disruptive innovation in higher education (full course slides)
TRANSCRIPT
Course Introduction:Disruptive Innovation in Higher
EducationDr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu
3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
“Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics.”- Peter Drucker, 1997
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” - Amara’s Law (Roy Amara)
“In 15 years from now half of US universities may be in bankruptcy.”- Clayton Christensen, 2013
Image Source: Wikimedia
Who This Course is ForFaculty, staff, students and administration at
educational institutions wanting to understand and adapt to the changes to their industry
Innovators with an interest in educationAnyone that wants to know how to prepare for the
economy of the future
What: Course ObjectivesUnderstand the latest concepts driving change in higher
educationDevelop strategy for higher education using key concepts
of disruptive innovation and other topicsUse the material from this course to become a change
agent to bring innovation to their institutionUse the material from this course in a "flipped classroom"
discussion among students or leaders at your institution
What: Course Outline1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional
Higher Education3. Economics of Traditional Online Education4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher
Education6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty7. Lean Startup for Education8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis9. College Access & the Race between Technology and
Education10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
How to Use this CourseIndividually
◦Download to mobile through Udemy or iTunesU or use YouTube Playlist
◦Listen while exercising or commuting◦Go deep with supplemental videos and bibliography
Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups◦Listen to talks in advance◦For your students◦For leaders and change agents at your institutions◦Invite me to Skype in for discussion
Give feedback in discussion forum◦Two way Diffusion of Innovation: Bibliography suggestions, new
initiatives
How: Media Formats & LinksUdemy
◦https://goo.gl/ixlBwn iTunes University
◦https://goo.gl/9pGDAt YouTube (videos only)
◦https://goo.gl/B8kkD2 Slideshare (slides & video only)
“Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.”
- H.G. Wells
Image from Wikipedia
Disruptive Innovation TheoryApplied to Higher Education
Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
Key Concepts of Disruptive InnovationDisruptive Innovation
◦Definition: process by which a product or service takes root initially in simple applications at the bottom of a market and then relentlessly moves up market, eventually displacing established competitors.
◦Often combines off-the-shelf components in new, simpler ways◦Tend to be produced by new entrants
Sustaining innovations tend to be dominated by incumbents
Low-end disruption serves current market with a good enough product
New-market disruption expands market with better price & access
Source: Christensen, Clayton. (n.d.). Disruptive Innovation. Retrieved from http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/
Cell Phones in 1983
Smartphones: Disruptive Technology
Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free Press. p. 289
“People with a smartphone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.”
PCs
Mobile
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Mainframes
10 xMore Users
1/10th
Cost
Traditional
Higher Educatio
n
Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
Disruptive Innovation Education for Emerging Markets
TraditionalOnline Education
10 xMore Students
1/10th
Cost
For Profit Higher
Education
Community College
Traditional Higher Ed in Emerging Markets
Global CoursewareTech Platforms
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Image Source: Wikimedia
Online education is here
Current Stage of Online Education
LMS Stage Courseware Platform Stage
Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Lifecycle of Online Education
Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees
USAverage
GlobalAverage
TopIncomeQuartile
3rd IncomeQuartile
1st & 2nd IncomeQuartile
1: TraditionalHigher Education
2: TraditionalOnline Education
3: Courseware Platforms& Emerging Markets
Mac
iPod
iPhone
Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
Environmentally Adaptive“The Is” or Likely Future
Internally Driven“The Ought” or Preferred Future
Past Future
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
My Primary Expertise
Your Understanding
Dialogue
A Framework for Discussion“The Is vs. The Ought”
Understanding What’s Driving Change
in Traditional Higher EducationDr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu
1: TraditionalHigher Education
2: TraditionalOnline Education
3: Courseware Platforms& Emerging Markets
Mac
iPod
iPhone
Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
Increasing Cost of Higher Education Historically
Future Forecast for Private Education Demonstrate Unsustainability
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
7.2% AnnualTuition Increase
5% AnnualTuition Increase
2% CPI/Inflation
Inflation Adjusted Tuition = $145,200/year
Inflation Adjusted Tuition = $68,829/year
7.2% annual tuition increase is CCCU average since 2001
Tuiti
on
The Blame Game It’s the Faculty’s
Fault!It’s the
Administration's Fault!
Wait. It’s thestudents’ fault!
The Answer is… Yes
Baumol’s Cost Disease: Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor
Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies
Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retrieved from http://www.clydefitchreport.com/2014/11/cost-disease-opera-labor-arts-inflation/
What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 1
Increased Productivity in Other Sectors
Increased Cost of High Skilled
Labor = Increased Costs
of Faculty & Senior
Administration
Increased• standardized tests• large lectures• teaching assistants• administrative staff• adjuncts• underpaid faculty
Symptoms to CopeUnderlying Cause 1Baumol’s Cost DiseaseEconomics of Superstars
Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
There was a 60 times increase in productivity from 1500-2000.Higher Education has not seen this much productivity increase.
What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 2
Increased College Attainment of the Rich & Wealth
Concentration More Colleges Competing for Students in the Top Income
Quartile (who pay full tuition)
Increased• resort-like campus• building costs• student services
Decreasing Gov’t Funding of Higher Education
Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Creates Prisoners Dilemma / arms race ofincreasing expenses to attract full-pay students.
Market Changes & Porter’s Five Forces Model
Competitive Rivalry
Threat of New Entry
Buyer PowerThreat of Substitutes
Supplier Power
Decreased by:• Faculty overcapacity • “Uberization” of adjuncts• Unbundling components• Commoditized content & OERIncreased for:• Faculty superstars
Increased Alternatives to Campus Education:• Online, blended & CBE degrees• Non-degree programs• Employer analytics
• Overcapacity• Consolidation
Dramatically Increased by:• National competition online• Global competition• For-profit & mega-universities
Increased by:• Standardization• Unbundling degrees
Sustaining Innovation Recommendations1. Out-market using analytics:
◦“Moneyball” model (Race with the Machine by developing tech marketing core competency)
◦Models: Arizona State, Liberty, George Fox2. Enhance value using innovation, technology &
blended learning3. Cut costs 4. Provide a more granular approach to balanced P&L by
division5. Move “up market” into graduate education 6. Expand other revenue streams
◦ Health care, grow endowment, etc.
