Doctors and Scientists for Sustainability and Social Justice (D3SJ)

09 June 2010

Wally Wight

Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)

Peak Oil Discoverer

M. King Hubbert 1903-1989 Shell Oil Geologist / Petroleum

Scientist

Highly qualified

Intellectually courageous

In 1954 he predicted that U.S. oil

would peak about 1970

Universally criticised at the time

After 1970 he became highly

respected

In 1984 Hubbert predicted world peak

oil in the early 2000s

Mid point

2nd half

Top of the curve

1st half

PEAK OIL: When you plot the production of an aggregate of

oil fields over time you get roughly a bell curve

USA Oil Peaked in 1970http://www.oilcrisis.com/de/lecture.html

The Peak Oil Phenomena

The Globe is at (or near) the peak of the “Hubbard Curve”

Depends on the fraction of oil in the definition

It’s all downhill from here!

Risks of Unconventional Oil

Actual 1999 BP advertisement

When is (or was) Peak Oil?

Global discovery peaked in 1964

Global production peak 2005 - 2015

(Depends on the kind of oil. The exact date is less important - the fact is that it is real!)

USA production peaked in 1971

Canada peaked in 1973

Australia peaked in 2000

Turner Valley Oilfield, Alberta (scene of my childhood), peaked in 1940

Case Study: Turner Where?

Turner Valley Oil-field, Alberta, Canada

Area of 30x3 km

50km SW of Calgary

Foothills of the majestic Rockies

Between Sheep Creek and the Highwood River

Early History Area was settled in 1850’s (64 ha. “quarters”)

Ranching, later agriculture, displaced the Stoney first nation tribe, sending them to live on reservations beyond arable land.

Black Diamond town named for coal (Alberta produced 4 million tonnes of coal per annum by 1913)

Wally brought up on N half, S31, T18, R2, West of the 5th. (no county or parish references in this grid survey).

Oil Exploration

First Alberta oil was found elsewhere in 1908

Crude geology,

Okotoks rancher noticed oil seepage 1913

Crude cable-driven “hammer” rigs,

Crews initially part-time farmers.

Dingman No. 1 14 May 1914 (a year

before Gallipoli)

Natural gas at 800 metres depth

400 000 cu M / day

Within 24 hours, promoters had formed more than 500 oil companies!

Further Development By 1921, there were 51 wells.

The change to rotary drilling in the late 20’s allowed much faster drilling and deeper wells.

Ultimately there are in excess of 500 wells.

Depths range to over 3km.

Typical well might produce 2 million cu M of “wet” gas and 600 barrels of “naptha” (unrefined well-head gasoline) per day.

Reaching a PeakUp to the late 30’s and early 40’s, Turner Valley

was the most productive field in the British Empire:

20 million Cu M gas per day was enough to satisfy New York City’s needs.

Oil production 25 000 barrels per day

Peak was reached circa 1940.

Use and Abuse: “Hell’s half-acre”

Gas had no market and “excess” was simply burned off in massive flares.

Naptha sold for 2c/litre to those that didn’t have a “tame” tap.

Community developmentA string of villages

mushroomed:

Naptha

Glen Mede (my first school)

Hartell

Little Chicago (Royalties) population 1350

Little New York (Longview)

Changing TechnologiesAfter the peak: Low gas pressure

meant pumps were required from 50’s

Drillers went to other fields in 50’s

Depleted oil levels lead to water injection from 60’s.

Automation reduced labour demand.

Community Undevelopment

Closure of schools

Relocation of amenities and services

“rural renewal” of townships Naptha

Glen Mede

Hartell

Royalties

Lessons learned Oil depletion is real,

it is already happening.

Wastage and excesses make the impacts worse.

70 years on, there is still oil to be had, but it is progressively less efficient and more expensive to extract.

We need to recognise what is happening.

We need to curb our wastage and excess early to minimise the impact.

We need to prepare and respond to the end of cheap oil.

