disaster and recovery: working toward more resilient communities · 2018-02-23 · warning system...
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Disaster and Recovery: Working Toward More Resilient CommunitiesTHALIA ANAGNOS
AVP GRADUATE & UNDERGRADUATE PROGRAMS
FEBRUARY 21, 2018
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ResilienceAbility to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully
adapt to adverse eventsEnvironment
(built & natural)
Social
Economic
Political
Earthquakes/TsunamisWeather-induced disastersClimate-induced disastersWildfiresHuman-induced disastersInfectious disease outbreaks
Disaster Resilience : A National ImperativeNational Academies Press, 2012
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• 60% of government buildings destroyed Incapacitated government
• Airport, ports and many roads inoperable Slowed access to aid
• No access to clean water and sanitation Cholera (6% of population affected)
• 1.5 million people displaced Destruction of social fabric (families, schools,
healthcare, jobs, access to food, etc.)• $8 billion in damage ($15 billion losses)
more than annual gross domestic product (GDP)
2010 Haiti Earthquake – M7.3
Environment (built & natural)
Social
Economic
Political
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ResilienceAbility to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully
adapt to adverse eventsBefore
• Determine risks
• Communicate Risks
• Mitigate risks
• Develop capacity to respond
• Develop policies
• Engage the community
During
• Warn community
• Monitor the situation
• Evacuate
After
• Short term
• Communicate
• Restore vital systems
• Food, water, shelter
• Safety
• Healthcare
• Assess damage
• Long term
• Plan for future
• Mitigate risks
• Rebuild
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Worldwide trends are fueling the discussion
10 year average
total economic loss
Insurance Industry losses (Swiss Re)
2016 $54 bill
2017 >$100 bill
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Explore examples of resilience from the 2010 Chile earthquake Tsunami warning system
Urban planning and urban redesign
Use of base isolation
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Chile sits on a convergent plate boundary on the Ring of Fire
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S. Central Chile Feb. 27, 2010M 8.8, 3:34 AM
• 500 times more powerful than 2010 Haiti
Plate rupture 550 km long; 80% population felt EQ
3 minutes of shaking
526 deaths
370,000 homes damaged
$30 billion loss (18% GDP)
Tsunami
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Explore examples of resilience from the 2010 Chile earthquake Tsunami warning system
Urban planning and urban redesign
Use of base isolation
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Subduction earthquake generated tsunami
Nazca Plate
South American Plate
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Warning the community can mitigate human and economic losses from a tsunami
Tsunami warning center
1. Monitor earthquakes globally
2. CAN EQ generate tsunami?
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Warning the community can mitigate human and economic losses from a tsunami
Tsunami warning center
1. Monitor earthquakes globally
2. CAN EQ generate tsunami?
3. Monitor sea surface height
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Warning the community can mitigate human and economic losses from a tsunami
Tsunami warning center
1. Monitor earthquakes globally
2. CAN EQ generate tsunami?
3. Monitor sea surface height◦ International and Chilean gauges
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Warning the community can mitigate human and economic losses from a tsunami
Tsunami warning center
1. Monitor earthquakes globally
2. CAN EQ generate tsunami?
3. Monitor sea surface height◦ International and Chilean data
4. Model estimated time to arrival
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Warning the community can mitigate human and economic losses from a tsunami
Tsunami warning center
1. Monitor earthquakes globally
2. CAN EQ generate tsunami?
3. Monitor sea surface height◦ International and Chilean data
4. Model estimated time to arrivalo Distant or local event
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Warning the community can mitigate human and economic losses from a tsunami
