DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 341 419 JC 920 075

AUTHOR Slark, Julie; Nguyen, HuongTITLE Preliminary RSCCD Population Trends from the 1990

Census. Research, Planning, Resource DevelopmentReport.

INSTITUTION Rancho Santiago Community Coll., Santa Ana, Calif.PUB DATE Sep 91NOTE 16p.

PUB TYPE Reports - Research/Technical (143) -- StatisticalData (110)

EDRS PRICE MF01/PC01 Plus Posta4e.DESCRTPTORS *Census Figures; College Planning; Community

Colleges; Enrollment; Enrollment Influences;Enr'llment Projections; *Enrollment Trends;*Population Growth; *Pcpulation Trends; ResidentialPatterns; Schorl Demography; Student Characteristics;Trend Analysis; Two Year Colleges

IDENTIFIERS Rancho Santiago Community College District CA

ABSTRACTDrawing from 1990 U.S. Censes data, a study was

conducted of population trends in the Rancho Santiago CommunityCollege (California) District (RSCCD). Study findings included thefollowing: (1) the population of the RSCCD increased by 32% from 1980to 1990, larger than the statewide increase of 26%; (2) the 1990RSCCD population was 482,224 and is projected to be 578,700 by theyear 2000; (3) the city of Santa Ana comprises 61% of the populationof the RSCCD; (4) 72% of the district population is over 18 years ofage, compared with 74% for the state of California, making thedistrict's population younger than that of the state's; (5) 1980 to1990 enrollment trends of the RSCCD parallel those of communitycolleges statewide; (6) Hispanics comprised 48% of the RSCCD in 1990,up from 15% in 1970, and projected to reach 61% in the year 2000,while Hispanic community college enrollment statewide grew from 15%in 1970 to 26% in 1990; (7) the population of Santa Ana is 65%Hispanic, while Orange and Garden Grove are predominantly White; (8)

Garden Grove has th largest percentage of Asians in the RSCCD (20%);(9) the Hispanic Population within the RSCCD has grown by 107% from1980 to 1990, while the White population has declined by 11%; (10)

the percentage of college "eligibles" (individuals over the age of18) is growing for all areas of the state examined, indicating anaging ropulation; and (11) in comparison with their representation inthe district population, Hispanics are underrepresented in RanchoSantiago College's fall 1990 enrollment (22%) and in the fi-oulty(6%). Detailed data tables, charts, and bar graphs are included.(PAA)

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Preliminaty RSCCD Population Trendsfrom the 1990 Census

Julie SlarkHuong NguyenSeptember 1991

-PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THIS

- MATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED BY

J. Slark

TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES

INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)" 2-

U 5 DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONOffice of E chic ahonal ResearcE, and Irnwoverneni

EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATIONCENTER (ERIC)

Eh.s document has been reproduced larecanved from the perSon or organuallonor,g,nahng

AMnor changes have been Made to improvereprOduchon Qualify

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Summary of Preliminary RSCCD Population Trendsfrom the 1990 Census

The population of the Rancho Santiago Community College District increased

32% from 1980 to 1990. This represents a larger increase than for all of

California (26%) and all of Orange County (25%). The 1990 Rancho Santiago

Community College District population was 482,224, and it is projected to be

578,700 in the year 2000. (Graphs 1 and la)

Santa Ma is the largest city in the Rancho Santiago Community College District

with 293,742 people in 1990 and comprising 61% of the population of the Rancho

Santiago Community College District. Orange comprises 23% of the district's

population, Garden Grove 16%, and Villa Park 1%. Not only is Santa Ma

increasing its population at a larger rate than the other cities in the district, it is

increasing its proportion of the population of the district. (Graph 2)

While 72% of the population of Rancho Santiago Community College District is

over 18 years of age, 76% of Orange County's populatir,n and 74% of California's

population is over 18. In other wirds, Rancho Santiago Community College

District's population is "younger" than that of California or of Orange County.

