dissertation cm - climate change and argiculture in west himalayas (low res)

School of Geographical and Earth Sciences

Undergraduate Dissertation

2016 - 2017

Climate Change and Perceived Agricultural

Sustainability in the West Himalayas

The University of Glasgow


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COVER SHEET FOR DISSERTATION

Declaration of Originality Name: Cameron Mackay Matriculation Number: 2074844m Course Name: Geography Level 4H (BSc) Title of Dissertation: Climate Change and Perceived Agricultural Sustainability

in the West Himalayas Number of words: 9816

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Climate Change and Perceived Agricultural Sustainability in the West Himalayas

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Acknowledgements

For support given in research design and expedition planning, I would like to thank Jim Hansom who

gave valuable insights and advice to this project. Academic guidance was also given from Anja Byg,

Sally Daultry, Kirsty Fisher, Vladimiro Pellicardi, Chie Sakakibara and Olivia Taylor. Expedition

advice was also received from Shane Winser through the Royal Geographical Society (RGS) which

was much appreciated.

In the field area of Ladkah, I would like to thank the gatekeeper organisations: Ladakh Environmental

and Health Organisation (LEHO), Leh Nutrition Project (LNP), Ladakh Ecological Development Group

(LEDeG) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) India Ladakh Field Office. I would also like to thank

the individuals: Ajaz Abdu, Suryanarayanan Balasubramanian, Dr Mohammed Deen, Dorjey, Stanzin

Gya, Nazir and Chewang Norphel. Thanks also to the translators: Kunzes Dolma, Adiba Jahan and

Richen Tundup who gained me access to people within remote villages. Finally, I must extend my

appreciation to all research participants and residents of Ladakh who welcomed us into their homes and

demonstrated famous Ladakhi hospitality.

I must also note my appreciation for Abel McLinden who acted as a research assistant in Ladakh whose

enthusiasm and willingness to support the research allowed large objectives to be undertaken.

Lastly, I would like to thank my parents for their ongoing advice and support regarding overseas

research and travel.


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Abstract

A long-term trend of increasing climate change is the West Himalayas has caused regional

temperature increase and snowfall decrease. Whilst this has been shown through a wide

selection of scientific studies, there is a lack of research detailing the subsequent human

impacts. Through gathering data of traditional ecological knowledge from remote subsistence

communities in the study area of Leh Block in North India, the perceptions of local people

relating to the perceived sustainability of subsistence agriculture were examined using a mixed

methods approach of interviews, questionnaires and participant observation. Results show that

agriculture is believed to be endangered due to water scarcity, irrigation difficulties and

shortening of growing season due to climate change. Analysis also revealed that the factors of

altitude and glacial area within the watershed of each studied village significantly impacted on

vulnerability. Villages at lower altitudes on south facing slopes with little glacial area within

their watersheds were shown to be the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Because of these climatic changes, climate change can now be seen as a push factor influencing

migration away from agricultural areas. This study summarises the observed impacts of climate

change and agricultural sustainability in the West Himalayas and compares this to previous

research conducted in the Himalayas and globally relating to climate change and traditional

ecological knowledge.


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Contents

1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………...... 1

1.1 Rationale…………………………………………………………………… 1

1.2 Research Aims and Questions……………………………………………... 1

1.3 Project Outline……………………………………………………………... 2

2 Literature Review………………………………………………………………… 4

2.1 Ladakh Background……………………………………………………….. 4

2.1.1 Geography and Climate 4

2.1.2 Indigenous Agriculture 4

2.2 Evidence and Impacts of Climate Change in Ladakh ……………………... 5

2.2.1 Temperature 5

2.2.2 Glacier Mass Balance 6

2.2.3 Snowfall Quantity 7

2.2.4 Rainfall Intensity 7

2.3 Human Response to Climate Change in Ladakh…………………………... 7

2.3.1 Traditional Ecological Knowledge 7

2.3.2 Vulnerability and Sustainability 8

2.3.2 Climate Change Perception Studies 8

2.4 Niche for Research………………………………………………………… 9

3 Methodology……………………………………………………………………... 10

3.1 Study Area…………………………………………………………………. 10

3.2 Data Collection…………………………………………………………….. 10

3.2.1 Interviews 10

3.2.2 Participant Observation 13

3.2.3 Questionnaires 13

3.3 Data Processing…………………………………………………………….. 14

3.3.1 Qualitative Data Coding 14

3.3.2 Statistical Data Analysis 15

3.4 Ethics……………………………………………………………………….. 16


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4 Results……………………………………………………………………………... 18

4.1 Interviews…………………………………………………………………... 18

4.1.1 Observations and Impacts of Climate Change 18

4.1.2 Factors Affecting Village Vulnerability 20

4.1.3 Perceptions of Agricultural Sustainability 23

4.2 Questionnaires ……………………………………………………………... 25

4.2.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture 25

4.2.2 Response to Observed Climate Change 26

4.3 Participant Observation…………………………………………………….. 27

4.3.1 Farming Practices Response to Environmental Change 27

4.3.2 Government and NGO Support for Sustainability 27

5 Discussion: TEK and Global Climate Change………………………………….. 29

5.1 Ladakh Academic Knowledge……………………………………………... 29

5.1.1 Traditional Ecological Knowledge 29

5.1.2 Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change 30

5.1.3 Sustainability and Adaptability 31

5.2 Wider Implications…………………………………………………………. 32

5.2.1 Climate Change and Remote Subsistence Communities 32

5.2.2 Global Policy and Awareness 32

5.2.3 Climate Change Refugees 33

5.2.4 Integrated Management and Research Impact 34

6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 35

6.1 Research Question: Summary of Findings………………………………… 35

6.2 Limitations…………………………………………………………………. 36

6.3 Opportunities for Further Investigation and Dissemination……………….. 37

7 References…………………………………………………………………………. 38

8 Appendixes………………………………………………………………………... 42

Supplementary CD – All Transcripts and MPS recordings


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1 Introduction

1.1 Rationale

Climate change has caused environmental conditions to reach and exceed extremes never

before seen by mankind (Zalasiewicz et al., 2010). Due to a global mean surface temperature

rise of 0.85oC between 1880 and 2012, there have been impacts on physical systems such as

precipitation, on biological systems such as terrestrial ecosystems and on human systems such

as food production (IPCC, 2014). The people to be most adversely affected by these changes

are those living in locations of high latitude and altitude, as well as those who rely solely on

cultivation of the physical landscape for food and livelihoods (Tariyal and Bartwal, 2014). In

some mountain regions such as the Himalayas, people are currently facing severe water

shortages due to the accelerated melting of glaciers, which is putting increasing pressure on

agricultural systems (Daultrey, 2011). However, there has been a disproportionate amount of

research conducted into the physical geographical phenomenon of climate change compared

to that detailing the responses of remote subsistence communities (RSCs), especially in

mountain areas. To help support these remote communities in adapting to climatic changes,

Salick and Byg (2007) discuss how a global response is needed, for which detailed accounts of

these communities’ perceptions and experiences are highly valued and will allow more

appropriate support to be administered. Also, through communicating such research findings,

particularly those detailing how climate change affects people, to policy makers and the public

in countries such as the UK, decisions to act in more globally aware and environmentally

sustainable ways can be influenced (Korte, 2016). Philo and Happer (2013) have shown that,

conducted effectively, communication of issues surrounding climate change can make

members of the public more alert, aware and more likely to act on the issue.

1.2 Research Aims and Questions

This project aims to study how sustainable local people perceive agricultural practices to be,

given current and future trends of increasing climate change, in the Ladakh Region of the Indian

Himalayas.

The issue of climate change is too wide-reaching and complex to draw overarching conclusions

from one project (Pittock, 2009). Therefore, to make credible claims within this small scale

study, conclusions will be drawn relating only to perceptions and responses from people within

the field area to determine how sustainable local people believe agriculture is within the

1. Introduction

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increasingly instable climate of Block Leh. In order to gain as full an understanding as possible

of how climate change is impacting agriculture throughout Block Leh, a variety of different

villages was visited. This allowed several themes to be included in the data and ultimately

contributed to comparisons being made between different factors affecting villages and also a

more thorough representation of the issue of climate change in Block Leh.

The main research question was: How sustainable do local residents of Block Leh, Ladakh

believe agricultural practices to be in light of current and projected climate change? The

research objectives were as follows:

1. Identify the extent to which climate change is experienced in Block Leh;

2. Establish factors affecting the vulnerability of communities in Ladakh to climate

change;

3. Identify to what extent traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) relates to scientific

knowledge;

4. Establish how successful and sustainable operational mitigation strategies are;

5. Given predicted future temperature increase in Ladakh, establish how sustainable

farming practices are believed to be.

1.3 Project Outline

This thesis aims to outline the background literature and methodological approaches used

to design this research project as well as to present data obtained and to link this back to

literature.

Chapter 2, ‘Literature Review’, aims to establish the current understandings within

literature regarding the impact climate change has on the physical and human landscape of

the West Himalayas. A gap in research will also be suggested.

Chapter 3, ‘Methodology’, outlines the study area and reasons for choosing it as well as

each research technique, namely interviews, questionnaires and participant observation and

how data from each was processed.

Chapter 4, ‘Results and Interpretation’, presents data from each research technique,

triangulates these techniques and interprets the links between each theme that was

discovered as well as how they influence each other.


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Chapter 5, ‘Discussion’, links data from the results back to the literature to determine how

this study relates to previous work in Ladakh and work that details climate change

perceptions around the world. The wider implications of the data gathered will also be

considered.

Chapter 6, ‘Conclusion’, summarises all data gathered and its wider implications as well as

critiquing the project as a whole to outline what steps could be taken to improve it in future.

Ideas for future research, based on themes found in this study are also suggested.

2. Literature Review

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2 Literature Review This chapter aims to present the actual climatic change trend in the West Himalayas through

review of previous scientific studies, show what is known of the perceived impacts of climate

change through human research and ultimately define the aspect of research that this study

aims to explore.

