Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D.MITRE / CAASD

April 2014

Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS

Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755

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Flight Operations Risk Assessment System

Technology for

ProactivePer flightPre-flight

Risk assessment

Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool

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A Little History

Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997

US Naval Research Laboratory

EVA Airways

MITRE Corporation

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Publication

SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS

AeroSafety WorldNovember 2013

DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL

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Benefits

Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment

Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index

Full explanation and breakdown of risk components

Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation

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Levels of Use

• Corporate Management

• Dispatch, Crew

• Safety Department

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How does it look?

Dispatcher Reviews &

Notifies Central Server

calculates Risk Index

SupportingOperations Databases

Safety Manager

ALERT!

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Input

Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories:

– Crew Factors

– Sector (City-pair) Factors

– Aircraft Factors

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Input

Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories:

– Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System

– Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases

– Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases

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Output

Risk Index– Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0– Relative score– Compare to baseline (average)

Critical Parameter identification– Identify actionable over-limit parameters

10.0

1.0

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Operational Example

EVA AirwaysTaipei, Taiwan

100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival3 flights/day get 2nd level review

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FORAS Interface (EVA example)

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Example: Single fleet, single route trend

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Example: Single fleet comparison

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What are the critical parameters?

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Critical Parameters – City pair

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Critical Parameter – One fleet

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Method

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Knowledge-based System

Experts Performance Data

Studies and Statistics

ForensicEvent Analyses

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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

Approach & Landing

Risk

Crew Risk City-Pair Risk Aircraft Risk

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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

Approach & Landing

Risk

Crew Risk

Communication Experience Stressors

City-Pair Risk

Length Airport En-route

Aircraft Risk

MEL Suitability

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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

Approach & Landing

Risk

Crew Risk

Communication

… …

Experience

… …

Stressors

… …

City-Pair Risk

Length

… …

Airport

… …

En-route

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Aircraft Risk

MEL

… …

Suitability

… …

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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

Approach & Landing

Risk

Crew Risk

Communication

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Experience

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Stressors

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City-Pair Risk

Length

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Airport

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En-route

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Aircraft Risk

MEL

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Suitability

…

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.

…

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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

Approach & Landing

Risk

Crew Risk

Communication

… …

.

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Experience

… …

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Stressors

… …

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City-Pair Risk

Length

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Airport

… …

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En-route

… …

Aircraft Risk

MEL

… …

Suitability

…

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.

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.

…

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Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors

Approach & Landing

Risk

Crew Risk

Communication

… …

.

. .

.

.

Experience

… …

. .

.

Stressors

… …

. .

. .

. .

.

City-Pair Risk

Length

… …

Airport

… …

. .

. . .

. .

En-route

… …

Aircraft Risk

MEL

… …

Suitability

…

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.

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.

…

Computation Flows Upwards

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Example Risk Factors (ALAR)

Conditions which lead to increased risk Examples (crew, sector, aircraft):

– Inter-crew communication– Crew experience– Experience at airport– Transient fatigue– Cumulative fatigue– Approach and Landing related MEL items– Sector length– ATC skill– Complex approach– Airport congestion– Visual Conditions

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FORAS Foundation

Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS. FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management Managed by a committee of trustees

Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models Progressively priced based on fleet size Available installation and training Stand-alone or cloud-based installation Generic or customized risk models

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FORAS Requirements

Crew Roster and Tracking Flight Information System, MEL data NOTAM access Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.

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FORAS Foundation Further Information

Contact Flight Safety Foundation

Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation

Danny Ho, EVA Air

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Summary

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Model Benefits

Centralize safety knowledge

Connect human factors and risk.

Works with operations data, not FOQA

“Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors.

Customizable to each carrier’s operations.

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Program Benefits

Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level.

Pre-flight risk assessment leads to

AwarenessCommunicationDecision AidMitigation

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Thank you

Further information

Flight Safety FoundationDanny Ho, EVA AirwaysMike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation