Disasters and Displacement:Improving Preparedness andProtection

MARCH 2013

In the past, forced displacement was usually the result of conflict and relatedhuman rights violations. However, people increasingly are being forced toleave their homes as a result of disasters. Over the past few years the numberof people displaced as a result of natural disasters has far exceeded thosedisplaced by conflict. Why is this happening? What are the consequences? Andwhat can be done about it?

These issues were the focus of a workshop on forced displacement andnatural disasters co-hosted by Norway and Switzerland in Vienna onSeptember 5, 2012. The workshop brought together representatives from statesas well as international and non-governmental organizations to share theirexperiences in dealing with post-disaster displacement and to discuss ways offinding durable solutions for those affected by such dramatic events. It alsoprovided an opportunity to identify and close gaps in international law andpolicy, particularly in relation to the rights of persons who cross bordersseeking refuge as a result of natural disasters. The workshop participants werealso briefed on the new Nansen Initiative, an intergovernmental processlaunched by Norway and Switzerland that seeks normative and institutionalmeasures to protect people displaced by natural disasters.

More People are Being Displaced byDisasters

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters are increasing. Sudden-onsetdisasters such as floods, storms, wildfires, earthquakes, and volcanoes as wellas more slowly developing disasters such as droughts, desertification, andextremes in temperature are uprooting a growing number of people aroundthe world. No country is immune from the forces of nature. These disastersworsen the lives of many people in the developing world who are already livingin vulnerable conditions. However, developing countries are not the only onesat risk: many rich countries have been hit by severe weather conditions inrecent years that have caused major damage and displacement.

The vast majority of people displaced as a result of natural disasters staywithin their home countries. As a result, they are considered internallydisplaced persons (IDPs) rather than refugees. Nevertheless, a minority ofdisplaced people are forced to cross borders as a result of natural disasters.

According to the International Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), in2010 alone, over 42 million people were newly displaced by sudden-onsetnatural disasters. In 2011, approximately 15 million people were also newlydisplaced for the same reasons in at least sixty-one countries, with the worst

On September 5, 2012, Norway andSwitzerland co-hosted a workshop inVienna on forced displacement withthe support of the United NationsHigh Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR). The workshop wasdesigned to look at the impact ofnatural disasters and climate changeon displacement. Particular attentionwas paid to the legal, policy, andknowledge gaps regarding peoplewho cross borders when fleeing fromdisasters. Participants were briefedon the Nansen Initiative, which isdesigned to build consensus on keyprinciples and elements regardingthe protection of persons displacedacross borders.

The workshop brought togetherrepresentatives from relevantinternational, regional, and non-government organizations as well asinterested states and civil society.

Walter Kemp, IPI’s Director forEurope and Central Asia, chaired themeeting and prepared this meetingnote. It reflects the rapporteur’sinterpretation of the seminar discus-sion and not necessarily the viewsthe participants.

IPI owes a debt of gratitude to its manygenerous donors, particularly Norwayand Switzerland, whose support madethis publication possible.

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effects being felt in Africa and Asia.1 The majorityof such displacements have been due to a smallnumber of mega-disasters. Although mega-disasters are relatively rare, their results aredevastating. Recent examples include the terriblecombination of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclearcatastrophe in Japan; massive floods in Australiaand Pakistan; huge forest fires in Greece and Russia;droughts in China and East Africa; and adevastating earthquake in Haiti.

Climate change is also expected to have a largerimpact on population movements. As early as 1990,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changewarned that the single greatest impact of climatechange could be human migration. The importanceof climate-induced displacement and the need toput in place adaptation measures to address it wererecognized by the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at itsmeeting in Cancun, Mexico in December 2010. InArticle 14 (f) of the Cancun Agreement, all Partiesto the Convention are invited to undertake“measures to enhance understanding, co-ordina-tion and cooperation with regard to climatechange-induced displacement, migration, andplanned relocation, where appropriate, at thenational, regional and international levels.”2

At the workshop, Professor Andrey Kostiany ofthe Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academyof Sciences provided data (primarily on NorthAfrica and Central Asia) that demonstrated theimpact of climate on migration. For example, in thecapitals of four Central Asian states, the annualmean temperature has risen by three degrees in thepast fifty years while humidity and accumulatedrainfall have decreased significantly. ProfessorKostiany hypothesized that migration outflows(particularly toward Western Europe) could betriggered in regions that experience increases in airand soil temperature, decreases in precipitation,increases in evaporation and aridity, as well as landdegradation, desertification, salinization of soils,and more frequent extreme weather events.

