ED 392 818

AUTHORTITLE

INSTITUTION

PUB DATENOTEAVAILABLE FROM

PUB TYPE

EDRS PRICEDESCRIPTORS

IDENTIFIERS

ABSTRACT

DOCUMENT RESUME

TM 024 456

Coley, Richard J.Dreams Deferred: High School Dropouts in the UnitedStates. Policy Information Report.Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ. PolicyInformation Center.95

31p.Policy Information Center, Mail Stop 04-R,Educational Testing Service, Rosedale Road,Princeton, NJ 08541-0001 ($9.50).Reports Evaluative/Feasibility (142)

MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage.*Academic Aspiration; Asian Americans; BlackStudents; Dropout Research; *Dropouts; EarlyParenthood; Economic Factors; *EducationalAttainment; High Schools; *High School Students;Hispanic Americans; *Minority Groups; NationalSurveys; Pregnancy; Reentry Students; *Salary WageDifferentials; Urban Schools; Vocational Education*National Education Longitudinal Study 1988

Data on dropout trends over time are combined withdata from the National Education Longitudinal Survey to give apicture of the dropout situation in the United States and theaspirations of students who have dropped out. In 1993, about 381,000students dropped out of high school. In economic terms theconsequences of dropping out can be demonstrated by the fact that, in1992, dropouts earned about $6,000 a year less than those whocompleted high school. By all measures, the percentage of studentsdropping out of high school is declining. Even in large urban schooldist icts, where dropout rates have been highest, they are improving.In 1992-93 the median 4-year dropout rate was 287.. Black and HispanicAmerican students are still somewhat more likely to drop out thanWhites and Asian Americans. Thirty percent of girls who dropped outdid so because of pregnancy. Many dropouts remain optimistic abouttheir prospects. Only 157. of dropouts indicated that they expected toattain less than a high school education in their lifetimes, withabout a fifth planning to attend a vocational or trade school. Onethird planned to attend college. (Contains 20 figures, 5 tables, and10 references.) (SLD)

*Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made

from the original document.************************************************************* c*****

POLICY INFORMATION REPORT

DREAMS DEFERRED:

High School Dropoutsin the United States

gad

U S DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONONce I Etincshonat Reseatte and fno,cnen,ent

EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATIONCENTER iERICI

/112 00Curnenl NIS beer ecoocluced asrece.ned front the person of ofgantrat.onongtnat.no dNI,n0, Changes have oeen made to .rnplo.ersoroduChOn oughly

Po.nts of v.e. O 00,,,Ons stated .n11,5 did u'nerd dO nOt neceswqy represent Miq .3.OE RI pOsotiOn 0, POW' y

.. .

° tAki.

PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE TH SMATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED B'

o

TO ERE FLEW. A c-INAL RE t-tf /URI f-.,P

POLICY INFORMATION CENTEREducational Testing Service

Princeutn, New Jersey 08511-0001

BEST COPY AVAILABLE

This report was writtenby Richard J. Coley of theFTS Policy InformationCenter.

I k'III,1"1

'titititti 1111 'I; ,IIIII1'1,11,11,1 I

i'ttlit ( IIItNi.11i ii I, /4I dill, It ri%

litoNt l(11.1(1

111111.1W11 NI I

-; I Ntot I

( IT\ IVIII I

I, \hI

dui \lifil I till II (11111,111111

II/11 I luquim

tulle It I I IS

mil .11( II I41 -II I I It II

III I till, II1011.11 It -.111114 'II I% It

(;ONTEVI's

Preface

Ackm)wledgments

Itighlights

introduction

Sizing up the Problem: Measuring the Dropout Rate

Annual iligh School Dropout Rate

Dropout Status Rate

I light School Completion Rates

Cohort Dropout Rate

State Dropout Rates

Dropout Rates in the Large Cities

The GED Program

Dropouts from the Class of 199 '

9

Introduction

Backgrc mud

Nhvital Status and Parenthood IC

School and 11ome Stability

The Omtext for Dn)pping Out

flight School Program 18

interventions Attempted 18

Current Activities and Plans 19

Views about the Future 21

School Behaviors

Locus of CA introl and Self-('Aincept

Educational Expectations

Conckisions

References

Preface

Goal 2 of the NationalEducation Goals states:"BY the Year 20(1, thehigh school graduationrate will increase to alleast 90 percent.- Whilethere has been muchprogress in keepingstudents in school untilgra(luation. this po)gresshaS slowed recently. 'Foomany students still dropout of school, and thedropout rates in many ofthe nation's large citiesare alarming. Whilec(mcern about highdropout rates has beenwith us l'or decades, theconsequences for youthand society have gonvn.Wages have bothdeclined in real termsand fallen relative tothose of high schoolgraduates. With lowerearning power, the riskof dependency rises. Inthis report Richard Coleyhas bonight togetherdata on thy trends overtime as well as new damfr(nn the National Educa-tion Longitudinal Surveyto portray the situationtILit the nation and itsyouth face today.

Paul E. BarfimflavourP(dicv (.c)! Icr

2

Acknowledgments

The National Center f(1rEducaticin Statistics(NCES) of the LS.Ikpartment of Educationha. ix:;_n the primarysource of informationand data on high schooldropouts through theirregular publications,longitudinal studies. anddata bases. NCES'songoing eff(irts arecritical to) research in thisarea. \lost of the data inthis report comes fromNUS, At EducationalTesting Service, re\ iewsuf the report wereprovided by Paul Barton.Ruth Ekstomi. -and!toward Wainer. AtNCES. Peggy Quinnreviewed the report.Data analysis was pro-vided hv Karen Brickerat the National DataResource Cenk.r. AlbertBenders(m was theeditor and Carla Cooperprovkled desktop pub-lishing services. RodRuck.k.r designed thecover. Errors of Lict C ')1hiterpretah011 are thOse(f the author.

4

It bat happens to adream cleft:rye&

Doe it elry up like araisin in the sun?...Or does it explode?

Langston IlughesHarlem (1951)

Highlights

According to nationaldata:

In 1993, about 381,000students dropped out ofhigh sch(x)I. Over theirlifetimes. they will earnhundreds of thousandsof dollars less than theirbetter educated peers.

In 1992. dropoutsearned an average ofSI 2.809, about S0.000less than high schoolgraduates.

I lalf the heads ofhouseholds on welfareare dropouts. as are halfof the people in jail.

By all measures, thepercentage of studentsdropping (lut of highsch(x)l is declining. Onsome measures there aredifferences among racialethnic gomps: on othermeasures there are nosignificant differences.

About 3 percent ofthose wh() drcIp (lut doso at or bef()re the fourthgrade. 20 percent dropout al or before theeighth grade, and olpercent drop out ;it orbefore the tenth grade.Neady to percent of thelispanic dropouts have

an eighth grade educa-tion or less.

According to state,city, and othersources:

North Dak(ita has (ht..lowest dropout rateamong the states:Nevada has the highest.

Dropout rates in thelarge. urban districts arehigh, hut generallyimproving. In 1992-93.the median four-veardropout rate amonglarge city school dis-tricts N.V.1, 28 percent:the single Year rate was9 percent.

Each year about.10,000 people gel ahigh school credentialhv passing the Tests ofGeneral EducationalDevekIpment (GED).