Market Dynamics of Traditional Online Education
Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
Economics of Online Education1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online
students) is likely between $500-3,000/year
2. Online education opens up competition independent of geography
3. Online education is a platform business where you pay “rent” to be visible (20-30% of revenue)
4. Dominant characteristic of online education is consolidation13% of students are online only9% are in for-profit institutions
Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke UniversityAmbient Insight
• Higher education overall: about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment.• Top 20 largest online schools account for one-third of online market.
Source: Online Higher Education Market Update - Eduventures. (n.d.). Retrieved March 16, 2015, from http://www.eduventures.com/insights/online-higher-education-market-update/
Online Education = ConsolidationOnline likely to sustain 1/10 of current schools
Understanding the For-Profit Education Business Model
Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf and http://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/for_profit_report/PartII/GrandCanyon.pdf
Marketing 3389 35%
Profit 1848 19%
Instruction 217722%
Other 2295.1776649
7462 24%
For-Profit Expenses (Grand Canyon)
Private Nonprofit: 32%
Comparing Business Models
Source: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf
For-Profit Private Nonprofit
Public
Revenue/Student
$11,130 $37,869 $18,922
Instruction 26% budget 33% budget 28% budget
Research 0% budget 12.5% budget 14% budget
Recommendations for Online Education1. Invest in marketing
◦ Facilities expense is replaced by marketing expense (rent paid to tech ecosystems to be visible = 20-30% revenue)
2. Create an independent skunkworks division◦ “New wine in new wineskins”◦ Conduct “lean startup” experiments to determine where to focus
3. Scale to reduce costs◦ Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students)
is likely between $500-3,000/year
Disruptive Innovation in Education for Emerging Markets and Courseware
PlatformsDr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu
1: TraditionalHigher Education
2: TraditionalOnline Education
3: Courseware Platforms& Emerging Markets
Mac
iPod
iPhone
Innovation Extensions in Higher Education
Global Opportunity
100 MillionStudentsin 2000
263 MillionStudentsin 2025(84% of growth in the developing world)
Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025
New Map of the World
Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) Innovation Principles Price Performance Innovation: Hybrids Scale of Operations Sustainable Development: Eco-Friendly Identifying Functionality Process Innovation Deskilling Of Work Education Of Customers Designing for Hostile Infrastructure Interfaces Distribution: Accessing the Customer BOP markets essentially allow us to challenge the conventional wisdom in
delivery of products and services
Potential Scenario: 2035-2050Global Scenario
◦ 10 times growth in tertiary education globally◦ 90% of degrees are in non-western countries◦ Majority of the world receives degrees/credentials that are nearly free
US Scenario◦ Loss of government subsidies in public higher education means many state
schools are likely to compete in a non-subsidized competitive market◦ Private schools experience dramatic increase in market share relative to public
higher education◦ Private higher education experiences major consolidation◦ Private schools lose some market share to free services provided on tech
platforms (like LinkedIn, Google, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft)◦ 70% of Americans receive a degree with growth primarily coming from low-cost
providersSources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke UniversityAmbient Insight
Future of Higher Education 2035Tier 1: The Elite
◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars) ◦ Analogy: New York Times, Economist, Organic Farming, Luxury Watches
Tier 2: High Quality, Moderate Cost◦ 50% in bankruptcy or merged, tuition $50-100k/year, high touch◦ Analogy: Physical Retail, Cable TV, Phone Companies
Tier 3: Good Enough Quality, Low Cost◦ 100k+ students or niche, tuition $100-$5,000/year◦ Analogy: Huffington Post, Netflix, Skype, niche ecommerce
Tier 4: Courseware Ecosystem Small Businesses◦ Sell apps, courses, educational content, books, certificates, student services,
videos, etc.◦ Analogy: eBay/Amazon merchants, bloggers, self-publishers, app developers
Tier 5: Courseware platforms◦ 100’s of millions or billions of students, LinkedIn/Lynda.com
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
How to Survive the Coming Storm:Lessons from Industry Case Studies
1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale.
◦ Retail & ecommerce, Farming
2. Offer both/and products to compete.◦ Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix
3. Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths.
◦ Journalism & News: New York Times4. Invest in digital growth not physical growth.
◦ Blockbuster vs. Netflix
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Recommendations for Emerging Markets1. Create an emerging markets skunkworks division within
your online skunkworks division◦ i.e. College for America, City Vision University, Low-Cost Vocational
Qualification Providers2. Start with a price that emerging market customers can
afford, then design around that. Price near marginal cost.
3. Use automation, unbundling and scale from emerging markets to reduce cost in traditional online education.
4. Design for mobile first for content delivery.5. Disrupt yourself, at lowest levels, but use marketing and
pricing mechanisms to limit cannibalization of your higher priced products.
6. Use lean startup methods with technology as core competency.
City Vision Growth Vision & Decreasing Costs
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
250 750 2,000
4,000
8,000
16,000
32,000
$3,000
$2,000 $1,750
$1,500
$1,000
Stu
dent
s
Mar
gina
l Cos
t Per
Stu
dent
Students
Marginal Cost Per Student
Pricing would be above marginal cost.
Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education
Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
Modular vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time
Image Source: Wikimedia
Modular Arch
itectu
re
Interd
epen
dent
Archite
cture
Unbundling in the Computer Industry
Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove
Other Examples• Netflix vs. Cable TV• iTunes vs. Albums• Online news vs. Newspapers
Components Packaged in a Traditional Degree
Items in italics are added by Andrew Sears. Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdfand http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/
(Affective)
(Cognitive)
(Psychomotor)
(Metacognition)
Darker blue represents componentsthat are the easiest to automate/disrupt.
University
Virtually Integrated UniversityKnowledge Acquisition
Access toOpportunity
Metacognition& Skills
TransformativeExperience
Paradigm 2. The Unbundled University
University
Unbundled UniversityKnowledge Acquisition
Access toOpportunity
Metacognition& Skills
TransformativeExperience Univ.
Boot Camps& Accelerators
OpenEducatio
n
Vocational & Trade Schools
IndustryCertificatio
ns
Boot Camps &
AcceleratorsStaffing
Agencies
MOOCs& Apps
Univ.
Univ.
Gap Year Service Learning Study Abroad
Univ.Paid
Courseware
CBE/Prior
LearningCommunity College
Internships& Externships
AlternativeCredentials
ReligiousService
University
Employer
Networks
Alternative Ed
Providers
IndependentProjects
University Unbundled Competitors to Universities
Unbundling typically shifts producer surplus (university profits)to consumer surplus (student benefits)
Rebundling Examples: Western Governors University
Western Governors’ Rebundled ProgramKnowledge Acquisition
Access toOpportunity
Metacognition& Skills
TransformativeExperience
Course Mentors (SME)
Credit by Exam & Prior Learning
Degree
PaidCourseware
Credit by Exam orCompetency Evaluation
Documented Competencies
IndustryCertifications
No Offering
Student Mentors Evaluators Program
Faculty Practicum
Rebundling Example: LinkedIn
LinkedIn Rebundled ProgramKnowledge Acquisition
Access toOpportunity
Metacognition& Skills
TransformativeExperience
Job Placement Service & Coaching
Lynda.com
Competency
ProfileEmployer Analytics
Third Party
Badging
IndustryCertification
s
Employment Social
NetworkTesting
Services
Universities
No Offering
Rebundling Example: Code Academies
Code Academies’ Rebundled ProgramKnowledge Acquisition
Access toOpportunity
Metacognition& Skills
TransformativeExperience
Mentored Project-Based Learning
Most Current, Highest Demand Contentfrom Top Practitioners
Relationships to
EmployerEmploymentGuarantees
Brand for Recruiting
Raw Brainpower
No Offering
Rebundling Examples: Vocational Qualifications
Vocational Qualifications Rebundled Program (EQF, RQF, etc.)
Knowledge Acquisition
Access toOpportunity
Metacognition& Skills
TransformativeExperience No Offering
Level 3
Level4
Top-up Bachelor’s
Degree
Level8
Level5
Level 7
Master’s
Prior Learning Assessment
Doctorate
Vocational Learning Centers
Internships& Externships
Employer
Networks
IndustryCertificatio
ns
On-the-jobTraining
BecomingCommoditized• Freshman• Sophomore• High School
Core Competency• Grad School
• Senior
• Junior
Stra
tegy
: Mig
rate
Up
Race with the machine not against the machine
StrategyAccelerated educationwith automation
StrategyDouble Down
Unbundle/Outsource Lower Tiers of Bloom’s Taxonomy
Blo
om’s
Tax
onom
y Le
vel
Low LevelBloom’s
HighLevelBloom’s
Subjectivity of AssessmentObjectiveAssessments
SubjectiveAssessments
Most Subject toCommoditization& Automation
Most Dependent on People
Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty
Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
Market and Technology Drivers for Porter’s Five Forces Model for Universities
Competitive Rivalry
Threat of New Entry
Buyer PowerThreat of Substitutes
Supplier Power
Decreased by:• Faculty overcapacity • “Uberization” of Adjuncts• Unbundling components• Commoditized content & OERIncreased for:• Faculty superstars
Increased Alternatives to Campus Education:• Online, blended & CBE degrees• Non-degree programs• Employer analytics
• Overcapacity• Consolidation
Dramatically Increased by:• National competition online• Global competition• For profit & mega-universities
Increased by:• Standardization• Unbundling degrees
Market and Technology Drivers for Porter’s Five Forces Model for Universities
Competitive Rivalry
Threat of New Entry
StudentsThreat of Substitutes
FacultyTechnology
Technology
OuchOuch
Unbundling and Deskilling Faculty:Western Governors’ Model
Knowledge Acquisition
Access toOpportunity
Metacognition& Skills
TransformativeExperience
Credit by Exam & Prior Learning
Degree
PaidCourseware
Credit by Exam orCompetency Evaluation
CBE IndustryCertifications
Student MentorsEvaluators Program
Faculty (ID)Requires critical new skills in tech & instructional design. More scalable than departmentchair structure.
Deskilled positionwith relational core competency
Core competencyof faculty becomesstandardized, commoditized &requires new skillsin online teaching
Lecture & much of content development is outsourcedas course content market becomes like book market
University of Phoenix Employs 29 Instructors to1 Course Designer(1)
Sources: About Western Governors University | WGU Faculty. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2016, from http://www.wgu.edu/about_WGU/wgu_faculty(1) American Higher Education in Crisis?: What Everyone Needs to Know®. (2014) (1 edition). Oxford ; New York: Oxford University Press.
Course Mentors (SME)
Porter’s Five Forces Model for Faculty
Competitive Rivalry
Threat of New Entry
Buyer PowerThreat of Substitutes
Supplier Power
• Commoditized Content • OER & MOOCs• Paid Courseware• Student Mentors• Instructional Designers
• Overcapacity• Decreasing WagesIncreasing Unemployment
Dramatically Increased by:• Distance independence of online faculty• Global market for faculty• Pre-packaged course publishers• Glut of graduate education in some fields
DramaticallyIncreased by:• Standardization• Unbundling faculty• Online content
Decreased by:• Open content• Better research tools• Increased access to published research
Improving Faculty Productivity through Automation
Automation and Hollowing Out of the Middle:In the Future Faculty Will Either be a Superstar or a Factory Worker
Source: Financial Times Graphic. Smith, Y. (2015, December 10). Demise of the US Middle Class Now Official. Retrieved from http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/12/demise-of-the-us-middle-class-now-official.html
Case Study Examples
Journalism jobs are down 42% from their peak
Sources (listed above or Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/
1. How to justly serve faculty facing declining economic prospects? 2. Will much of faculty research go the way of investigative journalism?
