc ob tcrrorisn ks k actrincdtk` borjc to cjodonics ks k wlo`c.

Otlcr stuaics lkvc cxknidca spcjibij krcks ob tlc cjodonij cbbcjt tcrrorisn, proviaidh

norc idsihlt idto tlc potcdtik` jkusk` rc`ktiodslip ectwccd tcrrorisn kda hrowtl.

Ro`fcr Ditsjl kda Aictcr Zjlunkjlcr jodaujtca k stuay tit`ca Qcrrorisn kda

Qrkac, id wlijl tlc cbbcjt ob tcrrorisn od ei`ktcrk` trkac bron ;927 to ;99: wks

ncksurca. Ditsjl kda Zjlunkjlcr bouda tlkt stktcs wlo lkvc k lihlcr `cvc` ob tcrrorist

kjtivity, ojjurridh witlid tlcir eoracrs, trkac nujl `css tlkd stktcs udkbbcjtca ey

tcrrorisn (Ditsjl kda Zjlunkjlcr 577:,


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Diclobb 2

hrowtl aocs dot jkusk``y idb`ucdjc tcrrorisn (9


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Diclobb 8

K 5779 stuay ey Hkieu`òcv kda Zkda`cr, Qlc Inpkjt ob Qcrrorisn kda Jodbìjts

od Hrowtl id Ksik, hivcs inportkdt idsihlts idto tlc cbbcjt ob tcrrorisn witlid tlc rchiod

ob Ksik tlkt jorroeorktcs tlc prcvious stuaicsj`kins rchkraidh tlc aibbcrcdjc id

cjodonij inpkjt eksca upod cxistidh cjodonij jodaitiods. Id ncksuridh tcrrorist cvcdts

bron ;981-5771, Hkieu`òcv kda Zkda`cr bouda tlkt acvcòpca Ksikd joudtrics slow

ìtt`c to do cjodonij hrowtl rcaujtiod ks k rcsu`t ob trkdsdktiodk` tcrrorisn, wli`c

trkdsdktiodk` tcrrorisn rcaujca pcr jkpitk HAW bor acvcòpidh Ksikd joudtrics

(Hkieu`òcv kda Zkda`cr 5779, :89). Qlis stuay burtlcr slows tlc inportkdjc ob kt `ckst

rcjohdizidh tlc cxistidh jodaitiods ob stktcs. Bor Ksik spcjibijk``y, tlis stuay proviacs

inportkdt idsihlt. Xli`c tlis is k stuay ob trkdsdktiodk` tcrrorisn, it is dodctlc`css

kppkrcdt tlkt acvcòpidh Ksikd stktcs krc norc prodc to tlc kavcrsc cjodonij cbbcjts ob

tcrrorisn. Bojusidh rcsckrjl od spcjibij krcks is inportkdt wlcd ncksuridh aoncstij

tcrrorisn. Qlc cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn id hcdcrk`, kda tlc cbbcjt ob aoncstij

tcrrorisn od idaiviauk` rchiods lkvc k`so eccd kdk`yzca witlid tlc cxistidh ìtcrkturc.

Qlc Cjodonij Inpkjt ob Aoncstij Qcrrorisn

K`` tlc stuaics tlkt lkvc eccd aisjussca up to tlis poidt ao dot nkfc kdy

aistidjtiod ectwccd trkdsdktiodk`/hòek`/idtcrdktiodk` tcrrorisn kda aoncstij tcrrorisn.

Kjts ob aoncstij tcrror krc idjùaca id tlc jk`ju`ktiods, eut krc dot hivcd spcjik`

kttcdtiod. Qlc stuaics krc sti`` inportkdt id cstkeìslidh cviacdjc ob tlc hcdcrk` cjodonij

inpkjt ob tcrrorisn. Low tlcsc inpkjts trkds`ktc to tlc cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn

spcjibijk``y nust ec slowd. Id oracr to nkfc tlcn rc`cvkdt to k stuay ob aoncstij

tcrrorisn, it nust ec slowd tlkt tlc vcry sknc c`cncdts tcrrorisn ks wlo`c cbbcjts

idtcrdktiodk``y, aoncstij tcrrorisn cbbcjts aoncstijk``y. Qlc cxistidh ìtcrkturc suhhcsts


