dispatch no. 45 | 15 september 2015 african...
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 1
Dispatch No. 45 | 15 September 2015
African democracy update: Democratic
satisfaction remains elusive for many
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 45 | Thomas Bentley, Kangwook Han,
and Peter Halley Penar
Summary
For democracy advocates around the world, International Day of Democracy highlights the
contributions of citizens to making decisions for their countries and ensuring that governments
are accountable to their people. On International Day of Democracy 2015 (September 15),
Afrobarometer examines how African citizens perceive the quality of their democracies.
Many African countries have signed or ratified the African Union Charter on Democracy,
Elections and Governance, which clearly expresses governments’ commitments to “human
rights and democratic principles,” a representative system of government (Chapter 4 and
Chapter 5), and free and fair elections (Chapter 7). New Afrobarometer data from 28
countries1 suggest that the extent to which African countries put democratic ideals into
practice varies widely across countries.
On average, barely half of surveyed citizens consider their country a “full democracy” or “a
democracy with minor problems,” and less than half (46%) are “fairly” or “very” satisfied with
how democracy is working in their country, a decrease from the previous survey round.
Levels of satisfaction range from highs of 72% in Namibia and 68% in Botswana to lows of 26%
in Togo and 11% in Madagascar.
Regular, free, and fair elections, a cornerstone of democracy, are not yet a universal reality,
the survey data indicate. While large majorities in Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) consider
their most recent national elections either “completely free and fair” or “free and fair but
with minor problems,” only 46% share this opinion in Ghana.
Other important elements of democracy, such as freedom of speech and association, also
show substantial differences among countries. In several countries, such as Swaziland, Togo,
and Zimbabwe, citizens perceive high barriers to speaking freely, whereas most Malawians
and Ghanaians believe they can say what they think. Differences across the 28 countries are
smaller with regard to the freedom to join political organisations and the freedom to vote for
candidates of their choice, although a majority of Swazis register a lack of freedom of
association and vote choice.
As the African Union and international community work to support African countries to fulfil
their commitments to democracy, the perceptions of ordinary citizens provide an important
window on progress and remaining challenges.
1 Afrobarometer Round 6 surveys, representing two-thirds of African countries and 76% of the continent’s population, cover countries at various levels of democracy, although a number of the continent’s least democratic states are excluded. The 28 countries for which Round 6 data are currently available are Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 2
Afrobarometer surveys
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude
surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more
than 30 countries in Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and 2013,
and Round 6 surveys are currently under way (2014-2015). Afrobarometer conducts face-to-
face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative
samples that yield country-level results with margins of error of +/-2% (for samples of 2,400) or
+/3% (for samples of 1,200) at a 95% confidence level.
This dispatch presents some preliminary findings based on data from 41,953 interviews
completed so far in 28 countries during Round 6 (see the appendix for fieldwork completion
times). Interested readers should watch for additional findings on democracy and other
topics to be released once Round 6 surveys are completed, starting in October 2015.
Key findings
On average across 28 countries, a slight majority (52%) of citizens perceive their
country to be a full democracy (18%) or a democracy with only minor problems
(34%). In 10 of the 28 countries, the more frequently expressed view is that the country
is a democracy with major problems or not a democracy at all.
Compared to the previous round of surveys (Round 5, 2011-2013), satisfaction with
democracy declined from 50% to 46% of citizens who say they are “very” or “fairly”
satisfied. Satisfaction levels vary substantially across countries, from highs of 72% in
Namibia and 68% in Botswana to lows of 26% in Togo and 11% in Madagascar.
Seven of 10 respondents say their most recent national elections were “completely
free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems.” About nine of 10 citizens in
Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) share this view, but only 46% of Ghanaians agree.
A bare majority (51%) of citizens say they are “completely free” to say what they
think. Freedom of speech is perceived as most limited in Swaziland (where only 18%
say they are completely free), Togo (26%), and Zimbabwe (27%). Citizens are
somewhat more confident in their freedom of political association (61% completely
free) and express relatively high confidence in their freedom to vote as they choose
(73%).
No consensus on the supply of democracy
A slim majority (52%) of Africans perceive their country to be either a full democracy (18%) or
a democracy with only minor problems (34%) (Figure 1).
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 3
Figure 1: Extent of democracy | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how much of a democracy is your country today?
Countries differ considerably in the extent of democracy that their citizens perceive.
