Reflecting on ‘Human Choice and Climate Change’

Dipak Gyawali Academician, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology & Chair, Nepal Water Conservation Foundation, Kathmandu 14th January 2015

August 2008 Kosi Breach: Flood from Climate Change???

Hardly!!!! Explanation more ‘pedestrian’ and garden variety!!

Rayner, S. and Malone, E. (eds) 1998. Human Choice and Climate Change. Vol 1-4. Battelle Pacific Northwest National Lab, Columbus, Ohio.

Human Choice & Climate Change’s Ten Suggestions for Policy Makers

1. View climate change issue holistically and not only as emissions reduction (or adaptation: DG)

2. Recognize institutional limits being as important as environmental limits

3. Recognize likelihood that social, economic and technological change will be more rapid and have greater impact on human populations than climate change

4. Recognize limits of rational planning

5. Employ decision aids from full range of natural & social sciences and humanities

6. Design policy for real world rather than fit world into particular policy model

7. Incorporate climate change concerns into other more immediate issues such as employment, economic development, public health, security

8. Make climate policy making and implementation more regional and local

9. Direct resources into identifying vulnerability and promoting resilience in massive impact areas

10.Use pluralistic approach to decision making

Marco Verweij and Michael Thompson (eds). 2006. Clumsy Solutions for a Complex World: Governance, Policy and Plural Perceptions. Palgrave/Macmillan Press, Basingstoke, UK.

Cumbersome to implement international

mechanisms of CDMs, JI, emission permits

Measures insufficient to stabilize world climate

even in most favourable scenario

Trading scheme too expensive (transaction

and political costs); encourages ‘wait-and-see’

instead of ‘no regrets’

Informed only by hierarchic procedural

fetishism, ignores egalitarian and

individualistic forms of governance

Hulme, M. 2009. Why We Disagree About Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity; Cambridge University Press, UK.

“Climate change, global warming and greenhouse effect have different meanings popularly across languages and scientifically

Human beings are more than material objects and climate is more than a physical entity

Climate change cannot be ‘solved’ by technical and political resource mobilization like ozone depletion

We need to understand ways in which climate change connects with foundational human attributes in psychological, spiritual and ethical work

We disagree about climate change because we worry about different things

Asymmetrical Transactions

Symmetrical Transactions

Competition

Unfettered and

Unaccountable

Competition

Fettered and

Accountable

FATALISM HIERARCHY

INDIVIDUALISM EGALITARIANISM

RESOURCE LOTTERY RESOURCE SCARCITY

RESOURCE DEPLETION RESOURCE ABUNDANCE

CLUB GOODS PUBLIC GOODS

PRIVATE GOODS COMMON-POOL GOODS

Electricity as ‘mirage’ in ads? Electricity as regulated ‘municipal or

utility supply’.

Priced, glamourized private

diesel generators, solar on

rooftops, individual solutions.

Accessible to all, ‘common pool’

Alternative Energy – banmara briquettes

Resources: Abundance, Scarcity or Depletion?

Source: D. Gyawali 2009. Pluralized Water Policy Terrain = Sustainability and Integration.

SAWAS 1(2): 193-199 http://www.sawasjournal.org/templates/sawas/images/PluralizedWaterPolicyTerrain.pdf

believes in

that produces

from which they are excluded

argues for

to produce

argues against

to produce

argues for

to produce

low jointness high

hig

h

exclud

ab

ility

Hierarchism: Coercive Power (Tamasik), Strategy of Codes and Procedures

Individualism: Persuasive Power (Rajasik), Strategy of Networking Freedom Egalitarianism: Moral Power (Satwik), Strategy of Critique

Source: D. Gyawali 2003.

Rivers, Technology and Society, Zed Books, London

Agency Choice: Cement Dam, Modern cement technology

Community Choice: Brushwood Dam, simple labor saving devices

Market Choice: Diesel Pump, Donkey Cart-Mobile Phone, Irrigated Truck

Bureaucratic Hierarchism Control - too many people is the problem: Solution is to manage it through rules and regulation.

Degradation Abundance

Scarcity

Market Individualism

Egalitarianism of Social Movements/Greens

Free innovation is the solution to scarcity brought about by too much control and scare mongering.

Profligacy is the problem: solution is to reign in our greed.

Climate Change

Adapted from Rayner and Malone (1998)

Neruvian Politics: Regulatory and Management Solutions

Regano-Thatcherite Politics: Technical creativity and solutions

Gandhian Politics: Ethical Behavioral solutions

Plural Definition of the Wicked Climate Change Problem

(and the origins of innovation)

Answer is: “Many 10% Solutions”!!

International Treaty

Consensus

Nat

ion

Sta

te

Nat

ion

Sta

te

Nat

ion

Sta

te

Nat

ion

Sta

te

Old AssumptionBased on S. Rayner and E. Malone 1998: Social Science Insights in Climate Change, in Human Choice and Climate

Change, Pacific Northwest National Lab, Battelle Press, Ohio.

International Treaty

ConsensusN

atio

n S

tate

Nat

ion

Sta

te

Nat

ion

Sta

te

Nat

ion

Sta

te

New Reality

Based on S. Rayner and E. Malone 1998: Social Science Insights in Climate Change, in Human Choice and Climate

Change, Pacific Northwest National Lab, Battelle Press, Ohio.

Environmental Activists

Multinational Corporations

Scientific and Professional Groups

Non Government Social Organizations

Verweij, M. 2000. Transboundary Environmental Problems and Cultural Theory: The Protection of the Rhine and the Great Lakes. Palgrave, Basingstoke, UK

Benedick, R. E. 1991. Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachussets, USA.

If the Rhine can be cleaned up and the salmon returned, every polluted river AND the atmosphere can be cleaned up

Non-binding goals and commitments at the high level, implementation at the lowest unit of governance

All three styles of organizing included at the level of cantons and landers

Pragmatically oriented American industry forced intervened in favour and against US Government

Informed consumers and consumer groups had decisive influence

Effectiveness of a regulatory agreement is enhanced when it employs market incentives to stimulate technological innovations