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Capital Budgeting
Economic concepts and finance
decision-making tools
Building Blocks of Knowledge
Time value of money – a dollar
in the future is worth less than a
dollar in hand now
Net present value
1. NPV = PV of cash flow
benefits– Investment cost
2. Accept project if NPV > $0
Financial Statements
Cash is king
What is this module about?
Integrates several
topics in Corporate
Finance
– NPV
– Discounted cash-
flow (DCF) analysis
– Project analysis
Capital Budgeting
Investment decisions involving capital assets
(tangible property, including durable goods,
equipment, buildings, installations, land) .
Capital refers to the fixed assets of an organization
(factories, hospitals, schools, and their major
equipment fit into this category),
Capital Budgeting (more)
A budget is a plan which explains the projected cash flows during some future period.
A capital budget is therefore an outline of planned expenditures on fixed assets, and capital budgeting is the whole process of analyzing projects and deciding whether they should be included in the capital budget
Capital Budgeting - Public Sector
Capital budgeting is done in the public sector too,
although it is not always referred to as such.
Economic analysis and investment analysis are
synonymous terms that one my hear.
Cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis
play an important role in the process of capital
budgeting
Capital budgeting decisions are
among the most important ones
made by managers and
executives.
Importance
Results of investments in plant and other assets
continue for many years.
Once these decisions are made, the organization
loses some of its flexibility.
Once a major piece of equipment is purchased, the
organization is “locked in” to using it for the long term.
Importance (more)
Errors in the forecast need for big ticket assets can have serious consequences
Imagine a factory or hospital being built, or a school established, and then there is not enough demand to
utilize the services.
Conversely, what happens if not enough is spent. Inadequate capacity in a business, hospital or school
can have disastrous results.
Importance (even more)
Timing is another reason that good capital budgeting is so essential.
Essential assets need to be ready to come “on-line” when needed. Early arrivals cause extra expenses
that will strain resources.
Funding of such major projects involves very substantial expenditures. Large amounts of money
are not available instantaneously in any organization, be it a large corporation, school district or the federal
government.
Capital budgeting has become more
effective, and more fun, during the past
decade
Used to be math and manpower intensive, because the underlying theory needs a lot of calculations
Nowadays, most modern organizations are able to use computers to transform data to information
Capital budgeting used to take man years of work, mostly in manual calculations. Now capital budgeting is done in hours with spreadsheets
“What was once a budget
exercise becomes an
analysis of policy” (Peter
Drucker)
Steps in the Capital Budgeting Process
1. Determine the economic life of the project or alternatives you are considering.
2. Estimate their Incremental Cash Flows
3. Determine the discount rate.
4. Calculate Net Present Value
5. Apply the appropriate criterion to arrive at an initial preference
More Steps in the Capital Budgeting Process
6. Do Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
7. Interpret the results of the basic analysis and the sensitivity/scenario analysis, and make a decision.
8. If you decide to acquire the use of an asset, evaluate: lease versus buy
9. Check to make sure you can afford your decision by putting it in the organization’s budget.
10. Implement & Verify your decision.
Capital Budgeting Decision making
Concepts you must understand to be able to
participate:
– incremental cash flows
– the time value of money and
– sensitivity analysis
Incremental Cash Flows
Two Rules
Annual cash flow, and not accounting profits or costs, are to be used. Depreciation and the need for Working Capital are causes of major differences between profits and cash flow
Only Incremental cash flows are relevant for evaluating investment projects.
Only those cash flows that would result directly from a decision to accept a project are considered
Working Capital
The payroll needs to be paid before revenues from
the days work are received
Working capital is the cash you need to pay
expenses before the benefits are realized
Taxes and Depreciation
Taxes are a fact of life, and need to be considered in
all financial decisions
Depreciation is an expense that is not a negative
cash flow; to the contrary depreciation results in a tax
shield (a positive cash flow) that offsets taxes to
some extent
Incremental Cash Flows Example
A firm considering the establishment of a branch office in a newly developing section of a city
Incremental cash flows will consist of the costs of investment and operating the new office, costs that it would not have been incurred unless the project was undertaken.
