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Disaster Risk Management: Linking Science to Policy and Practice
Susan L. Cutter
Hazards & Vulnerability Research Institute
Department of GeographyEDEN ConferenceOctober 12, 2016Ithaca, New York
Hazards science requires understanding of the physical processes of the event AND its impact on people and the things they value, as well as antecedent conditions contributing to such impacts.
“Hazard always arises from the interplay of social and biological and physical systems; disasters are
generated as much or more by human actions as by
physical events.” Human Ecology, 1978
“Hazard always arises from the interplay of social and biological and physical systems; disasters are
generated as much or more by human actions as by
physical events.” Human Ecology, 1978
Hazards are social constructions and do not exist independent of human activity.
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Disasters are complex problems
• Threats to local communities, national security
• Dynamic and shift in time and space
• Consequences amplified by unsustainable development
• Variability in exposure and vulnerability of communities and assets
SocialSystems
Natural Systems
Built Environment
andEngineered
Systems
Requires integrated knowledge and understanding and links to policy and practice
Improve evidence‐based appraisals
Improve integrated knowledge
Apply science to practice and public policy
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The Singularity Issue
“the flooding event and impacts”
• Excessive rainfall and runoff• Infrastructure failures (dams &
levees) cascading impacts• Historic development in flood prone
areas• Lack of awareness of location vis‐à‐
vis dams & levees• Lack of flood insurance & other
mitigation • Requires knowledge from social
sciences, hydrology, meteorology, and civil engineering
October 2015 South Carolina Floods
Improve integrated knowledge
Spatial variability (land cover/land use, proximity, topography)
Improve integrated knowledge
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Hydrology and Meteorology: Temporal variability
October 4, 2015 (5am‐11 am)
Gage 5: October 5Gage 6: October 6Gage 4: October 8Gage 8: October 11
http://www.cisa.sc.edu/PDFs/October%202015%20Flood%20Event%204%20Pager.pdfImprove integrated knowledge
Social Sciences: Social vulnerability
Improve integrated knowledge
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Engineering: Cascading impacts of infrastructure failures
Dam failures
Roads and bridges
Improve integrated knowledge
Interdependent infrastructure systems
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Health Sciences:Public water supply system
375,000 customers without waterBoil water emergency 7‐10 days
Differential impacts
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Improve evidence‐based appraisals
Improve integrated knowledge
General findings on what reduces disaster risk and losses
Understand your risk and vulnerabilities
Build well (follow building codes) to save lives and property
Invest in pre‐disaster mitigation and risk reduction
Be prepared and practice warning systems and messages
Improve risk management governance
Columbia, SC USA
Kathmandu, Nepal
Bangladesh
A. Ismail‐Zadeh and S. Cutter (eds.), 2015. Disaster Risks Research and Assessment to Promote Risk Reduction and Management, Paris: ICSU‐ISSC Ad‐Hoc Group on Disaster Risk Assessment.
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Example: The problem in documenting loss
• Temporal and spatial coverage varies
• Lack consistency and standardization of data among collectors
• Purpose of data collection varies by agency, data collector
• Not all perils /hazards are classified in the same way, nor are all human impacts measured in the same way
• Attribution of losses
• Not all countries compile loss statistics
This result in gaps in the data, inconsistent overlaps, and biases that ultimately affect the quality of research conducted and policies made based on the data.