2.1 Ladakh Background

2.1.1 Geography and Climate

The region of Ladakh, India, lies in the northwest Himalayas with the Karakoram Range to the

west and the Greater Himalaya Range to the south. Formed during the Himalayan Orogeny

(Phartiyal, 2004), the Ladakh plateau is the highest area in the state of Jammu and Kashmir

and has altitudes averaging above 3000m with peaks as high as 7000m (Rizvi, 1999). Whilst

much of India receives high quantities of rainfall from yearly monsoons, Ladakh sits in an area

of rain shadow caused by its proximity to the Greater Himalaya Range (Negi, 1995) and

receives on average 100mm rainfall each year (Meena et al., 2015). The area is therefore known

as a ‘high altitude cold desert’ (Agarwal and Ahmed, 2006). Negi continues to discuss how the

area experiences long winters, with temperatures ranging from -35oC to 0oC allowing fairly

frequent snowfall and shorter summers, where temperatures reach up to 25oC in the warmest

areas, allowing snow and ice to melt and facilitate crop cultivation. Autumn and spring are

short and show little distinctive change. This seasonal cycle can be seen in Figure 2.1.

2.1.2 Indigenous Agriculture

Although poor in natural resources, many villages in Ladakh are situated on the banks of rivers

and streams where water can be siphoned for irrigation and crop cultivation (Pellicardi et al.,

2014) as well as livestock husbandry (Rizvi, 1999). For this, people in the area rely heavily on

meltwater rivers that flow from glaciers as well as on the little precipitation the region receives,

Winter Spring Summer Autumn Winter

Jan Feb Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Figure 2.1 Yearly seasonal cycles of the cold desert region of Ladakh showing prolonged summer and winter and short and undefined spring and autumn. Adapted from a written account of seasonal timings given by Negi (1995).


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which falls mainly as snow (Meena et al., 2015). In spring, the warmer temperatures allow the

snow and ice to melt and supply the farms in the area with water for irrigation (Pellicardi et al.,

2014). Traditionally, irrigation was conducted using gravity-controlled mud canals and

terraced fields (Nüsser et al., 2011). Through these irrigation channels, water is carefully

rationed and shared between all the households in one village (Asboe, 1947) on a rotational

system where each household will receive water for an allotted time (Rizvi, 1999).

Traditionally, this has allowed the growth of crops such as barley, wheat, pulses and fruits

(Pellicardi et al., 2014). Farming in Ladakh, however, has always been a challenging operation

because of the arid climatic conditions as well as the small size and variability of the region’s

glaciers, on which local people depend for water (Schmidt and Nüsser, 2012). Because farming

has thrived despite these adverse conditions, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (2009)

state that Ladakh should be recognised as a ‘Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System’.

2.2 Evidence and Impacts of Climate Instability in Ladakh

Remote subsistence communities (RSCs) are hit hardest by anthropogenic changes in climate

due to their strong reliance on the natural landscape for food and livelihood, especially in

remote mountain and desert communities where they are argued to be on the ‘front-line’ of the

issue because of the pressures on water supplies (Masserli and Ives, 1997; Salick and Byg,

2007). Previous studies of climate instability in high mountain areas focus on the physical

factors of temperature, glacier mass balance, snowfall quantity and rainfall intensity (Byg and

Salick, 2009; Ingold et al., 2010; McDowell et al., 2014) and these have been documented, in

varying detail, in relation to Ladakh.

2.2.1 Temperature

In the small amount of studies that have been conducted into temporal temperature variation in

the Western Himalayas, a clear trend of rising yearly temperature been established (Meena et

al., 2015). Studies of temperature in the north-western Himalayas from 1901 indicate that there

has been a significant increase in air temperature since the late 1960s and that, between 1901

and 2001, the temperature in the region increased by 1.6oC (Bhutiyani et al., 2007). Shekhar et

al. (2010) state that the seasonal annual mean temperature increased by ~2oC between 1984

and 2008, which is backed up at a lower extreme in Leh by Angmo and Mishra (2009). The

rising temperature trend can be seen in Figure 2.2. These unprecedented rates of annual

warming can be seen across the Himalayas and are expected to continue in future and have

knock on effects on other processes in the area (Dash and Hunt, 2007; Xu et al., 2009).


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2.2.2 Glacier Mass Balance

Glaciers and ice caps will be the first physical processes to respond to a warming climate (Nesje

and Dahl, 2000). This rising temperature means that glaciers no longer receive enough snow

in winter to counteract the summer melting, leading to a negative mass balance and excessive

ablation (Haeberli, 2011). This is the case in the Indian Himalayas, where glaciers are currently

very small in area and are continuing to recede (Schmidt and Nüsser, 2012). Schmidt and

Nüsser continue to state that, shortly following the significant increase in air temperature in the

late 1960s noted by Bhutiyani et al. (2007), between 1969 and 2010, Ladakh’s glaciated area

decreased by 14%. Despite the fact that warming could cause an initial increase in discharge

in melt water river, this decreasing trend in ice mass is much more significant and will

ultimately result in a much lower meltwater discharge (Thayyen and Gergan, 2010).

Figure 2.2 West Himalaya Temperature Trend: Annual mean winter minimum temperature data extracted from previous research into temperature change in the West Himalaya. A shows data from Bhutiyani et al. (2007) for Leh District between 1903 – 1999 and has R2 = 0.01. B shows data from Shekhar et al. (2010) for West Himalaya region between 1984 – 2007 and has R2 = 0.21. C shows data from Angmo and Mishra (2009) for Leh Airport, which lies at 3500m and is higher than the mean of other studies’ weather stations, between 1973 – 2008 and has R2 = 0.07. Using these trend lines, data is projected until 2020.

-3-2.5

-2-1.5

-1-0.5

00.5

11.5

2

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Tem

pera

ture

(deg

rees

cel

sius

)

Year

Shekhar et al. (2010)

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Tem

pera

ture

(deg

rees

cel

sius

)

Year

Bhutiyani et al. (2007)

-17

-16

-15

-14

-13

-12

-11

-10

-9

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Tem

pera

ture

(deg

rees

cel

sius

)

Year

Angmo and Mishra (2009)

A

B C


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2.2.3 Snowfall Quantity

The warming air temperature will also influence precipitation, particularly snowfall

(Richardson et al., 2011). In Ladakh this is particularly evident as, in 1993, the amount of snow

cover in spring began to declining and also started melting at a faster rate (Kripalani et al.,

2003). Shekhar et al. (2010) supports this argument and states that between 1988 and 2008

there was an average reduction of 267cm of yearly snowfall.

2.2.4 Rainfall Intensity

The regularity of intense precipitation events has dramatically increased in Ladakh since the

1990s and many flash flood, or cloudburst, events have occurred (Hobley et al., 2010). As these

cloudbursts occur, localised intensive rainfall occurs and increases overland flow and river

discharge (Tariyal and Bartwal, 2014). Geologically, many young and easily erodible rocks

can be found in the area which adds high levels of silt to the rivers and causes debris flows

(Debraj, 2013). As most Ladakhi villages are built around river channels in the centre of

valleys, these floods have caused high levels of damage to infrastructure (Thayyen at al., 2013).

2.3 Human Response to Climate Instability in Ladakh

In order to gain a full understanding of the impacts of climate instability in any given area,

human perceptions and experiences must be considered alongside scientific, statistically

proven studies (Alexander et al., 2011). There is a growing field of environmental research

known as Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) that has represented indigenous

perceptions of climate instability, and there has also been local documentation of the impact of

the changing Himalayan climate on Ladakhi people.

2.3.1 Traditional Ecological Knowledge

The concept of TEK has been present in peer-reviewed literature for many decades but has

only recently been used to encompass climate change (Harrington, 2015). Berkes (1993)

defines TEK as: ‘experience acquired over thousands of years of direct human contact with the

environment’ based on qualitative, observational and, in some cases, spiritual knowledge. This

type of study has been shown to complement physical and highly quantitative studies through

merging traditional knowledge of livelihoods, farming and climate (Freeman, 1992) with

meteorological and remote sensing data relating to climatic and cryospheric change (Alexander

et al., 2011). Until now, TEK research relating to climate instability has focused primarily on

Arctic regions and North America (Harrington, 2015; Sakakibara, 2008; Pearce et al., 2015),

which has made valuable contributions to local governments and global academic


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understandings (Alexander et al. 2011). However, there is also a great opportunity to develop

TEK further in mountain regions such as the Himalayas where there is not currently a large

amount of work done on it (Salick and Byg, 2007). Although there is a growing body of work

documenting the impacts of climate change in Ladakh, TEK has yet to be brought into

discussion there and, as the region is particularly vulnerable (Rizvi, 1999), this could be of

great benefit.

2.3.2 Vulnerability and Sustainability

Literature also shows key themes in how these social-ecological interactions can influence the

vulnerability and resilience of different communities through provisions from the natural

environment allowing ecosystems and people to sustain life (Folke, 2006). When there is a

capacity for adaptation and an ability to utilise resources within a community to mitigate

against external issues such as climate change, they can be seen to have higher levels of

resilience (Robinson and Carson, 2016). However, when this is not possible villages can be

seen to be vulnerable (Shukla, 2016).

The definition for sustainability in this study will be taken from Wackernagel and Rees (1962)

who define sustainability as the ability: “to live equitably within the means of nature”.

Therefore, the threshold of sustainability will be the point where a community can no longer

practice subsistence farming with only natural resources and is forced to have human

intervention.

2.3.3 Climate Change Perception Studies

Many studies have been done into the impact that climate change is having on people in the

Himalayas and, in Ladakh, these detail in particular issues surrounding water shortages. The

main findings include that the decrease in meltwater for irrigation is so severe in some villages

that people are not able to get sufficient water and have had to migrate to other villages (Angmo

and Mishra, 2009). The rising temperature has also brought about an increase in pests and

insects noted in fields and on crops. In general, it is believed that local people are facing more

challenges now than before in cultivating and producing crops in the Leh District (Pellicardi et

al., 2014). However, the causes of this are not limited to climate instability. Nüsser et al. (2011)

describe how the hydrological processes and decreasing cultivated area are also heavily

influenced by social change. Whilst there is a growing knowledge base of the physical

landscape in Ladakh and how it being affected by climate change, few studies relating climate

change directly to local people’s perceptions have been done in the area.


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To combat these water shortages, mitigation strategies have been set up in the Ladakh area, a

frequent example of which being artificial glaciers. The Leh Nutrition Project (2016) describes

how, based on traditional methods, modern applications of artificial glaciers channel meltwater

streams to a series of dams where it freezes between November and December. These dams

are staggered at increasing altitudes so, as the temperature gradually increases in Spring, they

melt one by one to provide a continuous supply of water for agriculture (Daultrey and Gergan,

2011). This process can be seen in Figure 2.3.