It will also include the revenues derived from the business, benefits that would not have been realized
otherwise.
Incremental Cash Flows
Three conceptual problems
Sunk costs
Opportunity costs and
Externalities.
Sunk Costs
Sunk costs are cash outlays that have already been
incurred and cannot be recovered regardless of any
present or future decision.
Sunk costs are not incremental costs and should not
be included in capital budgeting analysis.
Sunk Cost Example
The firm and its branch office decision.
Suppose it hired a consulting firm two years ago to
do a site analysis. The $75,000 they paid is irrelevan
No matter whether or not they decide to build their
new branch office.
Easier said than done
It may be psychologically impossible for policy makers to ignore sunk costs for future decisions, even though it is accepted practice in higher circles.
There is a natural tendency to continue with a course of action, unable to see that it was incorrect, even when there is evidence to show the project is doomed to fail.
The term used for this behavioral process is escalation of commitment
Opportunity costs
Consider the firm with the branch office decision.
Suppose they own land upon which the branch could be built.
Should they ignore the cost of the land because they will not have a cash outlay to acquire it?
No, because if they don’t use the land they could sell it, for let us say $100,000.
An opportunity cost is a benefit lost
Opportunity cost is the maximum worth of an asset
among possible alternative uses
Opportunity cost is thus a cash flow that could be
generated from assets the organization already owns
provided they are not used for the project in question
Externalities
Externality is an economic term, which comes from
the idea that we should account for the direct effects,
whether positive or negative, on someone’s welfare
that arise as a by-product of some other person’s or
firm’s activity
Synonyms are neighborhood, interactive or spillover
effects
Externalities (more)
Consider the firm’s present customers who might use
the new branch office. Business they do at the
branch will reduce business at the main office. That
effect needs to be accounted for in the analysis.
Branch office incremental revenues should be
reduced by the amount of decreased revenues at the
main office, say $25,000/yr.
Summary - Economic Concepts for use
in discounted cash flow analysis
Do use – Incremental Cash inflows
and outflows
– External benefits/costs
– Opportunity costs
Do not include – Accounting profits
– Sunk costs
Time Value of Money
What do you do with future incremental cash flows of
a project?
Calculate their Net Present Value!
– Start with displaying them on a time line
Example
A Firm invests $500,000 in a new branch next year, estimates it would return a net* of $100,000 ($500,000 in revenues offset by $400,000 in expenses) annually beginning a year later.
Sunk costs are not included. A $100,000 opportunity cost is added to the initial investment for a first year total cost of $600,000.
$25,000/yr. external cost of the reduced revenues at the home office should be accounted for.
*i.e. the effects of taxes and depreciation are included
Time Line: Incremental Cash Flows for the New Branch Office Project
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Cash Flow ($600k) 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k
Underlying Data & Calculations for the New Branch Office Project
Investment $500k
Opportunity Cost 100k
External Cost 25k 25k 25k 25k 25k 25k 25k 25k 25k
Operations Cost* 400k 400k 400k 400k 400l 400k 400k 400k 400k
Revenues 500k 500k 500k 500k 500k 500k 500k 500k 500k
Net Cash In (out) (600k) 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k 75k
*Includes effects of taxes and depreciation
The dilemma facing the firm
Do you invest something now with a promise of a return in the future?
It’s not a simple case of foregoing $600,000 and recovering $650,000($75,000 x 9) over the next 9 years.
Dollars received in the future cannot be equated to dollars spent in the near term.
Money in hand has more value than a like amount of money in the future because of the opportunity it represents. The challenge is how to account for this time value of money.
Calculating the Project’s NPV
Determine the discount rate
Calculate the present value of each year’s cash flow
Sum PV of future cash flows, then subtract the
investment to get NPV
Discount rates are estimates of an
organization’s cost of capital
If you as an individual were going to invest in a
project, the alternative use of your money would be
the clue to your cost of capital.
A firm’s cost of capital depends on where it would get
the cash to fund the project.
