disruptive technologies and demand risk - iaia18conferences.iaia.org/2017/uploads/presentations/iaia...

Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment

Engelsk mal: Startside Alternativ 2

Norwegian Ministryof Climate and Environment

Disruptive technologies and demand riskTerje Kronen, Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment

IAIA Montreal, 7th April 2017


Engelsk mal: Tekst uten kulepunkter

Norway: Renewable power, exporting oil & gas

2

• 98% renewable power generation

• 68% renewable share in the total energy mix

• Large exporter of oil and gas

• Petroleum one of 3 largest GHG emission sources

• Goal of reducing GHG emission with 40% by 2030,

and become a low carbon society by 2050

• A future for oil and gas?

The Alta hydro power plant. Photo: Statkraft

Oil platform Kristin. Photo: Statoil



Drivers towards a renewable power system

3

Source: Statkraft Source SF

Source: New Climate Economy

Battery

costs Energy

density

Based on BMW i3 Forum www.mybmvi3.com

Source: Scatec Solar

Renewable energy growing



Drivers for energy efficiency and reduced energy demand

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• Digitalization

• Artificial Intelligence

• Internet of Things

• LED technology

• Lightning

• Air-conditioning

• Appliances

• New building codes

• From products to

service and function


Engelsk mal:Tekst med kulepunkter

An energy sector transition consistent with well below 2°C

5Source:IEA/ IRENA Perspectives for the Energy Transition 2017

IEA findings

• Fossil fuels would halve between 2014 and 2050

• By 2050, 95% of electricity will be low carbon

• Investment in new oil and gas supply needed

• Natural gas important in the transition

IRENA findings

• 2050: Fossil fuels would stand at a third of today’s level

• Oil demand 45% of todays level

• CCS only in the industry sector

• Renewables to move into heat supply and transport



IEA: Power generation by source in the 66% 2°C Scenario

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IEA: Global transport fuel mix in the 66% 2°C Scenario

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Source: Av FaceMePLS. The Hague, https://commons.wikipedia.org https.//commons.Wikimedia.org

Photo: Harald M. Valderhaug

By 2050, 70% of new cars would be electric



IEA: Energy demand by fuel in buildings 66% 2°C Scenario

8

Energy efficiency: Improvements must double to 2,5% per year



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• Renewable energy and energy efficiency will

be most important for the energy transition

• The share of fossil fuels in the global energy

mix will be reduced to 35 – 50%, coal most

affected

• Disruptive technologies will accelerate new

business models

• New policy measures to achieve Paris

Agreement commitments will contribute

A future for fossil fuels?


Engelsk mal:Tekst med kulepunkter

Oil and gas exploration exposed to increased demand risk

CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/

Norwegian Expert Commission on

Green Competiveness

Ms Connie Hedegaard,

Former EU Commissioner Climate Action

Mr Idar Kreutzer.

CEO Finance Norway

• Norwegian government should consider whether the

increased demand risk give reason to make changes in the

petroleum policy framework

• The authorities should demand sensitivity analyses for

demand and carbon price in relation to development and

production of eventual new fields

disruptive technologies and demand risk - iaia18conferences.iaia.org/2017/uploads/presentations/iaia...

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