Equipping Faculty Entrepreneurs
Retraining for a Reimagined Role of FacultyCase Studies:
◦ Farming, manufacturing, music industry, journalism, TEDFind Research Funding or Find your “TED Talk”
◦ Start with your “Idea Worth Spreading”Growth of Faculty Entrepreneurs will follow growth of
entrepreneurship in other sectorsFaculty need to establish a platform across multi-format and multi-
channel revenue sources◦ Spread ideas horizontally across different media and markets◦ Teaching, consulting, writing, blogging, podcasts, YouTube, etc. ◦ University is one of many channels
Information-Based Business ModelsCost Minimization/ Benefit Acquisition Public Domain Intrafirm Barter/Sharing
Rights-based exclusion (make money by exercising exclusive rights—licensing or blocking competition)
Romantic Maximizers (authors, composers; sell to publishers; sometimes sell to Mickeys).
Faculty: Commercial Publishing. Self-publishing.
Mickey (Disney reuses inventory for derivative works; buy outputs of Romantic Maximizers).
Faculty course development. Paid MOOCs.
RCA (small number of companies hold blocking patents; they create patent pools to build valuable goods).
Faculty: Patents.
Nonexclusion Market (make money from information production but not by exercising the exclusive rights)
Scholarly Lawyers (write articles to get clients; other examples include bands that give music out for free as advertisements for touring and charge money for performance; software developers who develop software and make money from customizing it to a particular client, on-site management, advice and training, not from licensing).
Faculty Self-Publishing for their Personal Consulting Business
Know-How (firms that have cheaper or better production processes because of their research, lower their costs or improve the quality of other goods or services; lawyer offices that build on existing forms).
Faculty University Community; Contracting for Consulting Firms
Learning Networks (share information with similar organizations—make money from early access to information. For example, newspapers join together to create a wire service; firms where engineers and scientists from different firms attend professional societies to diffuse knowledge).
Research Consortiums. Academic Societies.
Nonexclusion- Nonmarket
Joe Einstein (give away information for free in return for status, benefits to reputation, value of the innovation to themselves; wide range of motivations. Includes members of amateur choirs who perform for free, academics who write articles for fame, people who write opeds, contribute to mailing lists; many free software developers and free software generally for most uses) Faculty Academic Publishing. Blogging. Free self-publishing. Podcasts. Open Education & Content. YouTube. Free MOOCs.
Los Alamos (share in-house information, rely on in-house inputs to produce valuable public goods used to secure additional government funding and status).
University Research Labs. Nonprofit or Corporate Research Labs.
Limited sharing networks (release paper to small number of colleagues to get comments so you can improve it before publication. Make use of time delay to gain relative advantage later on using Joe Einstein strategy. Share one’s information on formal condition of reciprocity: like “copyleft” conditions on derivative works for distribution)
Informal Peer Review Networks
Benkler, Y. (2007). The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom. Yale University Press. pp 43
Tech as a Core Competency of FacultyJust as in other professions in the future, faculty without
tech as a core competency will not be competitive◦Instructional design◦Online research and content curation◦Online publishing: Blogging, podcasting, YouTube, social media,
etc. ◦If you are faculty under age of 55, this will be essential
Strongest demand will be for faculty that cross extreme technology fluency with their field◦i.e. Bioinformatics, Big Data/Analytics + Your Field
ConclusionRole of the university is to enable the faculty’s success in
a market where the university will only be one revenue channel for most faculty
Labor laws will need to adjust for blurring line between contractor and full-time employee
Some faculty will need to be retrained for other employment
Millennials are more likely to adjust to a faculty/entrepreneur market as 60% of millennials consider themselves entrepreneurs
The Power of Millennial Entrepreneurship. (n.d.). Retrieved January 12, 2016, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/britt-hysen/the-power-of-millennial-e_b_5801322.html
Lean Startupfor Education
Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
Backwards (Waterfall) Program DesignAudience is Traditional Students
Outcomes for Well-Defined Fields
Assessments Based on Known Outcomes
Instruction with Known Content Available
FeedbackIterationIs Years
Best Development MethodologyChanges Based on Environment
Development Methodology
We know what customers want
We know how to deliver it
Waterfall √ √Agile √ ?Lean Startup ? ?
Problem Solution
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/
Waterfall vs. Agile vs. Lean Design
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/
(Backwards Design/Traditional Assessment Plans)
Lean Startup Process
Build
MeasureLearnProduct(start with minimum viable product)
Data
PivotMaximizeLoopIteration Speed
Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.
How Do You Reach 6 Billion People without Access to Higher Education? Design for 4 Interrelated Uncertainties
ChangingStudents
ChangingGoals
AffordableContent
Availability
Costs
Different students based on differentgoals, content and costs.$1,000 degree vs. $10k degree
What goals are realistic given the students, costs and content?
Different costs, goals and studentswill present different content options +content & platforms are rapidly changing.
Different content availability,goals and students will allowradically different costs.
Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis for Higher Education
Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
Demographic Shifts in the US: The End of the Good Times
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Change High School Graduate by State
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Global Education Statistics
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Changing global postsecondary/
tertiary student demographics
>75%from low or mid-income countries
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
28M
177M
>250M
Enrolled tertiary students
Increasingratio of woman to men
in higher education
Source: UNESCO via http://www.slideshare.net/BlackboardInc/todays-students-need-more-than-an-lms
Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World (March 15, 2013). UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports. Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf
Global Projection on Tertiary Education(baseline and optimistic)
Global Projection on Tertiary Education(four scenerios)
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
Growth of Private Education GloballyPrivate education globally has a growing market share for
decades: now at 30% of global marketRegions with highest private education
◦>70% private: Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Korea◦About 20-30%: South Asia, Latin America, Africa◦<15% private: China, Southeast Asia, New Zealand
Source: Private Higher Education: A Global Revolution. (2005). Rotterdam: Sense Publishers.
