directorate of government debt securitiesmay 22, 2015 · 3. crisis management protocol & bond...
TRANSCRIPT
Directorate of Government Debt Securities Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia
Government Securities Management May 22, 2015
OUTLINE
1. Government Securities Management and Financing Strategy
2. Government Securities Performance
3. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization Framework
4. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile
2
DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Republic in any jurisdiction or as an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is not and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, investment or other product advice.
Government Securities Management and
Financing Strategy
General Strategy for Debt Financing 2015
1. Optimizes Governments securities (SBN) issuance from domestic sources to fulfill Budget need and uses
foreign debts as complimentary;
2. Determines debt instrument by taken into account of market need in regard to market development and
portfolio management;
3. Issues Retail Bond for instrument diversification and financial inclusion;
4. Optimizes foreign and domestic loan instrument to fulfill Budget need on capital expenditure;
5. Conducts active portfolio management of Government securities through, among others, debt buyback
and debt switch, in order to promote market liquidity and stability;
6. Strengthens the function of Investor Relations Unit, among others, through the proactive dissemination of
information, rapid and effective responses, and effective communication with investors and other stakeholders.
4
Financing Trend, 2004 – 2015
(trillion IDR)
Notes: * Preliminary 2014 ** Revised Budget 2015
5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015**
Govt Securities - net 6.9 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 91.1 119.9 159.7 224.7 265.0 297.7
Domestic Loan - - - - - 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.7
External Loan - net (28.1) (10.3) (26.6) (26.6) (18.4) (12.4) (4.6) (17.8) (23.5) (5.8) (15.4) (20.0)
Others/Non-Debt - net 42.0 (1.2) 20.0 9.1 16.6 25.5 4.6 28.3 38.1 18.1 (12.2) (65.5)
Budget Defisit, % to GDP 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.9
1.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
0.1
1.6
0.7
1.1
1.9
2.3 2.2
1.9
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Government Budget FY 2015
6
In billion IDR Financing sources Revised
Budget 2015 come from debt
financing (85.78% from
Government Securities, 9.62%
from Loan) and the rest 4.61%
from non debt financing.
In the Revised Budget 2015
(APBN-P 2015), deficit is
narrowing from 2.21% to 1.91%
of GDP
To maintain resilience and fiscal
sustainability
Despite lower budget deficit, net
debt in 2015 is higher
Government injects equity to SOEs
to increase their capacity to support
the achievement of the national
priority agenda
Stand-by loans are in place
to anticipate adverse
situations.
A. Total Revenue 1,793,588.9 16.1 1,761,642.8 15.1
B. Total Expenditure 2,039,483.6 18.3 1,984,149.7 17.0
Interest Payment 151,968.3 1.4 155,730.9 1.3
C. Primary Balance (93,926.4) (0.8) (66,776.0) (0.6)
D. Deficit (245,894.7) (2.2) (222,506.9) (1.9)
E. Financing 245,894.7 2.2 222,506.9 1.9
I. Non Debt (8,961.2) (0.1) (56,874.0) (0.5)
II. Debt 254,855.9 2.3 279,380.9 2.4
1. Government Securities (Net) 277,049.8 2.5 297,698.4 2.5
2. Loan (Net) (22,193.9) (0.2) (18,317.5) (0.2)
i. Foreign Loan (Net) (23,815.1) (0.2) (20,008.1) (0.2)
Disbursement 47,037.1 0.4 48,647.0 0.4
- Program Loan 7,140.0 0.1 7,500.0 0.1
- Project Loan 39,897.1 0.4 41,147.0 0.4
On Lending (4,319.4) (0.0) (4,471.9) (0.0)
Foreign Loan Principal Payment (66,532.8) (0.6) (64,183.2) (0.5)
ii. Domestic Loan (Net) 1,621.2 0.0 1,690.6 0.0
Disbursement 2,000.0 0.0 2,000.0 0.0
Domestic Loan Principal Payment (378.8) (0.0) (309.4) (0.0)
Assumptions :
GDP (trillion IDR) (Y.o.Y) 11,146,943.0 11,700,808.0
Growth (%) 5.8 5.7
Inflation (%) y-o-y 4.4 5.0
3-month-SPN (%) 6.0 6.2
IDR/USD (average) 11,900 12,500
% to
GDPBudget
% to
GDP
Revised
Budget
2015
Description
7
Domestic:
Auction:
conventional securities: 23 x
Islamic securities: 22 x
Non-Auction:
retail bonds: ORI + Sukuk Retail.