SHELDUS www.sheldus.org
Version 15.01960 through 2015Nearly 900,000 records
US county‐level hazard datasetDirect property and crop losses, Injuries and fatalitiesInflation‐ and population‐adjustedThreshold: any monetary loss and/or deadly natural hazard event18 different hazard typesExcludes Puerto Rico, Guam, and other U.S. territories
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Examples of broad concepts:Special Needs populations
difficult to identify (infirm, transient) let alone measure; invariably left out of recovery efforts; often invisible in communities
Age (elderly and children)affect mobility out of harm’s way; need special care; more susceptible to harm
Socioeconomic status (rich; poor)ability to absorb losses and recover (insurance, social safety nets), but more material goods to lose
Race and ethnicity (non‐white; non‐Anglo)impose language and cultural barriers; affect access to post‐disaster recovery funding; tend to occupy high hazard zones
Gender (women)gender‐specific employment, lower wages, care‐
giving roleFamily structure
female‐headed households, people per household
Measuring Social Vulnerability
Identification of population characteristics that influence the social burdens of risk
How those factors affect the distribution of risks and losses
Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI)® Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI®) 2010‐14
Comparative metric using 29 variables
Measured from block to county levels
Identify multi‐dimensional drivers
7 variables explain 72% variance in data
Amenable to cross cultural comparisons: Norway, Brazil, Indonesia, Lisbon, China
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Improve evidence‐based appraisals
Improve integrated knowledge
Apply science to practice and public policy
• 1450 users
• 120 local, state, and federal account holders including USACE, CDC, NWS, FEMA, USGS, NIST, NOAA, VA, EPA, GAO, NASA, OMB, USFS
• More than 60 counties and 16 states use SHELDUS in updating hazard mitigation plans
• More than 100 peer‐reviewed publications, theses, and dissertations utilize the data
• Global leadership in loss database through IRDR DATA working group and ICoE‐VaRM)
Translating Science to Practice:
SHELDUS
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HAZARD PROFILING USING SHELDUS
Overviews
Hazard and Loss Breakdown
Translating Science to Practice:
Other
• Surging Seas (Climate Central) http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/)
• NOAA’s Digital Coast (https://coast.noaa.gov/dataregistry/search/collection)
• Spatial product in FEMA’s Geospatial Framework (section 3A Population Impacts)
• 13 State hazard mitigation plans (AR, CA, GA, ID, IL, KS, MS, MO, NM, ND, SC, SD)
• 9 County mitigation plans in five states (CO, SC, CA, MO, GA)
• 7 Regional mitigation plans in three states (SC, KS, VA)
• City mitigation plan (Galveston, TX)• Florida Department of Health
SoVI® Empirically measure social disparities in disaster impacts, preparedness, response, and recovery (social
vulnerability)
Empirically measure social disparities in disaster impacts, preparedness, response, and recovery (social
vulnerability)
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Social vulnerability and climate‐sensitive hazards:Drought, hurricane wind, flooding, sea level rise
Source: C. T. Emrich and S. L. Cutter, 2011. Social vulnerability to climate‐sensitive hazards in the Southern United States, Weather, Climate & Society 3:193‐208.
Regional Applications
Downscaling to more localized levels
Florida Department of Emergency Management, Hazards Events and Locations Prognosticator for Florida (HELPFI)
+ =
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http://ss2.climatecentral.org/#10/33.8140/‐78.7404?show=sovi&projections=0‐RCP85‐SLR&level=5&unit=feet&pois=hide
Future Projections
Projected 1.5 meter (5 feet) SLR and current Social Vulnerability
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SoVI® in Operation: South Carolina October 2015 Flooding
SoVI® coupled with FEMA verified loss counts tells the story of where resources are needed to support recovery.
Why isn’t there more translation of disaster science into practice?
1.Scientists not good at translating findings into action; practitioners and policy makers not always understand the nuances of science
2.Limited engagement with non‐academic stakeholders
3.Lack trust and social networks between all stakeholders
4. Problem sets are different
5.Funding cycles are too short
http://www.engineering.com/Education/EducationArticles/ArticleID/6543/Theory‐vs‐Practice‐How‐should‐engineering‐education‐be‐studied.aspx
Improve application to policy
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Policy Makers and Practitioners: Fundamental cultural shift in
emergency management (from reactive to proactive)
Evidence‐based public policy (not expedient politics)
Think long‐term for community betterment (not just election cycle)
Engage hazards scientists (they are your friends)
Science funding for longer durations
Require integration rather than collaboration for merit and broader impacts criteria
What can be done?
Hazard Researchers: Make research results more
accessible (not only refereed journal articles but policy briefs, etc.)
Help solve practical problem (engage with practice and co‐produce knowledge)
Get over finding perfect solution with clearly defined certainty bands (think what is good enough to address the policy problem)
Make the results useful and used
Solve the integration problem from the bottom up
Improve application to policy
HVRI Alumni, faculty and students
College of Arts and Sciences, University of South Carolina
Vice‐President for Research, University of South Carolina
Contact: [email protected]
http://artsandsciences.sc.edu/geog/hvri/