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UNIVERSITATEA “CONSTANTIN BRÂNCUŞI”

FACULTATEA DE ŞTIINŢE ECONOMICE

SPECIALIZAREA: FINANŢE – BĂNCI

METODE STATISTICE DE ANALIZĂA VÂNZĂRILOR LA SC GORJ

TURISM SA

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49 &%'85 $8 %8 #%8 $%'3568 '38!7%8 %%&7'.5 '7##8.!

%33!

4 77'! $! 7 6' $%75!7 67%'5 %#%78.#% '#!6%.#%

44 %6!#& $' ' ' $%6!#& %6!#& !'&&3.3% !35#.3%

444 &8#3# ' ' ' &8#3# &8#3# !57%&.7 5#6'.'

49 56&&3 ! 7 6' %!8!%3 5387#3 &8583.%# !%#67.5&

%33&

4 '58#% 8 %8 #%8 656'3 &!7383 8&7'#.' !5!8&.'

44 &7767 5 &7 %&3' !&77%! %&&7' #8&%%.&% '8&!!.&%

444 58573 7 6' #8#' #6%''3 #'!6773 55%#7.%% '&57.%%

49 '35!!5 '' '%' '&' ''63535 '%765555 73&8#.8 '#663.8

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n )'0!%9 !%7#$o9%. .+$. %.6%..n$9$# 0%9)'" 'n97'"9 n'-.,!%',o% $%'7.+$%'9,. 9,. -;n#%',o% 9@!+$9$# "! $%.n!, 69%9*o,'"/

34

2002 2003


35/81

D'n97'"9 n'-.,!%',o% $%'7.+$%'9,. 9,. -9,o%'' -;n#%',o% 9@!+$9$# "! $%.n!, 69%9*o,'"

A,0o%'$7!, . .+"o76!n.%. 6. "o76on.n$. !6# 7o.,!, 9'$'-

Anii Trim. y ij Y ij y ij- Y ij S j Y ij +S j

Comp.aleatoare

y ij-(Y ij +S j)

Seriacorectată

y ij- S j

2002

10167 19122.82 !8955.82 !20897.8 !1774.98 11941.98 31064.8

16582 18905.3 !2323.3 !6944.48 11960.82 4621.18 23526.48

28119 20028.26 8090.74 4763.962 24792.22 3326.778 23355.04

" 42157 22491.7 19665.3 23078.27 45569.97 !3412.97 19078.73

2003

9913 26295.62 !16382.6 !20897.8 5397.82 4515.18 30810.8

28364 31440.02 !3076.02 !6944.48 24495.54 3868.46 35308.48

45606 37924.9 7681.1 4763.962 42688.86 2917.138 40842.04

" 78440 45750.26 32689.74 23078.27 68828.53 9611.47 55361.73

2004

17562 54916.1 !37354.1 !20897.8 34018.3 !16456.3 38459.8

49989 65422.42 !15433.4 !6944.48 58477.94 !8488.94 56933.48

75790 77269.22 !1479.22 4763.962 82033.18 !6243.18 71026.04

" 107337 90456.5 16880.5 23078.27 113534.8 !6197.77 84258.73

C9,"!,.,. "! 6%'-'%. ,9 9*9$.%',. +.on'.%. &' ,9 'n'"'' . +.on9,'$9$. n"9!, 7o.,!,!' 9'$'- 69%9*o,'" +. 0#+.+" n $9*.,!, !%7#$o%:

A,0o%'$7!, . "9,"!, 9 9*9$.%',o% +.on'.%.

Trim. A#ateri $a%ă &e tren& pe trim. y ij -Y ij

Anii "

2002 !8955.82 !2323.3 8090.74 19665.3

2003 !16382.6 !3076.02 7681.1 32689.74

2004 !37354.1 !15433.4 !1479.22 16880.5

Total a#ateri ∑ (y ij -Y ij ) !62692.5 !20832.7 14292.62 69235.54

'e&ia a#aterilor ∑ (y ij -Y ij ) !20897.5 !6944.24 4764.207 23078.51

A#ateri (eoniere corectate S j !20897.8 !6944.48 4763.962 23078.27

35


36/81

2882>/38

2=358


37/81

Anii Trim. y ij Y ij y ij / Y ij S j Y ij S j

Comp. aleatoare y ij / Y ij S j

Seriacorectată

y ij / S j

2002

10167 19122.82 0.531668 0.404939 7743.576 1.312959 25107.49

16582 18905.3 0.877109 0.8383818 15849.86 1.046192 19778.58

28119 20028.26 1.403966 1.182517 23683.76 1.187269 23778.94" 42157 22491.7 1.874336 1.574163 35405.6 1.190687 26780.58

