distress sales ppt oct 2015
DESCRIPTION
Distressoct2015TRANSCRIPT
DISTRESSED SALESPRESS RELEASE
November 22, 2015
SHARE OF EQUITY SALES DOWN FROM SEP 15,BUT STILL NEAR THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN SIX YEARS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐0
9Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐1
0Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Apr‐11
Jul‐1
1Oct‐11
Jan‐12
Apr‐12
Jul‐1
2Oct‐12
Jan‐13
Apr‐13
Jul‐1
3Oct‐13
Jan‐14
Apr‐14
Jul‐1
4Oct‐14
Jan‐15
Apr‐15
Jul‐1
5Oct‐15
Equity Sales Short Sale REO
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
93.7%
3.3%
2.7%
OVER NINE OF TEN SALES WERE EQUITY SALES
REOs, 3.3%
Short Sales, 2.7%
Other Distressed Sales (Not Specified),
0.3%
Equity Sales, 93.7%
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California: October 2015
SHARE OF EQUITY SALES HAS REMAINED ABOVE 90% SINCE THE MID OF 2014
94%
3% 3%
94%
3% 3%
91%
4% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Equity Sales Short Sales REO Sales
Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Type of Sale Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
Equity Sales 93.7% 94.1% 91.5%
Total Distressed Sales 6.3% 5.9% 8.5%
REOs 3.3% 3.1% 3.8%
Short Sales 2.7% 2.5% 4.4%
Other Distressed Sales (Not Specified) 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
All Sales 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SHARE OF DISTRESSED SALES NEAR THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LATE 2007
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DISTRESSED SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Bay Area: October 2015
3%3% 3%
3%
0%1%
2%
7%
3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Alameda ContraCosta
Marin Napa SanFrancisco
San MateoSanta Clara Solano Sonoma
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DISTRESSED SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Southern California: October 2015
7%
4%
10%10%
4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino San Diego
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DISTRESSED SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Central Valley: October 2015
12%10%
7%
19%
11%
6%7%
6%7% 7%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DISTRESSED SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Rest of California: October 2015
6%5%
8%
5% 6%
11%
7%
0%
10%
6%
3% 3%
1%
11%
16%
2%
4%
8%
5%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
County Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
Alameda 3% 3% 5%Amador 6% 5% 12%Butte 5% 7% 13%
Calaveras 8% 5% 12%Contra Costa 3% 3% 3%El Dorado 5% 6% 11%Fresno 12% 10% 15%Glenn 6% 14% 24%
Humboldt 11% 5% 13%Kern 10% 9% 10%Kings 7% 11% 19%Lake 7% 16% 16%
Los Angeles 7% 6% 7%Madera 19% 6% 22%Marin 3% 2% 4%
SHARE OF DISTRESSED SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 1 of 3
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SHARE OF DISTRESSED SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 2 of 3
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
County Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
Mariposa 0% 25% 14%Mendocino 10% 0% 10%Merced 11% 10% 10%
Monterey 6% 5% 9%Napa 3% 4% 3%Orange 4% 3% 4%Placer 6% 5% 8%Plumas 3% 2% 9%Riverside 10% 8% 11%
Sacramento 7% 7% 12%San Benito 6% 7% 13%
San Bernardino 10% 9% 14%San Diego 4% 4% 5%
San Francisco 0% 1% 2%San Joaquin 7% 7% 12%
SHARE OF DISTRESSED SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 3 of 3
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
County Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
San Luis Obispo 3% 4% 6%San Mateo 1% 1% 1%Santa Clara 2% 1% 2%Santa Cruz 1% 2% 5%Shasta 11% 9% 14%Siskiyou 16% 12% 26%Solano 7% 7% 11%Sonoma 1% 3% 5%Stanislaus 7% 8% 13%Sutter 3% 2% 9%Tehama 8% 16% 13%Tulare 12% 12% 21%Yolo 5% 8% 5%Yuba 12% 5% 9%
California 6% 6% 8%