Source: "U.S. Federal Spending-Share of Mandatory vs. Discretionary Spending" by Farcaster - Time series chart created from CBO data plus author computations. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending-Share_of_Mandatory_vs._Discretionary_Spending.png#/media/File:U.S._Federal_Spending-Share_of_Mandatory_vs._Discretionary_Spending.png
Expenditures in the United States federal budget. (2016, January 25). In Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Expenditures_in_the_United_States_federal_budget&oldid=701618119
Summary of Key TrendsTraditional Higher Education
NontraditionalStudents
Emerging Markets
Private Education
Technology
College Access, the Opportunity Divide & the
Race between Technology and EducationDr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu
Three Waves of History
Agricultura
lIndustri
alInformati
onPrimary/Secondary School Higher Education
Decline of Farm Jobs
Source: ong depression – azizonomics. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://azizonomics.com/tag/long-depression/
20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation
Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014)
47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated away over the next decade or two (Frey & Osborne, 2013)
Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2014). Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in the United States (DISCONTINUED). Retrieved November 21, 2014, from https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USAPEFANA/
21st Century Challenge: College Graduation
Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
“Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.”
- H.G. Wells
Image from Wikipedia
Who is Winning the Race Between Education & Technology?
1915-1980 1980-2005-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Growth Supply of Degrees Jobs Lost Now Requiring DegreesEducation > Tech Job Loss
Annu
al G
row
th
EducationWinning
TechnologyWinning
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
Changing our Educational Trajectory
Source: Lumina Foundation Vision
2025 2050 2075 20930%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA)
Access is Dominant Narrative for 21st Century
Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education Equity in the United States 45 Year Trend Report. http://www.pellinstitute.org/
College Access Focus: the Bottom Half
37 pt. growth
3 pt. growth
6 pt. growth
19 pt. growth
Traditional College Focus
Disruptive InnovationOpportunity
2025 2050 2075 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile
Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile
(Disruptive InnovationOpportunity)
Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
2025 2050 2075 21000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Difference in Projected Educational Attainment
Straight Line Projection
No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles
Author’s Projection Based on Current Growth in College Degree Attainment
College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile
Source: Percentage of Students Entering and Completing College, and College Persistence, by Income Quartile | Russell Sage Foundation. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-students-entering-and-completing-college-and-college-persistence-incom
The Problem with Credentialism and Educational Inflation
The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more than the median male high school graduate in recent years, whereas among women, the gap has recently been around $2,000.
Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credentialism_and_educational_inflation and College May Not Pay Off for Everyone Liberty Street Economics. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/09/college-may-not-pay-off-for-everyone.html#.VqfMe9Q4G72
Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by Level of Household Net Worth
Source: Three Signs That Young Americans Are Getting a Raw Deal | BillMoyers.com. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from http://billmoyers.com/2015/02/24/three-signs-young-americans-getting-raw-deal/
Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree
Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (n.d.). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 | Center on Education and the Workforce. Retrieved April 21, 2014, from http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018
The Opportunity Divide:Mismatch of Jobs & Education
Jobs in 2018
People in 2012
Difference
Less than High School 10% 12.42% -2.4%
High School Degree 28% 30.72% -2.7%
Some College 12% 16.97% -5.0%Associate’s
Degree 17% 9.45% 7.6%Bachelor’s
Degree 23% 19.49% 3.5%Graduate Degree 10% 10.95% -0.9%Source: Carnevale, A., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (n.d.). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018 | Center on
Education and the Workforce. Retrieved April 21, 2014, from http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018
Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees
USAverage
GlobalAverage
TopIncomeQuartile
3rd IncomeQuartile
1st & 2nd IncomeQuartile
Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
“Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics.”- Peter Drucker, 1997
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” - Amara’s Law (Roy Amara)
“In 15 years from now half of US universities may be in bankruptcy.”- Clayton Christensen, 2013
Image Source: Wikimedia
What Change Agents & Innovators Should Avoid
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Image Source: Wikimedia
We are here
Proven Data Theoretical Projection
What Skeptics of Disruptive Innovation Should Avoid
Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
ChangeAgent
ChangeAgency
YourInstitution
Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
Sequence of Change Agent Roles1. To help clients see a need for change2. To establish an information exchange relationship3. To diagnose problems4. To create an intent to change in the client5. To translate intentions into action6. To stabilize adoption and prevent discontinuance7. To achieve a terminal relationship with clients
Source: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
Determinants of Success of Change Agents1. The extent of the change agent’s effort in contacting
clients2. A client orientation rather than a change agency
orientation3. The degree to which the diffusion program is
compatible with clients’ needs4. The change agent’s empathy with clients5. His or her homophily with clients6. Credibility in the clients’ eyes7. The extent to which he or she works through opinion
leaders8. Increasing clients’ ability to evaluate innovationsSource: Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition (5 edition). Free Press.
Environmentally Adaptive“The Is” or Likely Future
Internally Driven“The Ought” or Preferred Future
Past Future
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
My Primary Expertise(change agency)
Your Understanding(change agent)
Dialogue
A Framework for Discussion“The Is vs. The Ought”
Constraints on InnovationDebt/Lack of capitalCurrent cost structureCommitment to facultyPhysical plant/sunk costPolitical realitiesLack of core competency in innovationMissional constraintsOutdated underlying worldview/myths
Mechanisms of Diffusion of InnovationOnline Courses (this course)Conferences, workshops, webinarsFormal education: degrees, courses, lecturesMedia: books, videos, websites, magazines, software,
open resourcesEmployment: Staff trainingNetworks: Professional networks & associations, networks
of peersPrograms, products and their replicationPersonal: Consulting, word of mouthPublications: Open source software/open contentWho are the leaders in innovation?