International Bonds:
Issuance of International Bonds as complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market and provide benchmark for corporate issuance, consist of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds
Maximum issuance international bond 22.6% from target gross
Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target:
– GDS (SUN): 79.9% – Sukuk: 20.1% – ATM for auctions:
8.2 year Front Loading strategy: • in the first semester is
targeted at 63%. • for domestic issuance
is also targeted at first semester at 59%
FR 69 – 5 Y
FR 70 – 10 Y
FR 71 – 15 Y
FR 68 – 20 Y
Benchmark Series for 2014 & 2015
(in trillion Rp)
Instruments Budget
Revised
Budget
Govt Securities (net) 277.0 297.7
Redemption 135.6 136.5
Cash Management 15.0 15.0
Buyback 3.0 3.0
Govt Securities (gross) 430.7 452.2
Domestic 80.0% 77.4%
Retail 9.3% 8.9%
Auctions 70.7% 68.5%
International Bond 20.0% 22.6%
Indicative Target
Government Securities Financing (Gross) 2015
Securities Financing Realization 2015
*Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch 8
*(Million IDR)
Budget 2015*Revised Budget
2015*
Realization
(ao May 19, 2015)*
% Realization to
Revised Budget
2015
Government Securities Net 277.049.800 297.698.382 184.775.746 62,07%
Government Securities Maturing in 2015 153.612.324 154.487.324 56.088.289 36,31%
-Buyback 3.000.000 3.000.000 - 0,00%
Issuance Need 2015* 430.662.124 452.185.706 240.864.035 53,27%
Government Debt Securities (GDS) 162.732.000
Domestic GDS 112.360.000
-Coupon GDS 82.310.000
-Conventional T-Bills 27.050.000
-Private Placement 3.000.000
-Retail Bonds -
International Bonds 50.372.000
-USD GMTN 50.372.000
-Euro GMTN -
-Samurai Bonds -
Government Islamic Debt Securities 78.132.035
Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 51.860.035
- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated
Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 27.195.000
- Retail Sukuk 21.965.035
- Private Placement 2.700.000
Global Sukuk 26.272.000
Government Securities Performance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Foreign Incoming Bids Foreign Awarded Bids % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)
10 10
• Average Foreign incoming bids 2015 is Rp6,98T, compare to period in 2014, which reached 7,58T • Average incoming bids 2015 = Rp24,05T, increased from average incoming bids 2014 = Rp22,65T
• Average awarded bid 2015 = Rp10, 94T while average awarded bid 2014 = Rp10,97 T.
*as of May 11, 2015
Average incoming bids
2014 = Rp22,65T/auction
Average awarded bids
2014 = Rp10,97T/auction
GDS Primary Market Performance 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 19-May-15
Incoming Bids Awarded Bids Foreign Incoming Bids Foreign Awarded Bids % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)
11 11
• Average Foreign incoming bids 2015 is Rp4,99T
• Average incoming bids 2015 = Rp16,22T, increased from average incoming bids 2014 = Rp14,02T
• Average awarded bid 2015 = Rp6,83T, while average awarded bid 2014 = Rp6,52T.
