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Why election is highly unpredictable this time?

The 11 May elections will be different from any that have been held in Pakistan before. And it's not only because for the first time an elected government will finish its term and hand over power to a democratically elected successor. For decades Pakistani politics has consisted of a series of military regimes interspersed with governments run by two parties: the Bhuttos' Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Sharifs' Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).And as millions of Pakistanis have repeatedly complained, the PPP and the PML-N have been little more than family businesses generating vast fortunes for a tiny and fabulously rich ruling elite.

But this election contains new, unpredictable elements. Computer To many critics and analysts the upcoming election in Pakistan is highly unpredictable. They have numerous solid reasons to advocate the view point. The vast majority of the analysts is of the view that there are many stake holder and factors which would badly affect not only the turn out but also the result.The following facotors are of prominently important:1. Talbanization

Firstly, the taliban facotor by upsetting all social norms, moral values, cultural & ethical beleif has penetrated deep into pakistani society and has left its presence in its ugly shapein all walks of life. The talibans after failing in winning the sympathies of general masses in Pakistan and internatinal community alike,(A deciding element in wining or losing a war) are now using different techniques to emerge as the power house of terror by terroring the people through bom blasts, sucide bombing and target killing throughout Pakistan. They have successfully proved that they still retain the capacity and ability to strike whenever and wherever they want to. This strategy of terroring innocent civilians has worked out remarkably well and is playing a key role by showing a massive success in keeping people inside their houses instead of coming out for voting by putting their lives at stake for they are daring to risk to go against the taliban whem they dont have any other choice.

2. Poor Governance

Secondly, the Zardari governements last five years term has been considered by analysts as the worst governement in the history of Pakistan. The rampat corruption, inefficencey, the bankruptcy of national institutions, energy crisis, poor foreign & interior policies have badly affected the peoples faith in a democratic values and governement. They will prefer to stay at home instead of risiking their lives for nothing better but the same faces with new promises for them there seems no hope that may bring an immediate end to their suffering and miseries. A recent survey by BBC reveals that more than 60% youth of Pakistan will prefer an islamist governemnet to democracy in its presesnt form so there are very rare chances of a massive turn out3. Military dictatorship Thirdly, the long autonomous dictatorship of military rulers, ranging from Ayub khan to Pervezz Musharaf, has left democratic institutions in a state of limbo. The police, army railway, education health, in short all state institutions are in a critical condition. These institutes failure to provide services to the common people at their door step has damaged democratic value very badly. This attitude and behaviour ironically has played a major role in dividing people on all national issues, like democracy, heath, defence and education. Now every individual Pakistani citizen thinks differently than the other & prefers his personal interests & affairs on national interests due to the failure to help people to build up their faith in democratic values. This military dictatorships has failed to achieve any distinction but is successful in influencing people to lose faith in democracy, as a result they have no desire to raise their voice despite acute suffering. 1. Talabian a minority

However the situations is not as dim as it is depicted above to some optimsitc analysts. They agree that to some extent it is true and such factors are making election vounverable and higly unpredicatble, but they argue that the taliban factor is less than 1% of pakistani population. Most of the pakistani are democratic mind set. They wanna see their country progressive, higly develop and moderate where their young generations have the access to all basic facilities like education, health, employment and security so they are quite optimistic that this time the turn out would be the highest in the history of Pakistan and this turn out will mostly consist of youths of (20-35) who will put their weight in Imran Khans Tareek-in-Saf.2. Fruits of Democracy

The analysts do agree with massive corruption in Zardari government, but they onion that people are also not mired with happiness with dictators autocratic regimes. The majority of the people now firmly believe with strong conviction that the present crippling condition of the country is due to continuous military intervention in civilian affairs with short intervals that lasted for decades. The Analysts mark a clear & vital change in peoples mood and it is an indication of revival of a democratic government that would work only on one point agenda of progressive Pakistan so they will turn out in massive number to make sure that their candidates mark a win to change present state of affairs in the country. 4. Corruption

The natural election polls worldwide indicate that current Zardari government will hardly win a few seats in national and provincial assemblies in upcoming general election. They call corruption a sole cause of this massive failure. The Pakistani people now tired of baseless slogans and want a real change in their country where every common citizen can get all basic need like education, job health and security. They believe that this change is only possible through a democratic government, therefore they will turn to polling station and this will not make election highly unpredictable because people will choose their representative this time on the basses of merit.I personally feel that the election will not be so highly unpredictable because the Pakistani people have long been impatiently waiting for a change. This election is going to give them a chance to bring that change. They will come out in huge crowds to support the leaders of their choice not on the bases of any party or ideology but on the bases of good governance and progressive policies for they know that if Pakistan wants to survive and come out of this triangular problem (Corruption, security and economy) they must support a leader who has vision and ability to put the nation on the right track.

Whether election results is predictable or unpredictable one thing is quite evident that the only way forward for Pakistan is democracy whether it may be in its worst form like that of Zardari (2008-2013) government. This is the democracy that will set a course for progressive and modern Pakistan where Taliban will have no role, where women will stand shoulder to shoulder with their men, where poverty will only be in dreams and every citizen will get his rights at its door steps.

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