According to newdata from theNational EducationLongitudinal Study of1988:

Black and 11ispaniistudents were some-what more likely todrop out than White orAsian students.

I fall the drop( 1uts lett

school before theenth grade.

Almi)st to percent ofthe dropouts either hada child or wen.. expect-ing one. This was the

case k)r 5-4 percent ofthe females and 26percent of the males.only about one-quarterwere married to andliving with the otherparent of their child.Another 18 percentwere living with theparent of their child.

* 30 percent of girlswho dropped out saidthey did so becausethey were pregnant.

Dropouts were morelikely than graduates tohave changed schools.to have moved, and tohave run :tway fromIs mne.

Problems in schoolwere a major reason fordropping out. Balancingwork and sch()ol alsoseemed to play a signifi-cant role.

O Dropcnits experiencedconsiderable difficulty inschi)ol during thesemester before theydropped (mt.

* OnI\ 18 percent of thedo pans passed theirlast year of school.

A large majority ordropout!, were enrolledin the general highscho(1l program.

C )ne- quarter of theduipotits had partici-

pated in an alternativeprogram in school.

percent Of thedropchilts have a GED orhigh school diploma andanother 82 percent planto get one.

Most of the dropouts'jobs are in the laborservice area.

Dropouts are fairlyoptimistic for theirchildren, their perscmalrelationships. theirhealth, and their jobs.They are less optimisticabout their chances forfurther educationalattainment.

Dr(bpouts tend toexhibit an external Iocilof control, i.e.. they feelthat they have littlecontrol over their lives.N1()st seem to have fairlyhigh self-concept.however.

only percent of thedropouts indicated thatthey expected to attainless than a high schooleducation in theirlifetime. About a fifthplanned to attendvocational. trade, orbusiness schocil. andalmi1st :t expectedto :Mend college. with11 percent expecting toattain a degree. Fivepercent t..xpectedohtain a master's degree.

intrudlIctiou

From the beginning ofthe 20th centuix untilabout 19-40, the typicalAmerican adult had aneighth grade education.By 19-10, only () percentof males and 4 percentof females had coni-pleted tOur years ofcollege. During the nexttwo decades. however.things changed dramati-cally.

In the 1940s and19:)0s. more than halfthe Young adults com-pleted high school. andthe median education of2r)-29-vear-olds rose to12.3 years. Although by1900, appro iximatelvpercent Of males. 2SYears old and over. stillhad no more than aneighth grade education.

pereent had com-pleted high school and10 percent had com-pleted fi)lir years ofcollege. The eclucatio maiattainment of womenwas about the same.(...xcept that a smallerproportion of womencompleted college.

During the 1900s.

there was a rise in theeducational level of the1..S. population. parncu-

larly for Black adults.Between 1900 and 19-0,the median years ofschool completed 1)\.Black males. 25 to 29years old. rose from 10.-;to 12.2. Then. during thelast 20 years. the educa-tional attainment ofYoung adults basicallyremained stable. Theaverage educatiomalattainment for the entirepopulation continued torise as the more highlyeducated Youngercohorts replaced olderAmericans who hadfewer educationalopportunities,'

Educatio In. more 'Indmore, has become keyto a productive andsatisfying life. Gone arethe days when a lack ofeducation didn't hurtone's chances for findinggoo s.l. steady w( ,rk.()ppoirtunities arcexpanding for those withhigher level skills andabilities and witheringfor those without suchskills. Yet many of ourciti/ens are not acquiringthe skills or trainingneecled to participate inthis changing workplace.ln 1993. about 381.000

students dropped out ofhigh school. A(cordingto) the Census Bureau.over the course of theirworking lives, theseindividuals will:

earn S212,000 lessthan high schoolgraduates

earn S38.4.000 less thanpersons having somecollege education

4) earn S8I2.000 lessthan college graduates

earn S2..40.4.000 lessthan individuals withprofessional degrees-

And the news getsworse. These estimatesassume that 1992 wagedifferentials lw level ofeducation will remainthe sante in the future.lowe\ yr. those with

moire education havebeen gaining groundfaster, and the differen-tials are widening to thedisadvantage of schooldropouts. Between 19--7,and 1992. earnings:

doubled for highsell( iiil dropoi it s

Ha, 14tic I 14,1,4% 4344, 1'1,44.0 01 tomolo Ii is,ts),,erI \ 1 , 1 / / , / 1 , I , . , / , 4 1 / / 1 I t y ! , , , i n h . , ii, 1 1 I Mi., .1 I d. I, .1' 11.1 AI, I .11I. 11,1 I i1.11114. \

ISInt.1. 11 On 44., "I 01.14 I5l / Pl 1411. //4 0..I i"

64

rose 2.S times fOr highschool graduates

nearly tripled forholders of bachelow'sdegrees

tripled for holders ofadvanced degrees

Figure 1 shows theserelationships on anannual basis. In 1992.

high school dropoutsearned an average salaryof only !12.809. aboutS6.000 less than highschool graduates. Therelationship seen in thisgraph between higherlevels of educatiom andincome is strong.

Drompomts have aprol<mnd impact onsociety. Nearly half ofthe heads of iRmuseholds

wenre failed tofinish high. school. Andhalf of the prisonpopulation in 1992 werehigh set-1(RA dr ip )uts.Dropouts are disom-nected front mainstreamAmerica. with littlechance low a rewardingcareer and a life of self-

*

; Figure 1: Earnings and Education - Average Annual, Earnings for Persons Age 18 and Over,

by Level of Education, 1992

Professional v $74.560AIM"Doctorate

Master's

Bachelor's

Associate's

Some College

High School

Dropout

$40,368

$32,629

$24.398

$19.666

$18.737

$12 809

$54,904

Source: "More Education Means Higher Career Earnings." Bureau ofthe Census Statistical Brief, SB/94-17, August 1994.

This report examinesthe dropout pRiblern inthe United States from anumber of angles. Thehrst section pulls togetherdata that :tttempt toquantify the drop( nitproblem in the i'nitedSLites. The s(..ctionprovides several inclk.a-tors of the problem.offering the readerseventl statisti( s fromwhich to make judg-ments. It provides datafor the nation as a whol(...for indivklual states. and

for the nation's largeurban school districts. Italso provitles data on the(;F.l) program.

The second sectionof the i'lport focuses onthe characteristics of highschool drt >pouts. l'singnew data collected fromthe ..NELS:8-i secondfollmv-up, this sectionfocuses on the differ-enct's hetwectl dr( )1)( tillsand other students,reasons for dropping out,ancl the experiences ofdropouts.

0,4

SIZING UP THEPROBLEM:

MEASURINGTHE DROPOUT

RATE

Of all the measure-ments taken in educa-tion. calculating thedrop mt rate is prob-ably the most problem-atic. Many differentmeasures exist and areempk wed by differentagencies. dependingon a variety of factors.Schc)ols and schooldistricts keep dynamicdata students enroll.leave, graduate. trans-fer. and come back toschool almost daily.Such data offen do notr( )ssess the compara-bility necessary toevaluate and compareschools, districts.states, or even trackthe dropout rate fromYear to year. On theother hand, more staticand standardized dataoften (knit offer theflexibility individualschools need to char-acterize their students.belravior.