2003

9913 26295.62 0.376983 0.404939 10648.12 0.930962 24480.23

28364 31440.02 0.902162 0.8383818 26358.74 1.076076 33831.84

45606 37924.9 1.202534 1.182517 44846.84 1.016928 38566.89

" 78440 45750.26 1.714526 1.574163 72018.37 1.089167 49829.66

2004

17562 54916.1 0.319797 0.404939 22237.67 0.789741 43369.5

49989 65422.42 0.764096 0.8383818 54848.97 0.911394 59625.58

75790 77269.22 0.980856 1.182517 91372.17 0.829465 64092.1

" 107337 90456.5 1.186615 1.574163 142393.3 0.753807 68186.71

22A88AE58

>45A2?E554>E5A8


38/81

Trim.

Anii

A#ateri $a%ă &e tren& pe trim. y ij /Y ij

"

2332 0.531668 0.877109 1.403966 1.874336

2003 0.376983 0.902162 1.202534 1.714526

2004 0.319797 0.764096 0.980856 1.186615

Total a#ateri ∑ (y ij :Y ij ) 1.228448 2.543367 3.587356 4.775477

'e&ia a#aterilor ∑ (y ij :Y ij ) 0.409483 0.8477890 1.195785 1.591826

A#ateri corectate S j 0.404939 0.8383818 1.182517 1.574163

An9,';n 9$.,. +. "on+$9$# "# $%'7.+$%.,. I &' II +!n$ $%'7.+$%. n "9%. n'-.,!, -9,o%'' -;n#%',o% .+$. 79%"9$ . 'n),!.n(.+.on'.%. n.09$'-. $%'7.+$%!, I o-.'n!1+. "., 79' n.)9-o%9*', .$.%7'n;n !n n'-., . o9% 83[ 'n n'-.,!, 7.'! $%'7.+$%'9,'9% n $%'7.+$%.,. II . =[/

T%'7.+$%.,. III &' IV +!n$ $%'7.+$%. )9-o%9*',. .$.%7'n;n "%.&$.%' 9,. n'-.,!,!' -9,o%'' -;n#%',o% . 552 o%' n $%'7.+$%!,III &' . 5>


39/81

:inamica nivelurilor trimestriale ale vânzărilor corectată prin desezonalizare cu

modelul multiplicativ

*/5/ C!9n$')'"9%.9 +.on9,'$#('' "! 7.$o9 7.'',o% 7o*',.

A,0o%'$7!, . .+"o76!n.%. 6. "o76on.n$. !6# 7o.,!, 9'$'-

Anii Trim. y ij

'.'. &in4 term

Y ij y ij- Y ij S j Y ij +S j

Comp.aleatoare

y ij-(Y ij +S j)

Seriacorectată

y ij- S j

2002

10167

24256.25

24192.75

27138.25

31510.00

40580.75

42493.00

47899.25

55445.25

62669.50

! ! !25189.2 ! ! 35356.2

16582 ! ! !6803.36 ! ! 23385.36

28119 24224.5 3894.5 5553.332 29777.83 !1658.83 22565.67

" 42157 25665.5 16491.5 26439.21 52104.71 !9947.71 15717.79

2003

9913 29324.13 !19411.1 !25189.2 4134.925 5778.075 35102.2

28364 36045.38 !7681.38 !6803.36 29242.02 !878.015 35167.36

45606 41536.88 4069.125 5553.332 47090.21 !1484.21 40052.67

" 78440 45196.13 33243.88 26439.21 71635.34 6804.665 52000.79

2004

17562 51672.25 !34110.3 !25189.2 26483.05 !8921.05 42751.2

49989 59057.38 !9068.38 !6803.36 52254.02 !2265.02 56792.36

75790 ! ! 5553.332 ! ! 70236.67

" 107337 ! ! 26439.21 ! ! 80897.79

39

2002 2003


40/81

D'n97'"9 n'-.,!%',o% $%'7.+$%'9,. 9,. -;n#%',o% "o%."$9$# 6%'n .+.on9,'9%. "!7o.,!, 9'$'- M/M/M/

C9,"!,.,. "! 6%'-'%. ,9 9*9$.%',. +.on'.%. &' ,9 'n'"'' . +.on9,'$9$. n"9!, 7o.,!,!' 9'$'- 69%9*o,'" +. 0#+.+" n $9*.,!, !%7#$o%:

A,0o%'$7!, . "9,"!, 9 9*9$.%',o% +.on'.%.