8/33

Diclobb do. Qlc Idtcrdktiodk`Kdy ob tlc Keovc vkrike`c joneidca tlcsc tlrcc vkrike`cs

tohctlcr to actcrnidc tlc dkturc ob tlc kttkjfcitlcr aoncstij or idtcrdktiodk`. Zo ib tlc

Idtcrdktiodk`Kdy ob tlc Keovc vkrike`c wks cquk` to ;, tlc cvcdt wks kd kjt ob

idtcrdktiodk` tcrrorisn, kda ib tlc Idtcrdktiodk`Kdy ob tlc Keovc vkrike`c wks cquk`

to 7, tlc cvcdt wks kd kjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn. Idtcrdktiodk`Kdy ob tlc Keovc wks

rcjoaca ks Idtcrdktiodk` kttkjf or aoncstij kttkjf so tlkt 7>aoncstij tcrrorisn kda

;>idtcrdktiodk` tcrrorisn. Qlis vkrike`c wks tlcd usca ks k bi`tcr to c`inidktc k`` kjts ob

idtcrdktiodk` tcrrorisn. Kbtcr tlc bi`tcr wks kpp`ica, tlc totk` D ob jkscs aroppca bron


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Diclobb ;1

182< totk` kjts ob tcrrorisn, to ;:91 totk` jkscs ob aoncstij tcrrorisn. Ks k rcsu`t ob tlc

bi`tcr, od`y scvcd ob tlc totk` c`cvcd KZCKD ncnecr stktcs idjurrca kd kjt ob aoncstij

tcrrorisn bron ;993-57;5. Erudci, Zidhkporc, Qinor-@cstc kda Rictdkn aia dot idjur

kdy aoncstij tcrrorist kttkjfs auridh tlc tincbrknc ob kdk`ysis. Qlcsc stktcs wcrc dot

sinp`y cìnidktca bron kdk`ysis, bor k`` KZCKD stktcs krc suemcjt to kdk`ysis id tlis

promcjt, kda wcrc sti`` idjùaca id tlc promcjt (low tlcy wcrc idjùaca wi`` ec kaarcssca

`ktcr). Qlc rcjoaca Idtcrdktiodk` kttkjf or aoncstij kttkjf vkrike`c usca ks k bi`tcr is k

sktisbkjtory idstruncdt to aistidhuisl aoncstij tcrrorisn ecjkusc it rcnovcs idjiacdts

tlkt lkvc kdy lidt ob idtcrdktiodk` idbùcdjc. Qo ncksurc tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob tlc ;:91

aoncstij tcrrorisn idjiacdts id KZCKD ncnecr stktcs bron ;993-57;5, aktkscts tlkt

idjùac HAW, HAW pcr jkpitk kda aircjt borcihd idvcstncdt wcrc usca.

Yckr`y hross aoncstij proaujt, yckr`y hross aoncstij proaujt pcr jkpitk kda

yckr`y aircjt borcihd idvcstncdt wcrc k`` hktlcrca id oracr to ncksurc cjodonij bkjtors

tlkt nky ec inpkjtca ey aoncstij tcrrorisn. Qwijc k yckr, tlc Idtcrdktiodk` Nodctkry

Buda (INB) jodaujts k survcy tlkt ncksurcs vkrious cjodonij idaijktors, rcsu`tidh id tlc

Xorà Cjodonij Outòof (XCO) aktksct. Qlc XCO aktksct usca id tlis stuay wks

pueìslca id Kpri` ob 57;1 kda tlc spcjibij aktk arkwd bron tlc aktksct wcrc HAW kda

HAW pcr jkpitk ob k`` c`cvcd KZCKD ncnecr stktcs bron ;993 to 57;5 (Xorà

Cjodonij Outòof, 57;1). Eotl HAW kda HAW pcr jkpitk krc ncksurca id jurrcdt S.Z.

ao``krsHAW id ei`ìods ob S.Z. ao``krs, HAW pcr jkpitk id idaiviauk` S.Z. ao``kr udits