REO & SHORT SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Bay Area: October 2015
2%1%
2%
0% 0% 1% 1%
3% 3%
2%
2%
0%
3%
0%0%
1%
4%
0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Alameda ContraCosta
Marin Napa SanFrancisco
San MateoSanta Clara Solano Sonoma
REO Sales Short Sales
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO & SHORT SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Southern California: October 2015
3%
1%
5%6%
1%
4%
2%
4%3%
2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino San Diego
REO Sales Short Sales
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO & SHORT SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Central Valley: October 2015
8% 7%5%
19%
7%
2% 3% 4% 4% 4%
9%
4%3%
2%
0%
5%
4%4% 2% 3% 3%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20% REO Sales Short Sales
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO & SHORT SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Rest of California: October 2015
6%4%
6%3%
6%7% 6%
0%
8%
3% 3% 2%1%
10%
16%
3%
8%
1%
9%0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
4%
1%
0%
2%
3%0% 1%
1%
0%
0%
1%
0%
3%
3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%REO Sales Short Sales
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 1 of 3County Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
Alameda 2% 2% 2%Amador 6% 0% 10%Butte 4% 6% 9%
Calaveras 6% 2% 9%Contra Costa 1% 2% 2%El Dorado 3% 3% 5%Fresno 8% 6% 9%Glenn 6% 14% 18%
Humboldt 7% 4% 5%Kern 7% 5% 6%Kings 5% 3% 11%Lake 6% 15% 13%
Los Angeles 3% 2% 2%Madera 19% 4% 22%Marin 2% 0% 1%
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REO SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 2 of 3
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
County Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
Mariposa 0% 17% 14%Mendocino 8% 0% 10%Merced 7% 3% 4%
Monterey 3% 3% 3%Napa 0% 1% 0%Orange 1% 1% 0%Placer 2% 3% 4%Plumas 3% 2% 9%Riverside 5% 5% 5%
Sacramento 3% 4% 6%San Benito 4% 2% 2%
San Bernardino 6% 6% 8%San Diego 1% 1% 2%
San Francisco 0% 1% 1%San Joaquin 4% 4% 6%
REO SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 3 of 3
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
County Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
San Luis Obispo 2% 3% 2%San Mateo 1% 0% 0%Santa Clara 1% 0% 1%Santa Cruz 1% 1% 2%Shasta 10% 8% 12%Siskiyou 16% 10% 26%Solano 3% 4% 6%Sonoma 0% 2% 3%Stanislaus 4% 4% 6%Sutter 3% 6% 10%Tehama 8% 8% 13%Tulare 9% 8% 13%Yolo 1% 6% 0%Yuba 9% 2% 5%
California 3% 3% 4%
SHORT SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 1 of 3Alameda 2% 1% 3%Amador 0% 3% 2%Butte 1% 1% 3%
Calaveras 2% 3% 4%Contra Costa 2% 1% 1%El Dorado 1% 3% 5%Fresno 4% 3% 7%Glenn 0% 0% 0%
Humboldt 4% 1% 8%Kern 3% 3% 4%Kings 2% 7% 8%Lake 1% 1% 2%
Los Angeles 4% 3% 5%Madera 0% 2% 0%Marin 0% 2% 3%
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SHORT SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 2 of 3
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
County Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
Mariposa 0% 8% 0%Mendocino 2% 0% 0%Merced 5% 7% 6%
Monterey 3% 3% 5%Napa 3% 3% 3%Orange 2% 2% 3%Placer 4% 2% 3%Plumas 0% 0% 0%Riverside 4% 3% 6%
Sacramento 4% 3% 6%San Benito 2% 5% 11%
San Bernardino 3% 3% 6%San Diego 2% 2% 3%
San Francisco 0% 0% 1%San Joaquin 3% 3% 5%
SHORT SALES BY COUNTY
Percent of Total Sales: 3 of 3
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
County Oct‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐14
San Luis Obispo 1% 1% 4%San Mateo 0% 1% 1%Santa Clara 1% 1% 2%Santa Cruz 1% 0% 2%Shasta 0% 1% 3%Siskiyou 0% 2% 0%Solano 4% 3% 5%Sonoma 0% 1% 2%Stanislaus 3% 3% 8%Sutter 1% 1% 1%Tehama 0% 5% 0%Tulare 2% 4% 8%Yolo 3% 2% 5%Yuba 3% 2% 4%
California 3% 2% 4%
MEDIAN PRICE OF EQUITY SALES IN OCTOBER BOUNCED BACK AFTER 3 MONTHS’ OF DECLINE
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐0
9Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐1
0Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Apr‐11
Jul‐1
1Oct‐11
Jan‐12
Apr‐12
Jul‐1
2Oct‐12
Jan‐13
Apr‐13
Jul‐1
3Oct‐13
Jan‐14
Apr‐14
Jul‐1
4Oct‐14
Jan‐15
Apr‐15
Jul‐1
5Oct‐15
Equity Sales Short Sale REO
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
THE MEDIAN PRICE OF EQUITY SALES INCHED UP FROM LAST YEAR
‐20%
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐1
0
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Apr‐11
Jul‐1
1
Oct‐11
Jan‐12
Apr‐12
Jul‐1
2
Oct‐12
Jan‐13
Apr‐13
Jul‐1
3
Oct‐13
Jan‐14
Apr‐14
Jul‐1
4
Oct‐14
Jan‐15
Apr‐15
Jul‐1
5
Oct‐15
Equity Sales Short Sale REO
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
yty% chg. in Price
UNSOLD INVENTORY INDEX
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Equity Sales Short Sales REO Sales
3.6
6.2
2.7
SERIES: Distressed Unsold Inventory Index, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
UNSOLD INVENTORY INDEX (MONTHS)
California: October 2015
ACTIVE LISTINGS REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS
0
1
2
3
4
5
Equity Sales Short Sales REO Sales
2.62.8
1.7
SERIES: Distressed Unsold Inventory Index, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
UNSOLD INVENTORY INDEX (MONTHS)
California: October 2015
UNSOLD INVENTORY FOR EQUITY SALES REMAINED NEAR THE LOWEST LEVEL IN LAST 18 MONTHS
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Aug‐11
Oct‐11
Dec‐11
Feb‐12
Apr‐12
Jun‐12
Aug‐12
Oct‐12
Dec‐12
Feb‐13
Apr‐13
Jun‐13
Aug‐13
Oct‐13
Dec‐13
Feb‐14
Apr‐14
Jun‐14
Aug‐14
Oct‐14
Dec‐14
Feb‐15
Apr‐15
Jun‐15
Aug‐15
Oct‐15
Equity Sales Short Sales REO
2.7
SERIES: Distressed Months Supply of Inventory, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
UNSOLD INVENTORY INDEX (MONTHS)
6.2
3.6
EQUITY SALES INCREASED MODERATELY FROM LAST YEAR
Raw# of Equity Sales, REO, & Short‐Sales
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐0
9
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐1
0
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Apr‐11
Jul‐1
1
Oct‐11
Jan‐12
Apr‐12
Jul‐1
2
Oct‐12
Jan‐13
Apr‐13
Jul‐1
3
Oct‐13
Jan‐14
Apr‐14
Jul‐1
4
Oct‐14
Jan‐15
Apr‐15
Jul‐1
5
Oct‐15
Equity Sales Short Sale REO
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
‐40%
‐35%
‐30%
‐25%
‐20%
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
Equity Sales Short Sales REO Sales
6%
‐37%
‐10%
DISTRESSED SALES CONTINUED TO DECLINE, ESPECIALLY FOR SHORT SALES
(% Change in Sales –Year to Year)
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DISTRESSED SALES CONTINUED TO DECLINE, ESPECIALLY FOR SHORT SALES
‐80%
‐60%
‐40%
‐20%
0%
20%
40%
60% Equity Sales Short Sales REO Sales
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
yty% chg in sales
5.5%
‐37.0%
‐9.8%
DISTRESSED SALES
Percent of Total Sales: October 2015
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct‐15 Jan‐09
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DISTRESSED SALES
Percent of Total Sales, S.F. Bay Area: October 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
CA Alameda Contra Costa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara
6.3%3.4% 2.8% 0.4% 0.8% 1.9%
69.1%75.7%
68.5%
34.5%
48.2%
68.0%
Oct‐15 Jan‐09
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DISTRESSED SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Southern California: October 2015
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CA Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino
6.3% 6.9%3.8%
9.7% 9.5%
69.1%63.2% 60.2%
80.1% 82.8%
Oct‐15 Jan‐09
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DISTRESSED SALES
Percent of Total Sales, Central Valley: October 2015
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
6.3% 11.5%6.1% 7.4% 6.1% 7.3% 6.9% 11.9%
69.1%
84.2% 86.1%
68.4%
85.6% 89.5% 93.0% 93.6%
45.8%
Oct‐15 Jan‐09
SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®