diwali pick 2016mhfs.in/form/others/mf performance/2016/oct16/product... · 2018-03-09 · happy...

Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.1st Floor, Nahar Singh Industrial Building, Opp Movie Star Cinema,

Ram Mandir Road, Goregaon (W), Mumbai - 400104. : 773 803 2704. : [email protected]

A market correc�on is always around the corner following every mega run up, but that’s precisely what presents a great buying opportunity. Predic�ng an outright global ruin is invariably impossible but we may yet be in for a lot more trials by global Central Bankers before they acknowledge and arrest the excesses they have themselves created. As of now, the ECB and BOJ have con�nued with their easy monetary policies. The US Fed is yet again contempla�ng raising rates but their next move is anybody's guess. For all we know, they may be compelled to reverse their posi�on a�er 12-15 months. In any case, the Fed’s next rate hike, whether in December or early next year, is largely discounted in the current stock prices. Just like the previous hike, the next one may provoke a knee jerk reac�on post announcement. Di�o for the outcome of the US elec�on. Clinton or Trump, the market reac�on (posi�ve or nega�ve) will be necessarily short-lived.

With half of the developed world’s sovereign bond yields at below 1% (1/3rd bonds trade at nega�ve yields), the global cost of capital has touched historic lows. In an environment where posi�ve return is hard to come by, growth markets like India will command a premium valua�on. Likewise for the domes�c investor, India’s Fixed Income yields have come off significantly, not offering sizeable return anymore. Alternate investments like Property is fraught with risks of inventory pile-up and trust issues. Clearly, Equi�es offer a be�er alterna�ve. Indian equi�es (Ni�y) presently trade at around 17x FY18 EPS and the market will soon start factoring in FY19 es�mates as well.

Given the uncertain �mes we live in and the abysmal state of affairs in many regions across the globe, a moderate or conserva�ve investor may be jus�fied in reducing alloca�on to equity or in buying protec�on in the form of Dynamic Balanced Fund or Hybrid Conserva�ve Debt Fund or Gold. However, the case for bo�om-up inves�ng in equi�es yet remains strong. Even if assumed that the Ni�y were to deliver modest returns over the next one year, many broader market stock proposi�ons would s�ll do well. On the eve of the fes�ve season, we have handpicked nine of them.

Happy

Diwali

Happy

Diwali

Samvat 2073 – Heading towards New Highs

FIXED DEPOSIT | MUTUAL FUND | STOCKS | COMMODITY | INSURANCE | BONDS | IPO

DIWALI�PICK�2016DIWALI�PICK�2016DIWALI�PICK�2016



IDFC Classic FundNAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 36.8293

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

14.8036

344

9-Aug-05

Anoop Bhaskar

12.32%

19.28%

17.97%

14.57%

S&P BSE 200

DSP BlackRock Opportuni�es Fund

NAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 28.555

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

180.852

1,171

16-May-00

Rohit Singhania

19.24%

20.86%

25.09%

18.00%

Ni�y 500

ICICI Pruden�al TOP 100 Fund

NAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 18.13

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

270.78

1,449

9-Jul-98

Sankaran Naren

19.74%

16.19%

18.46%

16.50%

Ni� 50

Franklin India Taxshield Fund

NAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 44.9895

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

474.7443

2,391

10-Apr-99

R Janakiraman

24.59%

9.86%

25.23%

18.15%

Ni�y 500

MOSt Focused Long Term Fund

NAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 13.6512

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

13.6512

194

15-Jan-15

Gautam Sinha Roy

19.13%

20.54%

-

-

Ni�y 500

IDFC Tax Advantage Fund

NAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 15.5942

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

43.2561

475

26-Dec-08

Daylynn Gerard Paul Pinto

20.55%

12.03%

23.09%

18.22%

S&P BSE 200

HDFC Equity Fund

NAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 53.462

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

517.928

15,857

1-Jan-95

Prashant Jain

19.82%

11.19%

23.07%

15.77%

Ni� 500

Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund

NAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 12.584

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

12.584

113

18-Dec-15

Neelesh Surana

25.84%

-

-

-

S&P BSE 200

Mirae Asset India Opportuni�es Fund

NAV

Other Details

Returns (%)

Dividend 17.737

Growth

AUM (Rs in crore)

Launch Date

Fund Manager

Since Launch

1Year

3Years

5Years

Bench Mark

37.702

2,291

4-Apr-08

Neelesh Surana

16.76%

13.82%

25.61%

19.66%

S&P BSE 200

DIWALI�PICK�2016DIWALI�PICK�2016DIWALI�PICK�2016

• Nega�ve yields reflec�ng weak global growth/infla�on outlook

• Developed country central banks struggling to get trac�on on monetary policy

Risks: Global instability

Date

Switzerland

Germany

Japan

France

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

US

6M

-0.65

-0.62

-0.32

-0.58

-0.28

-0.28

0.14

0.50

1Y

-0.99

-0.61

-0.24

-0.58

-0.24

-0.22

0.12

0.56

3Y

-0.96

-0.65

-0.18

-0.56

-0.01

-0.06

0.12

0.90

5Y

-0.84

-0.51

-0.15

-0.39

0.26

0.16

0.24

1.19

10Y

-0.50

-0.05

-0.01

0.25

1.16

1.03

0.76

1.61

30Y

-0.05

0.54

0.49

1.02

2.23

2.16

1.38

2.32



Post Global recession

(2010)