Basically, thedropout rate is com-posed of a numerat(w(the number of drop-outs, however defined)and a denominator(the pool from whichthe dropouts origi-nated). The data that

e will be examiningin this report have 3I,miri cc msl-,tcnt

nunterator. Statistic'sgathered by the federalgovernment generallyconsider a dropout assomeone who is notcurrently enrolled inschool and has notobtaed a credential(either a diploma or aGED certificate).Dem)minators. on theother hand. vary. Sincestudents can drop out atany grade and also canreenter school or obtainan alternative credentialat practically any age,there are various alterna-tives in the choice of adenominator. Thus. thereport offers severalchoices of nationaldropout rates. Thevarious measuresreviewed in this sectionof the report will givethe reader a range ofinformation on which tomake a judgment aboutthe severity of thedropout problem in theI'nited States. Figure 2 isa suinmary of the mea-sures presented in tliissection of the report.

ANNUM IIR;111100I DROPOI

It

The annual dropoutmeasure is termed the-event rate- by \C1:s

and represents thepercentage of students.ages IS to who leavegrades 10 to 12 in agiven year. In 1993, therate was -Li percent.representing 381,000students. This figure isup a half point from thelowest rates recorded in

1111 tutimil 1 111,11 ii, ii, IIIsd S, ,ct.t1 .1 di, 1, 1, 11

plump I) l/N h 11 Vol/. PO'I 41114 .i111,11,II II .1111 11111,0qt-11h st 14,1111,1 I."I

8

-

I 990 and 1991. Between

the late 19-70s (when therate was almostpercent) and the early1990s. the dropout ratedeclined by more thanone-third.

Figure 3 shows theannual dropout ratetrend lines fOr all stu-dents, and for Black.flispanic. and Whitestudents. While the 1993rate for White studentswas lower than the ratefor Black and llispanicstudents, and the Blackrate was lower than therate for Ilispanic stu-dents, these differencesare not statisticallysignificant.

The good news fromthis ineasure is that thedrop(mat rate has fallenover the last IO IO I S

years. from more than().S percent in the latePrOs, 1 percent in1991. This declineapplied to both Whitelid likick students: the

trend lint. for Ilkpanic

n 11111 \I.1111%11 \I \itI kI' oli I Ii ill ill,, ..1

Figure 2: Summary of Dropout Statistics Found in Report

Percentage30

Median 4-year dropout rate, large cities

25

20

Highest state dropout rate 15 _Percentage aged 21-22 withouthigh school diploma

Percentage aged 29-30 withouthigh school diploma

Average state dropout rate

10 "-Median annual dropout rate, large cities

Cohort dropout rate

Percentage aged 16-24 with no credential

Lowest state dropout ratePercentage aged 15-24 leaving

5 grades 10-12

0

Notes: See corresponding section of report for data sources and details.Data listed are for the most recent year available.

9

students is inconsistenthut higher than compa-rable rates for White andBlack students. Similarly.the rates tOr both Blackand White males andfemales fell. The rates rowlispanic males and

females show no definitetrend.

DROPOL'T S1%11 .s

RATE

The "dropout statusrate- is the percentage ofpeople, ages 16 to 24,who (10 not have a highschool credential. It iscomposed of dropoutsfrom any grade, regard-less of when theydn)pped out. Thus, thisrate will tend to hehigher than the "event-rate just discussed. In1993 this rate was 11percent. meaning thatabout 3.4 million personsages 16 through 24 werehigh school dropouts.I'his is a decline of abolltfour percentage pointssince 1972.

The "status- dropoutrate tOr Black studentswas higher than the ratetOr White students, andthe rate for l lispanicstudents was higher thanthe rate for Black stu-dents. In 1993, the ratefor Whites was -.9percent, compared to)13.6 percent for Blacksand 2-.5 percent forIlispanics. This large

7

Figure 3: The Annual Dropout Rate - Trends in the Percentage of 15 to 24-Year-Olds LeavingGrades 10 to 12 Each Year (Event Rate)

Percent15

10

5

-A 4% Hispanic

it 0, IA e I I%,,,,, is,'I I

As150 Black s. wit,

000000White ,,,,,, 1",,0%

au 0 vow,,,,,,

0 1111111111111111111111'72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93

Figure 4:The Dropout Status Rate -Trends in the Percentage of 16 to 24-Year-OldsWithout a High School Credential (Status Rate)

Percent

40

35

30

25

. 20

15

10

5

Hispanic

44. °/ /14%

Black

Total

41,00 NS ,White41

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93

Source: McMillen, Marilyn M Kaufman, Phillip, and Whitener, Summer. Dropout Rates in the United States: 1993,U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement, September 1994.

10

Total

disparity between His-panics and others maybe due to language andimmigration. Forexample, in 1989 nearlyone-half of all Hispanicsages 16 through 24 yearswere horn outside the1'nited States, and theirdropout status rate (43percent) was Imre thanthree times the overallrate for that year.

The rate for Blacksdeclined markedly sincethe early 1970s. droppingabout eight percentagepoints from 22.2percent in 1973 to 13.6percent in 1993. This,combined with a slowerdrop for Whites, helpedto narrow the gapbetween Blacks andWhites. In 1993, the ratefor Whites was 7.9percent. compared to13.6 percent for Blacks.The rates for I lispanicsappear to fluctuate fromyear to year, but areconsistently higher thanthe rates for Blacks andWhites.

Data are also avail-able on the educationalattainment of these "statusdropouts- and are shownfor 1993 in Figure S. Ofall dropouts, about 3percent dropped out at orbefore the fourth grade.20 percent drwped ( iut ator before the eighthgrade, and 61 percentdropped out at or before

the tenth grade. Thesedata show that I lispanicstudents who droppedout left school earlierthan other dropouts.Nearly 40 percent ofI I ispanic dr< )pouts hadan eighth grade educa-tion or less.

HIGH SCHOOLCOMPLETION RATES

Another wav to viewthe dropout situation isto examine the propor-tion of a given popula-tion that have completedhigh school or attained a

credential, such as a GEDcertificate, a certificateof completion, or a ceni-ficate of attendance. I lere,we examine the ratesfor two age groups21- and 22-year-olds and29- and 30-year-olds.While there are a fewolder people who areworking to completehigh school, these twognaips provide a reason-able picture of highscho(>1 completion ratesand how these rateshave changed over time.

Figure 6 shows thecompleticm rates for

21- and 22-year-oldsbetween 1972 and 1993.For the whole p0 )pula-tion. the rates graduallyincreased from about 82percent in 1972 to about86 percent in 1993. The1993 completion rate forWhites (nearly 90 per-cent) is higher than therate for Blacks (84 per-cent) and I lispanics (63percent). While there hasbeen considerableimprovement for Blacksover the 22-year period,the movement in thetrend line for I lispanicsis not so pronounced.

Figure 5: Educational Attainment of Dropouts - Distribution of Status Dropouts,Ages 16-24, by Level of Education and Racial/Ethnic Group, October 1993

4th grade or less

Total 03

12

13Hispanic 1116

White

Black

8th grade or less

Total

White

Black 1111111

Hispanic

13

10th grade or less

Total

White

Black

Hispanic

20

39

53

161

58

72

0 20 40 60 80Percentage

Source: McMillen, Marilyn M., Kaufman, Phillip, and Whitener, Summer. Dropout Rates in the UnitedStates: 1993, U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement,September 1994.

It 9

10

Figure 6:Trends in the High School Completion Rate for 21- and 22-Year-Olds

Percent

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

.................................