*as of May 19, 2015
Avr . Awarded bids
2014 = 6,52T
Avr. Incoming Bid 2014: 14,02T
Avr. Foreign Incoming Bid 2014:
4,42T
GS Primary Market Performance 2015
2468
10121416182022
Mei'0
8
Agust'0
8
Nop'0
8
Feb'0
9
Mei'0
9
Agust'0
9
Nop'0
9
Feb'1
0
Mei'1
0
Agust'1
0
Nop'1
0
Feb'1
1
Mei'1
1
Agust'1
1
Nop'1
1
Feb'1
2
Mei'1
2
Agust'1
2
Nop'1
2
Feb'1
3
Mei'1
3
Agust'1
3
Nop'1
3
Feb'1
4
Mei'1
4
Agust'1
4
Nop'1
4
Feb'1
5
Mei'1
5
5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y
7.89 (5Y), 8.13 (10Y), 8.30 (15Y), 8.29(20Y)
3.55 2.98 4.39
5.88 5.73 5.31 7.91
10.91 11.11 9.18
6.39
9.97 0.41
0.15
0.22
0.16 0.38 0.41
0.76
1.14 0.81
0.77
0.62
0.62
0.27 0.30
0.34 1.54
3.45
6.70
8.80
7.45 7.19
4.84
4.65
3.84
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Trili
un
OUTRIGHT REPO BANK REPO BI
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Spread (bid-ask)
Global Financial
Crisis
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis
[In Percentage] As of May 22 2015
Activities of the domestic bonds are growing Yields of Benchmark Series steadily decrease
Bid Ask Spread 10 Y Government Bond Turn Over 10 Y Government Bond
As of May 20, 2015
As of May 21, 2015
Secondary Market Performance
Spread 8.015bps
(ask 7.969%, bid
8.061%)
12
5.12
7.04
5.15
14.12 12.88
10.75 10.53
-
3.00
6.00
9.00
12.00
15.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LCY 10 Year
Government
Bonds
Latest Yield YTD Change (BP)
MTD
Change
(BP)
HK 1.712 -18.4 +19.3
ID 8.095 +29.9 +38.5
JP 0.414 +8.5 +7.2
KR 2.515 -9.0 +9.1
MY 3.874 -27.3 +2.2
PH 4.347 +48.3 +3.3
SG 2.372 -+9.2 +12.6
TH 2.829 +10.0 +35.4
US 2.190 +1.9 +15.8
VN 6.730 -50.0 +8.0
• Market Watch as of May 22, 2015
• Source: Asian Bonds Online
Yield GS on peer’s market
13
Source: IDMA, Bloomberg, as of May 22, 2015
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
22 May '15 15 May '15
22 Apr '15 9 Feb '12
23 Sep '11 27 Oct '08
13 Sep'05
[in percentage]
Tenor 22-May-15 15-May-15 22-Apr-15 9-Feb-12 23-Sep-11 27-Oct-08 13 Sep'05
1Y 7.10 6.99 6.62 3.30 5.29 19.37
2Y 7.50 7.53 7.09 4.21 6.01 17.35 14.59
3Y 7.69 7.65 7.29 4.33 6.13 19.93
4Y 7.79 7.68 7.39 4.39 6.54 17.17 14.14
5Y 7.89 7.80 7.43 4.44 6.69 17.46 14.96
6Y 7.91 7.85 7.44 4.79 6.81 17.05 15.24
7Y 7.97 7.86 7.45 4.88 7.08 17.06 16.17
10Y 8.13 8.09 7.57 5.02 7.43 20.91 15.75
15Y 8.30 8.21 7.76 5.47 7.83 16.65 14.12
20Y 8.29 8.22 7.80 5.96 8.20 20.27
30Y 8.61 8.58 8.11 6.17 8.29 20.37
Ownership of Tradable Domestic Government
Securities
In the end of January 2015, foreign investor ownership record the highest percentage of ownership, showing their
increasing appetite on the Indonesia’s government securities.