Although there has been little TEK and perception based research conducted in Ladakh, this

has been widely conducted in the Arctic (Sakakibara, 2008; 2011) and in the Tibet Himalayas

(Byg and Salick, 2009). These authors provide a useful framework to be followed in Ladakh.

2.4 Niche for this research

The current body of knowledge regarding climate change in the West Himalayas comprises of

physical studies showing trends of climatic change and human studies showing limited

accounts of impacts of these changes on RSCs. There is great opportunity for more perception-

based and environmental geography research to be undertaken in the West Himalayas, to

augment the current studies of human response to climate change which could inform

adaptation strategies locally and worldwide. TEK has yet to be widely used in Ladakh so a

study in which it was used as a key part of the methodology could offer a new perspective and

indicate if further TEK research would be of benefit.

The methodology used to investigate this niche in research is outlined in the following chapter.

Alti

tude

Ice

Ice

Main Channel

Side Channel

Water Gates

Dam Walls Gate (closed) Gate (open)

Irrigation Water

Figure 2.3 Artificial Glacier Structure: Diagram showing the structure of an artificial glacier (A), the formation of ice through dams in winter (B) and the periodic melting in spring to provide meltwater for irrigation (C). Adapted from LNP (2016).

A B C

3. Methodology

3 Methodology

This chapter aims to outline the methodological approaches taken in this study. Firstly, the

field site will be presented and reasons for choosing it discussed. Data collection and data

analysis methods will then be shown for each of the three research techniques: interviews,

questionnaires and participant observation.

3.1 Study Area

The Leh Block area of the Indus Valley in the Ladakh Region of North India was chosen as

the study area for this project. This area provided access to many agricultural settlements as

well as the largest city in the region, Leh, which acts as a central hub for many of the

agricultural settlements in Ladakh (Rizvi, 1999). Each village that was studied was situated

within its own individual watershed, so clear analysis of respective responses for each village

could be conducted. The three types of watershed were north facing slope, south facing slope

and floodplain, as can be seen in Table 3.1. Eight villages were visited to collect data, as can

be seen in Figure 3.1. The sampling strategy was to visit 50% of of the villages in each type of

watershed. There were ten south facing slope villages in Leh Block, so five were visited, two

north facing slope villages so one was visited and four floodplain villages so two were visited.

3.2 Data Collection

As suggested by Yeager and Steiger (2013), qualitative methods used alongside quantitative

studies can connect human and social phenomena to spatial data. To achieve this, interviews,

participant observation and questionnaires were used. This mixed methods approach allowed

triangulation of the research question from different fieldwork techniques to maximise

understanding of the issues (Phillips and Johns, 2012), as can be seen in Figure 3.2. Data

gathering took place in agricultural areas, social space and in government offices.

3.2.1 Interviews

A total of 47 interviews were conducted with farmers, Indian government officials and local

agriculture specialists in Block Leh. This technique was used to give an illustrative account of

the impacts of climate change on agriculture as well as to create analysable data relating to

perceptions and experiences. The interview schedule can be seen in Appendix 1. A list of

completed interviews can be seen in Appendix 2. A sample of a completed, transcribed and

coded interview can be seen in Appendix 3 and all transcripts are available on a Supplementary

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BOX 4.1 Study Area The Leh Block area of the Indus Valley can be seen in Figure 3.1, along with each village where research was conducted. Detail of each village is given in Table 3.1 which shows the amount of each type of fieldwork conducted.

Table 3.1 Village site information for village in which research was conducted.

Large City Small Village Major River 5km

Phyang

Umla

Phey

Leh

Nang

Shey

Sabu

Stok

Indus River

B

N

A

South facing slope Umla Phyang Leh Saboo Altitude 3880m 3530m 3500m 3550m

Watershed Seasonal snowfall 1.95km2 glaciated area, seasonal snowfall

1.30km2 glaciated area, seasonal snowfall

0.28km2 glaciated area, seasonal snowfall

Natural water availability

1 stream, seasonal snow watershed

Meltwater stream Meltwater stream, spring

Meltwater stream

Interviews 4 2 19 5

Questionnaires 0 0 10 0

Participant Obs. 1 0 2 0

South facing slope North Facing Slope Floodplain Nang Stok Phey Shey Altitude 3630m 3600m 3190m 3240m

Watershed Seasonal snowfall 3.33km2 glaciated area, seasonal snowfall

Indus river Indus River

Natural water availability

Meltwater stream Meltwater river Spring Indus River

Interviews 5 5 2 5

Questionnaires 0 0 0 0

Participant Obs. 1 1 1 1

Figure 3.1: Maps showing settlements in which research was conducted. A shows the country of India with Ladakh region Highlighted. B shows precise Indus River Basin Field area. Adapted from Patterson (2016) and Google (2016).

3. Methodology

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CD. These provided illustrative qualitative data relating to people’s experiences, feelings and

opinions (Valentine, 2005) of climate change and agricultural sustainability in Ladakh. An

overview can be seen in Table 3.2. The ‘structured open-ended interview’ technique was used

throughout which, as defined by Kitchin and Tate (2000), consists of a standardised and

comparable series of open-ended questions in which the participant is free to construct their

own narrative. Standardisation was also achieved through reading the same research

information sheet to participants before each interview (Appendix 6). Kitchin and Tate

continue to suggest that the highly structured nature of these interviews could constrain the

responses of participants. To mitigate this issue, participants were offered time to discuss any

issues they felt relevant after direct questioning was complete. Interviews lasted on average 17

minutes. In most cases a recorder was used to capture sound but on two occasions participants

Farmers

GovernmentLocal Experts

Climate change and perceived

sustainability of agriculture

Interviews Questionnaires

Participant Observation

Figure 3.2 Research Design and Triangulation: Diagram showing three data collection types alongside the three main demographics of people targeted through this study.

Interview Category No. Conducted Information Gained

Village Interviews 38 Comparable TEK data

Agriculture workers’ perspective

Local Experts 5 Long term local academic knowledge

Technical perspective of mitigation strategies

Indian Government Officials 4 Insight to governance of region

Government workers’ perspective

Table 3.2 Interview Categories: Table showing each of the three types of interview conducted and what data they produced.


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were not comfortable to be recorded so notes were taken during the interview. As shown in

Figure 3.3 and 3.4, questions were posed by the researcher and responses were interpreted with

support from a translator.

Participants were chosen through illustrative sampling which would give insight to the

viewpoints of people with agricultural awareness as opposed to the entire population (Phillips

and Johns, 2012). As stated by Valentine (2005), gatekeepers in a study area will grant access

to interviewees. Through the Ladakh Environment and Health Organisation (LEHO) and Leh

Nutrition Project (LNP), the first village visits were set up. After this, the research snowballed

as interviewees provided contacts for further interviews. For village interviews, on site

recruitment was used through approaching areas where it was hoped individuals with insights

to climate and agriculture could be found. Through this technique, three focus group interviews

were also set up where village gatherings were approached. Village interviews were conducted

in research participants’ houses, gardens and social areas in each village. Household

interviews, such as this, allowed the participant to feel more comfortable and for the

interviewer to gain further insights to the cultures and livelihoods being investigated (Salick

and Byg, 2009; Phillips and Johns, 2012).

Through the interviews, the research question was triangulated by comparing the perceptions

in each village with differing themes as well as through comparing responses from

agriculturalists, government workers and mitigation strategy engineers.

BOX 3.1 Interview Translation For interviews with individual (Figure 3.3) and group respondents (Figure 3.4), an interpreter was used to firstly gain the trust of interviewees before translating questions to the Ladakhi language and interpreting the responses. Photos by McLinden (2016).

Figure 3.3 Individual interview in Nang village Figure 3.4 Group interview in Umla village

3. Methodology

14

3.2.2 Participant Observation

Participant observation was also conducted at 7 sites through the ‘complete observer’ method

which, as stated by Webb et al. (1966), involved conducting observation of farming practices

and indicators within them of the impacts of, and adaptations to, climatic change over the last

century. This technique was used to triangulate other techniques with direct observations of the

physical landscape in Leh Block. Using this method to consider the ethnographic background

of a space can allow links between local cultures and long term changes in society and

environment to be established (Hoggart et al., 2002). In other areas, through this technique,

Sakakibara (2008; 2011) observed the cultural practices of the local people in the Arctic to

make comparisons with recent climatic changes and this approach aimed to be emulated in this

study. Each participant observation can be seen in Table 3.3.

3.2.3 Questionnaires

In the field area and online through social media, 81 questionnaires were completed. 10 were

conducted through short conversations with local people in Leh and 71 were distributed online

Village Location Information Gained

Umla Agricultural land Village-level management of farming, Greenhouse mitigation strategy.

Leh Urban agriculture neighborhood

Farming processes in a high population density area with high demand for water,

Regulation of water for each farm.

Government office

Internal workings of agricultural governance and the attitudes of those in charge,

Challenges affecting government provisions.

Nang Artificial glacier Engineering and structure of artificial glaciers, Factors affecting the success of artificial glaciers, Villager’s engagement with maintenance of artificial glaciers.

Stok Agricultural land Irrigation on north facing slope, Perceptions of mitigation strategies where there is little irrigation

difficulty.

Phey Agricultural land Workings of rotational Ladakhi irrigation system, Ability of a farm on Indus Floodplain to irrigate, Lifestyle of subsistence household.

Shey Irrigation area Irrigation on Indus Floodplain. Table 3.3 Participant Observations: Table showing each participant observation that was carried out.


15

through the Facebook group ‘Ladakh in the Media’ comprising mainly of Ladakhi people. This

technique was used to give a broader view of perceptions of climate change in Ladakh and to

target people who had knowledge of the study area but were not reachable in person. The design

of the questioning took the form of an uncontrolled variable study which, as described by

Oppenheim (1992), incorporates several variables which are not controlled for research

purposes. Parfitt (2005) suggests that this uncontrolled variable technique could mislead the

conclusions made. However, this study aimed to mitigate against this risk through using

questionnaires as only one of three methods to contribute to triangulation of the research

question. Data was gained, through 5 answer-selection questions, on gender, age, occupation,

perception of climatic change and response to these changes. Sampling was confined to

participants who had experience of the Block Leh area. It is possible for all individuals in a

population to be aware of environmental change (Shi et al., 2015) so there was no need to

further specify.