Methods
Market
Disruptive Innovation will Change Methods & Market
Mission
Mission Does Not Change! (unless your mission is defined by methods & and market)
How do you define your mission?
“We are the best plowmen in farming”Source: File:Winslow Homer - The Plowman (1878).jpg - Wikimedia Commons. (n.d.). Retrieved January 26, 2016, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Winslow_Homer_-_The_Plowman_(1878).jpg
1. BOP Strategies2. Unbundling3. Cradle to grave education ecosystem4. Education on demand (Race with the machine)
1. Economics of Online Education2. Mega-Universities3. Cultural & Demographic Shifts4. Increasing Costs
Sustainability Challenges toHigher Education in the USA
(paradigms)
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
Environmental (adaptive)vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy
Using this Course for Discussion Groups
1. Identify those with the power to bring change2. Have them review this course and other helpful material3. Organize a discussion group on implications for your
institution4. Develop a strategy to move toward change5. Develop experiments to move toward change
As educators the primary thing we can do is to educate those who have the power to bring change.
Case Study Lessons for Faculty and Higher Education
InstitutionsDr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu
Effect of the Long Tail: 80/20 Rule Becomes the 60/40 Rule
80% of profit comes from 20% of products
60% of profit comes from 40% of products
Effects of the Long Tail & Higher EducationLong Tail Increases Diversity of Content
◦ Blockbuster Video: 80% of rentals are recent “blockbusters,” only carries 75 documentaries
◦ Netflix: 30% of rentals are “blockbusters” and carries 1,180 documentaries◦ Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000)
Long Tail of Search Terms (TechMission Websites)◦ Top 500 search terms provide 19.5% of visitors◦ 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors
Long Tail’s Implications for Diversity and College Access◦ Non-Western culture voices are almost entirely on the long tail.◦ The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion controlled by big
media and traditional universities from 80% to around 60% which gives more room for non-Western voices.
◦ Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.
The Chris Anderson Paradox
Content Is King Content Is CommoditizedBest in the World OriginalContent Is King
Second BestContent Is Commoditized
Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No Middle
Wor
ld’s
Bes
tLo
ng T
ail
Journalism Video Publishing Ideas Courses Credentialing
DisruptiveCompetencyBased Education
Traditional Degree
Publishing as a Case Study
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Modeling the Rise of Indie Authorship
1. Trade Books in Print
2. Trade eBooks 3. Indie eBooks
Mar
ket S
hare
Mark Coker. (2014, March 5). Smashwords: 10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture 50% of the Ebook Market by 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2016, from http://blog.smashwords.com/2014/03/sizing-self-publishing-market-10.html
Trade isWorld’s Best
Indie isLong Tail
Publishing as a Case Study: Best vs. Long Tail
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
0.00% 0.08% 0.40% 2.00% 3.00% 4.50%8.00%
11.25%15.00%
19.25%24.00%
29.25%35.00%
Modeling the Rise of Indie Authorship
1. Trade Books in Print
2. Trade eBooks 3. Indie eBooks
4. Total Indie Market Share
5. Total Trade Market Share
Mar
ket S
hare
Mark Coker. (2014, March 5). Smashwords: 10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture 50% of the Ebook Market by 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2016, from http://blog.smashwords.com/2014/03/sizing-self-publishing-market-10.html
Trade isWorld’s Best
Indie isLong Tail
As More Students Go Online Will Traditional Higher Education Follow Market Share Trajectory of Publishing?
Chart from: Allen, I. E., & Seaman, J. (2014). Grade change: Tracking online education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Ouahog Research Group. Retrieved from www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/gradechange.pdf
Journalism & Newspapers as a Case Study
Sources: Mark Perry. (2012, September 6). CARPE DIEM: Free-fall: Adjusted for Inflation, Print Newspaper Advertising Will be Lower This Year Than in 1950. Retrieved from http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html Newsonomics: The halving of America’s daily newsrooms. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/
Journalism Jobs down 42% from their peak
Sources (listed above or
Factors that Affect Susceptibility to DisruptionIs there a technology core that could rapidly innovate?
◦Yes. Online/digital educationHow much is the industry regulated?
◦Moderately: Higher education vs. energy or pharmaceuticals (most regulated)
Are there new industries requiring incumbent’s core competencies?◦i.e. Landline phone companies becoming mobile operators◦i.e. Cable television becoming broadband Internet providers
Is there very high investment cost to enter market?◦i.e. Energy and pharmaceuticals
Are there only a few competitors?◦i.e. Television Networks
Sources: Rob Perrons. (2013, September). Why the energy technology revolution hasn’t happened: Robert Perrons at TEDxQUT. Presented at the TEDx Talks, Queensland University of Technology. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=FeG0-goXmjA
Corporate Strategy Principles from Case StudiesBest in the world content corporate strategy
◦Increase scale and market power through consolidation◦Develop tech capacity, hybrid solutions and value innovation
strategies◦Cut costs to prepare for declining market share◦Invest in digital growth and diversify into other growth markets◦Use regulation to limit competition or to provide increased
subsidyLong tail corporate strategy
◦Core competency is technology◦Dramatically reduce per-unit cost through crowdsourcing◦Work to commoditize long tail content so you capture value as
aggregator◦Self-regulate to avoid regulation◦Leverage strength of long tail in cost, diversity and globalization
Personal Strategy Principles from Case StudiesBest in the world content personal strategy
◦Find your “idea worth sharing” niche where you can be best in the world
◦Use multi-channel marketing to develop your brand: books, online, articles, speaking, presentations, blog, podcasts, videos, university affiliation, etc.
