director of planning & studies directorate - · pdf filedirector of planning & studies...

Mr Keith MillerDirector of Planning & Studies Directorate

Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company(ADWEC)

Telephone: +971 (2) 694 3816 Fax: +971 (2) 642 [email protected] www.adwec.ae

ADWEC ADWEC (Winter 2008 / 2009)

Electricity & Water DemandElectricity & Water DemandForecast 2009 Forecast 2009 -- 20302030

Presentation OverviewPresentation OverviewPurpose of presentation :

• Present ADWEC’s 2009 - 2030 demand forecastsThe ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast was completed in April 2009.

Based on available data in late 2008 / early 2009.

Thus all 2009 data shown in this presentation are forecasts not actuals.

Higher demand creates a need for more new IWPP capacity.

ADWEC must purchase additional IWPP capacity to satisfy demand increases.

Scope of presentation :

• Introduction• ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecast 2009 – 2030• ADWEC Water Demand Forecast 2009 – 2030• Summary

• Annex: ADWEC Planning Process

IntroductionIntroduction

Within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi:

ADWEC is the Single Buyer and Seller of electricity and water.

ADWEC is responsible inter alia for :

• Electricity & Water Demand Forecasting. • Electricity & Water Capacity Planning.• Contracting of new IWPP capacity and BST preparation.• Contracting for gas / fuel supply.• Financial Settlement

ADWEC’s legal Demand Forecasting and Capacity Planningduties are fulfilled via annual :

• Electricity & Water Demand Forecasts.

• Statement of Future Capacity Requirements.

ADWEC and Law Number 2 of 1998ADWEC and Law Number 2 of 1998

Article 30 of Law Number 2 of 1998Article 30 of Law Number 2 of 1998

Also requires ADWEC to

‘ensure that, at all times, all reasonable demands for water and electricity in the Emirate are satisfied’.

To satisfy Law Number 2’s requirements ADWEC preparesannual forecasts of electricity and water demand.

ADWEC’s Demand Forecasts are used to prepare :

• ADWEC Statement of Future Capacity Requirements

• TRANSCO 5 Year Planning Statement

• Bulk Supply Tariff, ADWEA Budget and Other Planning.

1. Global Financial Crisis (GFC)When this forecast was being prepared in late 2008 / early 2009 the full impact of the GFC on ADWEC’s demand forecast was not fully known.

Demand forecast based on available information in late 2008 / early 2009 of impact of GFC.

ADWEC Winter 2009 / 2010 demand forecast will fully reflect impact of GFC on electricity / water demand.

2. Inclusion of significant additional exports to Northern Emirates.

3. Inclusion of significant additional ADNOC electricity demands.

4. Release of UPC’s Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 in September 2007.

5. Releasing of surplus oil revenues for major infrastructuredevelopments and industrial expansion (e.g. KPIZ / Zonescorp).

6. 6. Changes in land ownership laws during 2005.

Key Recent Demand DevelopmentsKey Recent Demand Developments

ADWECADWECElectricity Demand ForecastsElectricity Demand Forecasts

2009 2009 -- 20302030

ADWEC Global & System Electricity Peak Demand ForecastsADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MW)

6,620

7,967

9,524

11,346

13,787

15,432

17,019

18,38219,290

20,05620,807

21,605

22,96223,664

24,33525,074

25,93727,002

27,61828,212

28,84429,487

30,192

26,878

23,554

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,00029,00030,00031,00032,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Global Demand (Winter 2008 / 2009)

Emirate of Abu Dhabi System (Winter 2008 / 2009)

Global Demand Forecast (Winter 2007 / 2008) (Diversified)

Emirate of Abu Dhabi System (Winter 2007 / 2008)

Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply

ADWEC Regional Electricity Peak Demand ForecastsADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MW)

