disclaimer - memberize update files/2016...disclaimer az. r.e.i.a., inc. hereafter called the...

DisclaimerAZ. R.E.I.A., Inc. hereafter called the “Association”, does not render legal,

tax, economic, or investment advice. The Association does not investigate its members, nor vouch for nor make representation as to its honesty, integrity, reliability, motives and or resources of its members, officers, directors, employees, agents, and/or contractors. Person should consult his or her own counsel, accountant, and other advisors as to risk and legal, tax, economic, investment and other matters concerning real estate and other investments.

Notice: Products, services, investment opportunities, etc. may be offer by members, guests, business associates and/or speakers during this meeting. The Association does not endorse any product, service, investment opportunity, etc. that may be offered either formally or informally. Attendees should complete their own due diligence and seek advice from their accountant, financial advisor, attorney or others prior to doing business with anyone.

485

375

323306

368

428 437

501521

545

485508

521

469

500 507

457482 491

544

494

352

232

188

150 150170

214

238

208 204 205 207 209 217 216 217 223 226 231 237 238

0

100

200

300

400

500

6002

00

8

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Sold For Sale

US New Home Sold & For Sale(Seasonally Adjusted) in 000’s – 700,000 Considered Healthy

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/newressales.xlsData may be revised on a rolling four month cycle

Down 5% Over a Year AgoUp 15%

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Maricopa County New Home Sales - SF & CondoCromford Report/Information Market

Average is 26871999 - 2003

Highest Since 2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Ja

n-9

9M

ay

-99

Sep

-99

Ja

n-0

0M

ay

-00

Sep

-00

Ja

n-0

1M

ay

-01

Sep

-01

Ja

n-0

2M

ay

-02

Sep

-02

Ja

n-0

3M

ay

-03

Sep

-03

Ja

n-0

4M

ay

-04

Sep

-04

Ja

n-0

5M

ay

-05

Sep

-05

Ja

n-0

6M

ay

-06

Sep

-06

Ja

n-0

7M

ay

-07

Se

p-0

7J

an

-08

Ma

y-0

8S

ep

-08

Ja

n-0

9M

ay

-09

Se

p-0

9Ja

n-1

0M

ay

-10

Sep

-10

Ja

n-1

1M

ay

-11

Sep

-11

Ja

n-1

2M

ay

-12

Sep

-12

Ja

n-1

3M

ay

-13

Sep

-13

Ja

n-1

4M

ay

-14

Sep

-14

Ja

n-1

5M

ay

-15

Sep

-15

Ja

n-1

6

% New Home vs. Existing SalesCromford Report/Information Market

New

Existing

Resale - 88% of Market

Average1999 – 2016 = 79%1999 – 2008 = 71%

US Housing Starts - SF vs. 5+ Units

Straight Lines are 54 Year Avg

SF 1032MF 363

731 in Jan

354 in Jan

Housing Starts – Phoenix MSA (NSA)

1234 Jan 1642% Up Over 15

Average 2001 – 2003 = 3328Average Since 1988 = 2079

SF Housing Starts in Phoenix are up 42% YTD

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total

1 unit

2 - 4 Units

5+ Units

73% of Average97% of Jan 1965

US Building Permits – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Average is 1370 Since 1994 (1008 for SF; 305 for 5+)

T

h

o

u

s

a

n

d

s

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/

SF Permits are Up 10% YTD5+ Units Permits are up 18% YTD

89% of Average

143% of Average88% of Jan 1965

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Arizona Building Permits

Total

1 Unit

2 Unit

3 to 4

5+ Units

http://www.census.gov/construction/bps/txt/tb2u201406.txt

Single Family Up 30% YTDApartments Down 66% YTD

Decade to Date: 1960s v. 2000sBuilding Permits – Single Family

• Arizona– 2010 – 2015 = 95,535

– 1960 – 1965 = 66,440

• US Total– 2010 – 2015 = 3,970,300

– 1960 – 1965 = 4,365,200

Up 44%

Down 9%

Decade to Date: 1960s v. 2000sBuilding Permits – Multi Family

• Arizona– 2010 – 2015 = 35,181

– 1960 – 1965 = 26,180

• US Total– 2010 – 2015 = 2,165,000

– 1960 – 1965 = 2,220,600

Up 34%

Down 3%

532

601

769

499460

529

449484

405

276 302331

359

428

616 629

541

633

549

654 628

471 469 465

581

788

642

1097

1169

948994

955

661

783737

556

746806

9911045 1075

1021 1043

888

800870

545

840796 773

862

956903

1114

903

741

809

697

515

867

767

913

1243

1439

13621432

13731338

12951241

962

1262

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Ja

n

Feb

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Aug

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Maricopa County Single Family Building PermitsUp 47% Over 2014 YTD

http://www.census.gov/construction/bps/

Up 46% Over Dec 2014

4.42

3.66

3.87

3.713.79

4.13

4.48

4.34

4.65

4.284.35

4.60

4.48

4.71

4.83

4.95

4.68

4.93

4.72

4.15

4.814.86

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

4.20

4.40

4.60

4.80

5.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 2015 2016

US Existing Home Sales – SF - Millions of Units – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Source: NAR – Data revised on a rolling 60 days