14
Ownership of IDR Tradable Government Securities (in Trillion IDR)
`
Banks 217,27 33,88% 265,03 36,63% 299,66 36,73% 335,43 33,70% 375,55 31,04% 372,66 29,95% 349,26 26,75% 367,03 27,92% 358,21 27,17% 368,68 27,66%
Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia*) 17,42 2,72% 7,84 1,08% 3,07 0,37% 44,44 4,47% 41,63 3,44% 38,37 3,08% 85,40 6,54% 78,03 5,94% 90,22 6,84% 93,23 6,99%
Non-Banks 406,53 63,40% 450,75 62,29% 517,53 63,09% 615,38 61,83% 792,78 65,52% 833,42 66,97% 870,83 66,71% 869,60 66,15% 870,18 65,99% 871,03 65,35%
Mutual Funds 51,16 7,98% 47,22 6,53% 43,19 5,27% 42,50 4,27% 45,79 3,78% 47,16 3,79% 50,19 3,84% 53,34 4,06% 53,43 4,05% 53,88 4,04%
Insurance Company 79,30 12,37% 93,09 12,86% 83,42 10,17% 129,55 13,02% 150,60 12,45% 149,95 12,05% 155,54 11,91% 159,87 12,16% 160,63 12,18% 161,85 12,14%
Foreign Holders 195,76 30,53% 222,86 30,80% 270,52 32,98% 323,83 32,54% 461,35 38,13% 500,83 40,25% 504,08 38,61% 507,65 38,61% 506,58 38,42% 505,62 37,93%
Foreign Govt's&Central Banks** 50,06 6,10% 78,39 7,88% 103,42 8,55% 104,66 8,41% 101,41 7,77% 102,16 7,77% 101,52 7,70% 99,79 7,49%
Pension Fund 36,75 5,73% 34,39 4,75% 56,46 6,88% 39,47 3,97% 43,30 3,58% 43,00 3,46% 44,73 3,43% 45,16 3,44% 45,40 3,44% 45,54 3,42%
Securities Company 0,13 0,02% 0,14 0,02% 0,30 0,04% 0,88 0,09% 0,81 0,07% 0,65 0,05% 0,63 0,05% 0,65 0,05% 0,66 0,05% 0,74 0,06%
Individual 32,48 3,26% 30,41 2,51% 28,35 2,28% 47,63 3,65% 33,26 2,53% 32,92 2,50% 32,61 2,45%
Others 43,43 6,77% 53,05 7,33% 63,64 7,76% 46,68 4,69% 60,51 5,00% 63,49 5,10% 68,03 5,21% 69,68 5,30% 70,58 5,35% 70,77 5,31%
Total 641,21 100% 723,61 100% 820,27 100% 995,25 100% 1.209,96 100% 1.244,45 100% 1.305,49 100% 1.314,66 100% 1.318,62 100% 1.332,93 100%
1) Including ownership of SBSN (government sukuk).
2) Foreign are consisted of Private Banking, Fund/Asset Management, Securities, Insurance, Pension Fund.
3) Others are consisted of Corporation, Individual, Foundation.
*) Since February 8th, 2008, repo transaction of Government Securities to Bank Indonesia was included.
**) Since November 21, 2014, foreign government(s) was included to the same category as foreign central bank(s).
Jan-15 22-May-15Dec-14Dec-12Dec-11 Dec-13Dec-10 Mar-15 Apr-15 08-May-15
Foreign Investor Activity (yearly)
15
Foreign Net Buy/Sell up to March (YTD) & yearly total (IDR trillion)
Investors Net Buy/Sell (IDR trillion)
Source: Bank Indonesia
• Foreign investors (Asing) recorded a net buy of IDR44 trillion (year to date). While during the year of 2014 Foreign net buy reached IDR137.5 trillion.
• In April 2015 foreign investor recorded net buy of IDR46.8 trillion, thus during May (a.o May 8) net sell is recorded IDR2.79 trillion.
Note: *) as of May 18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Domestic 55,3 49,0 121,7 77,2 76,4
Foreign 27,1 47,7 53,3 137,5 44,0
Total 82,4 96,7 175,0 214,7 120,5
27,1
47,7
53,3
137,5
44,0
25,7
6,0
28,2
53,2
46,8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
April YTD
Foreign Investor Activity (as of May 8, 2015)
Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor [In IDR Trillion]
Foreign investors mostly dominated by high quality long term investors 16
As of May 22,2015
10% 12% 8% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5%8%
3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
18%17%
16% 13% 11% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13%
21%
25%
28% 32% 38% 34% 33% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 33% 34% 34% 35% 35% 35% 36%
46% 38% 45% 44% 41% 40% 41% 41% 42% 43% 42% 43% 42% 43% 43% 44% 44% 44% 44%
30,53% 30,80%
32,98%
32,54%33,64%
34,59%
35,72%
35,66%
36,33%
36,81%
37,30% 37,80%39,41%
38,13%40,25%40,03%
38,61%
38,51%37,93%
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Mar-14
Apr-14 May-14
June 14
July 14 Aug 14
Sep-14
Oct-14 Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15Feb-15 Mar-15
Apr-15 22-May-
15
>10 >5-10 >2-5 >1-2 0-1 % Foreign Ownership to Total (RHS)
4,22
(19,98)
2,81
(1,76)
10,13
23,98
6,08
(0,37)
