Does a technology to reduce defector’s negative impacts “worsen” social dilemmas? - Backfire effect of purchasing an eco-car

Satoshi Fujii (Kyoto University) & Hiroyuki Ohta (Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport)

How to solve SD?1) Behavioral solution - Behavior change from D to C.

2) Technological Solution - Reduction of negative impacts of D. e.g. promoting food with little packages, and promoting ECO -TV, -Air. Con. -Car with low CO2 emission

Unintended effects of reduction of negative impacts of D?IF such technology to reduce negative impacts of D has no effects on behavior, such technology could solve the problem to some extent. …HOWEVER…

If the technology INCREASE frequency of defection, it would not solve the problem.

IF such technology to reduce negative impacts of D has no effects on behavior, such technology could solve the problem to some extent. …HOWEVER…

If the technology INCREASE frequency of defection, it would not solve the problem.

This is likely because the technology…..

1) reduce SENSE OF GUILT and

2) reduce COST to implement D.

（ e;g; Bougherara,2005, Geyskens, K. et al., 2007, Wansink, B et al. 2006)

Unintended effects of reduction of negative impacts of D?

Research QuestionDoes a technology to reduce defector’s negative impacts worsen social dilemmas? if so……What we should do? – in case of ECO car -

Eco car•For solving global environmental SD, the

government provide subsidy to promote ECO car (such as PRIUS or electric vehicle)

…as a consequence…

•Sales only for ECO car increased in Japan in spite of business depression these days.

- 51 samples who bought a 1500 CC class new car in the last 6 month (while replacing an old car).

- The samples were recruited in all over Japan through internet survey.

- 2 wave panel survey. wave 1 = February, 2008 wave 2 = October, 2008- Measurements > weekly vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) [measured by Odometer for a week] > self reported average weekly VKT in case of the previous car. > Do you think your car is “ECO car”? > Do you think that environmental problem would be solved by promotion of “ECO car”?

Survey7

Which car do they buy?• • ECO car perception Fuel economy • No Yes Total Rate (%) [km/L]•

• Honda Fit 1 4 5 80 19.6• Mobilio Spike 3 1 4 25 17.6• Mazda Axela 1 0 1 0 18• Demio 0 2 2 100 20• Verisa 1 0 1 0 18.4• Mitsubishi Colt Plus 0 1 1 100 18.4• Nissan Cube 1 0 1 0 19.4• Note 0 2 2 100 19.4• Tiida 4 0 4 0 19.4• Tiida Latio 0 1 1 100 19.4• Subaru Impreza 5 0 5 0 17.6• Toyota Auris 0 1 1 100 17.6• Carolla Axio 1 3 4 75 18.2• Carolla Rumion 1 0 1 0 16.2• Ist 1 1 2 50 18• Porte 0 1 1 100 16• Premio 1 0 1 0 18• Prius 0 14 14 100 35.5• Ractis 1 0 1 0 18• Raum 1 0 1 0 16.2• Vitz 1 0 1 0 19.5•

• Total 23 31 54 57.4 -•

[more efficient by 45%!] (t=5.28, p<.01)

Fuel economy [km/L]

EC= NO EC = Yes

9

Those who bought ECO car increased their VKT than those who bought non-ECO car. (relatively 1.64 times more)

EC

Non-ECNote : 258.38/171.13 141.75/154.11

1.64=

Wave 1 Wave 2

This increase of VKT leads INCREASE OF CO2 emission (15.7% increase) in spite of high fuel-efficiency of ECO car

ECO car users were split into 2 groups….

Increase in VKT was smaller for those who do NOT believe “ECO car can stop EP” (28% increase 11.6% decrease in CO2) than those DO believe (104% increase 40.8% increase in CO2).

10

ECO car can NOT stop EP.

（ km/week ） ECO car CAN stop EP.

wave1 wave2

Conclusion• Does a technology to reduce defector’s negative

impacts “worsen” social dilemmas? YES! (15.7% increase in CO2 emission due to ECO car owning in spite of high fuel efficiency)• However, if they do not believe “EP would be solved

by promotion of ECO car”, they do NOT increase VKT largely, otherwise, they DO substantially increase.

This implies too much reliance on technology eliminate its utility.

We could appropriately utilize the technology (e.g. ECO car), if and only if we understand the its limitation well.

…therefore…We always need social communication for

people’s well understanding of the technology, in addition to technological development.

People, and…TOYOTA, NISSAN… should understand this!