Tsunami warning center
1. Monitor earthquakes globally
2. CAN EQ generate tsunami?
3. Monitor sea surface height◦ International and Chilean data
4. Model estimated time to arrival
5. Warn impacted communities
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Warning System
Increased Resilience
Warn local community
Warn communities
globally
EvacuateShut down sensitive systems
Move or secure vulnerable
objects
EQ warning systems (Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, US)
Receive via phone, TV, radio, siren◦ Move to safe place (under desk,
away from machinery, …)
◦ Stop surgery procedure
◦ Stop car to side of road or prevent from entering tunnel
◦ Slow high speed rail
◦ Warn plane from landing
◦ Open firehouse doors
◦ Stop sensitive industry processes
◦ Isolate systems to prevent cascading failures
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Explore examples of resilience from the 2010 Chile earthquake Tsunami warning system
Urban planning and urban redesign
Use of base isolation
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18 minutes after the EQ Constitución was inundated by the tsunami
La Poza
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Before
After
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City developed sustainable reconstruction plan
Relocate 100 families from La Poza
Social considerations (fisherman, land owned for generations, close to town)
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City developed sustainable reconstruction plan
Relocate 100 families from La Poza
Social considerations (fisherman, land owned for generations, close to town)
Create forest where La Poza used to be (acts as tsunami buffer)
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City developed sustainable reconstruction plan
Relocate 100 families from La Poza
Social considerations (fisherman, land owned for generations, close to town)
Create forest where La Poza used to be (dissipate 40% to 70% of tsunami power)
Government partnered with “Elemental” architectural firm to build Villa Verde
Only had $10,000 per house, designed ½ a good house (40 m2, 430 ft2)
◦ Kitchen/lounge, a bathroom and two bedrooms
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Villa Verde today
Social housing, but units owned by occupants
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Villa Verde today
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Urban Redesign
Increased Resilience
Relocated residents to
safer location
Affordable attractive
homes
Created tsunami buffer
Engaged community in planning
Reduced industrial
runoff into river
Other considerations
Created community green space near the river
Accelerated reconstruction (6 months for plan, 4 years to complete)
Families own their homes
Loss of previous community
Far from jobs and services
Lack of transportation
Fear of forest fires
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Explore examples of resilience from the 2010 Chile earthquake Tsunami warning system
Urban planning and urban redesign
Use of base isolation
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Why Buildings Behave Badly
Photograph: Claudio NunezAlto Rio Photograph: Primera Compañía de Concepción
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Damage &
Collapse
Previous Damage
Heavy Structures
Inadequate Connections
Motion Amplification (Resonance) Ground
Failure
Asymmetric Shapes
Brittle Materials
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F = mam = mass of building
a = acceleration of ground
ground acceleration
Animation from www.exploratorium.edu/faultline/engineering/engineering5.html
Newton’s Second Law
Think what this means about how different types of structures respond to earthquakes
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k
m
T = 2πk
m
k
m
k
m
increase building period
Building
Height
Typical
Natural
Period
2 story 0.2 sec
5 story 0.5 sec
10 story 1.0 sec
20 story 2.0 sec
30 story 3.0 sec
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Resonance
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frequency content of ground motion close to building's natural frequency◦ tends to amplify building response
◦ building suffers the greatest damage from ground motion at a frequency close or equal to its own natural frequency
Mexico City earthquake of Sept. 19, 1985
• majority of collapsed buildings ~ 20 stories tall
• T~ 2.0 secondsCollapsed
• different heights & natural periods,
• undamaged even though located right next to damaged 20 story buildings
Minimal Damage
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Base Isolators Limit the Ground Motion That Enters the Building
Displacement is concentrated in isolators
Reduces drift between stories
Click Here
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Social Housing at Santa Cruz• first floor completely collapsed
• 2 deaths
• 3 other buildings significant damage
• government demolished all and built new social housing community
• full ownership of units
• 2 x size of previous units
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Let’s go down to the basement
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Clínica San Carlos de Apoquindo
Not isolated base isolated
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Base isolator
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Base isolation
Increased Resilience
Reduced damage
Functional immediately
after EQ
Cost not significantly
higher
Protection of contents
Damage concentrated
in isolators
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267 friction pendulum bearings
Bearings reduce EQ force demands on building by 70%
Each bearing can displace up to 20 inches horizontally in any direction
Base Isolation at SFO
SFO International Terminal
Isolators: Earthquake Protection Systems
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Base Isolators - Historic BuildingSF City Hall - extensive damage in Loma
Prieta EQ
530 seismic isolators (elastomeric bearings)
26 inch horizontal movement
Additional reinforcing◦ New ground floor
◦ Concrete shear walls around the light courts
◦ Steel collectors to deliver seismic forces to new shear walls
◦ Reinforcing of rotunda tower walls
◦ Installation of steel braces and shotcrete walls at various levels of the dome
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Other Bay Area Retrofits with Base Isolators
•Oakland City Hall
•Hearst Mining Building, UC Berkeley
•Ninth District U.S. Court of Appeals
•Asian Art Museum
•Channing House – Palo Alto
•Martin Luther King, Jr. Civic Center Building, Berkeley
•Approach to Golden Gate Bridge
•Richmond-San Rafael Bridge
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“…issue a consensus report that integrates information from the natural, physical, technical, economic, and social sciences to identify ways to increase national resilience to hazards and disasters in the United States.”
• Characteristics of a resilient nation
• Goals and actions to be taken to achieve this vision
• “All-hazards” approach
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Disaster Resilience : A National ImperativeNational Academies Press, 2012
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You have your work cut out for you
Resources: http://sites.nationalacademies.org/pga/ResilientAmerica