5,616

6,542

7,602

9,424

10,955

12,426

13,863

15,069

15,97616,742

17,49318,291

19,64820,350

21,02121,760

22,623

23,68824,304

24,89925,530

26,17326,878

6,620

7,967

9,524

11,346

13,787

15,432

17,019

18,38219,290

20,05620,807

21,605

22,96223,664

24,33525,074

25,93727,002

27,61828,212

28,84429,487

30,192

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,00029,00030,00031,00032,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Northern Emirates Supply

Abu Dhabi

Al Ain

Western Region

Global Demand

Emirate of Abu Dhabi System

NorthernEmirates Supply

Abu Dhabi Region

Al Ain

Western Region

Northern Emirates Supply includes electricity used for auxiliaries and pumping etc in addition to FEWA / FE(C) / SEWA demands etc.


ADWEC Global Electricity Peak Demand Forecast by SectorADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MW)

5,616

6,542

7,602

9,424

10,955

12,426

13,863

15,069

15,97616,742

17,49318,291

19,64820,350

21,02121,760

22,623

23,68824,304

24,89925,530

26,17326,878

7,967

9,524

11,346

13,787

15,432

17,019

18,38219,290

20,05620,807

21,605

22,96223,664

24,33525,074

25,93727,002

27,61828,212

28,84429,487

30,192

6,620

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,00029,00030,00031,00032,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Northern Emirates Supply (including auxiliaries, losses & pumping etc)Residential / Commercial Mega Projects (including Workers Camps)IndustryADNOCAuxilairies (Emirate of Abu Dhabi)Non-Mega ProjectsGlobal Demand (including Diversity Factor)Emirate of Abu Dhabi System

Non-Mega Projects

Auxiliaries

ADNOC

Industry

NorthernEmirates Supply

Residential / CommercialMega Projects

Northern Emirates Supply includes electricity used for auxiliaries and pumping etc in addition to FEWA / FE(C) / SEWA demands etc.

ADNOC Peak Electricity Imports from ADWECADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MW)

674 678740

1,096

1,514 1,4901,554 1,581 1,592 1,596 1,613

1,6771,744 1,771 1,781 1,804

1,863 1,903 1,945 1,988 2,032 2,077

278 340

1,161

1,626

2,009

2,523

2,8922,954 2,965 2,970 3,007

3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070 3,070

3,078

3,5283,668

3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745 3,745

340 415

1,416

1,983

2,450

3,6233,6173,603

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Example Auxiliaries (approx 4%)

Example Transmission Losses 2%

TAKREER

ADCO / GASCO

Example Required Capacity (approx 15% margin)

Total ADNOC Power Import from ADWEC

Total ADNOC Power Import from ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Forecast

ADCO / GASCO

TAKREER

ADWEC Industrial Electricity Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MW)

356

655

1,447

1,920

2,224

2,687

3,081

4,5994,715

4,8805,109

5,439

5,927 5,982 5,999 6,016 6,034 6,083

2,233

2,526

3,421 3,5103,608

3,970 4,044 4,121 4,202 4,286 4,373 4,464 4,5594,658 4,658 4,658

3,933

3,573

3,347

971

3,8363,717

2,903

1,206

165

582

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast

Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast

Industrial Demand includes KPIZ, ZonesCorp & Al Waha Land etc, but excludes ADNOC.

Excludes Distribtution & Transmission Losses and Auxiliaries

ADWEC Final Consumption Electricity Peak Demand Forecast (MW)ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts

-729-591

-215

-507

-145

273460

876

1,183

1,414

1,757

2,4542,599

2,7392,918

3,181

3,563 3,541 3,479 3,439 3,484 3,562

-1,400-1,200-1,000

-800-600-400-200

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,4003,600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Worker CampsNon-Mega ProjectsResidential / Commercial Mega ProjectsADNOCIndustryTotal Final Consumption

Emirate of Abu Dhabi

Excludes Distribution & Transmission Losses and Auxiliaries

ADWEC Regional Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (MW) ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts

-1,250

-1,000

-750

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Abu Dhabi Region

Al Ain Region

Western Region

Total System (Pre-Diversity)

Includes Distribution & Transmission Losses and Auxiliaries

ADWEC Regional Final Consumption Electricity Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 v 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts (MW)

-729-591

-215

-507

-145

273460

876

1,183

1,414

1,757

2,4542,599

2,7392,918

3,181

3,563 3,541 3,479 3,439 3,484 3,562

-1,400-1,200-1,000

-800-600-400-200

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,4003,600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Western Region

Al Ain Region

Abu Dhabi Region

Total Final Consumption

Excludes Distribution & Transmission Losses and Auxiliaries


ADWEC Cumulative Change in Electricity Peak Demand Forecast ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MW)

502 585 721 706 676 643 688 694 742 683 746 804 881 967 1,059 1,157 1,260 1,361 1,456 1,556 1,662

2,802 2,864 2,875 2,880 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980 2,980

2,602 2,996 3,262 3,4884,514 4,630 4,795 5,024

5,842 5,897 5,914 5,931 5,998

2,2132,540

2,9433,327

4,1534,595

4,9555,294

5,9966,385 6,792

7,2398,162

234

256

420

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

428

428428

428

428

428

428

2,9802,980

2,9172,433

1,5361,071

1,919

888

5,949

5,354

3,848

2,139

1,362887

1,835

887

7,689

5,637

3,708

1,894

709

886

1,360

709966

2,043

3,895

5,451

6,947

8,407

9,633

10,555

11,333

12,097

12,908

14,287

15,00015,683

16,434

17,311

18,39319,019

19,62320,265

20,919

21,635

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Transmission Losses (2%)Distribution Losses (8%)Worker CampsResidential / Commercial Mega ProjectsIndustryADNOCAuxiliariesNon-Mega ProjectsTotal System (Undiversified)

Demonstrates that 70% - 80% of increase in Emirate of Abu Dhabi's demand comes from Industry, ADNOC & Residential / Commercial Mega Projects


New Residential / Commercial (Electricity) Mega Projects ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Peak MW)

0 6 20

101145

203256

326

397

468

538

609

680

751784

817850

883917

950983

1,016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Nations Towers

Lagoon Club

Al Bateen Park

Motor World

Baniyas shopping Mall

Hydra Village

Capital District

Al Wathba Development

Total

ADWECADWECWater Demand ForecastsWater Demand Forecasts

2009 2009 -- 20302030

Key Water IssuesKey Water Issues (i)(i)•• Constrained versus Unconstrained ForecastsConstrained versus Unconstrained Forecasts

Water network constraints limit the amount of water than can be deter network constraints limit the amount of water than can be delivered tolivered tocustomers.customers.

Currently not all of the water desalination capacity can be fuCurrently not all of the water desalination capacity can be fully utilised because of lly utilised because of water network constraints.water network constraints.

Water demand is by definition unconstrained, i.e. how much watWater demand is by definition unconstrained, i.e. how much water consumers er consumers would like to consume.would like to consume.

Water network constraints limits the amount of water than custWater network constraints limits the amount of water than customers can consume.omers can consume.

ADWEC prepares two water demand forecasts:ADWEC prepares two water demand forecasts:

1. Constrained Demand Forecast (including impact of transm1. Constrained Demand Forecast (including impact of transmission constraints)ission constraints)2. Unconstrained Demand Forecast (assuming no transmission2. Unconstrained Demand Forecast (assuming no transmission constraints).constraints).

Until 2012 Constrained Demand Forecast < Unconstrained Demand Until 2012 Constrained Demand Forecast < Unconstrained Demand Forecast Forecast

20122012--2030 Constrained Demand Forecast = Unconstrained Demand Forecast2030 Constrained Demand Forecast = Unconstrained Demand Forecast

Key Water IssuesKey Water Issues (ii)•• Removal of Water Network ConstraintsRemoval of Water Network Constraints

TRANSCOTRANSCO’’s water network constraints are assumed to be fully removed by 2s water network constraints are assumed to be fully removed by 2012.012.

TRANSCOTRANSCO’’s water network constraints primarily reduce the amount of waters water network constraints primarily reduce the amount of water thatthatcan be supplied to Al Ain region (AADC).can be supplied to Al Ain region (AADC).

The removal of TRANSCOThe removal of TRANSCO’’s network constraints will enable more water to bes network constraints will enable more water to bedelivered to the Al Ain region.delivered to the Al Ain region.

• New Short Term Demands

Substantial new water demands notified to ADWEC since March 20Substantial new water demands notified to ADWEC since March 2008.08.

ADWEC Constrained Mean Regional Water Peak Demand ForecastsADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MIGD)

587617

683711

887928

966991

1,0111,032

1,0541,073

1,0991,123

1,1451,165

1,1851,204 1,221 1,238 1,255 1,272 1,290

614649

729

956997

1,0361,061 1,081 1,102 1,124 1,144

1,1701,194 1,216 1,237 1,256 1,276 1,293 1,310 1,328 1,345 1,362

758

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Auxilliaries

Northern Emirates Supply

Abu Dhabi

Al Ain

Western Region

Global Demand

Emirate of Abu Dhabi System(excluding Auxiliaries)

Abu Dhabi

Al Ain

Western Region


ADWEC Mean Global Water Peak Demand Forecasts (Gross MIGD)ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts

1 19

-9-51

103 106 97 89 86 83 79 86 90 92 94 96 102 107 110 113 119 11795

956997

1,0361,061 1,081 1,102 1,124 1,144

1,1701,194 1,216 1,237 1,256 1,276 1,293 1,310 1,328 1,345 1,362

613 630

738

861894

930964

992 1,0161,041 1,065 1,084 1,104 1,124 1,143 1,160 1,174 1,186 1,200 1,215 1,226

876823

684 758649614 729

742791

828

705809

1,245

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Change in Constrained Global Demand Forecast

Unconstrained Winter 2008 / 2009 Global Demand Forecast

Constrained Winter 2008 / 2009 Global Demand Forecast

Unconstrained Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast

Constrained Winter 2007 / 2008 Global Demand Forecast


ADWEC Constrained Mean Water Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast (MIGD)

2025

35

4652

-49

-98

11 86 411 11

1910 10

30 30 30

-13

8795 98

-3

-59

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Abu Dhabi Region

Al Ain Region

Western Region

Northern Emirates

Global excluding Auxiliaries

ADWEC Constrained Industrial Water Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MIGD)

40

4753

5964

7580

8590

9397

100

107 110 112 114 116 117 118 120

2933

38

48

5561

6773

79

85

111

117121

124128

132135 138 140

25

105

102

25

92

104

98

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast

ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast

Industrial Demand includes KPIZ, ZonesCorp, Al Waha Land & ADNOC

The difference between the ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 and Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts in the initial years is due to the increase in KPIZ demands and the new water demands of (Al Waha Land).

After 2020, the ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast excludes demands by Baynounah Industrial City that were included in the ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast.

ADWEC Constrained Mean Water Peak Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 versus 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecasts (MIGD)

-8

19

-13

-59

8795 98

8880

76 73 7076

82 85 86 9095

101 104 106112 112

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Northern EmiratesAl Ain RegionWestern RegionAbu Dhabi RegionGlobal excluding Auxiliaries

Includes Losses but excluding Auxiliaries.

Note: The Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast uses within Region Patterning, which wasn't used in the Winter 2007 / 2008 Demand Forecast, which Ceteris Paribus lowers each Region's total.Summing individual Regional totals to obtain Abu Dhabi Emirate therefore less inaccurate than before, however still inaccurate as some diversity will exist between Regions. Note conclusion is that these regional changes between the two demand forecasts is not comparable.

ADWEC Constrained Mean Global Water Peak Demand Forecast by SectorADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (Gross MIGD)

614649

729758

956997

1036 1061 1081 1102 1124 1144 1170 1194 1216 1237 1256 1276 1293 1310 1328 1345 1362

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Total Auxiliaries

Northern Emirates

Agricultural

Shabiat

Villas

Domestic

Industrial (including ADNOC)

Residential / Commercial Mega Projects

Bulk and Other

Global Demand including Auxiliaries

ADWEC Cumulative Change Constrained Mean Peak Water Demand ForecastADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast (MIGD)

-1 9 16

117 135 145 153 161 167 173 178 182 186 190 193 196 198 201 203 205 206 208

1558 79

142177

214245

272 290 307 318 333 346 356 366 374 382 388 394 401 407 413

30

95124

300

340379

404424

444466

486512

536557

578597

616634

651668

685702

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Industrial (including ADNOC)

Residential / Commercial Mega Projects

Agricultural

Bulk and Other

Shabiat

Villas

Domestic

Total

Demonstrates that 80% - 90% of increase in Emirate of Abu Dhabi's Peak Water Demand comes from Residential / Commercial Mega Projects and Bulk & Other consumers

Emirate of Abu Dhabi including losses but excluding auxiliaries and excluding Northern Emirates.

SummarySummary• Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and economic downturn has lowered the

demand forecast in the early years to some extent.

• A significant increase in exports to the Northern Emirates has been committed to.

• Significant increase in electricity to be supplied to ADNOC.

• Short – medium term slower electricity demand growth in:

(1) Residential / Commercial Mega Projects(2) Industry

is partially offset by higher ADNOC demand in short run.

More than fully offset in the medium-term and increased in the long-run.

• ADWEC demand forecasts will be updated in late 2009 / early 2010 and will become the ADWEC Winter 2009 / 2010 Demand Forecast.

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

AnnexAnnexADWEC Planning ProcessADWEC Planning Process

Implementation SchedulesImplementation Schedules

YearsYears

5+ Years

3 - 4 Years

2 - 3.5 Years

2 - 3 Years

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Mega ProjectsInfrastructure ProjectsConventional IWPPsGas / Oil Supplies

Mega Projects

Conventional IWPPs

Gas / Oil Supplies

Infrastructure Projects

IWPPs require up to 4 years4 years from decision to proceed to completion

Existing 400kV circuitsExisting 220kV circuitsExisting 132kV circuitsADNOC 132kV circuits

Power StationSub-Station

ADNOC Oil & Gas PlantEMAL Smelter

Under ConstructionPlanned

Planned line cut

Existing 400kV circuitsExisting 400kV circuitsExisting 220kV circuitsExisting 220kV circuitsExisting 132kV circuitsExisting 132kV circuitsADNOC 132kV circuitsADNOC 132kV circuits

Power StationPower StationSubSub--StationStation

ADNOC Oil & Gas PlantADNOC Oil & Gas PlantEMAL SmelterEMAL Smelter

Under ConstructionUnder ConstructionPlannedPlanned

Planned line cutPlanned line cut

Abu DhabiBu Hasa(ADCO Load) 109 M

W

Existing Capacity as of 31/12/2009 along with ADNOC, ENG, GCC & EMAL interconnection.

1,615 MW

186 MW

10,110 MW

Asab(ADCO Load)

Liwa

Sila Shuweihat

JebelDhanna

MirfaTarif

Dhabiya(ADCO Load)

Ramah

Wagan

SanaiyaAl Ain

Mina (ADST) Shahama

SamhaHayer

Dubai

TOTAL(GROSS MW)

Khazna

4,651 MW

2,433 MW

To Salwa (GCC

interconnection)

Dhaid

Al Oha/Al Foa

To Al Wassit (GCC interconnection)

Dahma

Arad

MazyadAl Ain SW

E48

Mussaffah

GIC

Central

Rumaitha(ADCO Load)

Liwa West (Eradah)

February 11, 2010

GhayathiONGS

(ADCO Load)Bab(ADCO Load)

Hameem(ADCO Load)

AGD II(ADCO Load)

Ruwais

900 – 1,150 MW(2010)

250 MW(2009)

400 MW(2010)

1,150 MW

861 MW

Ajman

Umm Al Quwain

Ras Al Khaimah

To Dubai

(ENG

interconnection)

Warsan

Taweelah

Qidfa

Sweihan

UAN

Wathba

Bahia

Airport

Khowr Khawer

Tawian

Saja

Madinat Zayed

X

Salamat

Zakher

256 MW

Shamkha

1,150 MW

(2010)

Umm El Oush

(Oct 2009)

EMAL2,220 MW

(2010)

Delma

(Nov2009)

(May 2009)

Fujairah

Khorfakkan

Gurfa

Fujairah

DibbaHamariya

SEWA

Network

Galailah

(Nov2009)

Yas Island

Sahil(ADCO Load)

Habshan(ADCO Load)

NGI Plant(ADCO Load)

GUP-TAKREER(ADNOC)676 MW

DEWA

Network

Sharjah

Saadiyat

ADWEC Electricity MapADWEC Electricity Map

39 MG

D

684 MG

D

101 MG

D

1600 mm1400 mm1200 mm1000 mm900 mm800 mm600 mm500 mm

Pumping Station (PS)Desalination Plant

Proposed PSUnder Construction / Proposed

1600 mm1600 mm1400 mm1400 mm1200 mm1200 mm1000 mm1000 mm900 mm900 mm800 mm800 mm600 mm600 mm500 mm500 mm

Pumping Station (PS)Pumping Station (PS)Desalination PlantDesalination Plant

Proposed PSProposed PSUnder Construction / ProposedUnder Construction / Proposed

Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2009, excluding isolated Plants and Al Ain Network.

TOTAL

Abu Dhabi

Dubai

Al Ain

ADPS

MirfaShuweihat

UNIT 5

ShoubaisiAbu Al Abyad

Tarif

New Mirfa PS

Madinat Zayed

Liwa

Wagan

Jurf

Sila

PS1

PS2

Sih Shoib

Jebel Ali

297 MG

D

Qidfa

Tanks

Ghayathi

Adla

102 MG

D

February 11, 2010

UNIT 3Sweihan

UANUnits I & II

Al-Saad

Ajban

Taweelah

Sharjah

Fujairah

Ras Al Khaimah

Jazirat Al-Hamra

Tap Off 12

Ramah

Al-MahaForests

145 MG

D

DETAIL A

ADPS

UAN

UNIT 1

UNIT 2

LULU ISLAND

SADIYAT ISLAND

145 MG

D

REEM ISLAND

TO UNIT 3

N-4381Aug 2010

N-5805May 2010

N-3850Sep 2009

N-6139Jul 2011

N-5807Jul 2009

N-4268Dec 2010

N-6820/6821July 2011

Bani Yass

Mussaffah

Samha

Lulu Island

UNIT 4

Tao Off 9A

ADWEC Water MapADWEC Water Map

ADWEC Planning OverviewADWEC Planning OverviewDemand Forecast

(including losses & auxiliary consumption)

Add Reserve Margin(Electricity GSS LOLE 0.1 / Water DSS 1 day in 50 years)

= Required Capacity Forecast

Existing / Planned / Under Construction Capacity

+

Versus

= New Capacity Requirements= New Capacity Requirements

ADWEC Electricity and WaterADWEC Electricity and WaterDemand Forecasting RegionsDemand Forecasting Regions

Abu DhabiAbu DhabiRegionRegion

WesternWesternRegionRegion

Al AinAl AinRegionRegion

Note: The sum of regional peaks is not equal to the system peak because of timing differences.