Majorities give favourable assessments in 15 countries, led by Mauritius (76%), Botswana
(75%), and Namibia (72%) (Figure 2). But at the other extreme, only one-third of citizens in
Swaziland and Nigeria share this positive assessment. (Note that Nigerians’ negative
assessments of the extent of their democracy, their satisfaction with democracy, and the
quality of their most recent national election were captured in December 2014, some three
months before the country underwent a historic electoral transition. On the flipside,
Burundians’ relatively positive assessments were recorded in September-October 2014, long
before the highly contested 2015 election that saw President Pierre Nkurunziza win a
constitutionally questionable third term while many opposition and civil-society leaders had
to flee the country.) Overall, in 10 of the 28 countries, more citizens say their country is not a
democracy or a democracy with major problems than hold the more favourable view.
10%
27%
34%
18%
12%
Not a democracy
A democracy, with
major problems
A democracy, but with
minor problems
A full democracy
Do not understand
question / democracy /
Don't know
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 4
Figure 2: Extent of democracy | by country | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Satisfaction with democracy varies just as widely. Across 28 countries, only a plurality (46%) of
citizens say they are “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied” with the way democracy works in their
country(Figure 3), while 43% say they are “not very satisfied” or “not at all satisfied.”
Satisfaction runs highest in Namibia (72%), Botswana (68%), Mauritius (66%), and Burundi (66%)
but falls below one-third of citizens in seven countries, including Madagascar (11%), Togo
(25%), Cape Verde (26%), and Nigeria (28%). (As above, the caveats regarding the timing of
the Burundi and Nigeria surveys apply.) Sizeable majorities express dissatisfaction with their
democracy in 11 of the 28 countries.
76%
75%
72%
71%
70%
65%
65%
58%
55%
55%
54%
53%
52%
52%
52%
51%
49%
48%
48%
45%
44%
40%
38%
38%
37%
36%
35%
33%
33%
4%
5%
6%
4%
12%
9%
9%
27%
10%
2%
7%
9%
10%
24%
11%
10%
9%
3%
21%
8%
9%
4%
36%
7%
17%
19%
18%
4%
16%
20%
20%
22%
25%
18%
26%
26%
14%
35%
44%
39%
39%
38%
24%
37%
39%
42%
49%
32%
47%
47%
56%
27%
55%
47%
45%
47%
63%
51%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Mauritius
Botswana
Namibia
Burundi
Niger
Senegal
Zambia
Tanzania
Cape Verde
Mali
Benin
Liberia
Ghana
Uganda
Average
Burkina Faso
Malawi
Guinea
Kenya
Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon
Togo
Sierra Leone
Tunisia
Lesotho
Zimbabwe
Madagascar
Nigeria
Swaziland
A full democracy or a democracy with minor problems
Do not understand question / democracy or don't know
Not a democracy or a democracy with major problems
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 5
Figure 3: Satisfaction with democracy | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Respondents were asked: Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in your
country?
Satisfaction with democracy is not static, and changes over time may sometimes reflect
factors other than the functioning of democratic institutions (such as economic problems
that citizens may attribute to “democracy,” or rising (as-yet unsatisfied) public expectations
of how democracy should work). Looking at short-term changes since Round 5 surveys were
conducted in 2011-2013, we find that on average across the 28 countries, satisfaction with
democracy decreased from 50% to 46%. It increased markedly, however, in six countries, led
by Mali (a 19-percentage-point increase) and Tunisia (18-point increase) (Figure 4).
In contrast, seven countries experienced declines in satisfaction of more than 10 percentage
points, most dramatically a 32-percentage–point drop in Sierra Leone (Figure 5). Ghana’s 18-
percentage–point decrease in satisfaction is particularly remarkable; discontent with the
2%
7%
8%
7%
4%
14%
13%
12%
8%
7%
8%
17%
14%
11%
15%
12%
19%
16%
15%
20%
9%
29%
12%
19%
29%
31%
14%
29%
27%
9%
18%
18%
21%
24%
16%
19%
22%
28%
30%
32%
24%
29%
32%
31%
35%
30%
33%
35%
35%
49%
31%
48%
45%
36%
35%
52%
39%
45%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Madagascar
Togo
Cape Verde
Swaziland
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Lesotho
Zimbabwe
Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon
Benin
Guinea
Liberia
Burkina Faso
Average
Kenya
Malawi
Mali
Uganda
Ghana
Tunisia
Zambia
Tanzania
Senegal
Niger
Burundi
Mauritius
Botswana
Namibia
Very satisfied Fairly satisfied
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 6
government’s economic management may be one of several factors contributing to this
change.2
Figure 4: Increasing satisfaction with democracy | 6 countries with largest increases
| 2011-2015
(% “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied”)
Figure 5: Declining satisfaction with democracy | countries with declines of more
than 10 percentage points | 2011-2015
(% “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied”)
2 See Bratton, M., & Gyimah-Boadi, E. (2015). Political risks facing African democracies: Evidence from Afrobarometer. Afrobarometer Working Paper No. 157, at www.afrobarometer.org.