104

671

958

807

532

58

427

1042

823

623

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

$50K - $100K $100K - $150K $150K - $200K $200K - $250K $250K - $300K

2015

2016

9%

17%

2%

-36%

-44%

SF Normal Sales by Price Range – February

2381

3072

2702

2973

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan Feb

2015

2016

-3%13%

SF Normal Sales by Price Range50K- $300K

79

64

55

57

65

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

All $

< 100K

$100 - $150K

$150 - $200K

$200 - $250K

$250 - $300K

Days on Market by Price Range – SF Normal

Single Family – Volume: All $ - NormalCurrent Month 2001 – 2016

Single Family – Volume: < $100K - Normal

Single Family – Volume: $100 -$150K Normal

Sales YTD – SF – Normal $ALL

- 561 Units-6%

Sales YTD – SF – Normal <$100K

- 144 Units-49%

Sales YTD – SF – Normal $100K to $150K

1704 Units-42%


+12 Units+1%


- 8 UnitsFlat


+119 Units+10%


+9 Units+1%


+132 Units+2%


+42 Units+5%

Sales YTD – SF – Normal $600K to $1M

+19 Units6%

Sales YTD – SF – Normal $1M +

+1 UnitFlat

Pendings – SF – Normal $ ALL

Pendings – SF – Normal <$100K

Pendings – SF – Normal $100K to $150K

Pendings – SF – Normal $600K to $1M

Pendings – SF – Normal $1M +

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Fix & Flip Volume – 2013 v. 2014 v. 2015Maricopa County – Single Family

2013

2014

2015

2016

2015 YTD Up 8% Over 2014

Analysis: AZREIAData:

2016 YTD Up 14% Over 2015

Fix & Flip Market Share

5.0% 5.1%5.4% 5.4%

5.7%

6.3%6.8% 7.0% 7.2%

6.6%6.9%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

Analysis: AZREIAData:

ARMLS Median Lease Rates & DOM

1,085

1,0501,050

1,100

1,125

1,1501,1501,150

1,1001,1001,0951,095

1,075

1,0631,0651,074

1,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,0951,0951,0951,0951,0951,095

1,150

1,170

1,2001,1951,195

1,175

1,1501,152

1,175

1,1501,150

1,195

1,225

1,250

1,275

1,295

1,250

1,225

1,200

1,2451,235

1,2501,250

51

48

45

40

43

4038

4341

4444

47

5555

5251

40383838

41

4446

48

53

49

41

35

31

2728

2931

3436

37

4139

34

2927

2526

27

343232

33

37

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350Jan

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJ

ul

Au

gS

ep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJ

ul

Au

gS

ep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJ

ul

Au

gS

ep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Ju

nJ

ul

Au

gS

ep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Fe

b

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Days

Do

llars

Median Rent DOM

Data “ARMLS® COPYRIGHT 2016”

$0.75Current Month

UP 9% Over Feb 15

$0.74 12 Month

Moving Average

SF Detached

City of Phoenix Single Family

Detached

$/SF – SF – RentalCity Comparison

0.59

0.780.73

0.61

0.79

1.03

0.87

0.55

0.800.74

0.68

0.80

1.06

0.88

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Buckeye Chandler Gilbert Goodyear Phoenix Scottsdale Tempe

Cromford Report – Daily Observation – March 12th

• Rental listings at ARMLS are in danger of being declared an endangered species. Yesterday we had a total of just 2,140 active listings (excluding vacation rentals). The all time low was a couple of weeks ago on Feb 28, when there were just 2,090. Back in 2008 there were almost 10,000. The current count is 27% below last year and 45% less than 2014.

• The average lease price for an active listing is now up to $2,087 per month, 11% higher than last year.

• The current inventory represents just 26 days of supply and the average days on market is 28. Last year at this time the average days on market was 37.

• The average leased price per sq. ft. is currently 79.1c, while last year it was 71.7c. That represents an annual increase of over 10%.

• It is a very good time to be a landlord and a terrible time to be a tenant.