,,

I'..

\

V.............Total

S's

Black

...."00

White

...

/ X

s , ...........

IWO

e/Hispanic

'72

ill'75

III I i 11(11111'78 '81 '84 '87

iIi I I

'90 '93

Figure 7:Trends in the High School Completion Rate for 29- and 30-Year-Olds

Percent

100

90White ..............

......... .............

,, I

....................80 s ..............Total ,`

70 Black

60

50

,SS5,

/I vI ,Hispanic/

40 F i I I 1 i 111 I I III I 1

'72 '75 '78 81 '84 '87 '90 '93

Source: McMillen, Marilyn M., Kaufman, Phillip. and Whitener, Summer. Dropout Rates in the United States: 1993, U.S.Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improverm.nt, September 1994.

1 2

Contpletion rates fm29- and 30-vear-olds areshown in Figure 7. Thisrate increased fromabout 78 percent in 1972to nearly 87 percent inthe early 1980s, and hasremained relatively stableever since. The rate for131acks increased byabout 10 percentagepoints over the twodecades and was aboutfour percentage pointslower than the rate forWhites in 1993. TheIfispanic completion ratewas only about 55perc:mt in 1993, increas-ing from only about .45percent 20 years earlier.

COHORT DROPOUTRATE

Another way to viewthe dropout problem isto follow the same groupof People (coh( rt) over aperiod of time, takingmeasurements at variouspoints akmg the way.This can be done usingcross-sectional data fromthe Census, as seen inTable 1.

Note the arrows inthe table that identify thecohorts. For exatnple, in197.t 11.6 percent of 16-18-Year-olds were drcip-outs. In 197' these

Table 1: Dropout Rates by Cohorts

Year

1974

197'

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

Age 16-18 Age 19-21 Age 22-2,1

15.3

15.)

15.)

15.7

1-4.3

13.7

16.4

16.3

-*16.0

-15.6

14.1

*15.)

*13.1

Source: McMillen, Marilyn M., Kaufman, Phillip, and Whitener, Summer D. Dropout Rates in the United

States: 1993, U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement,

September 1994.

individuals were 19 to21-vear-okls, an agewhen most would havecompleted high school.The dropout rate for thegroup at this pointincreased to 16.3 per-cent. For the final year ofmeasurement for thiscohort, 1980, this groupWti 22 to 2.1 years old.The drop Alt rate by thenhad declined to 15.2percent, probablybecause many hadcompleted high schoollate or had attained anequivalency certificate.Each cohort is shownseparately in Figure 8.

These time trends showan overall decrease inthe dropout rate for eachsuccessive cohort ofindividuals. This trend isconsistent with what hasbeen seen over the othermeasures viewedpreviously.

STATE DROPOI 'TRATES'

While efforts areongoing to devekTcomparable measures ofthe dropout problemamong the states, we stillhave to rely on Censusdata f(n. any consistent

(11..1.11 dam 1 illy I LIM, I I) 'HI I him an, .111amm, nt I"? l'ers.,11, 25 yea, a fht Ityr

Shit PDX cusu,

13

measurement. Thus, themost recent comparabledata are for 1990 whenthe last census wastaken. The measure isthe percentage of indi-viduals, ages 16 to I 9,who are not enrolled inschool and do not have ahigh school diploma orcredential. The variationon this measure amongthe states can be seen inFigure 9. The U.S. aver-age was 11 percent in1990. North Dakota wasat the top of the list witha dropout rate of onlypercent; Nevada was atthe bottom with a rate of15 percent.

DROPOrr RATES INIARGE cfnEss

The Council of th,Great City Schools hasmade an eff(Irt to trackprogress toward theNational Education Goalsfc)r the nation's ktrgeurl)an districts. In sodoing, it has attempted topr()vide comparable dataon the dropout rates inurban school districts.\\*hi le these effc)rts areon-going. many prohlemsreniain in comparingdropout rates across urlmnschool districts. The largevariations seen acrossdistricts mav he due moreto differing definitions ofdropouts and C.IlcilkItit Illrates than different levdsof actual school leaving.The data provided lid(theref(fre, pivide a fewsummary dropout mea-sures for central cityschools. rather than listingindividual data I( )r theurban districts.

In 1992.-93. the medianannual dropout rate was9 percent. The medianfour-Year dropout ratewits 28 percent.

In 1992-93. I MC I A11 "

161.1r city (11s11.1(.15 113(1

Figure 8: Cohort Dropout Rates - Percentage of Individuals Ages16 to 24 Without a High School Credential, by Cohort

Percent

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

9 -8 -7

1974Cohort /

Age 1421

AG° lb it+

1977CohL,r1

1980 Cohort

1986 Cohort/ \

1983 Cohort

/

/ 1989 Cohort

1992 Cohort

74 '77 '80 83 86 89 92

Note: The 1974 cohort is composed of individuals who were between the ages of 16 and 18 in 1974.between 19 and 21 in 1977. and between 22 and 24 in 1980.Source: McMillen. Marilyn M . Kaufman. Phillip. and Whitener. Summer D. Dropout Rates in theUnited States: 1993. U.S. Department of Education. Office of Educational Research and Improve-ment. September 1994.

lI rur-- ear dmpoutrates greater than 3')percent. Two warsearlier. about one outof three had annualdropout rates thathigh.

90 perdetlt of the citydishiets reported ;Idecline in their four-Year drophill ralehetween 1990-9I andN92-93 and =)3

percent reporteddecline itl their annualdrop( nit rate.

More than -0 percentof the urban districtsreported an increasein their annual drop-out rates among Blackand I lispanic students.

I II I.II I I I I Li I flu 11.1111 i 1 0,, if ft IS `. I i \an. .f I Pit,if; ; 111,h. ,11..1,Rip 41 S.1,11 111hlI I

( .1 I i.ui.i ii,- 11..111 RA, kl 111 !ill, I II k, t ,10 : ri I. lii . ., ,clilt I iii uiuull I I .11.,1 I .111, tio .1111 II,. I "'

12

-. I .1..0,11

1 4

THE GED PROGRAM('

The resls of GeneralEdlleati( inal l)e\elt)p-merit (GEM prcivideindividuals who do notcomplete high schoolwith fin opportunity toearn a high schoolcredential. By takingand passing a series ofIke tests in writing.social studies. scien«..interpreting literature

,

and the arts. and math-ematics. adults candemollstnite that theyha\ e acquired a level oflearning comparable tothat of high scht)olgraduates. Each year,more than S0.(x)0 adultstake the GED Tests andabout tid.wo obtainhigh school credentialsbased on the tests. Aboutone in seven Ingh schooldiplomas issued in the['lifted States each year isbased on the GED Tests.While the droprnit ratesdiscussed al)tive considerGED holders as highscht)ol graduates. adescription of wlu) takethe GED is helpful incompleting the picture ofhigh school (AimpletitSome highlights for 1993:

The highest gradec;ED candidatescompleted befr tieleaving school as. onaerage. Ittth grade

The average age ofGED candidates in theLS. and its territories\vas 26

N A't.' than 1.Cl).(tdd(ii.:1) candidatesplanned further studybe\amnd the highsCh( n if level. repre-senting tiu percent ofall candidates tested.