(Graph 3)

The enrollment trends of Rancho Santiago College parallel those of all community

colleges, from 1980 to 1990. (Graph 3a)

. In 1990, Hispanics comprised 48% of the Rancho Santiago Community College

District population, up from 31% in 1980 and 15% in 1970. Thirty-nine percent

of the Rancho Santiago Community College District population is white. By 2000,

it is projected that 61% of the Rancho Santiago Community College District will

be Hispanic.

The increase in the Hispanic population is much more rapid in the Rancho

Santiago Community College District than in the entire state of California, where

the proportion has changed from 15% in 1970 to 26% (compared to Rancho

Santiago Community College District's 48%) in 1990. (Graph 4)

Currently, Orange County is 65% white, and California is 57% white. The Asian

and black populations are relatively small, between 2% and 11% in the district,

county, and state. (Graph 6)

Santa Ana's population is 65% Hispanic, 23% white, and 9% Asian. Orange and

Garden Grove are predominantly white, and Garden Grove has the largest

percentage of Asians in the Rancho Santiago Community College District, 20%.

(Graph 5)

4

Put another way, the size of the Hispanic population within the Rancho Santiago

Community College District has grown 107% from 1980 to 1990, and the white

population has declined 11%. Asian population growth throughout the state has

been greater, 87%, than that for Rancho Santiago Community College District,

60%.

Garden Grove and Orange are growing, 16% and 21% respectively, but not as

great as the rates of growth for the state, the county, all of Rancho Santiago

Community College District, or the other cities in the Rancho Santiago

Community College District. The growth rate for "eligibles" (over 18 years of age)

is growing for all areas studied, indicating an "4ng" population, even though this

is not occurring as rapidly for the Rancho Santiago Community College District.

(Graph 7)

In comparing ethnic distributions, it can be seen in Graph 8 that Hispanics are

under-represented in Rancho Santiago College's Fall 1990 enrollment (22%) and

in our faculty (6%) compared to our service area (48%) and to the high school

enrollments in our service area (53%). In the past several years, Rancho Santiago

College has made progress in increasing the ethnic minority enrollment and

faculty, and those efforts need to be maintained and intensified.

P12:A:poptrnd9/6/91

IIIIIIIIIII

III

I

II

I

I

Graph 1California/Orange County/RSCCD Total Population Projection

380-Population (In thousands),0032 000

26 000

20 000-

3 400

2 800

California

2 20.0-

1 600

Orange County

600

400-

200-

RSCCD

I

1980 1990 2000(est.)

1980 1990PercentChange 2000 (eM.)

California 23,667,900 29,760,021 26% 36,259,000

Orange County 1,932,825 2,410,555 25% 2,877,900

RSCCD 364,313 482,224 32% 578,700

6

Graph laRSCCD Total Population Projection

Popu1

ation

600000

550000

500000

450000

400000

350000

300000

_

_

_

_

364,313

_

578,700(est.)

482,224

RSCCD Total Population

I 1 1

1980 1990 2000

7

1

Graph 2RSCCD Population Projection

By City

400000

360000

320000

68%

61%Percentage of

280000 RSCCD TotalPopulation

240000

567a

200000 Santa Ana

160000

120000 23% 20%

25%

80000Orange

17%157

13%

Garden Grove

40000

Villa Park 2% 1% 1%

00001980 1990 2000

(eat.)

1980% of

District 1990% of

DistrictPercentChange 2000(est.)

Santa Ana 203,713 56% 293,742 61% 44% 381,942

Orange 91,788 25% 110,658 23% 21% 115,740

Garden Grove 61,676 17% 71,525 15% 16% 75,231

Villa Park i 7,137 2% 6,299 1% -12% 5,787

TOTAL-,....11-

1 364,313 - 482,224 - 32% 578,700

II Graph 3

California/Orange County/RSCCD Eligible Adult Population

IIIIIII1

IIIII

of

70%Popu1

ati 65%0n

60%

_

_

California

RSCCD #

Orange County

1 1 1 1

1970 1980 1990 2000(est.)

1970 1980 1990 2000(est.)