2006 peak per capita consumptions•• Electricity 3 kW per capitaElectricity 3 kW per capita•• Water 86 gallons per capitaWater 86 gallons per capita

Emirate of Abu Dhabi Population(2005 Census)

Peak Electricity Demand(2008 Gross MW)

Peak Water Supply(2008 Gross MIGD)

Abu Dhabi Region 757,523 3,511 375Al Ain Region 422,340 1,538 165Western Region 112,356 634 55Total 1,292,219 5,616 595

`

ADWEC Demand Forecasting ProcessADWEC Demand Forecasting Process

Population Inputs:1. Urban Planning Council (UPC)2. Mega Projects’ Population Forecasts3. 2005 Census4. Government Organisations5. ADWEC Historical Population Forecasts

Residential / Commercial

Industrial Inputs: 1. Zonescorp2. ADBIC3. Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ)4. ADNOC / GASCO / ADCO etc

Industrial Sector

ADWEA Company Demand Forecasts:1. AADC 2. ADDC3. TRANSCO (e.g. transmission losses)4. ADWEC Auxiliary Consumption

All SectorsTransmission Code

Other Demand Forecasts / Inputs:1. Mega Projects’ Developers Forecasts 2. Mega Projects’ Master plans3. Government Organisations4. Other Emirates Demand Forecasts 5. ADWEC Assumptions

All SectorsMega Projects / Non-Mega Projects

Other Emirates

Inputs ADWEC Electricity & WaterDemand Forecasts

Official Data Sources

ADWECIndependent Research

ADWEC Site Visits

Publications

• MEED magazine• Gulf News• Khaleej Times• Property Weekly• Arabic Newspapers

Internet

• gulfnews.com• khaleejtimes.com• uaeinteract.com• ameinfo.com• gulfconstructionworldwide.com• aldar.com• sorouh.com• other developers websites• google.co.uk• live.com• Arabic websites

Database created using public sources only

Private developer information is notused in the Public Database.

Public Database is used as

• Project Checklist

• Project Population Check

• Create Comparison Forecast

ADWEC generic assumptions(e.g. 3 kW per capita)+ Public Sources Database

= Comparison Forecast

• Urban Planning Council

• Transmission Code

Distribution Companies

Transmission Company

• 2005 Census

• Developers’ Plans

• 2001 Census

• Customer Databases

• Abu Dhabi Departments

• UAE Ministries

• Customer Requests

ADWECPublic Sources Database

ADWEC Demand Forecast Data SourcesADWEC Demand Forecast Data Sources

Abu Dhabi Metropolitan AreaAbu Dhabi Metropolitan Area

Source: Urban Planning Council – Plan Abu Dhabi 2030

1,300,000

2,000,000

3,100,000

180,000251,000

686,000

930,000

411,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2007 2013 2020 2030

ResidentsResidential Units

Population Forecasts

ADWEC’s Base Demand Forecasts now based on UPC’s Plan Abu Dhabi 2030

ADWEC BaseADWEC Base Electricity MethodologyElectricity Methodologyfor Residential / Commercial Mega Projectsfor Residential / Commercial Mega Projects

Mega Projects’ Developers Connected Load Forecasts

ADWEC Demand / Diversity Factors

Developers’ Connected Load x ADWEC Demand / Diversity Factors= Unadjusted Developers’ Mega Projects Peak Demand Forecast

Peak Demand Forecast Adjustment Factors for 2013 / 2020 / 2030UPC’s Total Population Forecasts

versusMega Projects Developers’ Total Population Forecasts

ADWEC Base Electricity Demand Forecast

Mega Projects’ Population Curve Pro-rated to obtain Intermediate Years

ADWEC Mega Project Implementation Lags(based on Site Visits / Progress / Past Experience etc)

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