3.3 Data Processing

3.3.1 Qualitative Data Coding

Following the completion of interview fieldwork, all interviews were transcribed from MP3

recordings using word-for-word transcription. These were then used to draw out main themes

raised amongst the interviewees through creating a coding scheme focusing on perceptions of

climate instability and sustainability of agriculture, as can be seen in Table 3.4. As

recommended by Kitchin and Tate (2000), each transcript was then coded (Appendix 1) and

results were plotted on a matrix of responses against each coding theme (Appendix 2). This

process was emulated for the questionnaire data under the coded themes of employment,

observed climatic changes and responses. Techniques of coding and creating a matrix were

used to allow the creation of a large numerical database which allowed a statistical analysis of

the research findings to be conducted.

3.3.2 Statistical Data Analysis

Once two independent matrix tables were created, statistical analysis could be conducted. Chi-

squared tests were used to determine if there was any correlation between occurrences of each

coding theme in interviews and questionnaires (Rogerson, 2006). This showed which perceived

themes were causal of other themes occurring. This was done through testing the null

hypothesis that there was no connection between each possible pair of coding themes. A

significance level of α = 0.05 and 1 degree of freedom were used for both data sets and any p

3. Methodology

16

values of <0.05 were deemed to be statistically significant and the null hypothesis of no

connection would be rejected.

Regression analysis was also conducted between coding themes and physical landscape data.

This allowed the significance of trends between datasets to be investigation. This showed

which themes were impacted by increasing environmental factors such as altitude and

watershed.

This statistical analysis allowed clearer and more credible themes and relationships within the

data collected to be presented in the results of this study and also facilitated the discovery of

data trends that were not observed through direct fieldwork.

Climate Instability Observations Increase in temperature A11 Decrease in snowfall A12 Increase in extreme precipitation events and instability

A13

Glacier lake outburst flood A14 Receding and vanishing of glaciers A15 Water scarcity A16

Impacts Decrease in crop yields A21 Increase in pests A22 Increase in crop variety grown A23 Soil erosion A24 Unable to irrigate fields/left baron A25 Decrease in crop cultivation time A26 Shift from dependence on subsistence agriculture to subsidies

A27

Increasing struggle to make profit/sustain livelihood

A28

Infrastructure damage and death/injury A29 Mitigations Artificial glacier A31

Water reservoir A32 Other A33

Sustainability of Agriculture Perceptions Farming is endangered in future B11 Farming practices can be sustainable/adapt

B12

Impacts expected in future B13 Farming practices affected and changing B14

Influencing factors Inability to farm without water supply B21 Mitigations don’t fully compensate B22 Mitigations can support sustainable future

B23

Difficulty gaining correctly skilled labor for mitigation projects

B24

Receive government and NGO support B25 Figure 3.4 Interview Coding Themes: Table showing each interview coding theme and its respective code, as can be seen in the coded transcript example in Appendix 3.


17

3.4 Ethics

As this project involved operating in a remote and culturally diverse environment, discussing

issues that are adversely affecting the lives of local people, ethical considerations had to be

made through gaining the trust of Ladakhi people.

Firstly, gaining consent from interview participants was not straightforward. While some

participants were happy to read an information sheet (Appendix 6) and sign a consent form

(Appendix 7), many were either illiterate or were not accustomed to writing their name to

provide a signature. In India, it is often customary to provide a thumb print as means of

signature so this process was adopted during the research to make participants feel more

comfortable. Through this, and through reading the information sheet, consent was gained from

every interviewee. Participants were also allowed to withdraw at any time and granted

anonymity which was necessary as some interview responses were highly critical of

government officials.

This methodology was effectively put into practice and produced the results which can be seen

in the following chapter.

4. Results and Interpretation

18


This chapter aims to present the data from interviews, questionnaires and participant

observation, to triangulate themes between these methodological approaches and to interpret

the possible explanations for each theme discovered.

4.1 Interviews

4.1.1 Observations and Impacts of Climate Change

This section aims to answer the first research objective through identifying what effects of

climate change are experienced in Block Leh. Interview respondents all discussed factors of

increasing climatic change. One of the highest occurring themes was water scarcity, with 71%

of respondents noting an increasing difficulty each year in accessing adequate amounts of water

for farming. A positive relationship was shown between observed decrease in snowfall and

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Figure 4.1 Temperature Paradox: Paradoxical Relationships between temperature, water scarcity and increased crop variety. A and B show regression analysis of percent of responses detailing observed temperature increase against increased crop variety and water scarcity respectively. Trend lines are plotted to show R2 values which are, for A: R2 = 0.79 and B: R2 = 0.20. Data from Phey village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly and did not fit the trend. C shows a series of percent of responses experienced phenomenon which are factors in the issue of this paradox plotted for floodplain, south facing and north facing villages.

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19

water scarcity as well as between glacier loss and water scarcity amongst all participants. This

could be explained in part by the fact that villagers source water for agricultural irrigation from

snow and ice meltwater streams and, as these decrease in seasonal discharge, much less water

reaches the fields that are undergoing cultivation.

Temperature increase has also contributed to glacier loss and snowfall decrease in the West

Himalayas, and in Ladakh it is also shown to have a potentially positive impact. Perceived

temperature increase has a positive relationship with increased crop variety which has allowed

both a greater quantity of traditional crops to be grown such as apples and apricots as well as

new crops such as wheat. However, there was a paradox related to this effects as, although

temperature increase was shown to account for 79% of increased crop variety responses, it was

also shown to account for 20% of water scarcity responses, as can be seen in Figure 4.1, which

makes cultivating any kind of crop significantly more challenging. Because of the widespread

and severe nature of water scarcity and irrigation difficulty, only villages situated on the Indus

River floodplain, where irrigation could be sourced directly from the Indus River, reported

successful yields from these new crops. This process was particularly worrying for Ladakhi

residents, as summarised in the statement:

“… temperature is totally rising which gives us advantages to sow these vegetables in varieties, but due to shortage of water, we are not able to … give any good agriculture

output.” (Interview 40, Nang)

BOX 4.1 Cloudbursts and Water Scarcity Long periods of inadequate water supplies causing water scarcity and short intensive periods of surplus water through cloudbursts can both have detrimental impacts on farming. Figure 4.2 shows how cloudbursts and resultant flash floods can cover agricultural land with sediment, making it unusable. Figure 4.3 gives an example of an irrigation channel which is no longer in use as there is too little water coming from the glacier in summer to feed it.

Figure 4.2 Flash flood damage in Nang village Figure 4.3 Dry channel in Phey village


20

Interviewees also noted significant increases in the instability of rainfall. Known locally as

‘cloudbursts’, extreme precipitation events causing flash floods have grown in frequency over

the last ten years (Theyyen, 2013). Analysis showed a significant relationship between these

cloudburst events and an inability to irrigate fields. A possible cause of this could be related to

infrastructural damage caused by flash floods and how they have damaged irrigation channels

and covered fields with several inches of rock and sediment, as is evident in Figure 4.2.

Interviewees expressed just how detrimental this was for crop yields:

“…everything wash away, the houses are filled with sand, soils and all and many lands become infertile, they lost their fertility … [the fields are] filled with debris, and it takes long

time to get back the same land.” (Interview 39, Nang)

4.1.2 Factors Affecting Village Vulnerability

This section aims to answer the second research objective through establishing what factors

affect villages’ vulnerability. Through comparing the percentage responses to each coding

theme of people in each of the eight villages alongside data available relating to the physical

landscape, it was clear that altitude and glacial area in each village’s unique watershed had a

significant impact on interview responses relating to village vulnerability.

Firstly, it was shown that glacial area accounted for 56% of the perceived snowfall decrease in

each village (Figure 4.4). South facing villages such as Umla and Nang, which rely mainly on

snowfall for meltwater, noted the highest percentage occurrence of the decrease in snowfall

theme at 50 and 100% respectively. However, in Stok village, which lies within a north facing

watershed containing the highest glacial area in this study of 3.33km2, only 20% of

interviewees noted a decrease in snowfall. Similarly, glacial area accounted for 62% of

perceived irrigation difficulty where Umla and Nang had the highest responses of 75 and 100%

respectively and in Stok, no interviewees noted difficulty in irrigation. It can be suggested from

these results that villages with less glacial area available to produce melt water within a

catchment have heightened vulnerability to the effects of snowfall decrease and ultimately have

a higher risk of experiencing irrigation difficulties. This is particularly evident on south facing

slopes which receive increased sunlight.

Another significant factor influencing vulnerability of each village is altitude. Villages at

higher altitude showed greater percentage of responses relating to cloudbursts.


21

Figure 4.4 Glaciated Area Vulnerability: Relationships between glaciated area, snowfall decrease and irrigation difficulty. A shows plotted snowfall decrease and irrigation difficulty responses, as well as average glaciated area, for north and south facing slopes. B shows regressions of both snowfall decrease and irrigation difficulty against glaciated area. Trend lines are plotted to show R2 values which are, for snowfall decrease and glaciated area: R2 = 0.56 and for irrigation difficulty and glaciated area: R2 = 0.62. Data from Sabu village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly and did not fit the trend.

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22

Figure 4.5 Altitude Vulnerability: Relationships between altitude, temperature increase, glacier loss and pest attacks. A shows graphs of interview responses in each village relating to temperature, glacier loss and pest attacks. Altitude is plotted in red. B shows regressions of temperature increase, glacier loss, pest attacks and cloudbursts against village altitude. Projected trend lines are plotted to show R2 values which are, for temperature increase and altitude: R2 = 0.38, for glacier loss and altitude: R2 = 0.40, for pest attacks and altitude: R2 = 0.32 and for cloudbursts and altitude: R2 = 0.51. Data from Shey village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly and did not fit the trend.

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23

Responses suggested that higher altitude and more remote villages such as Umla, which is the

highest village in the study area and lies at 3914m, use more traditional methods of construction

and irrigation so may be more susceptible to damage in times of flash flood. Lower altitude

agricultural areas may be more vulnerable to other factors of climate change. Temperature,

glacier loss and pest attacks on crops are all shown to increase in the lower altitudes of the

study area, as can be seen in Figure 4.5. The village of Shey which lies at 3240m on the Indus

floodplain exhibited 80% response for all temperature increase, glacier decrease and pest attack

amongst interviewees, as opposed to Umla which exhibited 25% response for both temperature

increase and pest attacks and 50% response for snowfall decrease. So it is clear that areas at

lower altitudes closer to 3000m around the Indus floodplain have greater vulnerability to issues

related to temperature increase whilst those at higher altitudes are more susceptible to extreme

precipitation events.