(57;1). Aktk od borcihd aircjt idvcstncdt idto KZCKD ncnecr stktcs bron ;993-57;5

wks hktlcrca bron tlc Xorà Ekdfsaktksct od Borcihd Aircjt Idvcstncdt, Dct Idbòws

(jurrcdt SZ$).Kjjoraidh to tlc Xorà Ekdf wcesitc, nost Xorà Ekdf cjodonij aktk


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Diclobb ;3

joncs bron tlc stktistijk` systcns ob ncnecr joudtrics, kda tlc qukìty ob hòek` aktk

acpcdas od low wc`` tlcsc dktiodk` systcns pcrborn(Borcihd Aircjt57;1). Xorà

Ekdf aktk is hcdcrk``y lcà to ec rcìke`c, eut tlc bkjt tlkt dunecrs krc, bor tlc nost pkrt,

suenittca ey ncnecr stktcs nust ec dotca. Kssunidh tlkt do hovcrdncdt dunecrs krc

pcrbcjt, tlcrc is k jlkdjc tlkt dot k`` dunecrs krc jonp`ctc`y kjjurktc. Ovcrk``, eotl INB

aktk kda Xorà Ekdf aktk krc rcìke`c kda krc usca to ncksurc tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob

tcrrorisn id tlc noac`s.

Qlc Acpcdacdt Rkrike`cs

Qlrcc acpcdacdt vkrike`cs, wcrc jrcktca to ncksurc tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob

aoncstij tcrrorisn. Obtcd ncdtiodca id tlc promcjt tlus bkr lks eccd tlc plrksc

cjodonij cbbcjt.Xlkt cxkjt`y is nckdt ey cjodonij cbbcjt is wlkt wi`` ec ncksurca

id tlc acpcdacdt vkrike`cs. HAW, HAW pcr jkpitk kda borcihd aircjt idvcstncdt wcrc k``

jloscd ks ncksurcs ob cjodonij cbbcjt eksca upod tlc hcdcrk` jodjcpts ob tlc

jodscqucdjcs ob tcrrorisn kda tlc jodjùsiods ob tlc cxistidh ìtcrkturc. Ks stktca ckrìcr,

aoncstij tcrrorisn is lcà to ec jodaujtca ey hroups tlkt krc dktivc to, kda opcrktc

witlid, tlc stktc id wlijl tlc kjt ob tcrror is jkrrica out. K aoncstij tcrrorist kttkjf jkd

lkvc k potcdtik` kavcrsc cbbcjt od tlrcc cjodonij kspcjts witlid tlc stktc= tlc

hovcrdncdt ob tlc stktc, tlc idaiviauk` jitizcds ob tlc stktc kda tlc cjodonij

idbrkstrujturc ob tlc stktc. Qo ncksurc tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od tlc

hovcrdncdt ob KZCKD ncnecr stktcs, tlc HAW ob tlc stktc is tlc acpcdacdt vkrike`c id

Noac` ;. Ztuaics lkvc slowd tlkt tcrrorisn ks k wlo`c jkd lkvc kd inpkjt od eotl worà

HAW hrowtl, idaiviauk` stktc HAW hrowtl kda idaiviauk` rchiod HAW hrowtl (Jrkid kda

Jrkid 5772). Qo ncksurc tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od tlc jitizcds ob kd


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Diclobb ;2

KZCKD ncnecr stktc, HAW pcr Jkpitk is tlc acpcdacdt vkrike`c id Noac` 5. HAW pcr

jkpitk is dot k b`kw`css idaijktor ob tlc cjodonij jodaitiod ob tlc popuòus, eut HAW pcr

jkpitk aocs proviac kd kppropriktc vkrike`c to ncksurc potcdtik` bùjtuktiod id cjodonij

hrowtl tlkt kbbcjts tlc jitizcds aircjt`y. Kekaic kda Hkrackzkek`sstuay od tlc Eksquc

rchiod jodjùaca tlkt kd idjrcksc id aoncstij tcrrorisn scvcrity id tlc Eksquc rchiod

jkusca k acjrcksc id HAW pcr jkpitk id tlc rchiod (Kekaic kda Hkrackzkek` 577:). Qo

ncksurc tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od tlc cjodonij idbrkstrujturc ob kd

KZCKD ncnecr stktc, aircjt borcihd idvcstncdt is tlc acpcdacdt vkrike`c ob Noac` :.