It is estimated that by 2050, 200 million peoplewill be affected by climate change. In contrast tohigh-impact and highly visible mega-disasters,slow-onset environmental problems caused interalia by climate change are relatively under-reported.Nevertheless, they can have a serious effect on low-income households and communities byundermining resilience and aggravating or creatingnew vulnerabilities. Environmental disruptionscan, for example, increase competition over scarceresources, cause loss of livelihoods, and increasesecurity concerns.

Protecting the Vulnerable

Resource scarcity exacerbated by worseningweather conditions is increasingly described byIDPs and refugees as a multiplier or magnifier ofpre-existing conflicts, creating tensions that arecausing people to migrate. In fact, many disasterzones are equally or even more devastating thanwar zones. As José Riera of the Office of the UnitedNations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR) said, “even where the cause of displace-ment—whether internal or cross-border—isprimarily environmental, the affected populationsmay have protection needs and vulnerabilitiessimilar to those whose flight is provoked byviolence or human rights abuses.”

As pointed out by Chaloka Beyani, UN SpecialRapporteur on the Human Rights of InternallyDisplaced Persons, it is important to considerdisplacement within the broader context of other“mega-trends” such as population growth,increased human mobility, urbanization, and foodand water insecurity. For example, more extremeweather conditions could exacerbate or even triggersocial conflict and migration due to water scarcityand food insecurity.3 The combination of droughtand famine in the Horn of Africa in 2011 was citedas an example of the deadly interplay of deterio-rating environmental conditions, politicalinstability, and conflict.

1 See “Global Estimates 2011: People Displaced by Natural Hazard-induced Disasters,” Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and the Norwegian RefugeeCouncil, June 2012.

2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Sixteenth Session, Held in Cancun from 29 Novemberto 10 December 2010,” UN Doc. FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add. 1, March 15, 2011.

3 At the Rio + 20 Conference on sustainable development, UNHCR launched a joint publication with United Nations University and the London School ofEconomics, “Climate Change, Vulnerability and Human Mobility: Perspectives of Refugees from the East and Horn of Africa,” Report No. 1, June 2012.

Small islands are especially vulnerable. Theeffects of climate change already are having animpact on the right to housing, safe water, andlivelihood for many small islands. Locations such asthe Maldives are being affected by coastal erosion,salination, rising sea levels, and more frequentstorms and flooding. Affected persons will needprotection and assistance to find durable solutionsas their small islands become uninhabitable or needto be rehabilitated. Planned relocations maybecome necessary. Participants discussed theapplicability of the solidarity principle in such casesand raised a number of questions: What willhappen to individuals in the future if certain islandstates disappear? Where should the inhabitants go?And what are their rights if they are displaced?

Mr. Beyani previously has defined forceddisplacement due to natural disasters as one of thefour priorities of the first term of his mandate. Inthe meeting, he emphasized the need for a three-pronged approach:

1) Establish environmentally sustainable deve -lopment policies combined with disaster riskreduction and management.

2) Structure robust national IDP frameworks inline with international standards.

3) Develop creative alternative domestic solu -tions and international arrangements withneighboring and other countries to safeguardthe universal human rights of their citizens.

More generally, Mr. Beyani stressed the need forrespecting the human rights of displaced people. Asstated in the Nansen Principles (described furtherin this meeting note’s final section),

national and international policies and responses,including planned relocation, need to be implementedon the basis of non-discrimination, consent,empowerment, participation and partnerships withthose directly affected, with due sensitivity to age,gender and diversity aspects. The voices of thedisplaced or those threatened with displacement, lossof home or livelihood must be heard and taken intoaccount, without neglecting those who may choose toremain.4

Another risk factor identified by researchers isthe increasing number of displaced people who are

moving into hazard-prone areas (e.g. low-lyingareas) that make them vulnerable to furtherdisasters, the loss of housing, and further displace-ment. Participants observed that refugees arealready huddling in climate change hot spotsaround the globe.5

This relocation pattern is partly an urbanphenomenon. Today, more than half of the world’spopulation live in urban areas, of which, one thirdlive in precarious informal settlements and slums.These numbers are expected to increase due in partto an influx of IDPs displaced by sudden-onsetnatural disasters to big cities. Many cities areunprepared for this eventuality.