Long tail personal strategy◦Develop efficiency for volume production to make a living in a low
per-unit cost market◦Increase revenue by moving upscale by increasing quality◦Increase revenue by using multi-channel marketing◦Recognize that employers receive 100 times as many resumes, so
get your name out there 100 times a much
Unbundling, Innovation and the Changing Landscape of Accreditation
and RegulationDr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu
Regulation & the Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meeker
Regulation & the Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meeker
From Faculty Centric to Student CentricUnbundling and Sharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty
Regulators
InnovatorsIncumbents
Students
Faculty
Unbundling typically shifts producer surplus (university profits & faculty salaries)to consumer surplus (lower tuition and increased student benefits)
Porter’s Five Forces Model, Accreditation & Regulation
Competitive Rivalry
Threat of New Entry
Buyer PowerThreat of Substitutes
Supplier Power
(faculty)Faculty Power Increased by• Faculty-driven accreditation requirements (ratios, PhDs)
Faculty Power Decreased by:• Lax laws for contractors• Requirements for financial solvency
Regulation for Efficient Market:• Credit portability• Course-based accreditation (ACE)Protective Strategy:• Exclusivity of regional accreditation
Protective Strategy:• Increased regulation (of for profit schools)• Increased accreditation requirements• State authorization requirements
Regulation for Efficient Market:• College Scorecard• RoI/Cost/Performance PressuresProtective Strategy:• Information Asymmetry• Differentiation & Increased Tuition
Protective Strategy:• Government bailout
Lean Startup, Innovation & the Problem with the Current Assessment Model for Accreditation
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/NatalieHollier/lean-strategymeetup-small/
(Backwards Design/Traditional Assessment Plans)
Blue Ocean Strategy, Value Innovation and the Problem with Current Accreditation Metrics
Modular vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time
Image Source: Wikimedia
Modular Arch
itectu
re
Interd
epen
dent
Archite
cture
Output vs. input
RecommendationsSupport more modular accreditation (course level and unit
level)◦ACE Credit Recommendation
For Profit Higher Education
Current Stage of Online Education
1st Wave For Profit 2nd Wave (Courseware Tech Ecosystems)
Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Lifecycle of Online Education
3. Growth of For-Profits
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Growth of For-Profit Education
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Dominate Age 22 and above
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Average Revenue per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Average Spending Per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For-Profits Have Highest Load Debt Per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Instructional Spending by Type
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
University of Phoenix (2010)Enrollment = 600,000
University of Phoenix (2015)Enrollment = 215,000
Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
Environmental (adaptive)vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy
Disruptive Innovation & the Is-Ought Distinction
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, The courage to change the things I can, And the wisdom to know the difference.
Just because something is happening does not mean it should happen.
A Best Guess on WisdomThings I cannot change Massive consolidation in higher
education
Western education eclipsed by “the rest”
Future dominance of technology in education
Baumol’s cost disease
Changing roles of faculty
Future growth of traditional Western Christian higher education
Thing I can change Pursue strategies to achieve scale
Develop business models for BoP
Embrace tech as core competency
Cut cost, automate and unbundle for efficiency
Retrain faculty for economic future
Invest in new growth markets
Three Visions for Future Growth of HE1. Government
◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education: Obamacare for Higher Education
◦ Government mega-universities: 1 million+ students◦ Challenge: increases secularizing influence of government
education2. Global Educational Conglomerate
◦ 50% of “degrees” globally by 2050 may come from 3-4 tech companies offering free education with a small payment for the credential
◦ Challenge: Likely to follow same secularizing tendency as media conglomerates
3. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education◦ Innovators learn to build modularly on 1 & 2 to expand
Christian market share in post-secondary educationSource: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
1800 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025 -
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,800,000,000
2,000,000,000
Christian Membership by Region
West SouthStatus of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
1900 1970 2000 2007 20250%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
21%
59%
86%91%
99%
79%
41%
14%9%
1%
Growth of Christianity by Region
Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
Christian Mega-universities & Growth
Liberty U43%
Grand Canyon U39%
All of CCCU19%
Estimated Growth Since 2005Total Growth: 175,808 students
Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.
Methods
Market
Disruptive Innovation will Change Methods & Market
Mission
Mission Does Not Change! (unless your includes methods and market)
Essential Elements of Christian Education1. Christian worldview2. Christian community3. Christian content4. Christian care for stakeholders
Process for Modular Christian Education
Theology & Christian Worldview
Audience, Pedagogy & Goals
Christian Community, Transformative Experience & Metacognitive Education
ChristianCourses
Theology Courses
Secular Courseware
Secular MOOCs &
Open Education ResourcesSu
bjec
ts
Components Packaged in a Traditional Degree
Items in italics are added by Andrew Sears. Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdfand http://edumorphology.com/2013/12/unbundling-higher-education-a-doubly-updated-framework/
The Core Competenciesof Christian Educationare the Hardest to Replace(Life Transformation &Metacognition)
(Affective)
(Cognitive)
(Psychomotor)
(Metacognition)
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Rebundling Example: Online Christian Education
Knowledge Acquisition
Access toOpportunity
Metacognition& Skills
TransformativeExperience
WorkplaceMentoring
Online Education
Degree
Internship/Practicum
PastoralMentoring
Service Learning
Discipleship Program
International or Urban Immersion
View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem.
Nearly FreeContent& Innovation
Christian College(Life Transformation)
+ BetterThan
Government Subsidized State University
In a platform world, how do we make the entire Christian education ecosystem/platform more competitive?
Innovation + Life Transformation Has Growing Competitive Advantage over Government Subsidy
Traditional Higher Education
Traditional Monastery Higher Education Model
Local ChristianCommunity
Practical Work ExperienceStudents “Close” to Instructor
Distant From
Students
Re-bundling Online Education with Church Study Groups & Internships
Local Discipleship &Study Groups
Practical Work Experience
Distant From
Students
Instructor
What business has the most locations in the USA?
14,146
25,900
Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/04/24-7-wall-st-most-popular-stores/8614949/
314,000
What institution has the most locations in the USA?
