disaster risk reduction and climate change (adaptation) – the needs for harmonization
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
1
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (ADAPTATION) –THE NEEDS FOR HARMONIZATION
www.grforum.org
CONTACT INFORMATION
Global Risk Forum GRF DavosPromenade 35CH-7270 DavosPhone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 [email protected]
Walter J. AmmannPresident and CEO Global Risk Forum GRF [email protected]
2
• The link between natural disasters and climate change
• Disaster risk reduction and the need to harmonize with climate change adaptation
• .....and how to combine disaster risk reduction not only with climate change adaptation but also with climate change mitigation (example combatting land degradation).
INTRODUCTION
3
THE 3 PILLARS OF GRF DAVOS
RISKPLANET
web based networking platform
Open and closed circles
RISK ACADEMY
Think Tank, Knowledge ManagementTraining CoursesR&DPublic Awareness
E-journal (Good practice)
IDRC
Biennial IDRC Davos Conferences26 – 30 Aug. 2012IDRC Regional Conferences and Workshops (China 2011)
“From Thoughts to Action –linking practice, science, policy and decision making in the search for sustainable solutions”
Davos based foundation
4
• Risk Reduction (preventive measures)• Disaster Management (intervention, recovery)• Risk Governance (integrative risk management)
• Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability x Values exposed to hazard
• Hazard = frequency (probability), intensity
• Climate Change
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DRR AND CC
5
FLOODS
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES/ TSUNAMIS
DROUGHTS, DESERTIFICATION
LANDSLIDES, DEBRIS FLOW
WILDFIRES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
TERRORISM
LAND DEGRADATION
PANDEMICS
FINANCIAL CRISES
BIOLOGICAL THREATS
MULTI HAZARD/ MULTI RISK APPROACH NEEDED
IT - Security
6
7
8
HEATWAVE 2003 IN SWITZERLAND
• Number of deaths: approx. 1 000• Economic damage due to a bad harvest: approx. 500 million CHF
Source: sc l nat Pro Clim – Forum for Climate and Global Change report Hitzesommer 2003 - Synthesebericht
C. Braun-Fahrländer, University of BaselDay/Month
Number of deaths per dayEurope 2003
35‘000 deaths10 bn EURO
9
NATURAL DISASTERS: LOSSES
Source: Figure and text: Munich Re Topics Geo 2007
10
MEAN ANNUAL LOSSES – NATURAL HAZARDS
•100‘000 deaths•150 bn US $•800 Mio affected
Gap between industrialized and developing countries
11
FACTS - CLIMATE JUSTICE Poor countries suffer the vast majority of the impact of naturalhazards and thus of the human impact of climate change.
Source: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, Global Humanitarian Forum 2009, Geneva
12
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS MDGS
Global Environmental Change
Degradation of Ecoysstem Services
Land Degradation
Growing Vulnerabilities
Large costs for wealth and development
Undermining the possibilities to attain the MDGs
13
FACTS - CLIMATE JUSTICE Poor countries suffer the vast majority of the impact of naturalhazards and thus of the human impact of climate change.
Source: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, Global Humanitarian Forum 2009, Geneva
14
CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT
Source: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, Global Humanitarian Forum 2009, Geneva
15
CLIMATE CHANGE – MOST AFFECTED REGIONS
• Africa, Increased water shortages (up to 250 million people in Africa at increased risk of water stress in 2030);
• Small Island Developing States, Sea-level rise is likely to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure that supports the socio-economic well-being of island communities.
• Asian mega deltas, such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra and the Zhujiang: Large populations and high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river flooding
Source: UNFCCC Factsheet: Climate change science - Regions that will be especially affected
16
CLIMATE JUSTICE – FACTS & EXPLANATIONS
Source: W. Fust (2009), What will it take? Mitigation of Climate Change, talk at Global Humanitarian Forum, October 2009, Geneva
17
HUNGER - FACTS
Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation United Nations:
• Over 1 bn people are chronically hungrytoday—many of them due to climate change.
• 94% live in developing nations.
18
Deaths from malaria & dengue fever, diarrhoea, malnutrition, flooding and (OECD countries) heatwaves
HEALTH IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
19
Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon equivalent in 2002. (Patz, Gibbs, et
al, 2007)
GREEN HOUSE GASES EMISSIONS
20
• Disasters are a problem of the poor and marginalised
• Climate Change will worsen the situation• Social injustice - climate justice needed
• Disasters are a problem of the poor and marginalised
• Climate Change will worsen the situation• Social injustice - climate justice needed
21
ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED MIGRATION
Source: WBGU 2007
about 1billion people in over 100 countries are at risk
22
ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED MIGRANTS?