With few resources, IDPs moving to cities arelikely to live in substandard housing conditionswith little or no security of tenure. They will oftenmove to informal settlements such as urban slums,where they will be more vulnerable to evictions andgenerally more difficult to identify and assist asthey join the masses of the urban poor. Mr. Beyanisaid that “it is critical that IDPs be provided betteroptions than this, through timely and durablesolutions so that climate-induced displacementdoes not also add to the social pressures and precar-ious human conditions associated with rapid andunplanned urban migration.”

Increased Attention andKnowledge

It has been recognized internationally thatresponses to climate- and environmentally-relateddisplacement need to be informed with adequateknowledge.6 During the workshop, participantsnoted that increasing attention to migration and theenvironment has resulted in a number of importantscientific studies and policy recommendations.Research mentioned at the workshop included astudy by the Vienna-based International Centre forMigration Policy Development (ICMPD) on“climate refugees,” data collected by the IDMC, areport commissioned by the UK governmententitled “Migration and Global EnvironmentalChange” (also known as the Foresight Report), theEuropean Commission’s Environmental Change

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4 See Nansen Principle X. For the Nansen Principles see www.regjeringen.no/upload/UD/Vedlegg/Hum/nansen_prinsipper.pdf . 5 See “Climate Change, Vulnerability and Human Mobility.”6 Nansen Principle I.

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and Forced Migration Scenarios project (EACH-FOR),7 as well as reports produced by theNorwegian Refugee Council.

Participants stressed that it is essential that workshould continue in this area in order to improvemonitoring of displacement patterns, theavailability and quality of data collection, andappropriate prevention and response systems.

Improving Prevention andResponse

As natural disasters become more frequent andmore severe, prevention and preparedness need tobe further strengthened at all levels.8 “Adequateresponse to a disaster depends on adequatepreparedness,” said Goran Svilanovic, theOrganization for Security and Co-operation inEurope’s (OSCE) Coordinator for Economic andEnvironmental Activities. To ensure that states arebetter prepared and can respond quickly during atime of crisis, it is vital to have standby arrange-ments or joint training and regular contacts andexchanges between those national and local actorsthat carry responsibility for operations on theground. At the meeting, OSCE’s activities of thisnature were outlined, including its fire managementtraining in the Caucasus and Southeastern Europe.It was noted that disaster relief can also be a usefulconfidence-building measure.

The need for awareness raising, training, andcapacity building were highlighted as well as theneed for legal frameworks and policies on disasterrisk reduction and internal displacement. It wassuggested that regional organizations (e.g., theAfrican Union, the Organization of AmericanStates [OAS], and the OSCE) could do more tofacilitate the exchange of good practices and helpcountries to build national capacity and promoteregional cooperation in preparedness and relief.

Notwithstanding possible regional contributions,

states have the primary responsibility to protecttheir populations. The national experiences andexpertise of Spain and Thailand were profiled ascase studies, particularly in relation to disasterpreparedness and relief. Spain has a multi-sectoralnational platform for disaster risk reduction, aGeneral Directorate for Civil Protection andEmergencies that has comprehensive procedures inplace to exchange relevant information duringdisasters, and an Office for Humanitarian Actionthat has developed coordination and responsemechanisms to deal with emergencies abroad.Thailand has developed considerable expertise indisaster preparedness and response as a result ofdealing with floods, landslides, and the tsunami inthe Indian Ocean in December 2004.

Mr. Beyani highlighted the importance of strate-gies “to more effectively transition from humani-tarian assistance to early recovery and develop-ment” so that displacement does not becomeprotracted. He also stressed that disaster reliefshould be framed within the context of develop-ment and human rights as well as humanitarianassistance.

In addition to increased national and regionalcapacity, the international disaster response systemneeds to be reinforced. Participants were briefed onthe current system of “protection clusters” in theUN system. Under this system, the humanitarianleadership role in natural disaster situations iscurrently decided on a case-by-case basis by theUnited Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), theOffice of the High Commissioner for HumanRights (OHCHR), and UNHCR.