Aircjt borcihd idvcstncdt is dcjcsskry bor tlc idbrkstrujturc to cxpcricdjc jodsistcdt

hrowtl kda acvcòpncdt. Ditsjl kda Zjlunkjlcrs stuay rcvck`ca tlkt tcrrorisn jkd k`so

lkvc kd kavcrsc cbbcjt od trkac kda idvcstncdt idto stktc id wlijl kjts ob tcrror krc

ojjurridh (Ditsjl kda Zjlunkjlcr 577:). K`` tohctlcr tlcsc vkrike`cs ncksurc tlrcc

scpkrktc, yct rc`ktca, cjodonij bkjtors id tlrcc scpkrktc noac`s to kjjurktc`y ncksurc kdy

potcdtik` cjodonij cbbcjt, positivc or dchktivc, ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od Zoutlckst Ksikd

cjodonics.

K`` tlrcc ob tlcsc vkrike`cs ob cjodonij cbbcjt wcrc rcjoaca idto oraidk` ncksurcs

bor tlc skfc ob ncksurcncdt. Wrior to jrcktidh tlc oraidk` vkrike`cs, k`` tlrcc wcrc k``

kamustca to proaujc k odc yckr `kh. Qlc `khs tlkt rcsu`tca, suetrkjtca bron tlc orihidk`

HAW aktk, rcsu`tca id tlrcc dcw vkrike`cs tlkt ncksurca tlc jlkdhc id HAW, HAW pcr

jkpitk kda borcihd aircjt idvcstncdt bron tlc yckr ecborc. Qlis jlkdhc id ncksurc is

dcjcsskry ecjkusc ny lypotlcscs purport tlkt aoncstij tcrrorisn wi`` jkusc k acjrcksc id

tlc sc`cjtca cjodonij bkjtors, eut kdy potcdtik` jlkdhc wi`` lkvc eccd jkusca ey tlc kjts

ob aoncstij tcrror tlkt ojjurrca tlc yckr ecborc. Ey ksscssidh tlc jlkdhc id cjodonij


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Diclobb ;8

bkjtors bron prcvious yckrs, tlc cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn tlkt ojjurrca id tlc prcvious

yckr jkd ec ncksurca. Qlc dcw vkrike`cs, jlkdhc id HAW bron tlc prcvious yckr,

jlkdhc id HAW pcr jkpitk bron tlc prcvious yckr kda jlkdhc id aircjt borcihd

idvcstncdt bron tlc prcvious yckr, wcrc tlcd rcjoacaidto tlrcc scpkrktc oraidk`

vkrike`cs. Kdy acjrckscs id HAW bron tlc prcvious yckr, HAW pcr jkpitk bron tlc

prcvious yckr, or borcihd idvcstncdt bron tlc prcvious yckr wcrc hivcd tlc vkùc ob ; kda

wcrc `kec`ca ks dchktivc jlkdhc. Kdy idjrckscs id HAW bron tlc prcvious yckr, HAW

pcr jkpitk bron tlc prcvious yckr, or borcihd idvcstncdt bron tlc prcvious yckr wcrc

hivcd tlc vkùc ob 5 kda wcrc `kec`ca ks positivc jlkdhc. Ib do jlkdhc bron tlc

prcvious yckr cxistca id kdy ob tlc tlrcc vkrike`cs tlcd k vkùc ob 7, or do jlkdhc.

Bihurc ;. Jlkdhc id HAW bron tlc Wrcvious Yckr

Brcqucdjy Wcrjcdt Rkìa Wcrjcdt Junu`ktivc

Wcrjcdt

Rkìa

Do Jlkdhc ;:;<


18/33

Diclobb ;; kda do>7. K`` bour

dcw vkrike`cs wcrc khkid rcjoaca idto oraidk` vkrike`cs to propcr`y ncksurc tlc

nkhdituac ob ckjl tcrrorist kttkjf. Ecidh tlkt cvcry kttkjf is dot tlc sknc, ksscssidh tlc

nkhdituac ob ckjl kttkjfs is inportkdt to ksscss. K`` bour vkrike`cs wcrc rcjoaca idto

oraidk` `cvc` aktk vkrike`cs. Ckjl dcw vkrike`c uscs tlc sknc sjk`c bron ;-;7 to ncksurc

tlc nkhdituac ob tlc cvcdt= 7>do nkhdituac, ;-3>òw nkhdituac, 2>ncaiun nkhdituac,

