disaster risk management (drm/drr)...
TRANSCRIPT
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM/DRR) TEAM
Date: 12/14/2016
Director: Makarand (Mark) Hastak, Ph.D., PE, CCP
Professor and Head of Division of Construction Engineering and Management
Professor of Lyles School of Civil Engineering
Summary of Research Directions
1
SPARC LABORATORY
Presented bySayanti Mukhopadhyay, PhD Candidate
Prof. Hastak – DRM/DRR Group: Areas of Expertise
ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT
Infrastructure Management
DRR / DRM
Infrastructure Resilience &
Capacity building
Criticality, Vulnerability
& Severity Assessment
Post disaster supply chain & business continuity issues
Disaster financing & reinsurance
Debris Management
Planning optimal strategies for rehabilitation
Capital rehabilitation
planning
Budget allocation & prioritization
Post disaster Housing
Infrastructure finance
Infrastructure risk
1.Resilience & capacity building of infrastructure / communities
2. How to allocate & prioritize budget for such investments?
DSS for Electricity sector
Resilience investments
*DSS: Decision Support System
Optimal Planning for Infrastructure capacity building, resilience
Water Treatment Plant
Hospital
Power Plant
DEVELOPED MODELS
1. Vulnerability, Severity, Criticality Assessment2. Disaster impact mitigation support system (DIMSuS)3. Infrastructure capacity building analysis
TOOLS USED
1. Bayesian analysis2. Systems dynamics3. Discrete event simulation4. Genetic algorithm5. Network analysis
7 layers of interrelated critical infrastructure
Hospital
Simulating repeat events would fine tune the process for Building Capacities and Enhancing community Resilience
Long
Term
Emergency
Short
Termt1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t9 t10 t11
TimeDisaster 1
t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t9 t10 t11
Time
Disaster 3Disaster 2
Emergency
Short
Term
Simulating emergency, short- and long-term recovery strategies
FLOOD
Stress-strain capacity analysis for post-disaster infrastructure
Increase
in functional stress
on infrastructure facilities
Deteriorated capacities
of supporting
infrastructure
Enormous demands
for infrastructural
service
Disaster impacts on operation of critical infrastructure
Failure of the infrastructure to
provide required service for
recovery
Expected Outcomes
- Identification of bottleneck infrastructure
- Evaluation of ex-post capacity needs of critical infrastructure
Hospital Networks Pre-disaster conditionPost-disaster condition
Hospital
Infrastructure System
Zone of influence
Stress-strain concept- Functional stress for an infrastructure is defined as demand on
an infrastructure during unit time
- Strain of an infrastructure is defined as the rate at which the
capacity is used in response to the applied stress
Supply chain networks (SCN) needs reliable services of 7 types of critical infrastructure for service continuity• Civil / Civic / Social / Environmental / Financial / Educational / Cyber
5Infrastructure Supply Chain Network based on Business Continuity
1. Develop a robust supply chain network
model with respect to supply chain
continuity management
2. Develop a infrastructure network model
and identify critical routes and
infrastructures
3. Combine two models to assess as
coupling system
4. Perform criticality, vulnerability, and
serviceability assessments for the
infrastructure connectivity between
supply chain entities in terms of
Business Continuity
5. Find possible bottlenecks
infrastructures and develop optimal
strategies accordingly
Infrastructure-Supply chain Coupling Model
Supply Chain Network Model Critical Infrastructure Network Model
P(Failure of Infrastructure)
P(Failure of Interdependent Infrastructure)
P(Failure of Supply Chain Infrastructure)
Serviceability Assessment
serviceability
Monte Carlo Simulation Method
Activity Analysis Infrastructure Mapping
Assistance Level Relative Criticality
Criticality Assessment (Social & Economic Contribution)
Vulnerability Assessment (Structural & Functional Failure)
1
2
3
4
5
1 2
3
45
Strategic decision making for electricity sector resilience investments
Resilience Investment Issues
1.Extreme event risks are not considered in regulatory decision-making process
2.No incentive for investor-owned utilities (IOUs) to invest in overall risk minimization
3.Utilities work in a highly competitive & strict regulatory environment
4.Economic loss due to cascading impacts are undervalued
5.Investment strategies only consider reliability, not resilience enhancement
Risk Based Decision Support System (RDSS)
1.State electricity sector vulnerabilities based on historical tend & patterns
2.Estimate power outage risks in the electric sector
3.Assess cascading economic losses due to such power outages
4.Assist regulatory commissions to make informed decision making & consider minimizing extreme event risks in their regulatory decisions.