4.1.3 Perceptions of Agricultural Sustainability

This section aims to answer the fourth and fifth research objectives through determining the

perceived sustainability of agriculture and to what extent mitigation strategies can support this.

Of all the interview participants, many believed that farming practices in Ladakh were being

severely affected by climatic change and that there are many challenges associated with gaining

adequate crop yields in future. However, there are mitigation projects and government support

in place and these heavily influence the perceived sustainability of agriculture in Leh Block as

a whole.

Artificial glaciers were widely used throughout the study area, particularly in south facing

settlements where there are no longer natural glaciers to provide sustainable melt, as can be

seen in Figure 4.6 and 4.7. For the snowfall-reliant south facing settlements of Umla and Nang,

these proved to be very successful and residents suggested that more would enhance their

situation. Limitations surrounding artificial glaciers elsewhere outlined that, with increasing

temperatures, they might not provide water at the right time. This opinion is expressed by a

respondent:

“Because of this temperature rising, artificial glacier will melt very easily in a fast manner

which will come before the time and maybe it will not succeed.”

(Interview 36, Stok)


24

Gaining adequate skilled labour to maintain the artificial glaciers has also proven to be a

challenge, such as in the village of Saboo where a previous project has fallen beyond repair.

The government also provide support to farmers through supplying potato seeds and chemical

fertilisers. Interviewees reported high success of these schemes in irrigation-rich, warmer, low

altitude villages. However, concerns were reported at higher altitudes relating to the fact that

there is not enough water available to irrigate potatoes and that chemical fertilisers are

decreasing the soils’ long term fertility for those who can use them. Despite government

support, many respondents believed that the only way for farming in the area to continue amidst

rising temperatures is for artificial glacier methods to be sustained:

“…if artificial glacier and the ponds, if that thing works, it’s perfectly fine. But if it’s not, life

of agriculture is going to be difficult.”

(Interview 7, Umla)

Overall, 67% of all interviewees believed farming practices to be endangered in the long term,

while 33% believed farming could be sustainable. As shown in Figure 4.8, decreasing snowfall

has led to water scarcity and, where artificial glaciers are not effective, a decrease in crop

cultivation time. This has caused difficulties in irrigating crops which has ultimately lead to a

decrease in crop yields. The only significant relationship to the view that farming can be

BOX 4.2 Artificial Glaciers Frozen dams, known locally as ‘artificial glaciers’ were one of the most commonly used mitigation strategies in Leh Block. Particularly effective in the village of Nang, they are positioned in shallow v-shaped valleys adjacent to the main stream valley (Figure 4.6) and water was channelled into them via aqueducts constructed from soil (Figure 4.7). There were many advantages and disadvantages to this scheme which can be seen in Table 4.2.

Figure 4.6 Artificial glacier dams in Nang village Figure 4.7 Artificial glacier river aqueduct

Advantages of Artificial Glaciers Disadvantages of Artificial Glaciers Allows adequate growing season Enables villages to farm after complete loss of glacier Recharges ground water for springs Allows growth of fodder on irrigation channel banks

Inadequate skilled labour to perform maintenance Have fallen into disrepair on some villages Easily damaged by flash floods Rely on decreasing snowfall to be successful

Table 4.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of Artificial Glaciers


25

sustainable was an increase in temperature. This is possibly a result which reflects the paradox

of rising temperatures increasing the variety of crops which can be produced, yet irrigation

being too inadequate to support their production.

4.2 Questionnaires

4.2.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

Questionnaire responses detailed themes relating to the first research objective. Results

confirmed that climatic changes were being felt by the majority of the sample with 67% of

respondents noting an increase in temperature. It was shown that people who worked in the

agriculture industry responded in greater numbers to these factors of climate change, as is

shown in Figure 4.9, with 100% noting all cloudbursts, snowfall decrease and glacier loss. As

these three factors were shown in interview analysis to all contribute to irrigation difficulties,

questionnaire results confirm that there is a large risk of water scarcity within the study area.

This viewpoint was backed up by a respondent who also references issues with mitigation

strategies:

“Water scarcity is the biggest problem. Traditionally water was sourced from the snowfall

fed glaciers. Nowadays snowfall is less and rainfall is more, yet there is no significant shift

towards rainwater harvesting.”

(Questionnaire Respondent)

Farmingisendangered

Decreaseinsnowfall(p=0.038)

Waterscarcity(p=0.003)

Decreaseincropyields

(p=0.021)

Inabilitytoirrigate(p=0.002)

Decreaseincropcultivationtime

(p=0.020)

Farmingcanbesustainable

Increaseintemperature(p=0.018)

Figure 4.8 Factors Affecting Perceived Sustainability: Significant factors affecting A: perception that farming is endangered and B: perception that farming is sustainable. X2 p values are shown alongside each factor which were calculated to one degree of freedom.

A B


26

4.2.2 Response to observed climate change

In order to address the question of agricultural sustainability, the current responses to climatic

change described amongst Leh Block residents were investigated. The main responses noted

were a change in occupation and the use of mitigation strategies. An increase in rainfall and

loss of glaciers were shown to have a relationship with occupation changes. This mirrors

interview data which suggests that, due to a loss of glaciers and resultant meltwater decrease,

agriculture is no longer possible and other forms of employment are sought. Questionnaires

also showed a relationship between temperature increase and receiving support from the

government with the use of mitigation strategies. As an increase in temperature was shown to

contribute to irrigation difficulties through interviews, here it is shown that this is a likely factor

in villages setting up mitigations strategies such as artificial glaciers. A full list of significant

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Figure 4.9 Adverse Agricultural Impact: Graph showing questionnaire respondents’ observations of climatic phenomenon. Percentage for all respondents are shown alongside agricultural responses.

Climate Change Observations Responses to Observed Climatic Change

Theme Significantly Related Theme Theme Significantly Related Theme

Increase in rainfall Flash floods/cloudbursts (p = 0.001) Change occupation Increase in rainfall (p = 0.031)

Increase in temperature (p = 0.024) Loss of glaciers (p = 0.011)

Decrease in snowfall (p = 0.041) Use mitigation strategies Increase in temperature (p = 0.026)

Government support (p = 0.024) Loss of glaciers (p = 0.012)

Loss of glaciers Flash floods/cloudbursts (p = 0.003)

Increase in temperature (p = 0.026)

Decrease in snowfall (p = 0.002)

Table 4.3 Significant factors affecting variables of climate change observations as well as responses to observed climate change. X2 results shown as p values.


27

factors affecting observations and responses can be seen in Table 4.3. It also suggests that

government support is an important factor in establishing such projects.

4.3 Participant Observation

4.3.1 Farming practices response to environmental change

Here it is hoped to address the first and second research objectives. Observations of agricultural

sites showed varying levels of irrigation availability throughout the field area. Villages such as

Phey which are situated on the Indus Flood Plain have access to spring water. This is shared

between each household through rotational irrigation methods and no serious irrigation

shortages were observed. However, all stream water in the area was either used for irrigation

or stored in ponds for later use meaning that very little was un-utilised. Even slight decreases

in water availability in Phey in future could restrict the amount of land used for agriculture. A

decrease in available water is already evident as farmers pointed out one stream in Phey that

had been used in the past but had been dry for the past two seasons suggesting that this could

happen more in future, as can be seen in Figure 4.3. Conversely high altitude and south facing

villages such as Umla are currently facing severe difficulties in sourcing water for irrigation.

It was found that Ladakhi farmers will begin irrigation each year close to the 21st June which

is when glaciers begin to melt. In 2016 residents of Umla had a village meeting on the 22nd

July where it was decided to harvest their crops early because they had run out of water. This

decision had both an adverse impact on their own families because this short optimum growing

season allowed very little growth, and also on the small scale trading they can do with their

crops as the yields were expected to be too low to generate profit.

4.3.2 Government and Non Government Organisations (NGO) support for sustainability

It is clear that in Ladakh, any possible solutions that can make farming sustainable in future

are conditional on support from the government and local NGOs. This comes in the form of

mitigation strategies as well as through supplements and chemicals to aid farming. Through

considering this, the fourth and fifth research objectives can be addressed.

Through working with farmers, it became evident that, in some areas, there was distrust of the

government and there appeared to be no belief that they would provide any kind of constructive

support. Whilst the government had set up a large scale irrigation canal, it lay several

kilometres to the south east of the field area so was not noted by any respondents. One small

scale government project in the field area was a pumping of river water from the Indus to

nearby farms and this was perceived as very supportive to the local Phey community. There


28

was a very high regard for NGOs such as LEHO and the LNP amongst remote villages such as

Umla where villagers reported significant increases in irrigation water available due to

mitigation projects set up by these NGOs. It appeared that government departments and NGOs

have all done varying levels of work to set up projects that could increase the sustainability of

agricultural practices. However, there is very little integration between these departments and

organisations meaning that the data regarding villages’ needs and engineering processes is not

shared externally. While the NGOs appeared to take high levels of responsibility for the

impacts of climate change, the government officials seemed to see it as being too large an issue

to consider as a regional problem and did not take overall responsibility. Overall, the main

factors supporting a view that farming can be sustainable in future related to successful

implementation of mitigation projects such as artificial glaciers and water reservoirs.

The results presented in this chapter have many links with wider literature and can offer much

content for discussion which will be undertaken in the following chapter.


29

5 Discussion: TEK and Global Climate Change This chapter aims to firstly link this study’s findings of TEK to scientific knowledge for

Ladakh. Following this, findings will be compared to literature detailing both climate change

in Ladakh and as a global phenomenon.

5.1 Ladakh Academic Knowledge

5.1.1 Traditional Ecological Knowledge

This section aims to answer the third research objective relating to the links between TEK and

scientific knowledge. TEK in Leh Block clearly mirrored scientific data on temperature

increase. Respondents noted significant warming in their lifetime and, when elders of the

communities were younger, temperatures were much cooler. They stated:

“temperature is rising day by day”, (Interview 43, Nang)

“winter time is not as cold as it used to be in the past”.