4,82
16,49 15,77 16,10
20,15
6,43
14,67 15,95
13,17 12,49
21,34
(19,84)
39,48
6,84
(3,59)
0,52
(0,29)
-0,08
-0,06
-0,04
-0,02
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
(30,00)
(20,00)
(10,00)
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Capital Inflows [LHS] capital inflows over foreign [RHS]
Crisis Management Protocol &
Bond Stabilization Framework
Pre-emptive Measures
Implementing Crisis Management Protocol
(CMP)
Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework
(BSF)
Enhancing coordination between government
institutions and continuous dialogue with market
participants
Specific policies in place to address crises
enacted in 2015 budget law
Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation
Crisis Management Protocol
Indicators to determine crisis level of
Government Securities Market condition (normal,
aware, alert, crisis)
Several market indicators that are monitored
daily:
- Yield of benchmark series;
- Exchange rate;
- Jakarta Composite Index;
- Foreign ownership in government securities
Policies to address the crisis at every level :
- Repurchase the government securities at
secondary market
- Postpone or stop the issuance
First Line of Defense
State’s Budget
Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing
and Risk Management
Investment fund at Government Investment
Agency (PIP) (min. level Aware)
State Owned Enterprises
(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Aware)
Social Security Organizing
Agency (BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware)
Second Line of Defense
State’s Budget
State General Treasury Account
(Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert)
Accumulated cash surplus (S18AL)
(min. Level Crisis)
State Owned Enterprises
(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Alert)
Social Security Organizing
Agency (BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Alert)
Bond Stabilization Framework
Implement Measures to Manage External Volatility …to mitigate sudden reversals
Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile
Maturity Profile Central Government Debt
as of End of April 2015
Maturity Profile of Central Debt Government by Currency (in trillion Rp)
Maturity Profile of Central Government Debt by Instruments (in trillion Rp)
20
020406080
100120140160180200220240
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
-206
0
Foreign Domestic
43,1%
56,9%
Foreign Domestik
020406080
100120140160180200220240
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
-206
0
Gov't Securities Loan
75,2%
24,8% Gov Sec
Loan
21
Notes: • * Preliminary Figures
Outstanding Central Government Debt by Instrument
Nominal %
a. Foreign Loan (in billion USD) 68.6 68.4 63.6 58.1 53.9 53.0 24.7%
Bilateral 42.3 42.1 37.2 31.2 26.7 26.4 12.3%
Multilateral 23.2 23.5 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.0 10.7%
Commercial 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.2 3.7 3.5 1.6%
Suppliers 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%
b Domestic Loan (in billion USD) 0.0 0.1 0.19 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1%
c. Government Securities (in billion USD) 118.4 131.0 140.8 136.3 155.2 161.7 75.2%
Foreign Currency Denominated 18.0 21.6 27.4 32.8 36.7 39.6 18.4%
Rupiah Denominated 100.4 109.4 113.4 103.5 118.5 122.1 56.8%
Total Central Government Debt
(in billion USD)187.0 199.5 194.6 209.4 215.0
Total Central Government Debt
(in trilion IDR)1,681.7 1,808.9 2,371.4 2,604.9 2,781.0
Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) 8,991.0 9,068.0 12,189.0 12,440.0 12,937.0
GDP (in trillion IDR) 6,864.1 7,831.7 9,524.7 10,542.7
Debt to GDP Ratio 24.5% 23.1% 23.0% 24.9% 24.7%
2010Description 2011 2012 2013
1,977.7
Apr-15
204.5
9,670.0
2014*)
8,615.7
22 Notes: • * Preliminary Figures
Outstanding Central Government Debt by Currency
2010 2011
Original Currency
IDR (in trillion) 902.6 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.5 1,582.7
Gov't Securities 902.4 992.0 1,096.2 1,261.7 1,474.6 1,579.3
