dismantling project costing - gnssn home documents/workshop 11... · contents •detailed planning...
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Dismantling Project Costing
Algis Lencus
R2D2P Conference - Australia
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Contents
• Detailed planning and costing methods
• Moata costing
• Cost estimates for HIFAR D&D project
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Building a Cost Estimate
• Two choices:
– Detailed bottom-up estimate
– Rough top-down estimate
• Third choice:
– Leave it to a specialist
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Top-down Estimate
• Used for rough estimates prior to detailed
planning and used to assess viability of a
project
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Top-down Estimate
• Estimate based on costs from similar
decommissioning projects
• Scale costs to suit your reactor
• Similar to obtaining a cost for building by
square metre rates
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Top-down Estimate
• Scaling can be based on one or several factors:
– Likely quantity of waste (and likely need for remote
methods) (refer to reactor power, MW days, decay
period)
• Allow for
– exchange rates
– local labour rates
– local requirements
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Top-down Estimate
• Make use of sources such
as the international
research reactor database
to obtain decommissioning
costs of other reactors
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Bottom-up Estimate
• Developed to create a more comprehensive
and accurate estimate
• Requires detailed planning up front
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Detailed Planning
• Develop a WBS (Work Breakdown Structure)
or schedule with resource planning and detailed
expenses
• Developed from a proposed methodology
• Methodology developed from knowledge of
reactor
• Knowledge of reactor developed from local
knowledge, outside expertise and
characterisation
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Use a Standard WBS
Example breakdown
• Planning
• Regulatory submissions and approvals
• Site preparation including purchase of equipment (eg.
Radiation monitors)
• Dismantling
• Decontamination
• Waste management
• Delicensing and project closure
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Expand on Detail: Resource and Expenses
• Planning
• Labour
• Safety plan:
– 6 people each spending approx 50 hours over 6 months
(only 25min per day per person!) = 300 man hours
– 300 man hours @ $100/hr = $30,000
• 11 plans total of 3300 man hours: $330,000
• Expenses
• Investigative core drilling = $25,000
• Specialist consultant = $30,000
• Plus other expenses = $50,000
• Planning Cost estimate $435,000
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Implementation Costing
• Determine your decommissioning steps (forms part of
your WBS)
• Each step is estimated by using crews and reference
durations for similar activities on other
decommissioning projects (however, this detailed
information is difficult to obtain)
• Crew hours multiplied by local labour rates
• Plant and materials estimates based on local costs
and experience
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References for Cost Estimates
• A Proposed Standardised List of Items for Costing
Purposes in the Decommissioning of Nuclear
Installations
• Decommissioning of the Nuclear Facilities
at Risø National Laboratory
Descriptions and Cost Assessment
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Standardised List
01 PRE-DECOMMISSIONING ACTIONS
02 FACILITY SHUTDOWN ACTIVITIES
03 PROCUREMENT OF GENERAL EQUIPMENT AND MATERIAL
04 DISMANTLING ACTIVITIES
05 WASTE PROCESSING, STORAGE AND DISPOSAL
06 SITE SECURITY, SURVEILLANCE AND MAINTENANCE
07 SITE RESTORATION, CLEANUP AND LANDSCAPING
08 PROJECT MANAGEMENT, ENGINEERING AND SITE
SUPPORT
09 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
10 FUEL AND NUCLEAR MATERIAL
11 OTHER COSTS
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Standardised List - detail
04 DISMANTLING ACTIVITIES
04.1200 Dismantling operations on reactor vessel and internals
04.1300 Removal of primary and auxiliary systems
04.1301 Removal of primary and auxiliary systems in reactor facilities
04.1302 Dismantling and removal of contaminated equipment, piping, liners
and internal systems in non-reactor nuclear facilities
04.1400 Removal of biological/thermal shield
04.1500 Removal of other material/equipment from containment structure
and all other facilities, or removal of entire contaminated facilities
04.1600 Removal and disposal of asbestos
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Reality Checks
• A ‘reality check’ can be done by comparing calculated
cost with costs of similar projects in order to ensure
that the estimate is credible
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Moata Costing
• Budget based on a bottom-up cost estimate
• Estimate compared to costs of similar reactor projects
with respect to exchange rates and waste quantities
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Moata – Bottom-up Estimate Task Immediate Dismantling
Project Management $300k
Site Preparations $400k
Initial Surveys and Sampling $100k
Equipment $200k
Dismantling
Concrete doors and plugs
Concrete (reinforced)
Metal components
Graphite blocks
Lead
Fuel storage pit
Process pit
$50k
$700k
$400k
$70k
$10k
$250k
$20k
Decontamination $100k
Active Waste Relocation (Transfer and storage at ANSTO site only) $600k
Clean Waste Removal
(off site)
$50k
Exposure Control
(during dismantling)
$150k
Site Clean-up $50k
Final Survey and Report $300k
On-going Maintenance $0
Temporary relocation of offices and laboratories in B22 during dismantling. $100k
Contingency (approx. 20%) $750k
TOTAL $4.6 Million
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Moata Comparison with Others Reactor Cost
(Approx.)
Active
Waste
Dose (mSv)
Virginia P, USA US$0.6M 481GBq,
62 m3
79
UCLA R1, USA US$1.7M 651 GBq,
143 m3
38.7
THAR, Taiwan US$0.5M 0.14
The Universities Research Reactor,
Risley, UK
£4M comprising; £2M (dismantling)
£1M (waste)
£1M (fuel removal)
4662 GBq,
192 m3
64
JASON Reactor*,
Greenwich, UK
£7M comprising; £2M (management)
£2M (dismantling)
£1M (waste)
£2M (fuel removal)
60 kg ILW
116T LLW (approx. 50 m3)
1.25
University of Washington*, USA US$1.7M (’94 value) plus US$0.5M for decontaminating spills
Estimated
49 m3
Estimated
50 to 60
Iowa State University*, USA US$1M comprising; US$0.2M – Planning
US$0.6M – Dismantling
US$0.2M – Final survey
Estimated
34 m3 LLW
Estimated
24
Moata Estimated (See ER111484)
(a)ANSTO: $4.6M
(b)DE&S: US$1M
(c)NES: US$2.2M
(d)AEA Tech.: £5M
Estimated
1.2T ILW
(0.146 m3)
129T LLW (61 m3)
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Moata Schedule
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Moata Costing
• Cashflow forecast was developed from a resourced
schedule
• This lead to the formation of “planned value” and
ability to apply “earned value analysis”
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Moata Resource Costs
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Moata Cashflow
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
Nov-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
BCWS EV ACWP Comm
BCWS = Planned Expenditure from base date 14/1/08
EV = Earned Value
COMM = Actual + Commitment costs recorded by SAP
ACWP = Actual costs recorded by SAP
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Moata Actual Cashflow
Moata Actual Cashflow
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
17-Jun-07 29-Oct-08 13-Mar-10 26-Jul-11
Date
Accu
mu
late
d S
pen
d (
AU
D)
Site Preparation
Engage Primary
Contractor / ANSTO
preliminary
dismantling
Block dismantling
by Primary
Contractor
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Cost Estimate for HIFAR?
• Estimate for DR-3 - ~$51M (2005AUD) (includes waste
containers, but minimal processing and storage cost)
• 2005 estimate for HIFAR - ~$33M (2005AUD) (not
including waste processing & storage)
• 2012 “Class D” estimate for dismantling only = ~$20M
(2012AUD)
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Thank you
• Any Questions?