disruptive analysis - lte summit voice pres may 2011

Trends in LTE voice & personal

communications

LTE Summit, 18th May 2011

[email protected]

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011May 2011

About Disruptive Analysis

Analyst house & strategic consulting firm

Founded by Dean Bubley

Blog at disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Twitter @disruptivedean & also on LinkedIn and Quora

Covering mobile VoIP since 2004, pico/femtocells since 2001

Regular focus on the links between innovative mobile network technologies & the impact on devices and applications

Partnered with Telco 2.0, Diffraction Analysis & Martin Geddes Consulting

Coined the term “Happy Pipe” to describe profitable broadband strategies Also “Tyranny of the SIM card”, “Mobile data offload” & “Under the floor player”

Recent reports on Mobile Broadband Traffic Management & RCS

Upcoming study on Telco-OTT services

Masterclasses on “Future of Voice”. SF event June 30th, London event on July 14th

The big picture

• VoIP needed for cost & competition

• Well-defined wholesale models

• Centralised & standardised services

• Attempts to evolve telephony to APIs

2000-2010

Fixed broadband & VoIP, QoS

• Power & bandwidth to fit comms tech to human needs, not vice versa

• Many “two-sided” business models

• Fragmentation of voice into 1000 apps

2010-2020

LTE, cloud, web 2.0, social networks, smart

devices, apps, QoE


Future telephony economics 101

Supply of basic telephony (or close substitutes) rising

Regulatory pressures (eg termination fees)

Lower perceived value in phone calls vs. other communications channels

Accounting rule changes

More users

Possibility to “distribute” telephony via APIs &

embedded applications

New use cases?

Extra functionality & quality?


Three basic “uses cases” for communications


Source: Martin Geddes Consulting

Presence is “sensuous”

More than on/offline

Includes context & emotion

A dirty little secret….


Humans don’t

really interact with

each other in

“sessions”

…but sessions are easy to control & bill. The challenge is to package sessions

in a way to compete with more “natural” options that are emerging

Voice ≠ Telephony

Now: 2G & 3G


Voice

Telephony

Voice

Telephony

Future: Smartphones & LTE

Video, context, senseVideo

Gaming, CEBP,

surveillance, social

voice, TV voice etc

Voicemail

Conferencing

PTT

Significant risk that basic telephony & messaging services fall prey to alternatives

that fit better with human psychology. Moving to supply >> demand for voice

LTE era vs 50bn devices: How many with voice?


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2020

Other

LTE phones

3G phones

2G phones

Possibly 50 billion+

(maybe 1 trillion+)

Billion

devices

Most devices not for

“primary voice”.

Scope for secondary

IP comms services

Most devices

for “primary

voice”Still a lot of

CS mobile

voice

Full mobile

VoIP not

#1 priority

2020 “Straw Man”

1bn LTE handsets

Comms services ARPU $20 / mo

[but 50% carried on 2G/3G/WiFi]

$120bn revenue

= equivalent to 2010 SMS market

Will future operators all support voice? How?

Integrated voice &

data operators

Full IMS + VoLTE

“Velcro” GSM or CSFB or VoLGA

Data only & BYO-VoIP

Partner Skype / Google

etc

Cloud voice (non-

access)

Partial IMS / NGN VoIP


+ need for continuity at LTE / 3G

/ 2G /WiFi boundary

IMS: dead, but now nailed to the perch of LTE?


LTE

Mobile IMS

3GPP

& GSMA

Fjords, aka RCS

(With apologies to Monty Python)

http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2009/08/mobile-ims-and-lte-networks-dead-parrot.html

Revisiting the VoIP timeline


Vocaltec 1st

Internet VoIP

software

ITU develops

H323

SIP spec

released

Skype launched

Cisco starts

selling IP-PBXs

1m Cisco

IP-phones

shipped

10m IP-phones

shipped by

Cisco

10% of fixed global

PSTN based on

carrier VoIP

(about 110m

subscribers)AT&T VoIP

launched

SoftBank /

Yahoo VoIP

launched

• 8 years to get 10% penetration for fixed-carrier VoIP

against background of old switches, all postpaid (recurring

revenue). No issues of mobility, battery or RF.

• 12 years after ITU release SIP specifications

• OneVoice (later VoLTE) specs announced late 2009

• First VoLTE launches 2012/2013 (?)

Skype gets

124m monthly

users

LTE voice & VoLTE challenges Too many spectrum bands

Poor optimisation in efficiency, yield, cost & performance

All sorts of policy-management / steering challenges

Not all operators will deploy VoLTE, even long-term

Some will be data-only/primary & not need own voice platform

Some may partner / encourage / optimise Skype & other 3rd party voice

Offload / multi-bearer scenarios

No likelihood of MNOs switching off CS voice before 2020

Unknown need for optimisation & tuning of RAN for VoLTE

High probability of OSS / BSS headaches

Lack of clarity around network-sharing / wholesale scenarios

Indoor coverage problems, esp. with MIMO

Massmarket handsets a long way off

Where is SMS???


Most likely outcome for LTE Voice

Solution 2011-2012 2013-2014 2015 onwards Notes

VoLTE Some trials. Many

problems found

Patchy rollout, more

in 700-900MHz

networks

Slow growth but not

universal. Used for

roaming

If it works, OK for

basic telephony, not

for Voice 2.0

CSFB Few rollouts. Likely

not good user

experience

May be fixed, but not

likely

Fades out as

mainstream option

Political choice by

GSMA / 3GPP

VoLGA Unlikely to be used,

maybe OTT

May come back if

other solutions as

bad as feared

Good option for

those with long CS

legacy ahead

Could be revisited by

3GPP under another

name

No operator voice.

User picks 3rd pty

Used on laptops &

tablets. Some

smartphone use

Common on LTE

wholesale networks

May be 2nd voice

service along with

operator’s own

Some operators will

take fixed bband

approach

Optimised 3rd-party

VoIP

A few renegade

operators

Depends on Skype,

Google etc

Important in specific

pockets but not

universal

Could be provided

from other telco as

wholesale

Dual-radio “Velcro” Use for SVLTE in

CDMA 1x + LTE

Replacement for

CSFB in 3GPP?

Probably superseded Battery impact but

better overall QoE


Towards two-sided business models?


Telco End users

Other

Telco

Whole-

sale

$$$

$

$

Devel-

opersGovern

-ment

Media

&

content

Brands

& adver

-tisers

Web

players

IT

shops

Possible payment for QoS, voice API

access, ads, customer info etc

But a risk of reversal – telcos paying

for Web QoS, APIs, data, content

And also “not as easy as it looks” to

achieve. Platforms, SLAs, IT, sales…

Some technology gaps?


Telephony &

messaging

model for

wholesale

LTE

networks

VoIP and

messaging in

complex

offload

scenarios

Prioritisation

& QoS

engines for

complex

scenarios

Signalling

management

for VoLTE,

comms apps

& MBB

On-device

measuremen

t of user-

perceived

QoE

Advanced

acoustic

technology

optimised for

mobile VoIP

Solution for

SMS on LTE

that works

Dual-radio

GSM / LTE

devices and

chipsets

Next steps: participate, analyse & collaborate


www.disruptive-analysis.com

disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

@disruptivedean

[email protected]

+44 (0) 7941 100016


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disruptive analysis - lte summit voice pres may 2011

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