California 67% 73% 74% 73%

Orange County 63% 73% 76% 79%

RSCCD 66% 71% 72% 76%

9

IIIIII1

IIIIIIIIII

Graph 3a

California Community College Credit EnrollmentRancho Santiago College Fall Enrollment/1980-90

45,000

40,000

a 35,000SC

Enro 30,0001

1

ment 25,000

20,000

IIIM.I

IIMMI

All Colleges

0II

f

ll fI

1 . .-1%

,,,, RSC Credit &,, ,0I Non-Credit,

..,.4

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

AMY

MR

11.

OM.

1,500,000

1,300,000

1,100,000

900,000

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 .

RSC Credit ---+ All Colleges

-1 RSC Cr & Non-Cr

AII

C0mmuP1

tY

C0IIege

EnroIIment

IIIIIIIII

IIIIIIIII

1

Graph 4California & RSCCD Ethnicity

80%

70%

of

40%

10%

0%

...

...

OWN

-

^

-

_

1

e

"SCCD Hispanics

allfornia Whites

Cal tfornia Hispanics

e1 \

ele ,..

.0/ \e 1011SCCD Whites

oRSCCD Asians

....... so........ alifornia AsiansCalifornia Blacks

4,t

sitscco Blarikst I

1970 1980 1990 2000 (est.) .

I 1970 1980 1990_

2000(el) jCalifornia n=19,877 600 n=23,667,900 n= 29,760,021 ii= 36,259,000

Wh Is 74% 67% 57% 42%Hispanic 15% 19% 26% 34%Asian & other 5% 7% 9% 11%Black 7% 8% 7%

._7% .

RSCCD n=240,000,

n=364,313.

n=482,224 n=568,734

Whlte 76% 58% 39% 23%Hispanic 15% 31% 48% 61%Asian & other 7% 9% 11% 12%Black 2% I 2% 2% 2%

11

Graph 5RSCCD Ethnicity

By City - 1990

200000

50000

0000Whits Slack Indian Asian Other Hispanic

Racial & Ethnic Groups

-

-

23%67,897

4.

Santa Ana

2%6,454

720

9%26,867

421

65%191,383

PoPuI

ati

on

2000C1 r-

150000

100000

50000 55%39,091

Garden Grove

969 305

24%20% 16,78914,269

1020000

Whits Black Indian Asian Othsi hispanic

Racial & Ethnic Groups

200000

150000

_

PoPuI

al00000 -

t 68%75,033

0

50000

1%

1,367

0000 -"".White Slack

Orange

23%25,278

8%8,477

gs 414

Indian Asian Other Hispanic

Racial & Ethnic Groups

'24

1990Total Population

4MIMORMIi.._

Santa Ma 293,742

Orange 110,658

Garden Grove 71,525

OM NM IIII1 OM MI 11. NM UM MI MB MN MO ME MI MO

Graph 6

Ethnic Distributions of California,Orange County, and RSCCD 1990

White Hispanic Asian Black

13 14

Graph 7Percent Change In Population

1980 - 1990Percent Change in Population

by Ethnicity

% Change120%i

100% L

80%

80%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

8%

69

107%

87%

Whila Hispanic Aa:An

Ethnicity

IIII California X 1:18CCD

Black

1980 - 1990Percent Change in Population

Calif.Calif. Elig.

Orange Co.

O.C. Elig.

R8CCO

MCC Eng.Sant& Ana

Orange

Garden Grove

Villa Park

28%

27%

28%

29%

21%

18%

32%

34%

441

-2014-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Change

2 18 yrs of art

15

1.111111,

1

Graph 8A COMPARISON OF ETHNIC DISTRIBUTIONS

1White I Hispanic Asian Black Other

1

RSC Service AreaFall 1990 39% 48% 11% 2% -

RSC EnrollmentFall 1990 55 22 16 3 4

RSC CED EnrollmentFall 1990 18 64 10 1 7

RSCCD High SchoolEnrollmentFall 1990

29 53 15 2 1

RSC Graduates (AA's)89-90 53 11 11

,

2 23

RSC Transfer StudentsFall 1989 49 13 19 4 15

RSC Full-Time FacultyFall 1990 86 6 4 2 2

Non-White Population Percentages50

75

50

45

30

15

0*are. Asea CEO &Hirst H.*. ffiradus!es Transfers

RISC Enrollment

Faculty

1 6

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