Conventional

oil only

Current world total production is about 87.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of which around 72

mbpd is “conventional” – the rest includes tarsand oil, deep offshore, coal-based and gas-based

synthetic oil, the biofuels, and other sources.

Confusion in projection models

Future Projections

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Pro

du

cti

on

[M

b/d

]

Currently producing fields Fields yet to be developedFields yet to be found Additional EORNon-conventional Natural gas liquids

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Pro

du

cti

on

[M

b/d

]

Currently producing fields Fields yet to be developedFields yet to be found Additional EORNon-conventional Natural gas liquids

2008 2008

Different World oil production forecasts (million barrels/day)

using the same reserve data

IEA 106 Mb/day

IEA

Uppsala 75 Mb/day

Uppsala

}41%

2008 2008 20202020 20302030

IEA world oil forecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Pro

du

cti

on

[M

b/d

]

Currently producing fields Fields yet to be developed Fields yet to be found

Additional EOR Non-conventional Natural gas liquids

The Demand Challenge Western economies

are highly dependent on oil and on growth

Australia is among the most dependent

Industrialisation and motorisation of India and China further feeds demand

Exponential growth in demand is unsustainable

On trend, we are in trouble both locally and globally!

Supply/Demand Conundrum.While demand is

increasing,

production is

decreasing.

The red portion

represents demand

shortfall.

Result, either:

Oil prices go

through the roof, or

We experience

demand destruction

DOCUMENTARY

"THE END OF

SUBURBIA"

SHOWING IN

OTTAWA

Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004

Likely Oil Depletion “Events”Sudden critical supply interruption

Sharp price rises

Unavailability of supply (queueing, rationing)

Intermittent supply constraints

Volatile price fluctuations (exemplified by our

experience of the last couple of years), and/or

Sharp volatility of demand (ditto)

Progressive supply constraints

global increase in demand competition

Increased retention of reserves by exporters, and

associated price rises

Post-peak, how will we access

goods and services?

Peak Oil and Economic Effects

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/24/161535/296#comments

Oil descent protocol Demand reduction by

>2.6 % / annum (the 2006 oil depletion protocol “descent budget”) will converge with supply.

Simple, but are we prepared?

The later we start, the sharper the decline we need to match.

Oil fuels more than our cars

Freight transport (highway, light transport)

Busses (and trains beyond the electrified

lines)

Aircraft

Industrial process energy

Primary production (Agriculture, Mining,

Timber, Fishing, etc.)

Think about the food you had for lunch

(production, processing, packaging, food

miles, preparation).

And oil is not just energy

Lubricants

Bitumen

Plastics, paints and other manufacturing

inputs

Fertilisers, pesticides and other agricultural

inputs

Pharmaceuticals

Cosmetics

Is there anything in our lives not dependent

on petroleum?

Energy Phase Transitions

Wood, which was replaced by

Coal, in the 1800s, which was replaced by

Oil, in the 1900s, which must be replaced by a renewable energy source…

_________ ? in the 2000s (?) Solar?

Wind?

Geothermal?

Tidal?

Nuclear Fusion (hot or cold)? (Current nuclear fission is finite and non-renewable)

Hydrogen is a “carrier” rather than a source

Energy Phase Transitions

• Demand for wood and coal could be met as and when they were needed.

Each previous “energy phase transition”wood > coal > oil

was to a more dense energy source.

PROBLEMS WE FACE NOW

• Demand for oil will rise inexorably, as production inexorably decreases.

• Demand cannot be met.

• Energy Density: All clean, renewable energy sources are far less dense

So where are we at?“The world has never confronted a problem like this, and the failure to act on a timely basis could have debilitating impacts on the world economy.

“Risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures well prior to peaking.”

Dr. Robert Hirsch, U.S. Department of Energy (2005)

Source: http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf

The impacts are not uniform

Those most vulnerable

to oil depletion are

also most vulnerable

to other stresses

The Griffith University

VAMPIRE index shows

those remote from

public transport are

vulnerable to mortgage

stress as well as to oil.