(Interview 4, Leh)

This same change can be seen in the data and projection from Shekhar et al. (2010) and

Bhutiyani et al. (2007) which summarises several data sets to suggest that temperatures in the

beginning of the twentieth century were over 2oC cooler and began to warm after ~ 1980. This

trend is also shown by a respondent whose observations support Shekhar’s et al. temporal trend

of a 267cm/year decrease in snowfall over the turn of the century:

“… the temperature is increased and like ten, fifteen years ago, they used to see, like, really high snowfall, like inches, they couldn’t walk. So now, it’s been like ten to fifteen years, they

never saw snowfall like that.” (Interview 11, Sabu)

Data relating to glacial mass balance was also regularly discussed throughout the investigation.

Schmidt and Nüsser’s (2010) study showed over a 14% decrease in glaciated area over the last

fifty years and respondents were in strong agreement with this trend as they stated that:

“the glaciers … used to be very high, [now] they are getting very low because they are melting year by year”,

(Interview 16, Shey)

5. Discussion: TEK and Global Climate Change

30

“… [the glaciers are] decreasing at rapid speed”. (Interview 12, Sabu)

However, little further detail was given by this study regarding particular glacial areas or

distances of recession. Due to the limited data available beyond Schmidt and Nüsser’s study,

perspectives of residents who have lived in Leh Block since birth and are very familiar with

the landscape’s response to temperature change could help estimate future glacier loss to

projected trend of temperature increase. One such resident, aged seventy, responded stating:

“rise in temperature will affect this glacier and it will melt quickly and, after … two decades, the glacier will be lost.”

(Interview 36, Stok)

With regards to rainfall, TEK within this study provided data regarding location and economic

impacts of cloudbursts but little reliable information regarding intensity and duration.

5.1.2 Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

This investigation backs up Angmo and Mishra’s (2009) work, suggesting that water scarcity

is causing irrigation difficulties. However, they suggest that within Leh District, some villages

reported an increase in water availability which was not found in this investigation of Block

Leh as all respondents noted a decrease in stream water. It was also stated that the maximum

altitude at which apples can grow has now moved to higher altitudes of 3600m, which was

confirmed in this study where no apple trees were found at higher altitudes. It was found that

many more crops including apricots could also follow this trend. Meena et al. (2015) detail that

for the Leh District, the annual growing period from 2000 – 2013 was between April and

September. This study found that this timescale was not representative of communities lying

on south facing slopes at altitudes above 3500m where their optimal growing season in 2016

was as short as two months between June and July. It is clear that these results differ

considerably and further supports the view of Meena et al. that a crop-weather model for the

Leh region would offer great benefit if developed.

Nüsser et al. (2011), in their study of agricultural land use change in the Leh area of the Indus

basin, present a 19% decrease in irrigated field areas in Stok village between 1969 and 2006.

Whilst they coherently tie this change to socio-economic factors such as shifts in employment

availability and loss of strength of agricultural industry, their results are heavily based around


31

irrigation difficulties. As this study has shown a significant link between climate change, water

scarcity and agricultural sustainability, it is possible that climate change could be considered

another significant factor in this land use change between 1969 and 2006.

On consideration of sustainability of agriculture in the region and reliance of farms on the

success of mitigation projects such as artificial glaciers, Daultrey and Gergan (2011) provide

an insight through suggesting success of these strategies is influenced by leadership, trust and

community size. In Leh Block, many villages such as Umla and Nang that were small enough

to learn and plan quickly were able to implement these strategies but larger communities that

are not so reliant on agriculture may not find such easy success. Whilst these factors come

together in Ladakh to create successful mitigation schemes, it is evident that more than these

factors contribute to the sustainability of agriculture. As noted by respondents in this study,

even if all villages created functioning artificial glaciers, warming temperatures might inhibit

their success. Therefore, this mitigation strategy alone cannot guarantee sustainable farming in

future and more investigation into agricultural sustainability in Ladakh would be valued by the

local farming community.

5.1.3 Sustainability and Adaptability

Through considering Wackernagel and Rees’ (1962) definition of sustainability as an ability

“to live equitably within the means of nature”, it can be considered how significant the belief

of the majority of respondents that farming is endangered is. As soon as any village within the

Leh Block area turned from being able to cultivate crops with natural resources alone to

needing human-made mitigation projects to do so, farming no longer existed within the means

of nature. Many respondents, especially in villages like Nang and Umla where there are no

glaciers anymore, believe that adaptations and mitigation projects might not work in coming

years as snowmelt will not provide adequate stream water. RSCs are relying more and more

on government and NGO support in Ladakh, and the natural landscape as a whole is no longer

widely supportive of agriculture. Because of this, it is clear that in these locations, farming is

not sustainable according to Wackernagel and Rees’ definition. If agricultural practices are

continued in future, they may only be sustainable, from an environmental perspective, when

supported by human intervention such as providing and maintaining enhanced designs of

artificial glaciers and further adaptations to the changing physical environment.


32

5.2 Wider Implications

Taking the concepts explored within this research further, many connections can be made with

awareness and policy throughout the world. While local awareness and responses were detailed

in Chapter 4, ‘Results’, many emerging points can be considered at a global level.

5.2.1 Climate Change and Remote Subsistence Communities

On comparing results of this study and previous work in Ladakh with similar research into the

impact of climate change on remote subsistence communities throughout the Himalayas and

the world, it can be seen that there are many common themes as well as disparities between

different countries. Through comparison with villages in Tibet, it can be seen that the trend of

a decrease in observed temperature increase and increasing rainfall with higher altitudes is

evident throughout the Himalayas (Byg and Salick, 2009). However, results contradict Byg

and Salick’s noted stream discharge and glacier increase with altitude. This could have possible

links between the Indus River catchment and the mixture of north and south facing slope

settlements in this study area. Through this it could be argued that altitude and watershed, as

discussed in this study, could have greater influences on the agricultural sustainability of a

village than geographical and political boundaries.

5.2.2 Global Policy and Awareness

There are many large scale publications that detail the impacts of climate change on agriculture

and related processes in mountain areas by organisations such as the Intergovernmental Panel

of Climate Change (IPCC), the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and

the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL). Many similarities and anomalies

can be seen when Ladakhi results are compared to the global trend. Findings relating to

observed impacts, such as accentuated temperature increase at lower altitudes and water

scarcity, are noted by the IPCC (Porter et al., 2014), SDC (Nau, 2009; Viviroli and Messerli,

2009) and CISL (Cameron, 2014). However, whilst these publications detail how there can be

positive impacts of temperature increase in some areas through increase in crop variety and

negative impacts in other areas through water scarcity, it could be added that both of these can

be felt in the same areas through the water scarcity paradox which requires a sensitive response.

There is therefore clear need for further discussion regarding sustainability of agriculture

within these publications. It is proposed that the implementation of mitigation strategies will

reduce the risks of climate change to agriculture by Cameron (2014) and Porter et al. (2014),

however it is rarely mentioned how these mitigation strategies themselves are being affected


33

by climate change. For Ladakh, the future of agriculture relies mainly on mitigation strategies

and many developments are needed as there are flaws with the current systems. Therefore, for

Ladakh to be fully represented by these globally focused publications, more consideration

could be given to the sustainability of natural resource-reliant mitigation schemes.

5.2.3 Climate Change Refugees

There is further issue discussed within global policy literature which could be applied to

Ladakh. De Shalit (2011) argues that, due to impacts of climate change, people may suffer

environmental displacement and be forced to move to urban areas of a country or travel

internationally and become climate change refugees. This study has shown that climate change

has become one of many clear push-factors influencing migration away from RSCs in the West

Himalaya region. This could drive large numbers of people to the region’s capital of Leh or

away from Ladakh altogether, to large population centres such as New Delhi which are already

experiencing serious pressures of overpopulation and poverty and are not prepared for high

levels of migration to areas within the city. With Leh District, in which the study area of Leh

Block is situated, having agricultural labourers and cultivators making up 30% of its workforce

totalling 22,514 people (Directorate of Census Operations – Jammu and Kashmir, 2011), this

could have large consequences in terms of population influx for cities such as New Delhi.

This could also have global consequences in terms of international migration. Lister (2014)

suggests that, as ‘refugees’ are defined by the 1951 Refugee Convention as people forced to

find refuge in another country due to “external aggression, foreign domination, or events

seriously disrupting public order” (Rankin, 2005), those displaced due to environmental

changes may not be considered refugees in global policy. However, as 66% of respondents in

this study believed farming to endangered, it is possible that people in West Himalaya

agricultural communities could face becoming climate change refugees in future. As discussed

by Caney (2005) and Moore (2008), it is essential to take global responsibility for these issues

and to set up infrastructures that can support those who have been adversely affected by the

impacts of climate change. This supports the argument made by Lister (2014) that those

moving due to the effects of climate change should be viewed as ‘refugees’ and offered the

same international support as those who currently fit the 1951 Refugee Convention definition.


34

5.2.4 Integrated Management and Research Impact

To implement the factors present in global policy awareness and to mitigate the issue of climate

change refugees on a local level, clear communication is essential between all government

departments and NGOs involved. Salick and Byg (2007) describe how this global response

needs to be correctly informed to allow the most appropriate support to be delivered. Yet, this

study found that, with funding coming from both international donors such as Save the

Children (LNP, 2016) and from the Indian Government (LEDeG, 2016) to different projects,

there has been insufficient collaborative thinking and an overall lack of communication in the

study area. Through establishing more common ground between governments and NGOs that

serve RSCs, more information may be able to be shared detailing community vulnerability and

factors that affect the success of mitigation projects. This would allow responses to the negative

impacts climate change to be standardised throughout a given region.

Research conducted in remote locations overseas has a huge potential to inform the responses

of governments and NGOs although it is often held only within academia and never seen by

decision makers in the regions in which it was conducted. As discussed by Winser (2004), it is

of great importance to work with the communities in which research has been undertaken to

disseminate results and implement recommendations. In terms of the impact of climate change

on RSCs, Winser’s approach could allow a greater understanding of timescales and areas of

heightened vulnerability to be fed into integrated management schemes. Overall, dissemination

of research relating to climate change within a project’s study area, particularly that of

interdisciplinary research, could allow the research to have a much more valuable impact and

help contribute to mitigating against the negative effects of climate change such as those that

have been presented in this study.


35

6 Conclusion 6.1 Research Question: Summary of Findings

This study aimed to investigate how sustainable local residents of Block Leh, Ladakh believe

agricultural practices to be in light of current and projected climate change. Results show that

people in the study area believe farming to be significantly impacted by the effects of climate

change and that overall, it is endangered. The research objectives were answered as follows:

• 1. Identify the extent to which climate change is experienced in Block Leh: The

observed impacts of climate change in the study area were an increase in

temperature, leading to a decrease in snowfall and glacier loss. This caused water

scarcity and difficulties in irrigating crops which were the main statistically

significant reasons people believed farming to be endangered.

• 2. Establish factors affecting the vulnerability of communities in Ladakh to

climate change:

o Altitude: High altitude villages (3900m) were more vulnerable to flash

floods and villages and low altitude villages (3200m) were more vulnerable

to temperature increase, impacts of glacier loss and pest attacks.

o Watershed: Low vulnerability was reported on the Indus Valley floodplain,

where plentiful irrigation is sourced from the river, and on north facing

slopes, where there are high glacial areas. Highest levels of vulnerability

were shown in villages on south facing slopes where glacial area was much

smaller.

• 3. Identify to what extent traditional ecological knowledge relates to scientific

knowledge: Trends produced in scientific literature showing timescales of

temperature increase, snowfall decrease, glacier loss and rainfall instability were

confirmed by TEK of respondents. It was also shown that TEK added new

perspectives to the study of climate change not noted in scientific investigations.

• 4. Establish how successful and sustainable operational mitigation strategies are:

Artificial glaciers were successful when situated high enough to freeze in winter

and when receiving adequate adequate water supply in autumn. In some areas these

were not sustainable due to lack of skilled labour, where temperatures were too high

to allow freeing and where there was flood damage. NGOs are relied on to

implement these.

6. Conclusion

36

• 5. Given predicted future temperature increase in Ladakh, establish how

sustainable farming practices are believed to be: Farming is believed to be

endangered due to snowfall decrease, water scarcity, crop yield decrease, inability

to irrigate and decrease in crop cultivation time. The only factor to influence a belief

that farming is sustainable, by allowing further crops to be introduced, was

temperature increase. As scientific literature suggests an increase in these factors in

future, it is uncertain if mitigation strategies will be enough to sustain agriculture in

Ladakh.

6.2 Limitations

The data collection of this project could have been improved in many ways. It is outlined here

what steps could be taken in future to ensure better data collection:

• Translators: Several translators were used, meaning that different levels of

interpretation were given leading to interview data being less reliably consistent. This

could be improved by working with one translator for the duration of the project.

Higher levels of fluency in Ladakhi of the researcher would ensure higher accuracy

and consistency of data collection.

• Access: Due to relying on public transport to gain access, there was an uneven amount

of interviews conducted in each village and watershed category which rendered the

resulting data less reliably representative. This could be improved by planning each

village visit in advance through considering comparisons that aimed to be made

between different village categories and staying in each village, in accommodation or

tent, until an interview target has been reached.

• Lack of standardisation: Marginal standardisation between interviews,

questionnaires and participant observations caused difficulty in triangulating between

each technique. Highly standardised interview schedules proved to be highly effective

in statistical analysis and comparison in this study so better data could be gained if this

approach was extended to encompass each other data gathering technique as well.

• Duration of fieldwork: During the 4-week expedition, many leads and contacts could

not be utilised and there was little time to reflect on data collected and inform next

steps for data gathering. This meant that potential avenues for research may have been

overlooked. This could be improved by completing a research methodology by early

January to give more opportunity to gain funding that would allow longer in the field


37

and the ability to conduct research for the entirety of the summer crop cultivation

season.

6.3 Opportunities for Further Investigation and Dissemination

Through exploring this niche of perception-based research in Ladakh, focusing on TEK and

the interactions between human and physical landscapes, it is clear that further study of these

processes could enhance global understandings of the immediacy and severity of climate

change to RSCs and offer valuable material for public outreach. Possible avenues for future

investigation are outlined below:

• TEK in mountain regions: Further studies could be conducted that draw on TEK from

RSCs in mountain areas and that analyse this data alongside scientific knowledge. This

could create a greater understanding of the challenges facing people in these areas and

offer suggestions of the most deserving projects of global investment that could

mitigate the effects of climate change.

• Snowline and temperature projections: As it has been shown by Viviroli and Messerli

(2009), a 1oC rise in global temperature causes snowlines to rise by 150m. Localised

studies of this phenomenon in areas like Ladakh could allow projections to be made to

estimate the time remaining in which agriculture will be possible in each watershed.

This would enable governments to set up appropriate infrastructures for the resultant

rural-urban migrations that could occur.

• Local outreach: During this fieldwork it was discovered that, despite much research

being conducted in Ladakh before, the local governments and NGOs were not able to

access final analysis of the data collected. There would be great value in adding local

dissemination phases within study areas of future projects to allow researchers to work

with government departments and NGOs to act upon their findings.

• Global outreach: As stated by Philo and Happer (2013), communicated effectively,

climate change outreach can change the opinions of members of the public and

government to make small steps towards mitigating against global climate change.

Research within the niche explored through this project has potential to make large

positive impacts if communicated in this way.

References

38

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Ladakh Interview Schedule

1. Interviewee1: a. How long have you lived in the Leh area?

b. What is your job?

2. Climate change in Ladakh: a. Have you noted significant changes in weather over the time you have lived in

Ladakh? PROMPT: rainfall, snowfall, seasonal timings, temperature2

b. What impact are these changes having on the local area?

3. Impact on agriculture: a. Does this [2a answer or warming climate and loss of glaciers]3 impact the ability of

farms in Leh to produce enough food?

b. Do farming practices in Leh have the ability to adapt to resultant low crop yields?

4. Mitigation strategies: a. Do farms here use mitigation strategies such as artificial glaciers?

b. Do these successfully make up for adverse impact on farming [3a answer or inability of land to sustain farming after meltwater river loss and flash floods]3?

5. Future sustainability:

a. Discuss: population increase in Leh and expected future temperature and weather instability.

b. Do you think that farming in Leh - given current mitigation strategies – is sustainable for future decades?

1 Interviewee: This section will be used to obtain information on how long the interviewee’s knowledge of Ladakh spans. Farmers might only know it from their own experience but NGO and Government workers may have a longer time span of knowledge. 2 Prompt: This will be used to guide interviewee to discuss the impacts of climate and contextualise climate change in their own experiences. Reference to Leh 2010 floods and instances of disappearing glaciers and melt water streams. Here the subject of ‘climate change’ will be discussed to make sure interviewer and interviewee are on the same page. 3 Reference to previous answer: Previous answers will be used to ask further questions only if the interviewee has answered the question with an appropriate indicator or climate change and its impact. If not, future questions will be asked in relation to separate case studies in Ladakh.

Appendix 1 – Interview Schedule

43

Ladakh Research 2016

Formal Interview List

No. Date Interviewee Village Location

1 17/07 LEDeG worker Choglamsar LEDeG office 2 17/07 Tour company manager Leh Tour Company office 3 18/07 LNP manager Leh LNP office 4 19/07 Chewang Norphel Leh Household 5 21/07 District Hortoculture Officer Leh Government office 6 22/07 Farmer Umla Household 7 22/07 Village focus group

(town meeting) Umla Village centre

8 22/07 Head of village Umla Medical centre 9 22/07 Greenhouse user Umla Garden

10 24/07 Farmer Sabu Roadside 11 24/07 Farmer Sabu Household 12 24/07 Farmer Sabu Household 13 24/07 Farmer Sabu Field 14 24/07 Farmer Sabu Household 15 25/07 Farmer Shey Household 16 25/07 Farmer Shey Household 17 25/07 Farmer Shey Household 18 25/07 Farmer Shey Garden 19 25/07 Farmer Shey Household 20 27/07 Farmer Phey Household 21 28/07 Farmer Phey Household 22 29/07 Mitigation project worker Leh Restaurant 23 30/07 Farmer Ganglas, Leh Household 24 30/07 Farmer Ganglas, Leh Garden 25 30/07 Farmer Gangles, Leh Garden 26 30/07 Farmer Ganglas, Leh Garden 27 30/07 Farmer Ganglas, Leh Garden 28 30/07 Village focus group

(friends gathering) Ganglas, Leh Prayer wheel

29 30/07 Farmer Ganglas, Leh Household 30 30/07 Farmer Skara, Leh Garden 31 30/07 Farmer Skara, Leh Garden 32 30/07 Farmer Skara, Leh Household 33 30/07 Agricultural specialist Choglamsar Household 34 01/08 Farmer Stok Household 35 01/08 Farmer Stok Household 36 01/08 Farmer Stok Garden 37 01/08 Farmer Stok Garden 38 01/08 Farmer Stok Garden 39 02/08 Farmer Nang Roadside 40 02/08 Farmer Nang Garden 41 02/08 Farmer Nang Field 42 02/08 Village Focus Group

(local farmers) Nang Irrigation channel

construction site 43 02/08 Farmer Nang Shaded area 44 04/08 Superintended of Public

Works Department Leh Government office

45 04/08 District Agricultural Officer Leh Government office 46 04/08 Farmer Phyang Household 47 04/08 Farmer Phyang Household

Appendix 2 – List of Interviews

Appendix 3 - Coded Transcript

47

Inte

rvie

w L

ink

Mat

rix

A.