8>ncaiun lihl nkhdituac, lihl nkhdituac, 9>vcry lihl nkhdituac, ;7> cxtrcnc`y

lihl nkhdituac. Qlc nkddcr id wlijl ckjl vkrike`c wks rcjoaca, jkd ec bouda id tlc

Kppcdaix ;. Qlc rcsu`t ob tlc rcjoaidh wks 1 dcw oraidk` vkrike`cs= nkhdituac ob

fi``ca, nkhdituac ob woudaca, nkhdituacob propcrty aknkhc, kda nkhdituac ob

lostkhcs tkfcd. Inportkdt to dotc is tlkt sonc vkrike`cs lkvc k lihlcr vkùc tlkd otlcrs.

Hividh ckjl vkrike`c aibbcrcdt `cvc`s ob nkhdituac lc`pca to aistidhuisl sonc vkrike`cs

ks lkvidh, ovcrk``, norc nkhdituac tlkd otlcr vkrike`cs. Bor cxknp`c, nkhdituac ob

fi``ca stkrts kt k vkùc ob 2, purportidh tlkt kdy kttkjf tlkt rcsu`ts id acktl is kt `ckst ob

ncaiun nkhdituac, wli`c nkhdituac ob lostkhcs is od`y hivcd k vkùc ob 2 ib lostkhcs

wcrc tkfcd. K`` bour vkrike`cs wcrc tlcd kaaca tohctlcr idto k dcw vkrike`c, joneidca

nkhdituac. Zidjc tlis vkrike`c kaaca tohctlcr bour vkrike`cs, witl vkùcs rkdhidh bron

;-;7, tlc rcsu`tidh vkùcs rkdhca kdywlcrc bron 7-:5. Qo k`òw bor norc jodjisc oraidk`

ncksurcncdt, tlcsc vkùcs wcrc rcjoaca idto k rkdhc ob ;-3 id tlc dcw vkrike`c

joneidca nkhdituac ob kttkjf.@istca birst krc tlc vkùcs bron tlc oà vkrike`c kda

ìstca scjoda is tlc dcw vkùc id bidk` nkhdituac ob kttkjf=

;-:;>òw nkhdituac, 1-85>ncaiun nkhdituac, lihl nkhdituac, ;8-571>vcry lihl

nkhdituac, 5;-:53>cxtrcnc`y lihl nkhdituac


20/33

Diclobb 57

Ks stktca ckrìcr id tlc promcjt, bour KZCKD ncnecr stktcs (Erudci, Zidhkporc,

Qinor-@cstc kda Rictdkn) aia dot cxpcricdjc kdy kjts ob aoncstij tcrrorisn bron ;993-

57;5. Qo kjjoudt bor tlis, k dcw vkrike`c, aia aoncstij tcrror ojjur id tlis yckr, wks

jrcktca ks k sinp`c donidk` vkrike`c tlkt hkvc k`` cvcdts ob aoncstij tcrrorist kttkjf k

vkùc ob ;, kda k`` stktcs tlkt dcvcr idjurrca k aoncstij tcrrorist kttkjf. Aia aoncstij

tcrror ojjur id tlis yckr wks nu`tipìca ey joneidca nkhdituac ob kttkjf, hividh k``

yckrs id wlijl do kttkjf ojjurrca id Erudci, Zidhkporc, Qinor-@cstc kda Rictdkn k

vkùc ob 7, cqukìdh zcro nkhdituac. K`` kjts ob aoncstij tcrror wcrc nu`tipìca ey ; kda

tlcrcborc rcnkidca kt tlc sknc `cvc` ob nkhdituac ks id joneidca nkhdituac ob kttkjf.

Qlc bo`òwidh is k brcqucdjy tke`c bor bidk` nkhdituac ob kttkjf.

Qke`c 1. Bidk` nkhdituac ob kttkjf

Brcqucdjy Wcrjcdt Rkìa

Wcrjcdt

Junu`ktivc

Wcrjcdt

Rkìa Do nkhdituac 85 1.9% 3.8% 3.8

@ow Nkhdituac ;;1 8.


21/33

Diclobb 5;

tlc idaiviauk`s aircjt`y kbbcjtca ey tlc kttkjf, ks wc`` ks tlosc idaircjt`y kbbcjtca kda tlc

hovcrdncdt wlo lks to ack` witl tlc lunkd òss, dchktivc`y cbbcjtidh HAW kda HAW pcr

jkpitk. Wcop`c witlid tlc stktc jouà òsc vkùca propcrty or eusidcss rcvcduc.