50%
46%
31%
50%
40%
58%62%
72%
30%
37%
30%
36%
21%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2011/2013 2014/2015
28-country
average
Mali
Tunisia
Namibia
Cameroon
Cote d’Ivoire
Togo
50%
46%
59%
43%
75%
60%74%
56%
45%
26%
50%
32%
60%
40%
61%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2011/2013 2014/2015
28-country
average
Liberia
Tanzania
Ghana
Cape Verde
Lesotho
Benin
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 7
Elections: A key democratic indicator
Elections are widely recognized as a key component of the democratic process, and the
perceived quality of elections has been found to be a strong indicator of popular ratings of
the quality of democracy. Afrobarometer asked respondents to rate the quality of the most
recent national election in their country (see the appendix for election year by country).
Across 28 countries, seven in 10 African citizens (70%) indicate that their elections were
“completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems” (Figure 6). About nine of 10
citizens in Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) share this view, while citizens in Ghana (46%),
Nigeria (46%), Liberia (54%), and Côte d’Ivoire (55%) are least likely to agree.
Figure 6: Quality of elections | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Respondents were asked: On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last
national election? (% who say “completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems”)
Freedom of speech limited in several countries
Another key indicator of the quality of a democracy is the enjoyment of basic freedoms of
speech, association, and vote choice. Across the 28 countries, a bare majority of 51% of
citizens say they are “completely free” to speak their minds (Figure 7). Another 26% feel
“somewhat free,” while 22% say they are “not at all” or “not very” free to say what they think.
Malawi (77%) and Ghana (73%) top the list of those who say they enjoy complete freedom of
expression; majorities share this view in 18 of the 28 countries. Freedom of speech is
perceived as most limited in in Swaziland (where only 18% say they are completely free),
Togo (26%), Zimbabwe (27%), Nigeria (28%), Burkina Faso (31%), and Côte d’Ivoire (31%).
9187
84 83 83 81 80 78 77 76 75 7570 70 69 69 68 67 66 64 62 61
58 56 56 55 54
46 46
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ma
uritiu
s
Se
ne
ga
l
Ma
da
ga
sca
r
Nig
er
Ma
li
Bu
run
di
Na
mib
ia
Ug
an
da
Bo
tsw
an
a
Sw
azi
lan
d
Leso
tho
Tan
zan
ia
Ma
law
i
Ave
rag
e
Tun
isia
Sie
rra
Le
on
e
Zim
ba
bw
e
Gu
ine
a
Be
nin
Bu
rkin
a F
aso
Ke
nya
Tog
o
Ca
me
roo
n
Za
mb
ia
Ca
pe
Ve
rde
Cô
te d
'Ivo
ire
Lib
eria
Nig
eria
Gh
an
a
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 8
Figure 7: Freedom of speech | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to say what you think?
4%
9%
9%
10%
10%
10%
12%
14%
15%
15%
16%
16%
16%
17%
19%
20%
22%
22%
23%
24%
24%
25%
28%
32%
38%
38%
39%
43%
59%
26%
21%
17%
23%
17%
12%
22%
33%
29%
14%
43%
24%
19%
28%
26%
23%
42%
26%
15%
44%
24%
31%
36%
9%
34%
30%
32%
30%
20%
70%
70%
73%
67%
72%
77%
65%
53%
53%
68%
41%
59%
65%
54%
53%
56%
36%
51%
62%
31%
53%
42%
35%
53%
26%
31%
28%
27%
18%
0%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
2%
3%
0%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
6%
2%
1%
1%
1%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Tanzania
Namibia
Ghana
Tunisia
Senegal
Malawi
Uganda
Benin
Liberia
Lesotho
Mauritius
Guinea
Botswana
Kenya
Niger
Cape Verde
Madagascar
Average
Zambia
Burkina Faso
Mali
Cameroon
Burundi
Sierra Leone
Togo
Côte d'Ivoire
Nigeria
Zimbabwe
Swaziland
Not at all or not very free Somewhat free Completely free Don’t know
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 9
Citizens are somewhat more confident in their freedom of political association. In half of the
countries, no more than one in 10 citizens say they are “not very” or “not at all” free (Figure
8). On average across 28 countries, 15% say they lack freedom of association, 21% feel
“somewhat free,” and 62% feel “completely free.” The most dramatic exceptions are
Swaziland (where 73% of citizens say they do not enjoy freedom of association) and
Zimbabwe (41% not free).