Loan 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.3
USD (in billion) 39.6 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 63.7
Gov't Securities 16.9 20.4 25.6 31.3 34.2 37.2
Loan 22.8 23.5 24.2 25.4 26.8 26.5
JPY (in billion) 2,689.8 2,589.8 2,498.8 2,395.3 2,204.0 2,177.9
Gov't Securities 95.0 95.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 155.0
Loan 2,594.8 2,494.8 2,343.8 2,228.8 2,049.0 2,022.9
EUR (in billion) 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.2 5.1 5.1
Gov't Securities - - - - 1.0 1.0
Loan 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.1
Other currencies
Equivalent in Billion USD
IDR 100.4 109.5 113.5 103.7 118.8 122.3 56.9%
USD 39.8 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 63.7 29.7%
JPY 33.1 33.4 29.1 22.8 18.5 18.3 8.5%
EUR 7.2 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.7 2.6%
Other currencies 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.0 4.9 2.3%
Total Eq. in Billion USD 187.0 199.5 204.5 194.9 209.4 215.0
Equivalent in Trillion IDR
IDR 902.8 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.5 1,582.7
USD 357.6 397.9 481.9 692.0 758.3 824.6
JPY 297.6 302.5 281.2 278.3 229.8 237.1
EUR 65.0 58.5 57.5 71.1 76.9 73.7
Other currencies 58.6 57.1 59.1 70.2 62.4 62.9
Total Eq. in Trillion IDR 1,681.7 1,808.9 1,977.7 2,375.5 2,604.9 2,781.0
Foreign Currency Portion 46.3% 45.1% 44.5% 46.8% 43.3% 43.1%
Exchange Rate Assumption USD/IDR 8,991 9,068 9,670 12,189.0 12,440.0 12,937.0
----------------Multiple Currencies -----------------------
2014*)
Apr-152012 2013
Central Government Debt Ratios
Debt to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Revenue and
Expenditure Ratio
Debt Service to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Tax Revenue &
Central Government Expenditure Ratio
23 Notes: Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version] * Preliminary Figures
8,9
%
7,7
%
7,5
%
7,9
%
8,7
%
8,5
%
7,2
%
6,7
%
6,8
%
7,6
%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Interest to Revenue Interest to Expenditure
12
,2%
10
,7%
10
,8%
10
,5%
11
,7%
12,7
%
10,6
%
9,9%
9,9%
11,2
%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure
24,5% 23,1% 23,0%
24,9% 24,7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
3,1%
2,9%
3,2%
2,9%
3,4%
2,00%
2,50%
3,00%
3,50%
4,00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Risk Indicators
24 Risk indicators are improving amidst pressure from rupiah depreciation Risk indicators show improvements in interest rate risk and stability in exchange and refinancing risks
Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate Risk
Debt Maturing in 1,3, and 5 years Average Time To Maturity (ATM) - Years
20,318,8
16,2 16,014,8 14,3
26,1 25,9
22,5 23,220,9 21,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q1-2015
Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%]
11,3 10,4 10,2 11,7 10,7 10,2
46,2 45,1 44,446,7
43,3 43,8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q1-2015
FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) **) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%)
9,46
9,32
9,70
9,60
9,74 9,75
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q1-2015
ATM (in years)
7,1 8,2 7,28,6 7,7 8,4
20,822,7 21,5 21,8
20,2 21,4
34,2 34,632,4 33,4 33,9 34,6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*) Q1-2015
in < 1 year (%) in < 3 year (%) in < 5 year (%)
Notes: *)Preliminary Figures, **)Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version]
Primary Market Performance 2015: Global Bonds (USD)
25
RI0125 RI0145
Summary Terms of Offering
Issuer
Issuer Ratings
Issue Ratings
Issue
Size USD2 billion USD2 billion
Pricing / Settlement Date 8 January / 15 January 2015 8 January / 15 January 2015
Maturity 10 years due 15 January 2025 30 years due 15 January 2045
Coupon 4.125% payable semi annually 5.125% payable semi annually
Reoffer Yield / Price 4.200% / 99.393% 5.200% / 98.867%
Format Rule 144A / Reg S Rule 144A / Reg S
Listing SGX-ST SGX-ST