As stated in the Nansen Principles, “the develop-ment of multi-hazard early warning systems linkinglocal and global levels is critical.”9 This is currentlybeing addressed in the context of the HOPEFORinitiative on improving the effectiveness andcoordination of military and civil defense assets(MCDA) for natural disaster relief.10

7 This project covered twenty-three case studies from around the world, looking at the impact of climate change on migration. 8 See United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, “Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters,”

Kobe: World Conference on Disaster Reduction Final Report, UN Doc. A/CONF.206/6, 2007.9 See Nansen Principle VI. 10 See UN General Assembly Resolution 65/307 (August 25, 2011), UN Doc. A/RES/65/307.

Closing the Legal Gap

The rights of people who become IDPs as a result ofdisasters are covered by the 1998 Guiding Principleson Internal Displacement,11 as well as a few regionalinstruments like the Kampala Convention.12 Theseprinciples, which are based on standards of interna-tional human rights and humanitarian law, providean internationally recognized framework for theprotection of IDPs. It was stressed that it is criticalthat these standards be translated into national lawsand policies for the sake of disaster risk reductionand management. As one participant put it, “this isan essential ingredient of good governance in theage of climate change.”

While the rights of refugees are clearly laid out ina number of legally binding international treaties,particularly the 1951 United Nations ConventionRelating to the Status of Refugees, there is anormative gap when it comes to people externallydisplaced (i.e., forced to leave their country) due tonatural disasters. These people are in most casesnot refugees under international refugee law, andhuman rights law does not address critical issuessuch as their admission, stay, and human rights.Criteria to distinguish between forced andvoluntary movements induced by natural disastershave not yet been elaborated.

There is also a lack of clarity as to who shoulddeal with the issue. As UNHCR representative JoséRiera pointed out, “there is presently an institu-tional gap as well since no operational organizationis mandated to assist and protect persons displacedinternally or externally owing to natural disasters.”As Thomas Greminger, the ambassador ofSwitzerland said, “normative, institutional, andorganizational gaps with regard to dynamics ofdisplacement, in particular across borders, and theprotection of the concerned people need to beaddressed and resolved.”

According to UNHCR, an analysis of existingnational legislation indicates that some countries(e.g., the United States) have included provisionswhereby persons affected by natural disasters who

are already in a host country would not be returnedto their countries of origin and would enjoy a formof temporary protection. However, the vastmajority of states make no provision in their legalframeworks for the legal entry and sojourn ofpeople exposed to the impacts of climate change orresidents of islands subjected to sea-level rise. AsMr. Riera pointed out, “even if they are not refugees,such people are entitled to be supported and to havetheir voices heard and taken into account.” Butwhat form should that support take?

The Nansen Initiative

In 2011, a number of meetings were held in order toaddress the legal gap and to focus on the issue ofcross-border forced displacement and naturaldisasters. In February 2011, UNHCR hosted the“Belaggio Roundtable on Climate Change andDisplacement.” The meeting concluded that a moresystemic approach is needed to tackle the issue ofdisaster-induced displacement.

A major step in this direction came in June 2011when Norway hosted The Nansen Conference inOslo in order to identify and address the challengespresented by disaster-induced displacement. Theconference was named after Fridtjof Nansen, whowas the first High Commissioner for Refugees, aNorwegian scholar, polar explorer, and Nobel Prizewinner. More than 200 participants—representinggovernments, inter- and non-governmental organi-zations, as well as the private sector—from overforty countries took part.

The conference concluded by identifying tenNansen principles. The ninth principle states that “amore coherent and consistent approach at theinternational level is needed to meet the protectionneeds of people displaced externally owing tosudden-onset disasters. States, working in conjunc-tion with UNHCR and other relevant stakeholders,could develop a guiding framework or instrumentin this regard.”

To that end, it was hoped that the legal gapconcerning the rights of persons who cross borders

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11 These principles were formulated in 1998 by the Representative of the UN Secretary-General on Internally Displaced Persons, Francis Deng, and submitted to thethen UN Commission on Human Rights. Available here: www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/refworld/rwmain?page=search&docid=3d4f95e11 .