Figure 8: Lack of freedom of political association | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to join any political organisation you want?
(% who say “not at all free” or “not very free”)
73%
41%
24%
23%
22%
22%
19%
17%
16%
16%
15%
15%
13%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
8%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Swaziland
Zimbabwe
Nigeria
Togo
Madagascar
Cote d'Ivoire
Mauritius
Zambia
Cape Verde
Burundi
Burkina Faso
Average
Kenya
Cameroon
Tunisia
Guinea
Benin
Malawi
Lesotho
Sierra Leone
Uganda
Liberia
Mali
Namibia
Ghana
Botswana
Niger
Senegal
Tanzania
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 10
Voting freedom is reported to be considerably more robust. Nearly three-fourths (73%) say
they are completely free to vote as they choose, while 18% feel at least “somewhat free”
(Figure 9). But while 80% or more say they are completely free in 12 countries, in several
others confidence is considerably more circumscribed, including Zimbabwe (35% completely
free), Nigeria (49%), Côte d’Ivoire (54%), Burundi (55%), and Swaziland (56%). Just 8% report
that they do not enjoy any electoral freedom, although this number rises to more than one-
third (35%) in Zimbabwe. So while overall confidence in voting freedom is high, it is clear that
citizens in a number of countries still face significant barriers to voting for the candidate of
their choice.
Figure 9: Freedom to vote for candidate of their choice | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to choose who to vote for without feeling
pressured?
94%
89%
89%
86%
85%
85%
85%
85%
83%
82%
80%
80%
79%
77%
77%
77%
74%
73%
72%
72%
68%
61%
58%
57%
56%
55%
54%
49%
35%
3%
9%
6%
7%
13%
11%
10%
10%
7%
8%
18%
17%
17%
18%
15%
14%
24%
18%
21%
16%
21%
34%
30%
34%
29%
36%
30%
31%
29%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Malawi
Senegal
Tunisia
Sierra Leone
Namibia
Ghana
Botswana
Uganda
Lesotho
Zambia
Tanzania
Niger
Mali
Guinea
Kenya
Liberia
Mauritius
Average
Benin
Cape Verde
Cameroon
Madagascar
Togo
Burkina Faso
Swaziland
Burundi
Côte d'Ivoire
Nigeria
Zimbabwe
Completely free Somewhat free
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 11
Appendix
Country Month when Round 6
fieldwork was completed Last national election
prior to survey
Benin June 2014 2011
Botswana July 2014 2009
Burkina Faso May 2015 2012
Burundi October 2014 2010
Cameroon February 2015 2013
Cape Verde December 2014 2011
Côte d'Ivoire September 2014 2011
Ghana June 2014 2012
Guinea April 2015 2013
Kenya December 2014 2013
Lesotho May 2014 2012
Liberia May 2015 2011
Madagascar January 2015 2013
Malawi April 2014 2009
Mali December 2014 2013
Mauritius July 2014 2010
Namibia September 2014 2009
Niger April 2015 2011
Nigeria January 2015 2011
Senegal December 2014 2012
Sierra Leone June 2015 2012
Swaziland April 2015 2013
Tanzania November 2014 2010
Togo October 2014 2013
Tunisia May 2015 2014
Uganda May 2015 2011
Zambia October 2014 2011
Zimbabwe November 2014 2013
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 12
To further explore this data, please visit Afrobarometer's online data analysis facility at www.afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis.
Thomas Bentley is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the
Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. Email: [email protected]
Kangwook Han is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the
Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. Email: [email protected]
Peter Halley Penar is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the
Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. Email: [email protected]
Afrobarometer is produced collaboratively by social scientists from more than 30 African
countries. Coordination is provided by the Center for Democratic Development (CDD) in
Ghana, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Institute for
Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi in Kenya, and the Institute for Empirical
Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin. Michigan State University (MSU) and the
University of Cape Town (UCT) provide technical support to the network.
Core support for Afrobarometer Rounds 5 and 6 has been provided by the UK’s Department
for International Development (DFID), the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, the Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), and the World Bank.
For more information, please visit www.afrobarometer.org.
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 45 | 15 September 2015