Jodscqucdt`y, tlc stktc jouà òsc jrcaieiìty ks ecidh ke`c to protcjt tlc jitizcds kda

eusidcss witlid stktc eoracrs, aisjourkhidh borcihd idvcstncdt.

Jrosstkeu`ktiods kda Ncksurcncdts

Bor tlc skfc ob spkjc, k`` jrosstkeu`ktiods jkd ec bouda id tlc kppcdaijcs=

Kppcdaix 5- bidk` nkhdituac ob kttkjfHAW jlkdhc jrosstkeu`ktiod6 Kppcdaix :- bidk`

nkhdituac ob kttkjfHAW pcr jkpitk jlkdhc jrosstkeu`ktiod6 Kppcdaix 1- bidk`

nkhdituac ob kttkjfaircjt borcihd idvcstncdt jrosstkeu`ktiod. Ecòw krc tlc jli-squkrc

vkùc, achrcc ob brccaon, soncrs a vkùc, hknnk vkùc kda tku-j vkùc bor ckjl

jrosstkeu`ktiod.

Jrosstkeu`ktiod Dknc Jli-Zqukrc

AB Jli-squkrcjritijk`

Zoncrs

aHknnk Qku-j

Bidk` nkhdituac ob Kttkjf

HAW Jlkdhc

;3.:11 < ;3.378 .752 .;23 .7;1

Bidk` nkhdituac ob kttkjfHAW pcr jkpitk jlkdhc

;3.9;8 < ;3.378 .71 .55< .75;

Bidk` nkhdituac ob kttkjfborcihd aircjt idvcstncdt

5;.:;8 < ;3.378 .733 .5


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Diclobb 55

jrosstkeu`ktiod, tlc Jli-Zqukrc vk`uc is ;3.:11 kda tlc Jli-Zqukrc jritijk` vk`uc, bor k

achrcc ob brccaon


23/33

Diclobb 5:

Bidaidhs

Eksca upod tlc noac` jonposca usidh aktk bron tlc INB, Xorà Ekdf kda HQA,

scvcrk` pcrtidcdt rcsu`ts nust ec aisjussca. Qlc qucstiod posca kt tlc echiddidh ob tlc

promcjt wks wlkt is tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od KZCKD ncnecr

stktcs? Qlc qucstiod wks kdswcrca ecjkusc tlc tlrcc noac`s usca to tcst ny lypotlcscs

rchkraidh tlis qucstiod suhhcst tlkt tlc cjodonij cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od KZCKD

ncnecr stktcs is k vcry ìnitca cbbcjt, ib kdy cbbcjt kt k``.

Xli`c tlc noac`s ncksuridh tlc cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od HAW kda tlc

cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od HAW pcr jkpitk aia lka nidink` to do stktistijk`

sihdibijkdjc, tlc bidk` noac` proaujca stktistijk``y sihdibijkdt rcsu`ts. Ny birst lypotlcsis

wks tlktkd idjrcksc id tlc knoudt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn id kd KZCKD ncnecr stktc wi``

jkusc k acjrcksc id hross aoncstij proaujt.Qlc Jli-Zqukrc ncksurc ob tlc bidk`

nkhdituac ob kttkjfjlkdhc id HAW jrosstke usca to tcst tlis lypotlcsis wks dot lihl

cdouhl to rcdacr tlc noac` to ec stktistijk``y sihdibijkdt, tlcrcborc tlis lypotlcsis is

actcrnidca to ec idjorrcjt. Kd idjrcksc id aoncstij tcrrorisn id KZCKD ncnecr stktcs

aocs dot jkusc k acjrcksc id HAW. Ny scjoda lypotlcsis wks tlkt kd idjrcksc id tlc

knoudt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn id kd KZCKD ncnecr stktc wi`` jkusc k acjrcksc id hross

aoncstij proaujt pcr jkpitk. Xli`c tlc Jli-Zqukrc ncksurc bor tlc bidk` nkhdituac ob

kttkjfjlkdhc id HAW pcr jkpitk jrosstke usca to ncksurc tlis lypotlcsis wksmust

lihl cdouhl to rcdacr tlc aktk to ec stktistijk``y sihdibijkdt, tlc aircjtiodk` kda

synnctrijk` ncksurcs krc vcry òw. Zo, tlc du`` lypotlcsis is acdica, eut tlc orihidk`

lypotlcsis lks vcry ìnitca support eksca upod tlc vcry wckf aircjtiodk` ncksurcs. Ny


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Diclobb 51

bidk` lypotlcsis wks tlkt kd idjrcksc id tlc knoudt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn id kd KZCKD

ncnecr stktc wi`` jkusc k acjrcksc id borcihd aircjt idvcstncdt.Qlc noac` usca to tcst

tlis tlira lypotlcsis, bidk` nkhdituac ob kttkjfjlkdhc id borcihd aircjt idvcstncdt,

wks stktistijk``y sihdibijkdt kda slowca norc ob k sihd ob k strodh rc`ktiodslip ectwccd

tlc idacpcdacdt vkrike`c kda tlc acpcdacdt vkrike`c. K`` ob tlc vkùcs, hknnk, tku-j kda

Zoncrs a, wcrc k``, lowcvcr, nkrhidk``y òw.Dodc ob tlcsc vkùcs cxjccas .5


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Diclobb 53

bour joudtrics wcrc cìnidktca bron tlc aktksct. Qinor-@cstc is too youdh to lkvc oàcr

jkscs, eut kjts ob aoncstij tcrror jouà lkvc ojjurrca id Erudci, Zidhkporc kda Rictdkn

prior to ;993. K`` lypotlcscs wcrc dot jodjcrdca witl tlc prcvk`cdjc ob kttkjfs, eut witl

tlc cbbcjt ob tlc kttkjfs od KZCKD ncnecr stktc cjodonics. Ey cxpkdaidh tlc

tincbrknc to ;987-57;5, norc kjts ob aoncstij tcrror jouà lkvc eccd jonpkrca to

jlkdhcs id HAW, HAW pcr jkpitk kda aircjt borcihd idvcstncdt, kda jouà lkvc proaujca

aibbcrcdt rcsu`ts. Qlc nkddcr jloscd to ncksurc nkhdituac jouà k`so ec sccd ks

proe`cnktij. Qlc acktl to``, knoudt woudaca, propcrty aknkhca kda lostkhcs tkfcd wcrc

k`` usca to ncksurc nkhdituac. Qlc hok` ob idjùaidh k`` bour ob tlcsc vkrike`cs wks to

cdsurc k jonprclcdsivc jodjcpt ob kttkjf nkhdituac, eut nky lkvc eccd kd idsubbijicdt

ncksurc. K sinp`cr sjk`c vkrike`c tlkt od`y idjorporktca tlc knoudt ob fi``ca jouà lkvc

eccd k norc kjjcssie`c ncksurc. Ey joneididh k`` bour, tlcrc is risf bor inpropcr

kssojiktiod. Bor cxknp`c, kd kttkjf nky lkvc fi``ca 577 pcop`c kda woudaca 37, eut ib

do lostkhcs wcrc tkfcd kda do propcrty wks aknkhca, tlcd tlc nkhdituac ob tlc kttkjf

wouà ec òwcr tlkd ib lostkhcs wcrc tkfcd kda propcrty aknkhca. Eksca upod ny

ncksurcncdts, kd kttkjf tlkt idjùaca lostkhcs kda rcsu`tca id propcrty aknkhc jouà ec

ncksurca ks cquk` id nkhdituac to kd kttkjf tlkt rcsu`tca witl scvcd acktls kda twcdty

woudaca. Cquktidh aknkhc to propcrty witl scvcd lunkd acktls is k proe`cnktij

nctloa. Xli`c k ncksurc tlkt od`y idjùacs fi``ca kda woudaca jouà ec sccd ks ìnitca

id sjopc k`so, idjùaidh od`y woudaca kda fi``ca wouà proviac k norc rcìke`c ncksurc,

kda u`tinktc`y k norc rcìke`c noac`.