• By 2030: 70 million (IOM 2008)
• By 2050: Estimates vary widely, 200 millionbecoming a widely cited estimate (IOM 2008)
• After 2050: Up to 700 million environmental migrants (Christian Aid 2007)
• Migration as a need to adapt to climate change
23
• Accellerated urbanisation (coastal areas, 30 Mega Cities in 2020)
• Increasing vulnerability (globalisation, information)
• Critical infrastructures and services (energy, transportation, IT, etc.)
• Shortage in natural resources (water, food, Water scarcity
FUTURE CHALLENGES – URBAN RISKS
24
ANNUAL COST DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE (US $)
Sector Global CostIndustrialized
CountriesDevelopping
Countries
Agriculture 14 7 7
Water 11 2 9
Health Sector 5 No estimates 5
Coastal Areas 11 7 4
Infrastructure 8 - 130 6 - 88 2 - 41
Total 49 - 171 22 - 105 27 - 66
Quelle: UNFCCC 2007
25
INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT – THE NEEDS FOR DRR ALONG THE RISK CIRCLE
Integrative (Integral) risk reduction and disaster management = vulnerability reduction and resilience increase
RECOVERY
INTERVENTION
PREVENTION
ReconstructionRehabilitation
Insurance
Land‐use PlanningTechnical MeasuresEcological MeasuresEducationTraining
Organisational measures (early warning)Emergency/Crisis Management
EducationTraining
Awareness Rising
Vulnerability Reduction
Resilience Increase
26
• Lack of understanding of the substantial medium and long term benefits of effective risk reduction strategies
THE NEEDS FOR RISK REDUCTION (PREVENTION)
«The benefits of prevention are not tangible; they are the disasters that did not happen»
Kofi Annan, Former UN SG
27
CLIMATE CHANGE: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
• Adaptation focuses on the effects of Climate Change – DRR with identical targets.
• Harmonization of the DRR and the CC adaptation policies and practices to prepare for the effects of climate change (similar measures).
• Prevention as a need for CC adaptation politically easier to argue than investments for risk reduction
• Resources also needed for adaptation (out of CO2 emission trading) not only for mitigation
• Mitigation tackles the causes of climate change via the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions/ concentrations
28
Climate Change,
Climate variationDesertification, land degradation, drought
Continuous degradation of ecosystems
Food, water, energy security, conflicts, migration,
Natural
Hazards
DRR, Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Loss in carbon sequestration
capacity
CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND DEGRADATION
29
SOIL CARBON SEQUESTATION
• Soil carbon sequestration is the process of transferring carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into the soil through crop residues and other organic solids, and in a form that is not immediately reemitted.
• Soil carbon sequestration can be accomplished by management systems that add high amounts of biomass to the soil, cause minimal soil disturbance, etc.
• This transfer of carbon helps off-set emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other carbon-emitting activities.
Source: Soil Carbon Sequestration— Fundamentals online at: http://ohioline.osu.edu/aex-fact/pdf/0510.pdf
30
COMBAT LAND DEGRADATION – CC MITIGATIONSoil carbon sequestration is an important and immediate sink for removing atmospheric carbon dioxide and mitigating global warming and climate change.
Source: UNCCD thematic fact sheet series No. 1 Climate change and desertification
31
Climate Change,
Climate variationDesertification, land degradation, drought
Continuous degradation of ecosystems
Food, water, energy security, conflicts, migration,
Natural
Hazards
DRR, Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Loss in carbon sequestration
capacity
CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND DEGRADATION
32
WILD World Initiative to combat Land Degradation
DLDD, Climate Change, Risk and Security - An Integrative Approach. A joint campaign and work programme fostering sustainable investments for integrated risk reduction and disaster management in the drylands
30 September 2010 Walter AmmannAVINA‐Stiftung
33
WILD and its context to climate change
• The top-soils are among the most efficient carbon sequestration media
• Combating land degradation, in particular prevention in eroding top-soils due to meteorological events supports carbon sequestration
• WILD therefore – as a combined effort - reduces the vulnerability of ecological systems due to natural hazards (Climate change adaptation) and supports sequestration of CO2 (climate change mitigation).
• Resources for mitigation easier available than for adaptation
30 September 2010 Walter AmmannAVINA‐Stiftung
34
• The link between natural disasters and climate change
• Disaster risk reduction and the need to harmonize with climate change adaptation
• .....and how to combine disaster risk reduction not only with climate change adaptation but also with climate change mitigation (example combatting land degradation).
SUMMARY
35
FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
CONTACT INFORMATION
Global Risk Forum GRF DavosPromenade 35CH-7270 DavosPhone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 [email protected]