Strategic Implications of Prospect of Faith-Based Institutions Losing Federal Aid
Bottom Half StrategyJob prep/RoI focusIncrease automationChristian ecosystemMore international focusFocus on scaleCould benefit from CBEMore focus on the poor
Lose Federal Aid StrategyJob prep/RoI FocusIncrease automationChristian ecosystemMore international focusFocus on scaleCBE likely to allow CHEMore focus on the rich
Developing a bottom-half strategy also prepares for a world without federal aid.
Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation Christian Mega-universities
◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon Competency Based Education
◦ Lipscomb University, DePaul University, Antioch School of Church Planting
Radically New Education Models◦ Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, City Vision
Christian Open Education (next slide) Investment and Outsourcing Companies
◦ Significant Systems, Capital Education Group, Bisk Education Global Innovators
◦ Global University Course Vendors & Clearinghouses
◦ Knowledge Elements, Bible Mesh, Learning House
Chr
istia
n (J
esus
)
Affordable (Justice)Innova
tion (T
ech)
Community Colleges
MOOCs & Open EdUdemy, Coursera, EdX, FuturelearnOpen2study, Udemy, Khan Academy, Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI
Christian Mega UniversitiesLiberty, Grand Canyon
Affordable Tech Sector
ChristianInnovation Sector
AffordableChristian SectorKey: Black Accredited. Orange Content Provider Green Community Partners
Competency BasedWestern GovernorsCollege for America
State Colleges
Christian Universitiesin Developing Countriesdaystar.ac.ke
Paid CoursewarePearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com, Skillshare, Pluralsight
Affordable Bible CollegesABHE Schools
Online Christian Universities
ACE CreditStraighterline, Saylor, Ed4OnlineEdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, SofiaUC Irvine Extension, Dream Degree
Christian Open EdChristianCourses.com, Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Openseminary.com BiblicalTraining.org, Harvestime.org, http://thirdmill.org, Christian CEU Providers
insight.org/CEU, lifepointemedia.com, lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, precept.org/ceu, sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies, hristiancounselingceu.com
Paid Christian Wholesale Course ProvidersKnowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org, onlinesbs.org/esbs/
Bible InstitutesTUMI, NYDS
Open Textbookssaylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org, courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen collegeopentextbooks.org, open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/
Missions/Ministry TrainingMission Year, YWAM U Nations, IHOP U
Developing Country TechKepler.org, Avu.edu, elearningafrica.com,Coursera Learning Hub, MIT Ulabs, U of People, Pearson Affordable Learning
Training CentersQualifications Providers
Industry Map
Higher Ed in Developing Countries
Christian EmployersEmployer Paid Tuition Partners
Internship Sites70+ Ministries
Discipleship Study Centers(in churches and ministries)
Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnam
5 pt. decline
10 pt. decline
Gap Doublesto 10 points
5 point gap
Is a shortage of pastoral leadership among the poor affecting their church attendance?
Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses Free or Open Christian Content Providers
◦ Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, christianuniversity.org , Christian Leaders Institute, BiblicalTraining.org, harvestime.org
Aggregators of Christian Course Content: ◦ iTunes, Udemy, Alison.com, YouTube, Vimeo
Low Cost Christian CEU Providers◦ www.insight.org/CEU, www.lifepointemedia.com, www.lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/
acsi/, www.precept.org/ceu, www.sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies , christiancounselingceu.com
Paid Course Material Wholesale Providers◦ Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org,
CUGN.org
Create Matrix Map of Divisions
Zimmerman, S., & Bell, J. (2014). The Sustainability Mindset: Using the Matrix Map to Make Strategic Decisions (1 edition). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
Example Matrix Map
Source: Zimmerman, S., & Bell, J. (2014). The Sustainability Mindset: Using the Matrix Map to Make Strategic Decisions (1 edition). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.Matrix Map is similar to Growth Share Matrix used in Business Strategy. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Growth%E2%80%93share_matrix&oldid=695752726
Who Has Jobs by Education?
Less
Than
High
Schoo
l Dipl
oma
High S
choo
l Gra
duat
e
Some C
olleg
e or A
ssoc
iate's
Bache
lor's
Degre
e0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Source: StLouisFed FRED. May 2015
Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education
Does Technology Hurt or Help the Poor?
Ability of Institutional Models to Cross the Chasm and Serve the Unreached Bottom Half
Radically Accessible
Radically Affordable
Tech Innovator
Cultural Match
RemedialEducation
Disruptive Christian College
Community College & Mega-universities
Somewhat
For-Profit College VariesHigh-Priced Online VariesTraditional Christian CollegeState Schools
City Vision serves the bottom half socioeconomically (bottom 75% in graduate programs)
Blue Ocean Strategy and New Value Innovation Business
ModelsDr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision Universitywww.cityvision.edu
Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas for Southwest Airlines
Overview of Blue Ocean Strategy and Value Innovation
Adaptive Learning and Competency Based Education
Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No Middle
Wor
ld’s
Bes
tLo
ng T
ail
Journalism Video Publishing Expertise Courses Credentialing
DisruptiveCompetencyBased Education
Traditional Degree
Sca
labi
lity
Low
-Tec
h H
igh-
Touc
h
Pace of PersonalizationMore Static Continuously Adaptive
Hig
h-Te
ch, L
ow-T
ouch
Face-to-Face Tutoring
Differentiated Instruction
Correspondence Courses
StaticMOOCs
Computer-Based Instruction
OnlineCourses
Mastery Learning CBE(Western Governors)
Adaptive CBE
PLA Portfolio
BlendedAdaptive(Khan Academy)
Credit By Exam
ClassroomInstruction
High-Fixed CostLow-Per Student Cost
Low-Fixed CostHigh-Per Student Cost
Mapping Modes of Education
Source: Initial Chart idea from Brian Flemming. (2015, May). Adaptive Learning: The Breakthrough Innovation Impacting Education Today. Eduventures Online Webinar. Retrieved from bit.ly/1HGerOS. Andrew Sears made many additions and changes to chart.