Total Book Order USD10.05 billion USD9.23 billion
Republic of Indonesia
Baa3 Stable (Moody’s), BB+ Stable (S&P), BBB- Stable (Fitch)
Baa3 (Moody’s), BB+ (S&P), BBB- (Fitch)
USD fixed rate
Allocation by Geography
Allocation by Investor Type
Indonesia13%
Asia15%
Europe24%
USA48%
RI0125
Indonesia4%
Asia20%
Europe23%
USA53%
RI0145RI0125
RI0125
RI0145
RI0145
Fund / Asset Managers
73%
Banks14%
Insurance / Pension Funds
9%
Private Banks2%
SWF2%
Fund / Asset Managers
75%
Banks8%
Insurance / Pension Funds
13%
Private Banks2%
SWF2%
END OF PRESENTATION Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia Directorate of Government Debt Securities Frans Seda building, 4th floor, Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat – Postal Code: 10710 Phone: +6221 3810175 Fax. : +6221 3846516 Website: www.djppr.kemenkeu.go.id
Key Initiatives to Develop Domestic Gov. Securities
Market
Facilitating the development of derivative instrument and Government securities repo:
• Develop a deep and liquid repo market, coordinate with FSA
• Facilitating the development of Government Bond Futures
Focused on a few benchmark series with large outstanding
Introduction of an electronic trading platform (ETP)
Strengthening Investor Relations (IR)
Launch a new primary dealer system
Increase domestic participation from key investors
Continuously improving bond stabilization framework
27
Securities Financing Realization 2014
*Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch
28
*(Million IDR)
Revised Budget
2014*
Realization
(ao Dec 31, 2014)*
% Realization to
Revised Budget
2014
Remaining target*
Government Securities Net 264,983,700 264,978,114 100.00% -
Government Securities Maturing in 2014 163,151,013 163,151,013 100.00% -
-Buyback 1,350,968 1,350,968 100.00% -
Issuance Need 2014* 428,134,713 428,129,127 100.00% 5,586
Government Debt Securities (GDS) 352,588,379
Domestic GDS 284,376,795
-Coupon GDS (Auction, Private Placement) 199,870,000
-Conventional T-Bills (Auction, Private Placement) 48,500,000
-SPNNT 20140303 12,400,000
-Retail Bonds 23,606,795
International Bonds 68,211,584
-USD Global Bonds 48,466,366
-USD Domestic Bonds 3,985,450
-Euro Denominated Bonds 15,759,767
-Samurai Bonds -
Government Islamic Debt Securities 75,540,748
Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 57,794,345
- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 38,471,000
- Retail Sukuk 19,323,345
Global Sukuk 17,746,403
Domestic Institutional Investors
Pension Fund Insurance Company
Mutual Fund
Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK),
data processsed
29
71,48
110,13
142,97
159,00
180,28
244,32
220,24
235,79
247,24
45%
37%
33%
28%25%
20% 25%
20% 21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
Government Securities (GS) Deposit Bond Stock Others Total Investasi % SBN (RHS)
90,1
108,4
141,5 136,5
156,4
169,5 164,2
167,2 173,8
180,4 185,1
27,91% 27,43%
21,90%22,64%
19,68%18,36%
19,46%18,33% 17,85%
16,88% 16,71%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
25,00%
30,00%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Feb-15
Govt. Securities (GS) Bond Deposit Stock
Mutual Funds Others Total Investment (in Trillion) % GS to Total Investment (RHS)
241,7
326,2
356,5 361,4
497,0 505,5
552,3
585,8 594,1610,1
629,8
27,09%
24,01%
21,77%
24,11%
19,74%20,71%
12,79%13,54%
23,69%22,79% 22,92%
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Des-14 Feb-15
Govt. Securities (GS) Bond DepositStock Mutual Funds OthersTotal Investment (in Trillion) % GS to Total Investment (RHS)
Individual & Retail Investors
Retail Govt Securities investors in primary market Individual Ownership
30
16,561
33,546
47,434
23,617
15,239 15,198
23,127
34,776 32,638
14,295 17,231 15,487 17,606 17,783
34,692
29,706
6,412
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Conventional Retail bonds Islamic Retail bonds Retail Saving bonds
3.28%
2.51%2.28% 2.08%
3.65%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
December 2013 Dec, 2014 Jan, 2015 Feb, 2015 March 27, 2015
Nominal (IDR Trillion) RHS
Percent