12 The African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa, also known as the Kampala Convention, was adopted inOctober 2009 and became legally binding on December 6, 2012. It is the first legally binding continental instrument in the world that imposes on states the obliga-tion to protect and assist IDPs.

as a result of natural disasters could be addressed atUNHCR’s ministerial meeting in Geneva inDecember 2011. However, many states signaledthat they were not ready to discuss, elaborate, oraccept new international obligations in this regard.Seeking a way to develop the issue further, Norwayand Switzerland joined by Germany, Mexico, andCosta Rica, pledged “to cooperate with interestedstates, UNCHR, and other relevant actors with theaim of obtaining a better understanding of suchcross-border movements at relevant regional andsub-regional levels, identifying best practices, anddeveloping a consensus on how best to assist andprotect the affected people.” The pledge waswelcomed by several states and provides the basisfor the Nansen Initiative.

The Nansen Initiative is a state-led processmanaged by a steering group with a balancedrepresentation from the global South and North.The initiative was officially launched in Geneva andNew York in October 2012. In addition to Norwayand Switzerland, Australia, Bangladesh, Costa Rica,Germany, Kenya, Mexico, and the Philippines arealready on board. The inter-governmental processis supported by a consultative committee(composed of NGOs, international organizations,and academics with expertise in the field) as well asa small secretariat based in Geneva. The process iscoordinated by an envoy, Professor Walter Kälin,who is an internationally recognized Swiss lawprofessor and former Representative of theSecretary-General on the Human Rights ofInternally Displaced Persons.

The overall goal of the Nansen Initiative is togradually build consensus on key principles andelements regarding the protection of personsdisplaced across borders. This consensus wouldthen set the agenda for future action at the

domestic, regional, and international levels. Asexplained by the UNHCR representative, the initia-tive will generate an agenda for the protection ofpeople displaced across international borders in thecontext of natural disasters based on three corepillars:

1) international cooperation and solidarityamong states;

2) standards of treatment regarding admission,stay, and transition towards solutions;

3) more robust operational responses, includingin the areas of preparedness, cross-borderassistance, solutions, and the respective rolesof relevant disaster management, humani-tarian, and development actors.

The Nansen Initiative will take the form of abottom-up process of consultations in five sub-regions particularly affected by disaster-induceddisplacement that offers the opportunity for statesto exchange experiences, share best practices, andbegin to develop a consensus on the key normative,institutional, and operational elements. It willenable a strengthened research agenda and allowrefugee and climate change experts to worktogether.

In conclusion, as Ambassador Robert Kvile ofNorway pointed out, forced displacement due todisasters and climate change is a major interna-tional problem that is bound to get worse.Therefore a more coherent and consistent approachat the international level is needed to meet theprotection needs of people displaced by suchcatastrophic events. In particular, possible legalgaps need to be closed concerning the protection ofpeople displaced externally due to sudden-onsetdisasters.

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Agenda

Workshop on Forced Displacement and Natural Disasters

Vienna, Austria

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

15:00 – 15:30 Introduction

Opening RemarksH.E. Thomas Greminger, Ambassador, Permanent Representative of Switzerland to theOrganization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the United Nations and theInternational Organizations in Vienna

Key Note SpeechDr. Chaloka Beyani, Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Internally DisplacedPersons, United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)

15:30 – 16:15 Forced Displacement and Disasters: Coping with a Growing Challenge

SpeakersNina M. Birkeland, Head of Policy and Research, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre(IDMC) Professor Andrey G. Kostianoy, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy ofSciences (IO RAS)Tine Ramstad, Adviser Climate Change Advocacy, Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)

16:15 – 17:15 Country Experiences and Regional Developments

SpeakersGoran Svilanovic, Coordinator of OSCE Economic and Environmental ActivitiesAlbert Kraler, Programme Manager, Research, International Centre for Migration PolicyDevelopment (ICMPD)H.E. Somsak Suriyawong, Ambassador of the Kingdom of Thailand to AustriaH.E. Fernando Valderrama, Head of Mission, Permanent Mission of Spain to the OSCE

17:15 – 18:00 The Way Forward and Discussion

SpeakerJosé Riera, Senior Adviser, Division of International Protection, Office of the United NationsHigh Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)

Concluding RemarksH.E. Robert Kvile, Ambassador, Permanent Representative of Norway to the OSCE

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