Figure 9: State Dropgut Rates - Percentage Ages 16 to 19 NotEnrolled in School and without a High School Diploma, 1990

5.0North Dakota

Minnesota 6%

IowaNebraska

Wisconsin 70 .

Wyoming

Hawaii -0Maine

Montana

--80.

South DakotaVermont

ColoradoConnecticut

KansasMassachusetts 100_

New HampshireOhio

PennsylvaniaUtah

DelawareIdaho

Michigan

10°.New JerseyNew York

OklahomaVirginia

AlaskaArkansas

IllinoisIndiana

-0

Maryland-

Missouri

-0

Rhode-0

Island

United 1 1States

WashingtonWest Virginia

MississippiNew Mexico

12%Oregonsouth Carolina

AlabamaKentuckyLouisiana

North Carolina 1 300

TennesseeTexas

ArizonaCalifornia

Florida 14°oGeorgia

15%Nevada

0 5 10Percentage

15

Source: Bureau of Census. Educational Attainment of Persons 25 Years and Over. by State 1990Census. Table ED-90-1.

I.?

DROPOUTSFROM THE

CLASS OF 1992

14

INTRout crioN

The National Edu(a-tion 1.,()ngitudinalStudy of the eighthgrade cohort of 1988(NELS:88), conductedby the National Centerfc)r Education Statis-tics. is a major longitu-dinal effort to providetrend data aboutcritical transitionsexperienced bystudents as they leaveelementary school andpRigress through highschool and intopostsecondary institu-tiOnti Or the workforce.

Follow-up data Oneighth-grade base-yearstudents were col-lected in the Spring of1990 ( w hen thestudents were in tenthgrade) and in theSpring of 1992 ( w he nthe students were intheir final semester ofhigh school). Eachfollow-up also sur-veyed the populaticmof dropouts, allowingresearchers to trackstudents who droppedout of school afier theeighth grade.

These effortscomplement a rangeof research and

studies designed to findout why students dropOut of school. TheNational LongitudinalSurveys of Youth LaborNlarket Experienceconducted from 1979 to1981 and nationalstudies like High Schooland Beymul havepnwided much inf(mna-tion On dropouts. Stud-ies of these data havefound that dropping outis related to students'background, achieve-ment. behavior, andattitudes. In Who DropsOut Ugh School and

bv? I:Outings front aNational Study. theauthors provi(Ie thefollowing summary:

,

II\ ire

.10 (I,

I

ell

e II e ; e, !

el," lel'

oeee,,,

t

Who are the drop-outs from the Class of1992? What are theirbackgrounds? Whatcaused them to dropout? \X"hat were theirscluull experiences?\X'hat are their plans forthe future? What aretheir attitudes and

k.twill 1:11111 It KAI/ dim k ItiIiiIo \I It.hk \ \\ Ii 1)1.1, C hit II...I mod \' IllI mdIng, 11,mi a NMI, ',10, 01\ o'd ' ".1 I r14,001, l'aiierns arid \cs. 1..11, 1, t

1 6

feelings? 'Ihis section ofthe report discussesthese issues and, whenthe data are available(when the same ques-tions were asked of bothgroups of youth), C0111-

pares dropouts with thestudents who persisted inschool and became thegraduating class of 1992.All differences betweendropouts and graduatesand between males andfemales that are dis-cussed in the text arestatistically significant.'

BACKGROI.ND

Almost 9 percent ofstudents who 1)egan theeighth grade in 1988dropped out of school.Like most dropoutstatistics, this rate issubject to several cave-ats. First, scnne studentsmay have dropped outbefore the eighth grade.when NEI,S:88 datacollection began. Sec-ond. as will be seen laterin this se('tion, somepercentage of these"do)pt nits- returned toschool and or obtained aGED certificate. The data

for dropouts that arereported in this sectkmof the report are ft)rstudents who droppedout of schot>1 at somepoint and filled out a"dropout- questionnaire.I lowever, some of these"dropouts- returned toeducation.

Table 2 shows theracial 'ethnic distributkmamong dropouts and theoriginal NELS:88 cohort.One way to determine ifthere were differencesamong the groups in thelikelihood of droppingOut is to compare theraciarethnic distributionof dropouts with thecomposition of membersof their cohorts whograduated from highschool. In doing so, itappears that Ifispanicsand Blacks were some-what more likely thanother groups to drop outof school, but the differ-ences were not large.While Ifispanics andBlacks made up 11 andI-4 percent, respectively.of the Class of 1992. theyrepresented 16 and 18percent, respectively, ofthe dropouts. On the

Table 2: Racial/Ethnic Distribution of Dropoutsand NELS:88 Cohort

Percentageof Dropouts

Percentageof Cohort

White 6001. (8(ki)

Black 18 1,1

1 lispaniC 16 11

American Indian-Alaskan 3 -4

Asian.'Pacific Islander

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

other hand. Asiansrepresented about .4

percent of the Class of1992 and less than 2percent of the dropouts.

Boys and girlsdo)pped out of the Classof 1992 in about equalproportions, and withineach raciaLethnic group,there were very smalldifferences between boysand girls.

MARITAL STATI S NDPARFN111001)

About one-ilf.th ofdropouts were married,divorced, or living in amarriage-like relaticm-ship. Seventy-eight

11,11.1 til ilii wi II,ili ii liii Iii, IT mi. Ili nu hip+. Nu., en I MO dill.. ,1Mil /.,./bor r rilhowiif Pahl III,1 er 1),(1111111. Studi ,./ Mid 11' ,//ei I.o/b4/ I p I "Mp,C1011 natil IA I set

lopipuffidunal 1111,11- mv,', I S I h11.111111,111 ill I di!, .111,1I1 1 /Hit t (i1 I diR m.11 kl.,..11111 311l1

11111,1- Al./111.111. 41( sc., id dic NI 1, h liii ".iti..nal I %ILI 1.11k1

Ally slug .1, I 1111,1111i 11,11 tql1 V. VIC \h. \11.111 12 pc., clut cli 12 pc!, (qui

1.11,11 led .1, idwi iIis1i.u,iui mud .4011% ni 111.111 I pril eIll twil I

percent of the dropoutswere single and nevermarried, 12 percent weremarried, 3 percent weredivorced or separated.and 6 percent were in amarriage-like relation-ship. Females were morelikely than males to bemarried.

Almost t() percent ofdnipouts either had achild or were expectingone the figure ftIrfemales was 5-1 pment,with i6 percent having achild and 8 percentexpecting. Figure 10shows the relationship ofthe dropouts with theother parent of theiryoungest child.

1 7 BEST COPY AVAILABLEIs

SCHOOL AND HOMESTABILITY

Dnipouts were mc )n!likely than the graduatesto have changed schoolsand to have moved since1988. Twentv-nir percentof the dropouts changedschools two or more timessince 1988. compared toonly 9 percent of gradu-ates. The dinerence inmoving is even morestriking. Fifty-four percentof dropouts moved since1988, compared to only 15percent of graduates.Dnip( tuts were aim) morelikely to have run awavfnitll 110111C in the last twoyears. Twelve percent ofdropouts did so, com-pared to 6 percent ofgraduates.

