disentangling environmental variability from land m decisions c s...

PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENGINEERING & REMOTE SENSING November 2014 1005

Disentangling environmental variability from lanD management Decisions in changing semi-ariD savannas of southern africa

By narcisa g. PricoPe, michael W. binforD, anD John D. all

1006 November 2014 PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENGINEERING & REMOTE SENSING

geosPatial technologies anD global environmental change in southern africa'U�� 3ULFRSH�� FXUUHQWO\� DQ� DVVLVWDQW� SURIHVVRU� DQG� WKH� IRXQGHU�RI�WKH�6RFLR�(QYLURQPHQWDO�$QDO\VLV�/DE��6($/��DW�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�1RUWK�&DUROLQD�:LOPLQJWRQ�� KDV� EHHQ�ZRUNLQJ� LQ� VRXWKHUQ�Africa since being initially introduced to the region through an 16)�,*(57� �1DWLRQDO�6FLHQFH�)RXQGDWLRQ³,QWHJUDWLYH�*UDG-XDWH� (GXFDWLRQ� DQG� 5HVHDUFK� 7UDLQHHVKLS�� VHYHQ�ZHHN� ÀHOG�FRXUVH� LQ� ��6XEVHTXHQWO\�� VKH�ZRUNHG� RQ�KHU� GLVVHUWDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�UHJLRQ�XQGHU�WKH�VXSHUYLVLRQ�RI�'U��0LFKDHO�%LQIRUG�DQG�'U�� 0DUN� %URZQ�� +HU� UHVHDUFK� LQ� VRXWKHUQ� $IULFD� FRPELQHV�geospatial analyses of climatological and hydrologic data and various remotely-sensed datasets to create measures of ecosys-tem variability and adaptability to natural and anthropogenic FKDQJHV�LQ�D�WUDQVERXQGDU\�ZDWHUVKHG��WKH�&KREH�5LYHU��ORFDW-ed at the center of the world’s newest and largest transfrontier FRQVHUYDWLRQ� DUHDV�� 7KH� .DYDQJR�=DPEH]L� 7UDQVIURQWLHU� &RQ-VHUYDWLRQ�$UHD��.$=$�7)&$��OHJDOO\�HVWDEOLVKHG�LQ��LV�D�vast multi-nationally managed network of national parks, game management areas, and communal lands that encompasses an area of approximately 440,000 km��RI�%RWVZDQD��1DPLELD��=DP-ELD��=LPEDEZH��DQG�$QJROD��7KH�H[SUHVVHG�SXUSRVHV�IRU�WKH�FUH-DWLRQ�RI�.$=$�E\�WKH�PHPEHU�FRXQWULHV�ZHUH�WUL�IROG��WR�LPSURYH�the cooperative management of shared resources, to increase the area available for wildlife and plant populations, and to bring HFRQRPLF�EHQHÀWV�WR�WKH�ORFDO�FRPPXQLWLHV�DGMDFHQW�WR�SURWHFWHG�DUHDV��%HFDXVH�ORFDO�FRPPXQLWLHV�LQ�WKHVH�FRXQWULHV�DUH�SUHGRP-LQDQWO\�UHVRXUFH�GHSHQGHQW�RU�GHULYH�VXEVWDQWLDO�EHQHÀWV�IURP�ecotourism, changes in the health of the ecosystem translate into largely unbuffered detrimental effects for the human sys-WHP��0RUHRYHU��VRXWKHUQ�$IULFDQ�VHPL�DULG�VDYDQQDV�DUH�KLJKO\�variable environments where people have been adapting to the KDUVK�FRQGLWLRQV�WKURXJK�WKH�JHQHUDWLRQV��+RZHYHU��LQ�OLJKW�RI�past and ongoing environmental changes and increased climatic YDULDELOLW\�� WKHLU� DELOLW\� WR� DGDSW�KDV� EHFRPH� WKUHDWHQHG��2XU�collaborative work in this region, which has now expanded to in-FOXGH�VHYHUDO�FROOHDJXHV�IURP�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV�DQG�$IULFD�DQG�graduate students, is primarily focused on understanding how different land management regimes and environmental variabil-ity create different ecosystem responses in a semi-arid savanna and on determining what the most effective ways of measuring DQG�DWWULEXWLQJ�FKDQJH�LQ�VXFK�D�FRPSOH[�HFRV\VWHP�DUH�

:KLOH�FXUUHQW�SURMHFWV�RI�WKH�6($/DE�DQG�FROODERUDWRUV�KDYH�expanded to studying human-environment interactions and ad-aptation strategies across political boundaries throughout the .$=$�UHJLRQ��WKH�LQLWLDO�ZRUN�LQ�WKLV�UHJLRQ�ZDV�IRFXVHG�SULPDU-LO\�RQ�WKH�&KREH�5LYHU�%DVLQ��&5%��D�WUDQVERXQGDU\�ZDWHUVKHG�VKDUHG�EHWZHHQ�1DPLELD�DQG�%RWVZDQD��FKDUDFWHUL]HG�E\�D�PR-saic of land uses, including protected areas, forest reserves, and FRPPXQDO�ODQGV��3DUWLDOO\�FRQWDLQHG�LQ�WKH�&5%��&KREH�1DWLRQDO�3DUN��&13��HVWDEOLVKHG�LQ��LV�WKH�IRFDO�SRLQW�RI�WKH�.$=$�region and has one of the largest elephant populations in Africa

‘Elephants’ someone called softly but with

urgency.

We all silently dropped to the ground so

that our silhouettes didn’t attract them and

we watched as they crossed the horizon off

in the distance. The moment they were out

of sight, four of the team rushed back to our

truck, shaking in fear. The rest of us calmly but

quickly finished collecting our ground control

data and then hurried back to the vehicle.

Normally when you work in the national

parks of southern Africa, you bring a team of

two park rangers armed with semi-automatic

rifles to protect you from elephants and the

myriad of other animals that will kill you

without hesitation. However, the two rangers

we normally worked with had been killed by

a group of elephants the week before - guns

blazing futilely as they died. We had decided

to come out and collect some data without

support because our time was passing quickly

as things were being re-organized, but the fear

became too great and so we were forced to

wait until a new guard team could be made

available to us.

Working in southern Africa can be harsh and

potentially deadly because it seems that a lot

of different things want to kill you. Malaria,

sleeping sickness, and other diseases are

a danger. Animals smell you and savor the

odor. Even the plants claw at you and burn

your skin as you try to force your way through.

Bridge crossings over crocodile-filled water are

nothing more than small logs lashed together

and they sag and bend as the water becomes

deeper around you.

Fieldwork in southern Africa is harsh. But

this beautiful continent is home to some of the

world’s friendliest people and the collection of

wildlife is so incredible that you often feel as if

you have accidentally stepped onto a movie

set; we watched a hippo try to hide from a

giraffe behind a narrow tree, his face hidden

but his huge rear-end sticking out for all to see.

However, the giraffe had no fear and stepped

over the confused hippo.


�RYHU� �� LQGLYLG-XDOV�� 7KH� FRPPXQDO�lands in the basin (orga-QL]HG� DQG� PDQDJHG� DV�community-based orga-QL]DWLRQV�� DUH� SULPDULO\�used for subsistence ag-ULFXOWXUH��FDWWOH�JUD]LQJ��and photographic and KXQWLQJ�VDIDULV�

2XU� UHVHDUFK� SUR-posed that understand-ing underlying biophys-ical drivers of change by taking into account different management regimes in the two coun-tries and establishing the relative importance RI� ÁRRGLQJ� DQG� ÀUH� UH-gimes in driving veg-etation dynamics rep-resented an important step in understanding landscape-level change DW�WKH�UHJLRQDO�OHYHO��%\�using remote sensing to PDS� DQG� WKHQ� DQDO\]H�WKH� VSDWLDO� DQG� WHPSRUDO� YDULDELOLW\� RI� ÀUH� DQG� ÁRRGLQJ� UH-gimes across political boundaries, this research contributes to enhancing our understanding of local adaptation mechanisms to future environmental change in the context of increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation trends and increasing frequencies and intensities of El Niño episodes in southern Af-ULFD��%RNR�HW�DO��7KHVH�FRQWLQXLQJ�FKDQJHV�DUH�OLNHO\�WR�have a series of strong impacts on other components in semi-ar-id ecosystems that will, in turn, affect their ecology, structure, and function, making it imperative that we monitor and work RQ�XQGHUVWDQGLQJ�GULYHUV��LPSDFWV�DQG�HIIHFWV�RI�VXFK�FKDQJHV�

fire regimes changes in africa’s largest transfrontier conservation areaFires are an intrinsic component of many ecosystems through-RXW� WKH� ZRUOG�� DQG� IRU� WKH� VHPL�DULG� VDYDQQDV� RI� VRXWKHUQ�Africa, they are one of the controlling factors in maintaining the balance between grassy and woody vegetation (Bond and .HHOH\��8QGHUVWDQGLQJ�WKH�UROH�RI�ÀUHV�LQ�GULYLQJ�HFR-V\VWHP�G\QDPLFV�WKURXJK�WKH�LQÁXHQFH�RI�ÀUH�RQ�ODQG�FRYHU�change, atmospheric composition, and the global carbon cycle LV�D�NH\�IRFXV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�JOREDO�FKDQJH�UHVHDUFK�FRPPXQLW\��7KH�&4 grasslands, shrubs and woodlands of the savannas of Southern Africa, which are among the most frequently burnt HFRV\VWHPV�LQ�WKH�ZRUOG��DUH�DQ�H[SUHVVLRQ�RI�ÀUH�GLVWXUEDQF-HV�DW�YDULRXV�UHFXUUHQFH�UDWHV�LQ�WKH�ODQGVFDSH��%RQG�HW�DO��

6SHFLÀFDOO\� LQ� RXU� RQ�JRLQJ� ZRUN� RQ� ÀUH� UHJLPH� FKDQJH�DQDO\VHV��ZH�DVN�ZKHWKHU�GLIIHUHQW�ÀUH�PDQDJHPHQW�SROLFLHV�result in changes in the annual extent of burned area in the SURWHFWHG�DUHDV��3$��LQ�ÀYH�FRXQWULHV�RI�WKH�.DYDQJR�=DPEH]L�7UDQVIURQWLHU�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�$UHD��.$=$��7R�DGGUHVV�WKLV�LQL-WLDO�TXHVWLRQ��ZH�FUHDWHG�D�ÀUH�UHWXUQ�LQWHUYDO��)5,��PDS�IRU�WKH�FHQWUDO�.$=$�UHJLRQ��)LJXUH��IRU�WKH�ODVW�GHFDGH�WR�XQ-GHUVWDQG�WKH�JHQHUDO�WUHQGV�LQ�ÀUH�IUHTXHQF\�DQG�VHDVRQDOLW\�EHWZHHQ�QHLJKERULQJ�FRXQWULHV�ZLWK�GLIIHUHQW�ÀUH�SROLFLHV�DQG�management and to test whether there is an increasing trend

The expressed purposes for the creation of KAZA by the member countries were tri-fold: to improve the cooperative management of shared resources, to increase the area available for wildlife and plant populations, and to bring economic benefits to the local communities adjacent to protected areas.

Figure 1. Location of the study area in southern Africa (Source: Pricope 2013).


LQ�ÀUH�RFFXUUHQFHV�LUUHVSHFWLYH�RI�H[SUHVVHG�ÀUH�SROLFLHV�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�UHJLPHV��3ULFRSH�DQG�%LQIRUG��7KLV�)5,�ZDV� FUHDWHG�XVLQJ�02',6�%XUQHG�$UHD�3URGXFW�GDWD� �02-'��$��IRU�WKH�ODUJHU�DUHD�RI�FHQWUDO�.$=$�WR�DV-VHVV�DQQXDO�ÀUH�SDWWHUQV�LQ�SURWHFWHG�DUHDV��)LJXUH��

2XU�DQDO\VLV�RI� WKH�EXUQHG�DUHD�SURGXFW� IRU� WKH�SURWHFW-HG� DUHDV� RI� FHQWUDO�.$=$� UHYHDOV� WKDW� EHWZHHQ� �� DQG��NP� of these ecosystems burns on an annual basis, de-pending on the climatologic conditions, fuel load availability DQG�FRQGLWLRQ��LJQLWLRQ�DQG�RWKHU�IDFWRUV��)LJXUH��7KH�)5,�we calculated shows that parts of the two protected areas in $QJROD�DQG�=DPELD�H[SHULHQFH�KLJK�ÀUH�UHFXUUHQFH�LQWHUYDOV�IRU�WKH�ODVW�GHFDGH�UDQJLQJ�IURP��WR��\HDUV�RXW�RI��\HDUV�LQ�DSSUR[LPDWHO\��WR��RI�WKHLU�WRWDO�DUHD��0XGXPX�1D-WLRQDO�3DUN�LQ�1DPLELD�DOVR�H[SHULHQFHV�YHU\�KLJK�ÀUH�UHFXU-UHQFH�LQWHUYDOV�IRU�PRUH�WKDQ��RI�LWV�WRWDO�DUHD��IROORZHG�E\�VRPH�FRPPXQDO�DUHDV�LQ�WKH�&DSULYL��7KLV�DQDO\VLV�VKRZV�WKDW�ÀUH�IUHTXHQFLHV�KDYH�LQFUHDVHG�DFURVV�DOO�ODQG�XVH�FDWH-JRULHV�RI�(DVWHUQ�&DSULYL�DQG�QRUWKHDVWHUQ�%RWVZDQD�GXULQJ�WKH�ODVW�GHFDGH��ZLWK�WKH�PRVW�VLJQLÀFDQW�LQFUHDVHV�RFFXUULQJ�LQ� 6HSWHPEHU� LUUHVSHFWLYH� RI� WKH� ÀUH�PDQDJHPHQW� SROLF\� RI�HDFK�FRXQWU\��7KLV�PD\�LQGLFDWH�WKDW�WKH�XQGHUO\LQJ�FDXVH�IRU�the changes documented can be attributed to climatic changes DQG�YDULDELOLW\��

using remote sensing to unDerstanD the Dynamics of flooDing in semi-ariD savannas 7KH�&KREH�5LYHU�%DVLQ� LV� D� WULEXWDU\� RI� WKH�=DPEH]L�5LYHU�FKDUDFWHUL]HG�E\�DQ�XQXVXDO�ÁRZ�UHJLPH�FRQVLVWLQJ�RI�YDULDEOH�ÁRRG� SXOVHV� DW� GLIIHUHQW� WLPHV� RI� WKH� \HDU� IURP� ULYHUV�ZLWK�KHDGZDWHUV� LQ� WKH� WURSLFDO� UHJLRQV� RI� $QJROD� DQG� =DPELD��QDPHO\� WKH� .ZDQGR� DQG� =DPEH]L� 5LYHUV� �)LJXUH� �� 7KLV�XQXVXDO� ÁRZ� UHJLPH�� SUHYLRXVO\� UHODWLYHO\� XQGRFXPHQWHG�and explained below, is mainly the result of geo-tectonic PRGLÀFDWLRQV�WKURXJK�WLPH�DQG�LV�FXUUHQWO\�UHLQIRUFHG�E\�WKH�presence of relatively active fault lines in the region, such DV� WKH� /LQ\DQWL� )DXOW�� ZKLFK� LV� WKH� PDLQ� JHRORJLF� FRQWURO�IRU� WKH� SUHVHQW�GD\� ORFDWLRQ� RI� WKH� &KREH�/LQ\DQWL� FKDQQHO��*XPEULFKW�HW�DO��6LJQLÀFDQW�YHJHWDWLRQ�FKDQJHV�KDYH�occurred in this region over the last thirty years, possibly FDXVHG� E\� VLJQLÀFDQW� LQFUHDVHV� LQ� ZLOGOLIH� SRSXODWLRQV��decreases in rainfall and river inundation extent, and LQFUHDVLQJ�KXPDQ�DQG�FDWWOH�SRSXODWLRQV��5XWLQD�HW�DO��)LJXUH� �� +XPDQ� VHWWOHPHQWV� DQG� WKHLU� WUDGLWLRQDO� ZD\�of life are impacted by these changes and displacements of SRSXODWLRQ�DUH�EHFRPLQJ�D�FXUUHQW�RFFXUUHQFH�LQ�WKH�UHJLRQ��

:HWODQGV� DQG� VHDVRQDOO\�LQXQGDWHG� ÁRRGSODLQV� LQ� VHPL�arid environments play major roles in the regional and global

Figure 2. Map of central Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) showing the spatial extent of a fire recurrence index (FRI) calculated using monthly MODIS Burned Area data from 2000 to 2010 for all land use categories in the region. The scores which make up the FRI represent the number of years an area is burned aggregated from monthly spatial extents of burning (Source: Pricope and Binford, 2012).


Understanding the role of fires in driving ecosystem dynamics through the influence of fire on land cover change, atmospheric composition, and the global carbon cycle is a key focus within the global change research community.

Figure 3. The central Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) in Southern Africa, showing the protected areas and other land management categories as designated by the World Database on Protected Areas (Source: Pricope and Binford, 2012).

Figure 4. A) Photo showing an area of Mopane coleospermum woodland used for cattle grazing in the communal lands of eastern Zambezi Region of Namibia still under inundation in May 2014 and B) Photo showing the Chobe River floodplain in northern Botswana, critical habi-tat for large herds of African elephants (Loxodonta africana).


biogeochemical cycling of methane and carbon dioxide, habitat diversity, hydrologic cycles and their LQÁXHQFH�RQ�KXPDQ�GLVHDVH�DQG�OLYHOLKRRGV�VXSSRUW�V\VWHPV� WKURXJK� FRQWUROV� RQ� ÀVKHULHV� SURGXFWLYLW\��ZDWHU� DYDLODELOLW\� DQG� ÁRRG� UHFHVVLRQ� DJULFXOWXUH��$SSOHWRQ� HW� DO�� :KLOH� WKH� LQWHUDFWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�SUHFLSLWDWLRQ��GURXJKW��ÀUH��DQG�JUD]LQJ�RQ�arid environments has been a subject of considerable UHVHDUFK��OHVV�LV�NQRZQ�DERXW�WKH�LPSDFW�RI�ÁRRGLQJ��RU� WKH� ODFN�RI�ÁRRGLQJ� LQ�ÁRRG�DGDSWHG�HFRV\VWHPV��and how it interacts with other factors in modifying vegetation structure and driving landscape dynamics �:HVWEURRNH� DQG� )ORUHQWLQH�� 0RQLWRULQJ�surface water resources using satellite imagery is an increasingly important tool for prediction of ÁRRGV�DQG�GURXJKWV��$OO�DQG�<RRO��9HJHWDWLRQ�LQGLFHV��VXFK�DV�WKH�RQHV�ZH�XWLOL]HG�LQ�WKLV�LQVWDQFH�WR� VWXG\�ÁRRGLQJ� UHJLPH� FKDQJHV� ²� WKH� QRUPDOL]HG�GLIIHUHQW� YHJHWDWLRQ� LQGH[� �1'9,�� DQG� HQKDQFHG�YHJHWDWLRQ� LQGH[� �(9,�� ²� UHSUHVHQW� FRQWLQXRXV�variables related to spatially and temporally variable land productivity or vegetation biomass and have a very distinct spectral signature for water as opposed WR�ODQG�

$V� D� ÀUVW� VWHS� WRZDUGV� XQGHUVWDQGLQJ� WKH� UHODWLYH�importance of different drivers of change in vegetation dynamic, we asked what the intra-annual timing and VSDWLDO� GLVWULEXWLRQ� RI� LQXQGDWLRQ� LQ� WKH�&5%� LV� UHODWLYH� WR�the distribution of regional precipitation and discharge in WKH�WZR�PDLQ�FRQWULEXWLQJ�ULYHUV� �WKH�=DPEH]L�DQG�.ZDQGR�5LYHUV��DQG�ZKHWKHU�ZH�FRXOG�PHDVXUH�FKDQJH�LQ�LQXQGDWLRQ�H[WHQW� RYHU� WKH� ODVW� WKUHH� GHFDGHV"� 7R� DGGUHVV� WKHVH�questions, several techniques and remotely-sensed datasets ZHUH�UHTXLUHG��7KHVH�LQFOXGHG�GUDLQDJH�GHOLQHDWLRQ��YDULRXV�LPDJH�WKUHVKROGLQJ�WHFKQLTXHV�SHUIRUPHG�RQ�$GYDQFHG�9HU\�+LJK�5HVROXWLRQ�5DGLRPHWHU��$9+55��1'9,�DQG�0RGHUDWH�5HVROXWLRQ� ,PDJLQJ� 6SHFWURUDGLRPHWHU� �02',6�� (9,� GDWD�DW� ��GD\� UHVROXWLRQ� IURP� �� WR� �� WUDLQLQJ� VDPSOHV�FROOHFWHG�GXULQJ��DQG��)LJXUH��DQG�YDULRXV�other hydrologic, climatologic and ancillary geospatial GDWDVHWV�IRU�WKH�ODUJHU�=DPEH]L�ZDWHUVKHG��VHH�3ULFRSH��IRU�FRPSOHWH�GHWDLOV�RQ�PHWKRGV��

7KH� UHPRWHO\�VHQVHG� GDWD�� DLGHG� E\� PHWHRURORJLFDO� DQG�hydrological analyses, have allowed us to establish the intra-DQQXDO�ÁRRGLQJ�UHJLPH�LQ�WKH�V\VWHP��)LJXUH��7KH�=DPEH]L�5LYHU�SXVKHV�YDULRXV�DPRXQWV�RI�ZDWHU�EDFN�LQWR�WKH�&KREH��GHSHQGLQJ� RQ� LWV� GLVFKDUJH� ZKLOH�� GXULQJ� VHFRQGDU\� ÁRRG�SXOVHV�� &5%� UHFHLYHV� ZDWHU� WKURXJK� VSRUDGLF� FRQQHFWLRQV�IURP�/DNH�/LDPEH]L� DQG� WKH�/\QLDQWL� FKDQQHO�� GLUHFWO\� IHG�E\� ÁRRG� ZDWHUV� IURP� WKH� .ZDQGR� 5LYHU� PDNLQJ� WKHLU� ZD\�LQWR�0DPLOL�:HWODQGV��2QFH�WKH�SHDN�GLVFKDUJH�LQ�WKH�PDLQ�WUXQN�RI�WKH�=DPEH]L�EHJLQV�WR�UHFHGH��DQG�GHSHQGLQJ�DOVR�RQ�WKH�DPRXQW�RI�ZDWHU�EHLQJ�SXVKHG�IRUZDUG�IURP�WKH�.ZDQGR�WKURXJK�WKH�/LQ\DQWL�FKDQQHO�DQG�/DNH�/LDPEH]L�LQWR�&5%��WKH�&KREH�WKHQ�ÁRZV�IRUZDUG�LQWR�WKH�=DPEH]L��EHFRPLQJ�D�

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While the interaction between precipitation, drought, fire, and grazing on arid environments has been a subject of considerable research, less is known about the impact of flooding, or the lack of flooding in flood-adapted ecosystems, and how it interacts with other factors in modifying vegetation structure and driving landscape dynamics.

Figure 5. Training sample data collection during the most recent field season – marking the edge of the flood in the Zambezi Region of Namibia; pictured, Dr. Pricope and graduate student Jeri J. Burke (photo by Dr. Andrea Gaughan).


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Figure 6. The spatial distribution of inundation in the Chobe-Zambezi-Mamili

system during 2009, with September and October missing due to low spatial

extent of flooding. Areas of blue indicate the distribution of flooded pixels, while

areas of green indicate mixed pixels (Source: Pricope 2013).