When do we have to act?If a crash program to reduce use or switch from

oil to renewable energy begins:

20 years before Peak Oil: Possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for

the forecast period.

Slight economic disruptions.

10 years before Peak Oil: Liquid fuels shortfall for roughly a decade after the

time that oil would have peaked.

Moderate economic disruptions.

0 years before Peak Oil: Significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two

decades.

Severe economic disruptions.

Worst case future scenarios:

Economic recessions?

A return of the Great Depression?

Maybe even a “Malthusian catastrophe”

(e.g., population die-off)?

There is hope:

Renewable energy is availableSolar concentrators can

be used for:

Electrical Power Generation, Hydrogen Production

100 square mile area could provide all electrical needs of USA

Another 100 sq miles could provide all of USA transportation energy

From: http://www.shec-labs.com/products.php

A Solar Concentrator:

Australia is well-positioned Gas as a temporary

transition

More sunlight than most continents

Huge geothermal resources

Some locations with reliable wind

Surrounded by ocean for tidal and wave energy.

Enough political will?

Finally, statutory supportTowards Q2 2020 Target: Cut

by one-third Queenslanders’

carbon footprint with reduced

car and electricity use

Qld Government has adopted an oil vulnerability report and is preparing a Vulnerability Strategy

FNQ and SEQ Regional Plans requires oil vulnerability to be addressed

…and professional interest

ASPO has long supported initiatives to raise

awareness (eg. locally-produced movie

“Australia Pumping Empty”)

The Planning Institute of Australia has

dedicated its December 2010 Australian Planner

issue to peak oil and plans to compile a book of

the findings.

The Environmental Engineers are planning a

sustainability conference next year on a

sustainability theme,

So the issue is gaining credence and traction…

Let’s get back to basics “Cities are an invention

to maximise exchanges

and minimise travel”

Not “an invention to

keep the cars moving”

We need to re-invent

ways to maximise

exchanges in more

energy-efficient ways

We need to connect

locally – both socially

and economically

Goods and services can be

delivered more locally Integration of land use to minimise transport

(compact, accessible and permeable mixed-use

centres to live, work and play with minimum

travel

Use public transport, walk and cycle

Buy local – reduce commodity kilometres

Substitute oil-dependent products in favour of

renewables

Get used to living with less – human exchange is

more important than commodity exchange.

Transition TownsMovement started in the UK to help

communities become more sustainable in

response to climate change and peak oil

Focus on community capacity

Focus on localisation of goods and services,

from food to local enterprise

Growing movement in South East Queensland

What can we do to facilitate the needed

transition?

Assessing vulnerability Identify the vulnerable elements of our locality/city/region

Natural resources and ecosystem services

Social relationships and dynamics

Economic sectors

Built environment and patterns of land use

Infrastructure and services

For each element, identify the processes involved People movement

Raw material and/or goods movement

Manufacture, process, assembly or service

For each process, identify the petroleum component

Calculate the value and impact of the petroleum component

Identify potential alternative resources or alternative processes

Does this look like a useful mechanism?

Bringing it home

How vulnerable is your lifestyle?

What elements are oil dependent?

Construction, operation and maintenance of your home and workplace, the fittings and furnishings

Getting to your point(s) of social and economic exchange

The tools we use (manufacture, delivery, operation)

The things we acquire (appliances, clothing, décor)

The things we consume (paper, food, water, etc)

The services we rely on (utilities, medical, etc)

What can we each change to be less vulnerable?

Crossing the generationsOur generation and those before us (however

unwittingly) have a lot to answer for…

We were supposed to hand over a better world than

the one we inherited…

But we’ve put more pressure on the environment

and on resources than ever before…

And built an economic system based on

accelerating consumption (using up half the oil)…

How can we now help the next generation to do a

better job than we did?

Thank youWally Wight

ASPO Brisbane

www.aspo_australia.org.au

Enoggera Transition

www.transitionbrisbane.org

0417 741 377

wwight@gil.com.au