Water/Waste Water System
Failure Propagation
PGI vulnerability
Triggers
Cascading Failure in Infrastructure Business Disruption
Incr
ease
d e
con
om
ic lo
ss
Infrastructure Damage Public Health & Safety
Natural Gas & Oil
Communication
Transportation
Government & Business
Healthcare Facilities
INCREASED POWER OUTAGES (Climate Central 2014)
Disaster Debris/Waste ManagementDisaster debris (FEMA 2007)• Materials – both natural and man-made • Any material including trees, branches, personal property & building
material on public or private property that is directly deposited by a disaster
Historical amount of debris generated by a disaster
Football stadium = about 1M CY(Cubic yard)
Debris generated Instantly overwhelms current solid waste management capacity (5~10 times higher than annual solid waste from a community)
Debris removal : 27~40% of the total disaster recovery cost
Adaptive Decision Support System
to navigate complexity of post-disaster debris management
1. Develop a framework for effective post-disaster debris management
2. Identify network interdependency & network dynamics to optimize debris removal operation
3. Temporary Debris Management Site design/selection model to handle debris/waste in economic and environmental ways
4. Provide a GIS-based decision support system for optimal solutions and monitoring system for effective coordination among agencies
Expected Results- Input / Output
Entities at macro level
Entities at state level
Entities at micro level
Risks at macro level
Risks at state level
Risks at micro level
Impact analysis modules for entities at macro level
Impact analysis modules for entities at state level
Impact analysis modules for entities at micro level
Risk indicators at macro level
Risk indicators at state level
Risk indicators at micro level
Interaction among entitiesRisk structure and their
relationshipsImpact analysis modules Risk indicators
Entities at community level Risks at community level
Impact analysis modules for entities at community
level
Risk indicators at community level
Entities at macro level Risks at macro levelImpact analysis modules for entities at macro level
Risk indicators at macro level
Interaction among entitiesRisk structure and their
relationships Impact analysis modules Risk indicators
• Federal government or its ministry
• Multi-lateral financial institutions
• (Re) Insurance companies
• Special purpose vehicles
• Disaster risks
• Country risks
• Credit risks
• Market risks
• Event risks
• Liquidity risks
• Economic impact
• Social impact
• Environmental impact
• Financial impact
• Socio-economic risk indicators
• Environmental risk indicators
• Development indicators
• Monitoring and control indicators
•Interactions or relationships•Needs •Roles and responsibilities•Organization structure
•Risk parameters•Risk equations•Interdependencies
•Economic impact module•Financial impact module
•Probability graphs•Risk tables
There is a need to
• reduce the gap between overall losses and insured losses
• provide financial protection (ex ante) for post-disaster services
Disaster insurance and infrastructure policy
Risk Analysis Framework for Entities Involved in DRR
Summary
Decision Support Systems
• Optimal Planning for infrastructure capacity building / resilience• Assessing Strain Capacity using Functional Stress Strain Analysis• Infrastructure Supply Chain using Business Continuity Principle
• Extreme-event risk minimization & resilience enhancement in electricity sector
• Disaster Debris/Waste Management
• Disaster insurance and infrastructure policy
Can Be Applied to Both Developed & Developing Countries
Thanks!
Makarand (Mark) Hastak, PhD, PE, CCPProfessor and Head of Division of Construction Engineering and Management
Professor of Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University
Email: [email protected]