THE CONTEXT FORDROPPING MI'

This section identifiesthe reasons that studentscited kir their decision todrop out of school,describes their satisfactionwith that decision. andindicates the last gradeattended in sch(x)l. Stu-dents drop out of schoolfor a Variety of reasons.!natty of which are com-plex and cumulative. DaleMann pnivides the follow-ing perspecti\

/6

Figure 10: Dropouts with Children - Relationship with Parentof Youngest Child

Married and living together

Living together and not married

Don't see each other

Dating

See each other occasionally

Married and not living together 5

Divorced/legally separated 1

Not alive 1

Source: NIELS:88 Second Follow-up

27

1 T T1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Percentage

1:(111/C('.- 11)(' ittHIh:',;('Ilt 11«'-p1111( I

it CH"; )1'c t'llIC111

In the NELS:88questionnaire,were prompted with avariet rcas(ms fordropping out and askedto indicate whether theredsonts) pertained to

them. Figure I I till( W.'s a

summary from thesedata.

Four of the top sixreasons had to do withschool problems. Manydropouts didn't likeschool, were getting

ior grades. couldn'tkeep up with their

col work. and

I I II, I 11111 I III I I 11, III SI /.11/1,1/1, a/h//...//, I lis \ 11/1. ,h 1, t 1'1, -- 1'0,

s

couldn't get along withtheir teachers. Wcwkingalso seems to phy asignificant role. Twenty-seven percent said theydropped out becausethey gc)t a job. and 20perCent said that theycouldn't work and go toschool at the same time.For many of these youngpeople, working appearsto be necessary. Manyreported that they quitschciol to support or car(...for their families.

The reasons given fordr()pping out are some-what different for malesand females. as seen inFigure 12. Males weremore likely to drop outbecause of school prob-lems, including beingsuspended and expelled.and for reasons having todo with work. Femak.swere more likely to quitschool to have a baby orget married. It is particu-larly striking that nearlyone-third of the femalesquit school because theygot pregnant.

()tiler data collectedfrom the dropouts helpto understand the con-text for dropping out ofschool. We have infOrma-tion on dropouts' satis-faction with their deci-sion to drop out. on thegrade last attended andwhether the studentswere passing in theirschool work, and on thet\ pe of high schoolprogram they pursued.

Figure 11: Reasons for Dropping Out

Didn't like school

Was getting poor grades

Had other problem

Couldn't keep up with school work

Got a job

Couldn't get along with teachers

Felt I didn't belong

Couldn't work and go to school at same time

Became a parent

Had to support my family

Was pregnant

Couldn't get along with other students

Was suspended

Had to care for family

Got married or planned to

Changed schools and didn't like new one

Was expelled

Friends dropped out

Wanted to have a family

Didn't feel safe at school

Wanted to travel

Had drug/alcohol problem

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

0 31

30

27

26

24

20

1715

15*

15

--- 1413

--0 1211

10

--- 9-- 9-- 8

7

5

44

39

I

0 10 20 30 40 5b

Percentage

*30 percent of females

17

Twenty-eight percentof the dr()pouts said thatdropping out of schoolwas a g()od decision forthem. Ten percent didn'tknow. Dr()pouts also didvery poorly in their finalYear of sch()ol. Only 18percent said that theypassed their last year ( fschool. Thl) le 3 shows thelast grade these studentsattended. Ilall of themwere Out of school beforethe eleventh grade. and 19percent left sch(x)1 beforethe tenth grade.

HIGH SCHOOLPROGRAM

Table .4 shows the typeof high school pr()grantthat the dropouts and theirclassmates panicipated in.As can be seen, the vastmajority of dropouts wereenrolled in a general highsch()ol pro)gram. Very fewwere in a college prepara-tory program. Dropoutswere more likely thantheir classmates to havebeen enr()11ed in specialeducation (3 percent) andalternative pn)grams( 5 percent ).

INTERVEsTIONSnTEMETED

Information is alsoavailabk about the inter-ventions that wereattempted IS All bysch()ol perm ninel and lwparents guardianswhen dropouts stopped

18

Figure 12: Reasons for Dropping Out, Males and Females

More likely reasons for males:

Was getting poor grades

Got a job

Couldn't keep up withschool work

Couldn't get alongwith teachers

Couldn't work and go toschool at same time

Was suspended

20

33

35

1 35

26

7

20

25

15

20

16Was expelled III 4

Had drug/alcohol I 8problem -AI 3

More likely reasons for females:

Got pregnant

33

!Males FemZ-1)1;

Became a parent9

Got married or planned to -- 6 18

30

25

46

Wanted to have U 12a family 0 6

I I 1-- I I 10 10 20 30 40 50

Percentage

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

20

Table 3: Dropouts' Last Grade Attended

8th 3"1,

9th 10

10th 30

1 th 33.

12th 1

No grade system

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

Table 4: High School Program, Dropouts andGraduates

GeneralCollege PrepOther

oir

Dropouts

03"0

3)

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

Graduates

goiing to school for thelast time. These resultsare shown in Figure 13.

As can he seen in theFigure, the most fre-quently attemptedintervention by schoolstaff was to try to talkstudents into staying inschool. This wasreported by 39 percentof the dropouts. I low-ever, what this means isthat 6(1 percent of thedropouts answered -no"to the questictnwhether school staff triedto talk them into stayingin schotil. Since thequestion was worded,

. . . the last time youstopped going to school. . .." it is possible thatprevious attempts hadbeen made. In any case,the percentages ofdropouts who reportedinterventions of any typewere quite small. It isnoteworthy that many ofthe dropouts reportedthat they were told theycouldn't c(tme back tosclusA (17 per('ent ) andthat they were expelledor suspen(,ed ( I()percent).

Males were morelikely than feinale.s toreport that:

2 1

Staff offered to sendthem to another school(1(1 vs. 9 percent ).

They were told thatthey could come backif' they folkAyeddiscipline rules (19 vs.9 percent).

They were told theycouldn't come hack.

They were expelled orsuspended.

Parents and guard-ians appear to be moresupportive, at least insome respects. Two-thirds or more of thedropouts indicated that aparent or guardianexpressed dissatisfactionwith the dropouts'decision to leave school,and fnmi a third to a halfoGred to help thedropouts in some way oranother. More than 20percent of the parentsguardians contacted theschool, phoning either aprincipal, a teacher, or acounsekm Patvntsguardians of male drop-outs were nlore likelvthan parents guardiansof females dropouts tocontact school staff ( 28percent vs. 18 percent).

(1:RRENT ES

AN D PI ANS

)n)pouts were askedseveral questions requir-

ing them to recall recentexperiences and to thinkabout the likelihood thatthey will ('ontinue theireducation. Table 5 listsdr()pouts. responses tothe question, "In the pasttwo years, did any of thefollowing things happento your

Nlanv of the droponitshad problems in sch<ml.with almost half havingfailed a course and morethan one-fifth being heldhack a grade in school:About a third looked intofurthering their educa-tion. Few students haveparticipated in the otheractivities. Males weremore likely than femalesto have been in drugrehabilitation, to havebeen held back inschool, and to havefailed a course.

Twenty-four percentof the dropouts reportedthat they had partici-pate(l in an alternativepn)gram. Figure Etshows the types ofservices provided illthese programs.