Trim. A#ateri $a%ă &e tren& pe trim. y ij -Y ij

Anii "

2002 ! ! 3894.5 16491.5

2003 !19411.1 !7681.38 4069.125 33243.88

2004 !34110.3 !9068.38 ! !

Total a#ateri ∑ (y ij -Y ij ) !53521.4 !16749.8 7963.625 49735.38

'e&ia a#aterilor ∑ (y ij -Y ij ) !26760.7 !8374.88 3981.813 24867.69

A#ateri (eoniere corectate S j !25189.2 !6803.36 5553.332 26439.21

15>28

Q9*9$.%',o% 90.n/M./ 28A?


41/81

Aloritmul de descompunere pe componente după modelul multiplicativ

In'"'' . +.on9,'$9$. "o.)'"'.n(' &' 9*9$.%',. +.on'.%. +. 0#+.+" n $9*.,!, !%7#$o%:

41

Anii Trim

. y ij

'.'. &in4 term

Y ij y ij / Y ij S j Y ij S j

Comp.aleatoare y ij / Y ij S j

Seriacorectată

y ij / S j

2002

10167

24256.25

24192.75

27138.25

31510.00

40580.75

42493.00

47899.25

55445.25

62669.50

! ! 0.341174 ! ! 29800.04

16582 ! ! 0.822005 ! ! 20172.63

28119 24224.5 1.160767 1.13674 27536.96 1.021137 24736.53

" 42157 25665.5 1.642555 1.70008 43633.4 0.966163 24797.07

2003

9913 29324.13 0.338049 0.341174 10004.63 0.990841 29055.56

28364 36045.38 0.786897 0.822005 29629.48 0.95729 34505.87

45606 41536.88 1.097964 1.13674 47216.63 0.965889 40119.99

" 78440 45196.13 1.735547 1.70008 76837.03 1.020862 46139.01

2004

17562 51672.25 0.339873 0.341174 17629.23 0.996187 51475.2

49989 59057.38 0.846448 0.822005 48545.46 1.029736 60813.5

75790 ! ! 1.13674 ! ! 66673.12

" 107337 ! ! 1.70008 ! ! 63136.44


42/81

Aloritmul de calcul a indicilor de sezonalitate

Trim.

Anii

A#ateri $a%ă &e tren& pe trim. y ij /Y ij

"

2332 ! ! 1*160767 1*642555

2003 0*338049 0*786897 1*097964 1*735547

2004 0*339873 0*846448 ! !

Total a#ateri ∑ (y ij :Y ij ) 0*677922 1*633345 2*258731 3*378102

'e&ia a#aterilor ∑ (y ij :Y ij ) 0*338961 0*816673 1*129366 1*689051

A#ateri corectate S j 0*341174 0*822005 1*13674 1*70008

D'n97'"9 n'-.,!%',o% $%'7.+$%'9,. 9,. -;n#%',o% "o%."$9$# 6%'n .+.on9,'9%. "! 7o.,!,7!,$'6,'"9$'- M/M/M/

CAPITOLUL II: PREZENTARE GENERALĂ A SCGORJ TURISM SA

42

2002 2003


43/81

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n "on'('',. ,.0''.E+$. +'n0!%9 90.n('. . $!%'+7 'n @!.(!, Go%@ "9%. .+$. 9"%.'$9$# IATA

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SC GORJ TURISM SA .+$. +'n0!%9 90.n('. . $!%'+7 'n @!.(!, Go%@ "9%..+$. 9"%.'$9$9 IATA 90.n('. 90%.9$9 &' 9!$o%'9$# +# .('n# &' +# -;n# 'n +$o"

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43


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9,.+ . 7.7*%'' C97.%.' . Co7.%( &' In!+$%'. Go%@ ".no% n "o7'+'9 .".no%'/

So"'.$9$.9 .+$. 6%'79 &' +'n0!%9 )'%79 . $!%'+7 'n @!.$!, Go%@n%.0'+$%9$# ,9 OSIM "! 79%"9 n%.0'+$%9$# &' 9"%.'$9$# ISO 4335 1 S'+$.7!, .

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2/2 P%o)',!, &' o*'."$!, . 9"$'-'$9$.

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44


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2/= C96'$9,!, +o"'9,

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45


46/81

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