1'9,� VWDQGDUG� QRUPDO� GHYLDWH� YDOXHV� VKRZ� UHJLRQV� ZLWK�KLJKHU� YHJHWDWLRQ� SURGXFWLYLW\��ZKLOH� ORZHU�1'9,� VWDQGDUG�normal deviate values show areas with lower vegetation SURGXFWLYLW\��$UHDV�WKDW�GLVSOD\�JUHDWHU�GHSDUWXUHV�IURP�WKH�PHDQ�1'9,� DUH�� LQ� WKHRU\�� DUHDV�ZLWK�PRUH� KHWHURJHQHRXV�YHJHWDWLRQ� FRYHU�� DV� LGHQWLÀHG� E\� WKH� PHDQ�YDULDQFH� SORWV��,Q�JHQHUDO��WKH�SDWWHUQV�LQ�)LJXUH��UHYHDO�KLJKHU�YHJHWDWLRQ�productivity in the seasonally-inundated parts of both the HDVWHUQ�&DSULYL�6WULS�RI�1DPLELD�DQG�RI�0DPLOL�1DWLRQDO�3DUN�LQ�WKH�VRXWK�ZHVWHUQ�SDUW�RI�&5%��DV�ZHOO�DV�LQ�PXFK�RI�WKH�&KREH�)RUHVW�5HVHUYH�DQG�WKH�LQWHULRU�SDUWV�RI�&KREH�1DWLRQDO�3DUN��&RQVLVWHQWO\�ORZ�YHJHWDWLRQ�SURGXFWLYLW\�DUHDV�LQ�&5%�are in the communal lands of both countries and particularly LQ�DUHDV�DGMDFHQW�WR�/DNH�/LDPEH]L�RQ�WKH�1DPLELDQ�VLGH�RI�the river where population densities are relatively high (see 3ULFRSH�HW�DO��IRU�PRUH�GHWDLOV��

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Figure 7. Spatial patterns of growing season standardized NDVI values for CRB for four years of highest vegetation variability, in terms of mean and standard deviation. (Source: Pricope et al., 2015)

array of available geospatial technologies to provide support for mitigating and adapting to these changes currently and in WKH�IXWXUH��7KH�6RFLR�(QYLURQPHQWDO�$QDO\VLV�/DE��6($/��at 81&:�LV�DQ�LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\�ODE�HQJDJHG�LQ�RQ�JRLQJ�UHVHDUFK�on human-environment interactions in southern and eastern $IULFD��1HSDO�DQG�WKH�8QLWHG�6WDWHV��:H�LQYLWH�FROODERUDWRUV�DQG�prospective graduate students interested in working on human-HQYLURQPHQW� LQWHUDFWLRQV� IURP� D� YDULHW\� RI� SHUVSHFWLYHV��:H�also work collaboratively with the $PHULFDQ�&OLPEHU�6FLHQFH�3URJUDP��$&63�, an integrated research effort that combines remote sensing with extensive data-collection from a variety of VFLHQWLÀF�SDUWQHUV��0RUH� LQIRUPDWLRQ� FDQ�EH� IRXQG�DERXW� WKH�$&63�DW�ZZZ�PRXQWDLQVFLHQFH�RUJ and we invite collaborators LQ�DOO�GLVFLSOLQHV��7KURXJK�D�VHULHV�RI�3(56�+LJKOLJKW�$UWLFOHV��$OO� HW� DO�� &ROH� HW� DO�� 6FKPLWW� HW� DO�� ZH�are periodically sharing our work in diverse environments IURP�WURSLFDO�UDLQIRUHVWV�WR�KLJK�PRXQWDLQ�JODFLHUV�LQ�&HQWUDO�$PHULFD��WKH�+LPDOD\DV��$QGHV�DQG�$IULFD��


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authorsNarcisa G. Pricope, Department of Geography and Geology, 8QLYHUVLW\� RI� 1RUWK� &DUROLQD��:LOPLQJWRQ�� 1RUWK� &DUROLQD��SULFRSHQ#XQFZ�HGX�

Michael W. Binford ��'HSDUWPHQW�RI�*HRJUDSK\��8QLYHUVLW\�RI�)ORULGD��*DLQHVYLOOH��)ORULGD��John D. All, Department of Geography and Geology, Western .HQWXFN\�8QLYHUVLW\��%RZOLQJ�*UHHQ��.HQWXFN\�

disentangling environmental variability from land m decisions c s...

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