Clim

ate

Inst

abili

ty

Obs

erva

tions

Im

pact

s M

itiga

tions

IN

T A

11

A12

A

13

A14

A

15

A16

A

21

A22

A

23

A24

A

25

A26

A

27

A28

A

29

A31

A

32

A33

1-

1707

/Cho

g X

X

X

X

X

X

X

2-17

07/L

eh

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

3-

1807

/Leh

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

4-19

07/L

eh

X

X

X

X

X

5-

2107

/Leh

6-

2207

/Um

la(1

)

7-

2207

/Um

la(2

) X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

8-22

07/U

mla

(3)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

9-22

07/U

mla

(4)

X

X

X

X

10-2

407/

Sabu

(1)

X

X

X

X

11-2

407/

Sabu

(2)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

12

-240

7/Sa

bu(3

) X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

13-2

407/

Sabu

(4)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

14

-240

7/Sa

bu(5

) X

X

X

X

15

-250

7/Sh

ey(1

)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

16

-250

7/Sh

ey(2

) X

X

X

X

X

X

X

17-2

507/

Shey

(3)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

18

-250

7/Sh

ey(4

) X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

19-2

507/

Shey

(5)

X

X

X

X

X

20

-270

7/Ph

ey

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

21

-280

7/Ph

ey

X

X

X

X

X

22

-290

7/Le

h X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

23

-300

7/Le

h(1)

X

X

X

24-3

007/

Leh(

2)

X

X

X

X

X

25

-300

7/Le

h(3)

X

X

X

X

X

X

26

-300

7/Le

h(4)

X

X

X

X

X

X

27

-300

7/Le

h(5)

X

X

X

28-3

007/

Leh(

6)

X

X

X

X

X

App

endi

x 4

– C

odin

g T

hem

e M

atri

x

48

29-3

007/

Leh(

7)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

IN

T A

11

A12

A

13

A14

A

15

A16

A

21

A22

A

23

A24

A

25

A26

A

27

A28

A

29

A31

A

32

A33

30

-300

7/Le

h(8)

X

X

X

X

31

-300

7/Le

h(9)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

32-3

007/

Leh(

10)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

33

-300

7/C

hog

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

34-0

108/

Stok

(1)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

35-0

108/

Stok

(2)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

36

-010

8/St

ok(3

)

X

X

X

X

X

X

37

-010

8/St

ok(4

) X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

38

-010

8/St

ok(5

) X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

39

-020

8/N

ang(

1)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

40

-020

8/N

ang(

2)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

41-0

208/

Nan

g(3)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

42

-020

8/N

ang(

4)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

43-0

208/

Nan

g(5)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

44-0

408/

Leh

X

X

X

X

X

X

45-0

408/

Leh

X

X

X

X

X

46

-040

8/Ph

ya(1

) X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

47

/040

8/Ph

ya(2

) X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

49

B

. Su

stai

nabi

lity

of A

gric

ultu

re

Perc

eptio

ns

Influ

enci

ng F

acto

rs

IN

T B

11

B12

B

13

B14

B

21

B22

B

23

B24

B

25

1-17

07/C

hog

X

X

X

X

X

2-17

07/L

eh

X

X

X

X

X

3-18

07/L

eh

X

X

4-

1907

/Leh

X

X

X

X

X

5-

2107

/Leh

6-22

07/U

mla

(1)

7-

2207

/Um

la(2

) X

X

X

X

X

8-

2207

/Um

la(3

) X

X

X

X

X

X

9-22

07/U

mla

(4)

X

X

10

-240

7/Sa

bu(1

) X

X

X

X

11-2

407/

Sabu

(2)

X

X

X

X

X

X

12

-240

7/Sa

bu(3

) X

X

X

X

X

13

-240

7/Sa

bu(4

) X

X

X

X

X

14

-240

7/Sa

bu(5

)

X

X

X

15

-250

7/Sh

ey(1

) X

X

16-2

507/

Shey

(2)

X

X

17

-250

7/Sh

ey(3

)

X

X

X

X

X

18

-250

7/Sh

ey(4

) X

X

X

19

-250

7/Sh

ey(5

) X

20

-270

7/Ph

ey

X

X

X

X

X

21-2

807/

Phey

X

X

22-2

907/

Leh

X

X

X

X

23

-300

7/Le

h(1)

X

X

24-3

007/

Leh(

2)

X

X

X

25-3

007/

Leh(

3)

X

X

26

-300

7/Le

h(4)

X

X

27-3

007/

Leh(

5)

X

X

28

-300

7/Le

h(6)

X

X

X

29-3

007/

Leh(

7)

X

X

X

X

30

-300

7/Le

h(8)

X

X

X

31

-300

7/Le

h(9)

X

X

X

X

X

IN

T B

11

B12

B

13

B14

B

21

B22

B

23

B24

B

25

32-3

007/

Leh(

10)

X

X

X

X

X

33-3

007/

Cho

g X

X

X

X

X

X

X

34

-010

8/St

ok(1

) X

X

X

35

-010

8/St

ok(2

)

36-0

108/

Stok

(3)

X

X

X

X

37

-010

8/St

ok(4

) X

X

X

38

-010

8/St

ok(5

) X

X

39-0

208/

Nan

g(1)

X

X

40-0

208/

Nan

g(2)

X

X

X

X

41-0

208/

Nan

g(3)

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

42

-020

8/N

ang(

4)

X

X

X

X

X

X

43

-020

8/N

ang(

5)

X

X

X

44-0

408/

Leh

X

45-0

408/

Leh

X

X

X

46-0

408/

Phya

(1)

X

X

X

X

X

47/0

408/

Phya

(2)

X

X

X

X

X

50

C

. Ex

tern

al In

fluen

cing

Fac

tors

C

omm

unity

Iss

ues

Reg

iona

l Iss

ues

INT

C11

C

12

C13

C

14

C15

C

21

C22

C

23

1-17

07/C

hog

X

X

X

2-

1707

/Leh

X

X

X

3-18

07/L

eh

X

X

4-19

07/L

eh

5-21

07/L

eh

6-22

07/U

mla

(1)

7-22

07/U

mla

(2)

8-22

07/U

mla

(3)

X

X

X

X

X

X

9-22

07/U

mla

(4)

X

10

-240

7/Sa

bu(1

)

X

X

X

11-2

407/

Sabu

(2)

X

X

X

X

X

12

-240

7/Sa

bu(3

)

X

X

X

X

13

-240

7/Sa

bu(4

)

X

X

14

-240

7/Sa

bu(5

)

X

15-2

507/

Shey

(1)

X

X

X

X

16-2

507/

Shey

(2)

X

17

-250

7/Sh

ey(3

)

18

-250

7/Sh

ey(4

)

X

19-2

507/

Shey

(5)

X

X

20-2

707/

Phey

21

-280

7/Ph

ey

22-2

907/

Leh

X

23

-300

7/Le

h(1)

X

X

24

-300

7/Le

h(2)

X

X

25-3

007/

Leh(

3)

X

X

26-3

007/

Leh(

4)

X

27

-300

7/Le

h(5)

28

-300

7/Le

h(6)

X

X

29

-300

7/Le

h(7)

X

X

X

X

X

30-3

007/

Leh(

8)

X

X

31-3

007/

Leh(

9)

X

32

-300

7/Le

h(10

)

X

X

X

INT

C11

C

12

C13

C

14

C15

C

21

C22

C

23

33-3

007/

Cho

g X

X

X

X

34

-010

8/St

ok(1

) X

X

X

X

X

X

35

-010

8/St

ok(2

)

X

X

X

36-0

108/

Stok

(3)

37-0

108/

Stok

(4)

X

X

X

X

X

38

-010

8/St

ok(5

) X

X

X

X

X

39-0

208/

Nan

g(1)

40

-020

8/N

ang(

2)

X

X

41-0

208/

Nan

g(3)

X

X

42

-020

8/N

ang(

4)

X

43

-020

8/N

ang(

5)

X

X

X

44

-040

8/Le

h

X

X

45

-040

8/Le

h

46

-040

8/Ph

ya(1

)

X

X

X

47/0

408/

Phya

(2)

X

51

Impact of climate change in Leh, Ladakh

Questionnaire

1. Gender Male £ Female £

2. Age Group

19 and under £ 20 – 29 £ 30 – 39 £ 40 – 49 £ 50 and over £

3. Employment

Agriculture £ Education £ Government £ Health care £ Retail £ Student £ Tourism £ Other £ Please state: __________________________________

4. Have you noticed any impacts of climate change while living in Leh?

Crop failure £ Drought £ Flash floods or cloudbursts £ Increase in rainfall £ Increase in temperature £ Loss of glaciers £ No change £ Other £ Please state: __________________________________

5. How have you responded to these impacts?

No response £ Leave the area £ Modify behaviour £ e.g. grow different crops/modify home Change occupation £ Use mitigation strategies available £ e.g. artificial glacier/irrigation Receive government support £ Other £ Please state: __________________________________

Other comments:

Appendix 5 – Questionnaire

52

Impact of climate instability on local agricultural practices in the Leh region of

Ladakh, India

Information Sheet for Participant Research into the impact of climate change on individuals and agricultural organisations in Leh, Ladakh will be carried out during the months of July and August, 2016. This research project will be carried out by Cameron Mackay, an undergraduate student of Geography from the University of Glasgow. The main aim/objectives are:

1. To conduct interviews and focus groups with local residents to assess how climate change is impacting agricultural practices in Ladakh

2. Document through film the story and findings of the research What will taking part in the research involve? Taking part in this research will involve any or all of the activities listed below:

- Completing a questionnaire: answering simple short list of written yes/no questions - Participating in a one-to-one interview: answering conversational questions asked by researcher - Participating in filming: allowing the above activities to be filmed for public use

With permission, tape-recorders may be used to ensure accuracy in recording information. What will happen to the information? Information used for the research will be completely anonymous, unless participants agree to being filmed. This research will be completed by 06/08/2016 and will be submitted as a graded ‘dissertation’ to the School of Geographical and Earth Sciences at the University of Glasgow. This research will also be developed into public articles, talks and films to be shared in Ladakh and in the UK. What are my rights? You have the right to withdraw from this research at any time, without giving any reason. Your participation is entirely voluntary. What if I have any questions? For any further information contact: Mr Cameron Mackay Dr Jim Hansom Geagraphy Student Research Advisor [email protected] [email protected] This project has been approved by the GES Ethics Committee at the University of Glasgow Cameron Mackay - 04/06/2016

Appendix 6 – Information Sheet

53

Impact of climate instability on local agricultural practices in the Leh region of Ladakh, India

Consent Form

I would be grateful for your consent to take part in this research project. Information used is subject to you giving your permission with this consent form. Please tick For research only I have read and understood the Information Sheet, o I grant my permission to take part in the research project, o I understand a tape recorder may be used, o I understand the information to be collected will be safely stored, o I understand I can withdraw at any time, o I understand my contribution will be anonymous. o Signed: _________________________ Date: _____________ Contact details: ___________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________

Appendix 7 – Consent Form

dissertation cm - climate change and argiculture in west himalayas (low res)

Documents