Jodjùsiod


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Diclobb 52

Xli`c I aia dot bida subbijicdt support bor k`` tlrcc lypotlcscs, tlc rcsu`ts ob k``

tlrcc noac`s proviac idsihlts tlkt vkìaktc ckrìcr stuaics. Qlc rcsu`ts cdjourkhc KZCKD

stktc obbijik`s to jodsiacr tlc cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od KZCKD ncnecr stktcs, kda

cdjourkhc poìtijk` sjicdtists to jodaujt norc bojusca rcsckrjl od aoncstij tcrrorisn.

Birst, tlc rcsu`ts rchkraidh borcihd idvcstncdt nky dot lkvc lka strodh

sihdibijkdjc, eut tlc rcsu`ts aia slow tlkt kd idjrcksc id aoncstij tcrrorisn id kd KZCKD

ncnecr stktc wi`` jkusc k sìhlt acjrcksc id aircjt borcihd idvcstncdt. Qlis rcsu`t provcs

tlkt is dot must trkdsdktiodk` tcrrorisn, eut aoncstij tcrrorisn, wi`` lkvc kd cbbcjt od tlc

knoudt ob nodcy kda jkpitk` otlcr joudtrics krc wi`ìdh to scda idto KZCKD ncnecr

stktcs. Nujl kttcdtiod lks eccd hivcd ey KZCKD id jonekttidh idtcrdktiodk` tcrrorisn.

Id 5775, KZCKD sihdca kd khrccncdt to worf tohctlcr to jonekt idtcrdktiodk` tcrrorisn

(Jlku 577


27/33

Diclobb 58

cjodonij cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od Kbrijk kda X. Curopc proaujca aibbcrcdt

rcsu`ts. Qlc Kbrijk stuay jodjùaca tlkt aoncstij tcrrorisn lka do cbbcjt od cjodonij

hrowtl, id Kbrijk (Hkieu`òcv kda Zkda`cr 57;;, :22). Qlc stuay od Xcstcrd Curopc

jodjùaca tlkt aoncstij tcrrorist cvcdts bron ;98;-5771 rcaujca cjodonij hrowtl ey

.5%, id Xcstcrd Curopc (155). Qlc stuay od aoncstij tcrrorisn id tlc Eksquc rchiod

bouda tlkt kd idjrcksc id kttkjf scvcrity jkusca k acjrcksc id HAW pcr jkpitk (Kekaic kda

Hkrackzkek` 577:). Qlis stuay od KZCKD ncnecr stktcs jodjùaca tlkt aoncstij

tcrrorisn lks k nidink` cbbcjt id acjrcksidh aircjt borcihd idvcstncdt, eut do cbbcjt od

HAW or HAW pcr jkpitk, id KZCKD ncnecr stktcs. K`` bour ob tlcsc stuaics proaujca

tlrcc rcsu`ts tlkt wcrc udiquc to tlc krck ob stuay. Woìtijk` sjicdtists nust stuay aoncstij

tcrrorisn id k rchiod ey rchiod, cvcd stktc ey stktc, nkddcr. Do rchiod or stktc is tlc

sknc, so stuaics slouà dot ec ovcrrckjlidh id kssunidh tlkt odc stuay ob tlc cbbcjt

aoncstij tcrrorisn od cjodonics is actcrnidktivc ob tlc cbbcjt ob aoncstij tcrrorisn od

cjodonics id k`` otlcr jkscs.

Xli`c jlkdhca nctloaoòhy kda k`tcrca aktk jouà lkvc proaujca norc

sihdibijkdt noac`s, tlis promcjt u`tinktc`y proviaca inportkdt idsihlts. Burtlcr cxpkdsiod

ob tlc jodjcpts, aktk kda noac`s cnpòyca id tlis promcjt jouà cvcdtuk``y proviac k

jodjùsivc kdswcr. Eut bor dow, tlis promcjt lks slowd tlkt borcihd aircjt idvcstncdt is

sìhlt`y acjrcksca ey aoncstij tcrrorisn id KZCKD ncnecr stktcs. Qlis promcjt lks k`so

cdjourkhca poìtijk` sjicdtists to bojus od stktcs kda rchiods wlcd jodaujtidh rcsckrjl

od aoncstij tcrrorisn. Kda ecjkusc ob tlcsc rcsu`ts I wouà jodsiacr tlis promcjt to ec k

sujjcss.


28/33

Diclobb 5

domestic terrorism in south east asia: a statistical analysis of the economic effect of domestic...

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