Single Family Sale Price/SF All Price Ranges

Target$137.53

Dec 2015

Projection$143.79

Dec 2016

Historical$140.35

Dec 2016

Single Family Sale Price/SF Under $100K

Single Family Sales Price/SF $100K to $150K

Target Price$96.43


Target Price$115.62

$185,000 Median Price1600 SF


Target Price$132.50



Target Price$145.83


Single Family Sales Price/SF $400K to $1M

Single Family Sales Price/SF $1M+

Single Family – Price/SF – Normal Sales

Target Price$144.14Jan 2016

Target$147.49Jan 2017

Projection$146.03

Dec 2016

4 Months of Inventory

4.7

3.43.3

2.4

2.1 2.12.3 2.3

2.6

3.4

3.7

3.1

3.7 3.7

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2015 2016

Months of Inventory – SF - Normal

2.3

1.8

2.8

1.71.6

1.5

1.8 1.81.9

2.32.4

1.9 1.91.8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


2015 2016

Months of Inventory – SF - Distressed

1.6

1.2

1.7

1.41.5 1.5 1.5

1.61.5

2.1

2.7

2.1

1.9

1.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


Months of Inventory – SF - REO

3.5

2.8

3.2

2.2

1.7 1.7

1.9

2.1

2.5

2.7

2.5

1.9

2.22.3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4


Months of Inventory – SF – Short Sales

Single FamilyNormal

$100K - $300KSingle Family

Normal

Active Listings – SF – Normal <$100K

Active Listings – SF – Normal $100K to $150K

Active Listings – SF – Normal $100 - 400K

Active Listings – SF – Normal $400K +

Active Listings – SF – Normal $ALL

As of March 5, 2016 there are 634 REO, Short Sale & HUDSingle Family Listings Without an Offer

Single Family - New Listing By Month – Normal

17%19%

23%

27% 27% 28% 27% 26% 25% 24%

19%

27%

18%

23%

32%

35% 36%

40%38%

34%32%

27%

22%

30%

21% 22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Percent of Available Homes Sold Per Month – Single Family

SELLER'S MARKET

BUYER'S MARKET

4-MONTH

SUPPLY

2 MONTH

SUPPLY

10 MONTH

SUPPLY

Data: ARMLS, Cromford Report; Analysis: AZREIA

Data: ARMLS, Cromford Report; Analysis: AZREIA

January

February

City Cromford Market Index

Buckeye 88

Casa Grande 79

Fountain Hills 91

Gold Canyon 61

Litchfield Park 80

Maricopa 71

Paradise Valley 83

Scottsdale 93

Sun City 86

Sun City West 89

Sun Lakes 66

Buyer’s Market Based on Cromford Market Index - Below 95

8% Distressed

Residential Foreclosures Maricopa CountyInformation Market/Cromford Report

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Ja

n-0

9F

eb

-09

Ma

r-0

9A

pr-

09

May

-09

Ju

n-0

9Ju

l-0

9A

ug

-09

Sep

-09

Oct-

09

No

v-0

9D

ec

-09

Ja

n-1

0F

eb

-10

Ma

r-1

0A

pr-

10

May

-10

Ju

n-1

0Ju

l-1

0A

ug

-10

Sep

-10

Oct-

10

No

v-1

0D

ec

-10

Ja

n-1

1F

eb

-11

Ma

r-1

1A

pr-

11

Ma

y-1

1Ju

n-1

1Ju

l-1

1A

ug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct-

11

No

v-1

1D

ec

-11

Ja

n-1

2F

eb

-12

Ma

r-1

2A

pr-

12

May

-12

Ju

n-1

2Ju

l-1

2A

ug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2D

ec

-12

Ja

n-1

3F

eb

-13

Ma

r-1

3A

pr-

13

May

-13

Ju

n-1

3J

ul-

13

Au

g-1

3S

ep

-13

Oc

t-1

3N

ov-1

3D

ec

-13

Ja

n-1

4F

eb

-14

Ma

r-1

4A

pr-

14

May

-14

Ju

n-1

4Ju

l-1

4A

ug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4D

ec

-14

Ja

n-1

5F

eb

-15

Ma

r-1

5A

pr-

15

May

-15

Ju

n-1

5Ju

l-1

5A

ug

-15

Se

p-1

5O

ct-

15

No

v-1

5D

ec

-15

Ja

n-1

6F

eb

-16

Notices

Foreclosed

702

2621196

378

Cromford Report

128/93

In Jan 2016:• 125 Sales to 3rd Party• Median Price of $148,300• Avg. $/SF $93.21

In Jan 2016:• 139 Reverted to Lender• Median Price of $189,914• Avg. $/SF $114.91

Analysis of Auction Activity – January 2016

Market Conditions

Great Start to 2016Go on Rentals, Fix & Flip & Wholesaling

Wealth Building, Cash Flow, Income & Cash Strategies All Positive

Housekeeping Join AZREIA - Guest Fee Applied to Dues

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disclaimer - memberize update files/2016...disclaimer az. r.e.i.a., inc. hereafter called the...

Documents