Forty-one percent ofthe dropouts hadenrolled in a GEDpn)gram since leavinghigh school and 1-tpercent had enrolled in atechnical, vocational, ca.trade sclicicil. Fourpercent had enrolled in acommunity college ortwo-year vocational tradeprogram and $ percent

/9

Figure 13: Actions by School Staff and Parents/GuardiansPrior to Dropping Out of School

Actions by School Staff:Tried into 39to talk me staying

29Offered to help make up missed workOffered help with 28personal problems

Called homeor visited 24Told me I could return if I missed school less ----ID 19

Offered to input me special program 1817Told me I couldn't come back D

Expelled or suspended me 16

Told I if I had GPAme could return good 15

14Told me I could return if I followed rules

Offered special tutoring 4111 13

Offered to send me to other school

Actions by Parents/GuardiansTried to talk me into staying

Told me it was my decision

Told me they were upset

Offered help with personal problems

Offered to send me to other school

Offered to help make up work

Called school counselor

Called principal or teacher

Offered to put me in special program

Told me it was okay to leave

Offered special tutoring

Offered outside counseling

Punished me for leaving

----AD 12

-0 2020

16

-- 1312

32

29

24

23

50

68

66

I

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

20

IllIllIlIllIllI0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Percentage

22

75

Table 5: Dropouts' Recent Experiences

Failed a course in schoolLxioked into alternative schi)ol GEDSaw counselor social workerWas held hack a grade in schoolWent lo family counselingDid work for my religiiMS group\Vent to youth cetaer iiutreach programWas in alcohol rehabilitationFailed a competency test for graduation\Vas in drug rehabilitation

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

15"11

-s

Figure 14: Services Received in AlternativePrograms

Career counseling

Tutoring by teachers

Special instructional 32progr. T1

Individual or group 30

counseling

Job placement help 29

37

.34

Performance incentives

Tutoring by students

Childcare 10

Health care referrals -- g

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

018

28

10 20 30

Percentage

had enrolled in anacademic program in acommunity college or afour-year college oruniversity.

Eight percent of thedropouts reported theyhad earned a GEDcertificate. a high schooldiploma. or equivalent.Another 82 percentreported that theyplanned to get a GED.Females were morelikely than maks toreport they planned toget a GED. Twentypercent of the dropcnitsindicated they werecurrently taking GEDpreparation classes, and'9 percent said theyplanned to enroll in aclass to prepare for theGED or other tests.Finally. 30 percent saidtlwy planned to go hackto school to get a highschool diploma. Subse-quent follow-ups willdetermine the extent towhich these plans werefollowed and expecta-ti(Ins met.

Dn)pouts were alsoasked to indicate thetype of job they currentlyhad (or have had mostrecently) and to identifythe lob they will havewhen they reach the ageot 30. These data areshow n in Figures IS andl(). An obvious problem

40 with kkmtifying the typesof jobs that dropoutsheld when the survey

was conducted is that them(1st frequently citedcategory was -other.-That pr()blein aside. mostof the other respondentswere working in lowerlevel jobs like laborerand service occupatkms.his should come as nosurprise. Nlore surprisingare dropouts. expecta-tions for future employ-ment. As shown inFigure 18. the mc)stfrequently cited jobcateg(wy is "Po)fessional

This category consistsof accl untant. rt!gisterednurse, banker. librarian,writer, actor. socialworker. etc. The rest ofthe responses are spreadover a wide range of jobcategories.

VIEWS ABOUT THEFUTURE

.1*() find out abouthow dropouts view theirftures. respondentswere given a numher ofprompts introduced asfollows: -Think abouthow you see your fture.What are the chancesthat . Figure l--sh( Avs the percentage ofdrop( nits wh() respondedthat the chances of thatparticular event happen-ing were either high or\ cry high, Dropoutswere fairly Ttimistic fortheir children, theirpersonal relationships,their health, and theii

?3 21

Figure 15: Dropouts Current or Most Recent Job

Other

Laborer

Service

Sales 10

Tradesperson 7

Tool/machine operator 7

Office worker 6

Manager 2

FarmerSmall business owner

ProfessionalProtective service

TechnicalHomemaker

MilitaryTeacher

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

1 percent or less

23

2120

5

110 15 20 25

Percentage

Figure 16: Dropouts' Expected Jobs at Age 30

Professional I (accountant, banker...) 14

Other .11TradespersonOffice worker 9

Sell/ice 9

Owner 8

Technical .6Laborer ---9 5

Manager 9 5Operator --9 5

Military 4

Homemaker 3

Professional II (doctor, lawyer...) 3

Protective service 9 3Sales 2

School teacher 2

Not planning to work 1

Farmer. . 1Will be in school <1 --T 1 -1

0 5 10 15 20 25Percentage

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

22

24

Figure 17: Percentage of Dropouts Saying That Chances Are High or VeryHigh That They WiH Have Various Experiences

Your children will havebetter life than you

You will have

76

happy family life

You have friends

72

will good 0 69

You will stay in good health

You will have

67

an enjoyable job

You will be respected

66

in your community

You will have a

58

53

53

52

well paying job

You will ownyour own home

You will have betterlife than your parents

You will be able to 45live wherever you want

You will graduate 35from high school

26You will go to college S

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

25 50 75

Percentage

25

100

jobs, TheV were 1eS5optimistic about theirchances f(w furthereducational :ittaininent.About half thought thatchances were high thatthey would have a hetterlife than their parents.

SCHOOL BEHAVIORS

Both dropouts andgraduates were asked theextent to which they hadengaged in certainnegative behavh)rs inscluxil or had experi-enced various penaltiesfor their behavior in themost recent semesterthey were in Sl hoot. Theresults. shown in Figure18. indicate that thedrop(mts experiencedmuch difficult\ in scluiolin the semester hel(wethey dmpped ()lit, hod)in absolute terms and inconlparison with thestudents who persisted inschool. Keep in mindthat these hehaviorspenalties occurred withinone semester of school.

Almost half thedropouts missed in daysor more of sch()(il, andalumt a third cut class I()tittles or more. Approxi-nmtelv a third were puton hi-school suspension.suspended, or put (inpn )bati( )n

exhibited these belia\ 1 rs

duce times more oftentlhin graduates. Elevenpercent of the dropouts

23

had been arrested :luringthe semester. and 8percent spent time in ajuvenile h ulle or shelterMales were more likelythan females to experi-ence these behaviciraldifficulties.

10(.1-S ()I- ( ON FRO1k ND till

Survey data provideinformation on bothlocus of control and self-concept. IA KIN of controlhas to do with theamount of controlpeople think they haveover their lives and hasbeen shown to relate toeducational achievement.Individuals with externallocus of control tend torely on outskle forces in

I. lives ;ind feel thatthey have little controlover what happens tothem. Students withinternal locus of controltend to believe they havecontrol Ove their.lives.