Firm’s cost of capital
If it borrowed it, the cost of capital would be the after tax interest rate it pays on a loan or the bonds it issues.
If the business sold more stock to raise the money, the cost of capital would be the rate of return the stockholders expect to get.
Cost of capital
If the project is funded with cash from the company’s
accounts, then the cost of capital would be the
estimated rate of return on alternative investments.
Often, businesses get money from all three sources.
When this is the case, they estimate their cost of
capital by a weighted average calculation.
Riskier Projects > Higher Discount Rate
Weighted average cost
of capital is a good
discount rate for
average risk projects
Higher risk projects
should use a higher
than average cost of
capital
NPV of the Firm’s Project
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Net
Cash
Flow
$
(600)
K
75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75
PVFactor
7%
1.000 .935 .873 .816 .763 .713 .666 .623 .582 .544
PV
@7%
$
(600)
70 66 61 57 53 50 47 44 41
NPV $
(111)
K
Calculating NPV
Can use the Formula
Tables (as done on the previous slide)
Calculator
Spreadsheets make it really easy
Making an Initial Decision
Follow a criterion, or decision rule.
Which rule to follow depends upon the
circumstances.
If you are in business and your objective is to turn a
profit and increase shareholder’s wealth, the rule is
simple: you accept any project that has a positive net
present value
Special Rule
If projects are mutually exclusive, then you choose
among them by picking the one with the highest
positive net present value
Mutually exclusive projects are ones that would not
be chosen together, like building a bridge and buying
ferry boats to traverse the same route.
Sensitivity Analysis
Nothing is certain in the future. Since that is where
the consequences of capital budgeting decisions
occur, we must challenge the assumptions underlying
our calculations.
We know estimates are wrong. Its a matter of how
wrong they have to be to cause us to make a bad
decision.
Definition
Sensitivity analysis in general refers to a repetition of
analysis using different values for uncertain factors.
If a reasonable change in an assumed value results
in a change in preference among choices, then the
decision is said to be sensitive to that assumption or
that variable
How to do “what if”
In capital budgeting, sensitivity analysis measures the effect of changes to a particular variable, say annual operating cost, on a project’s present value
All variables are fixed at their expected values, except one. That one variable is then changed, often by specified percentages, and the resulting effect on present value is noted
Sensitivity Analysis Routine
Spreadsheets and contemporary PC technology
make the performance of sensitivity analysis a piece
of cake.
Excel is ideally suited for sensitivity analysis. Once
a model is created, it is very easy to change the
values of variables and obtain new results.
Usefulness
Identify those variables which potentially have the greatest impact on success or failure
Helps policy makers focus attention on these variables that are probably most important.
The sources of the estimates of these variables should be further scrutinized, and alternative sources sought.
Sensitivity Analysis
Above all else, it serves as a risk assessment tool
If a reasonable change in an estimate causes the
outcome to go from a success to a failure, then the
decision is risky
How To Handle Uncertainty
Sensitivity Analysis - Analysis of the effects of changes
in single variables (sales, costs, etc.) on a project.
Scenario Analysis - Project analysis given a particular
combination of assumptions.
– Worst Case Scenario
– Best Case Scenario
– Most Likely Scenario
Summary
Capital budget decisions are among the most important ones a firm can make
Steps. For each project:
1. Estimate economic life
2. Estimate Incremental Cash Flows
3. Determine the discount rate
4. Calculate Net Present Value
5. Order preference of all projects based on NPV
6. Do Sensitivity & scenario analysis
7. Interpret the results of the basic analysis and the sensitivity/scenario analysis, and make a decision.
8. Decide: lease or buy
9. Plan to implement what you can afford
10.Follow up, verify and adjust
Capital Budget Decision Process
Discounted cash-flow analysis
NPVInitial
Choice
Criterion
StartSensitivi ty &
Scenario Analysis
End: decision
Accounting Projections
(Income Statement)
Determine Relevant
Incremental Cash Flows
Determine Discount Rate
Cost of Capi tal
Do the Project?
Lease or buy
assessts?
yes
no