Taper crisis (2013)

Current (Sep-16)

GDP*

CPI Infla�on

FX Reserves ($bn)

Fiscal deficit Target

Crude Oil (per barrel)

Current Account Deficit

8.5%

9.4%

297.3

-3.3%

-6.5%

$94

5.1%

9.5%

275.5

-4.7%

-4.8%

$116

7.1%

5.1%

370.8

0.1%

-3.5%

$48

India's macro condi�ons vastly improved

Key Government Scheme

Key objec�ves/Achievement Progress To boost manufacturing, reduce imports

Net FDI to India up by 67% over FY14 to FY16

Raise India's compe��veness at global level

Global rank improved four spots YoY to 130; Target 50

To i m p r o v e fi n a n c i a l a c c e s s , coverage

E ffi c i e n t d e l i v e r y o f g o v t . subsidies/benefits

2 4 1 m n o - f r i l l s b a n k a c co u nt s opened since Aug-15

To create broadband infrastructure at village level

Work on e-governance is progressing

To provide housing for all Indians by 2022

Project sanc�oning stage but limited progress yet

Make in India

Ease of business

PMJDY (Financial inclusion)

Digital India

Housing For All

Implementa�on gaining

momentum

Implementa�on gaining

momentum

Success with major objec�ves achieved

Entered implementa�on stage

Entered implementa�on stage

Reform momentum strong

Monetary policy losescredibility on sustained

double digit infla�on

New MonetaryPolicy Framework

Infla�on roadmap for RBI

Ini�al Target - 8%

Intermediate Target - 6%

Mar ‘17 Target - 5%

12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

2012-14 2014-17 March 2017 onwards

Formal Infla�onTarget of

4% +/- 2%

RBI sets glide path for achievingsustained lower infla�on

Lower infla�on may lead to more rate cuts, aiding growth

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

(RE) (BE)Capex SubsidiesG

ov

t. E

xp

en

dit

ure

Subsidies v/s Government Capex

(% of GDP)

(as %

of

GD

P)

Fiscal spending orienta�on is shi�ing towards capex

Bu

dg

et

Fu

nd

ing

Big push to infrastructureinvestments

Roads Railways

In Rs . Bn

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16RE FY17BE

Source: Ambit Capital, CLSA Note: RE refers to revised es�mates and BE refers to Budget es�mates Nominal GDP for FY17 is assumed to grow at 11% YoY as men�oned in the FY17 union budget

Economic IndicatorsEconomic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators



84

82

80

78

84

74

72

70

68Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16

Capacity Utilization

Corporate Profits to GDP (%)

3.0

4.7

5.4

6.2

7.37.8

5.6

6.56.2

4.9 4.64.3

4.0 3.7

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

Unu�lized capacity hur�ng opera�ng margin

Corporate ROEs on the mend

Industrial capacity u�liza�on may be bo�oming

23 Nifty Best P/E

Nifty 50 Index Forward P/E

21

19

17

15

13

11

9

7Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16

Nifty Best P/B Average

6

4

2

0Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16

Nifty 50 Index Forward P/B

Valua�ons broadly reasonable

Economic Cycle away

from peak and is still in

recovery stage.

We expect further

value unlocking over

next 2 years

Time

Le

ve

l of re

al o

utp

ut

The Economic Cycle

We are here

Peak

Peak

Peak

Growth

Trend

Recession

Recession

Trough

Trough

Rec

over

y

Rec

over

y

We are here

Time

Le

vel o

f re

al o

utp

ut

The Economic Cycle

Economic Cycle away from peak and is s�ll in recovery stage.

We expect further value unlocking over next 2 years




1999-2002EarningsGrowth-1% pa

(-3.8% absolute)

2003-2007Earnings Growth

+24.7% pa(+201.5% absolute)

Nifty Returns5.4% pa

(23.5% absolute)


(458.5% absolute)


(151.6% absolute)

2008-2015Earnings Growth

+6.1% pa(+51.9% absolute)

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14

Nifty Earnings Trend (Jan 1999 - December 2015)

Earnings tend to be cyclical linked to economy

Source: Bloomberg, Data from Dec'80 - Dec'15, Returns are compounded annualized. Data based on yearly rolling

21%

1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 15 year

17%

26%

13%10%

NeverNever

17% 17% 15%

of the

of the

of the

times negative

times negative

times negative

The volatility reduces over time giving more

stabilized returns with lower probability of losses

negative negative

Rolling returns based on Sensex (1980 - 2015)

Benefits of long term investments

Disclaimer : All Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, the above given informa�on is of the past performance of growth op�on of various equity mutual fund schemes, Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future, prospec�ve Investors are advised to read the Scheme Informa�on Document and Statement of Addi�onal Informa�on of the respec�ve mutual fund scheme before inves�ng. *Returns upto 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are annualize.


diwali pick 2016mhfs.in/form/others/mf performance/2016/oct16/product... · 2018-03-09 · happy...

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