Figure 19 showsthese data. Nlany of thedr(Touts respi wided tothe locus of control itemsin ways that indicate anexternal locus. i.e.. theyfell that diin't ha\ econtrol ovt.T their lives,that chance luck areimponant. or that some-thing alwavs seems toqop them w hen they trto get In addition,they were generallytin Ire likely to express anexternal lo( us than were

24

Figure 18: Frequency of School Behavior Problen,s During the LastSemest,ar Dropouts and Graduates

Missed day of school10 times or more 14

Was put onin-school suspension 0 io

II 33

Cut class 10 timesor more 57

Was suspended orput on probation 7

Was late for school10 times or more 13

Got in trouble for not followingrules 10 times or more 3

11Was arrested at least once 0 3

Spent time in juvenilehome or shelter .1

6Was tranferred to another 111

school for disciplinary reasons

Source NELS.88 Second Follow-up

8

13

III 30

III 29

III 25

48

Dropouts III Graduates 111

0 10 20 30

'ercentage

2 6

40 50

Fi!jure Measures of Locus of Control and Sell-Concept, Di °poutsand Graduates

Locus of Control:When I try to get ahead

something stops me 2343

Chance and luck are 40

very important in life 26

Don't have control over my life I 22

Plans hardly ever work out --ID 20Good luck more important

than hard work --11 11

When I make plans Ican make them work

Self-Concept:

I feel good about myself

19

35

34

77

83

92

94

O 90

1 93

93

94

80

88

I am a person of worth

I'm able to do thingsas well as others

I'm satisfied with myself

I feel useless at times44

33

At times I think I'm I 33no good at all I 31

I don't have muchto be proud of 15

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

22Dropouts I Graduates I

25 50 75Percentage

2 7

1100

the graduates. On theself-concept measures,there is less of a differ-ence. Generally, mostdropouts felt good aboutthemselves, although .1.1pecent indicated thatthey felt useless at times(compared to 33 percentof graduates), a thirdthought that they wereno goo(l at all at times,and about a fifth felt thatthey don't have much tobe proud of.

1.1)1 ( "-kJ

\11.( I.\ [Iwo

Only 1 5 percent ofthe dropouts indicatedthat thev expected toattain less than a highscho()I educatk)n whenasked how far theythought they'd get inschool. These data aredisplayed in Figure 20.NIany of the dropoutsexpected to completeacklitkmal educatkm.About a fifth planned toattend vocational. trade,or business school, andalmost a third expectedto attend college, with 1 I

percent expecting toattain a degree. Fivepercent expected toobtain a master's degree.As would be expected,dropouts' educationalexpectations v ere muchmore modest than thoseof their peers whograduate fr(nn Inghschool.

25

CONCH 'SION

The plight of the highschool dropout is not ane\ concern to educationpolicvmakers in thiscountry. The concern hasbeen greau..st in thenation's inner cities whereeducational inequalitiesand high dropout rates led_fames Omani to call thesituation -social dynamite-in his 1%1 book, Shimsand Suburbs. Prc >grains tostop students fnml drop-ping out of school and tore-educate those who doare probably among themost ubiquitous in educa-tion. Yet the problemcontint .P>o nianvstudents still drop out ofschool, and many of thosewho eventually get a highschool credential do sooutside of traditional highschools (although this iscertainly a lot better thanthe alternative). Each yearalmost half a million!leo* obtain a highscluml credential throughthe GED program.

While the line graphs1()r m()st measures ofdropping out of highschool have been slantingdownwards over the lasttwo decades, we haveseen little progress inrecent years. The nationhas considerable workahead to meet Goal 2 ofour National EducationGoals. that by the year2000 the high school

26

Figure 20: Dropouts Educational Expectations

High School:Less than high school 15

High school only

Vocational, Trade, or Business School after High School:

Less than two years

Two or more years

Degree

6

College Program:Less than two years ---- 6

Two or more years

College degree

Graduate or Professional School:Master's degree 5

Ph.D., M.D., Professional 1

Don't know

Source: NELS:88 Second Follow-up

graduation rate will heat least ()() percent.flight dropout ratesfrom our large ud)anhigh schools c(witinueto be particularlydisturbing. Our coun-try can no longerafford to waste thepotential contributionof these individuals tosociety, nor can it

8

12

11

11

1 1

0 5 10

22

1

15 20 25Percentage

AT( ird to pav for thedependencies that a restflnlgly associated withdropping out of school.

The reasons fordn lying out of schoolappear to be complexand cumulative. A varietyof school problems andconnections betweenschool anti work werecited. and pregnancy was

28

a major factor in girls'decisions to tiny out ofsch()ol. And few of thesegirls were married to orliving with the otherparent (if their child.I )nyouts encounteredmany difficulties illscho 1ol. tending tochange schools morefrequently than otherstudents, and to run

1M :IV from home. Asignificant proportion ofdropouts clashe(I withschool authorities whitestill enn)lled andreported that they wereexpelled from schciol.rather than voluntarilyseparated.

\lost of the dropoutswho have l'()tind employ-ment are working in thelabor and service :treas.It this early stage oftheir lives they appear tohe upheat in their out-looks. however. Nk)stplan to obtain a GED orhigh school dipl( Ima. andmany 1)1:111 to go on tocollege. They arc fairlyoptimistic. about thefutures of their chiklren .

their pers(mal relation-ships. their health, and

their future lobs. V'hilethey tend to express anexternal k)cus of contkil.most have pcisitive self-concept.

Only time will tellthe rest of the story. Thestatistks on their prede-cessors. however, givelittle hasis for optitnismfor large numbers ofthem. DR )IR mts havebecome damaged at acritk.al point in theirlives: separated from anenvironment that wasProbably their hest hopekir a producti\ e andrewarding life. AsLangston Hughes hasasked: What will happento their dreams deferred?Will they dry up likeraisins in the sun? )1-

will they explode?

27

REFERI

28

Baldwin, Janet. WhoThok the GED? GED199,i Statistical Report.American Council onEducation. Center forAdult Learning andEducational Creden-tials. 1994.

Bureau of the Census,Educational Attain-ment Of Persons 25}ears and 01.er, byState: 1990 Census.Table ED-90-1.

Bureau of the CensusStatistical Brief. MoreEthication MeansHigher Oireer Earn-ings. SB,94-17, August1994.

Council of the GreatCity SchoolsVatimall'rban EducatimiGoals: 1992-93 hull-cators Report. Septem-ber 1994.

Ekstrom, Ruth B..Goertz, Margaret F.Pollack..ludith M., andRock, Donald A. "WhoDrops Out of Schooland WhY Findingsfrom a NationalStudy," in GatyNatriello (ed.). SchoolDropouts: Patternsand NewN'ork: Teachers CollegePress, 1987.

Ingels. Steven.). andothers. Second lid/mu-ll): Student Compo-

nent Data File 1Ser's.11anual. NationalMucation LongitudinalStudy of 1988,1.5.Department of Educa-tion, Office of Educa-tional Research andImprovement. October1994.

!ngels, Steven J. andothers. Second lidlow-lp: Dropout CompmentData File Ilser's Manual.National EducationLongitudinal Study cd1988, U.S. Departmentof Education, Office ofEducatkmal Researchand Improvement.October 1994.

Mann. Dale. "Can We11(..lp Dropouts.- inSchool Onipouts: Pat-terns and Policies, Gai-yNatriello, ed., New York:Teachers College Press.1987.

McMillen. Nlarilyn NI.,Kaufman. Phillip. andWhitener, Summer D.Dropout Rates in the(*ailed States: 1993, 1.5.Department of Educa-tion. Office of Educa-tional Research andImprovement, Septem-ber 1994.

National Center forEducation Statistics, 120}.ears gfAmericanEthication: A Stati.qicalPortrait. l'.S. Depart-ment of Educatkm.

30

OERI. January 199,. p.9.National '-''iticationGoals Panel, Data101untefhr the NatimialEducation Goals Report.Volume Ow: AatimutlData, 1994).

:

31

04202-12584 S55P8 204886 Printed In U.S.A.

-