dioxin exposure modeling / prof. jean francois viel
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Dispersion modeling and use of GISfor dioxin exposure assessment
in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator:
a validation study.
JF Viel, N Floret, E Lucot, JY Cahn, PM Badot, F Mauny
University of Franche-Comté, France
Introduction
Whether low environmental doses of dioxin affect the general population is the matter of intense debate and controversy.
In a previous study, we found a 2.3-fold risk for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma associated with residence classified as highly exposed to dioxin emitted from a MSWI (Besançon, France).
Floret N, Mauny F, Challier B, Arveux P, Cahn JY, Viel JF. Dioxin emissions from a solid waste incinerator and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Epidemiology 2003;14:392-398.
The main limitation lay within the use of dispersion modeling as a proxy for dioxin exposure.
Aim
The goal of this study was therefore to validate
geographic based-exposure categories (derived from
isopleths of predicted ground concentrations from a
first-generation Gaussian-type dispersion model)
through PCCD/F measurements from soil samples.
Materials and methods
The municipal solid waste incinerator of Besançon, France
Began operation in 1971.
Located in an urbanized area.
Capacity: 7.2 metric tons/hour.
Stack: 40 m high.
Processing: 67,000 tons of waste (1998).
Emissions (1997): dioxin: 16.3 ng I-TEQ/m3, dust: 315.6 mg/Nm3, hydrogen chlorine: 803.5 mg/Nm3, exhaust gases not maintained at temperatures ≥
850°C for the legal time (> 2 s).
Study area
It exhibits a complex pattern: on the northeast side:
the site is a mixed commercial/urban area,
with gentle hills of moderate slope,
on the southwest side: the terrain is complex,
with more pronounced hills and valleys,
mainly covered with forest and urban patches.
Southwest of the MSWI, looking in the northeast direction
Northeast of the MSWI, looking in the southwest direction
Dioxin exposure modeling and GIS
A first-generation Gaussian-type dispersion model (APC3) was performed in the framework of an environmental impact statement:
to predict the future impact of dioxin emissions from new combustion
chambers to be built.
The respective contours of the modeled ground-level air concentrations were digitalised and contoured onto the surface of a map.
We assumed that contour shapes were reliable estimates of past dioxin exposure profiles:
provided relative figures rather than absolute figures were used, the contours were, therefore, classified as very low, low, intermediate,
and high exposure areas.
Modeled average ground-level dioxin concentrations
< 0.0001 pg/m3
0.0001 - 0.0002 pg/m3
0.0002 - 0.0004 pg/m3
0.0004 - 0.0016 pg/m3
Dioxin concentrations
Municipal solid waste incineratorDoubs riverCity boundarySoil samples
5 km
N
Sampling
75 sampling sites were determined in relation to homogeneous geological and topographical conditions.
Description of sampling points: altitude, geomorphology features, ecology features.
Soil measurements: pH, organic carbon concentration, cation exchange capacity, PCDD/Fs:
17 congener concentrations, pg WHO-TEQ (toxic equivalent)/g dry matter.
Statistical analyses
Simple and multiple regression analyses were carried out
to model the relation between: the natural logarithm of WHO-TEQ concentration in soil
samples, as dependent variable,
independent variables: dioxin exposure categories derived from the dispersion model,
soil parameters,
geomorphology and ecology parameters.
Independent variables were included in the multivariate
model, if they had a P-value of 0.20 or less in the
univariate analysis.
Results
Dioxin soil concentrations
Range = 0.25 - 28.06 pg WHO-TEQ/g dry matter.
Means (standard deviations), per geographic-based exposure and topography complexity categories.
Geographic-based
exposure Very low Low
Intermediate
High
Complex topography
1.09 (1.76) 2.44 (3.53) 1.91 (1.12) 1.37 (0.21)
Simple topography
1.81 (1.14) 1.99 (1.37) 3.53 (2.30)11.25
(12.39)
pg WHO-TEQ/g dry matter.
Adjusted means of log-transformed dioxin concen-tration per modeled dioxin exposure categories
Dioxin exposure
Ln I - TEQ (ln pg /g dry matter )
0
1
2
- 1 Very low Low Intermediate High
Ln WHO-TEQ and independent variablesVariable ß P-value
Complex topography (r² = 30.5 %)
Modeled dioxin exposure
very low - -
low 0.49 0.17
intermediate 0.87 0.02
high 0.47 0.19
Soil parameters
organic carbon concentration
0.01 0.23
Geomorphology parameters
altitude -0.01 0.05
Ln WHO-TEQ and independent variablesVariable ß P-value
Simple topography (r² = 52.2 %)
Modeled dioxin exposure
very low - -
low 0.23 0.40
intermediate 0.56 0.08
high 1.21 0.001
Soil parameters
organic carbon concentration
0.01 0.35
Geomorphology parameters
altitude -0.01 0.01
Discussion
Exposure assessment (1)
The two assumptions required to use geographic
exposure indicators were met to the northeast of the
MSWI: concentrations differed between areas in the manner
expected,
pollutant levels within an area were relatively uniform.
Therefore, contours of the modeled ground-level air
concentrations, classified in four increasing exposure
categories, adequately reflect past dioxin exposure in
this area.
Exposure assessment (2)
The first-generation Gaussian-type dispersion model revealed inappropriate for assessment of exposure on the southwest side.
This bias toward overprediction has also been described with ISC3 (a first-generation model similar to APC3).
Several limitations of APC3 software can explain these results: only a simplified topography has been introduced, the turbulence boundary layer between surface and air was not
considered, surface roughness, which affects the vertical profiles of wind and
temperature, was not accounted for.
Moreover, the stack shortness (40 m) made the fraction of PCDD/F emissions that is deposited locally very sensitive to the treatment of dispersion.
Case-control study
The subsequent question is whether this overprediction
challenges the findings of our case-control study, since it
entails a misclassification bias (although non-differential)
for people living to the southwest of the MSWI. only 10.5% of cases and 9.3% of controls were concerned,
a logistic regression restricted to cases and controls
residing on the northeast side yielded a slightly increased
OR in the highest dioxin exposure area (OR = 2.5, 95% CI,
1.4-4.5), compared to our initial finding (OR = 2.3, 95% CI,
1.4-3.8).
Conclusion
First-generation modeling provided a reliable proxy for
dioxin exposure in simple terrain, reinforcing the results
of our case-control study.
However, a more advanced atmospheric dispersion
model should have been used for refined assessment in
complex terrain.
Floret N, Viel JF, Lucot E, Dudermel PM, Cahn JY, Badot PM,
Mauny F. Dispersion modeling as a dioxin exposure indicator
in the vicinity of a municipal solid waste incinerator: a
validation study. Environ Sci Technol 2006;40:2149-55.
Thank you for your kind attention.
Soil concentrations
The current data show a notable PCDD/F contamination
by the MSWI in the areas under its direct influence.
PCDD/F concentrations in soil samples at the Besançon
site are comparable to levels found in different MSWI
sites.
However, the dispersion of PCDD/F emissions in the
atmosphere and their deposition onto soil being
governed by numerous factors, soil concentrations in
various locations around a MSWI must be compared
with caution.
Other potential emissions sources
There are no adjacent industrial sources, but a main road with heavy traffic runs near the plant.
To determine whether more than one potential emission source could explain the presence of PCDD/Fs in soil samples (and could challenge the ground-level concentration modeling), a principal component analysis (PCA) was carried out on the 17 congener concentrations.
The PCA provided a one-dimensional model (the first principal component explained 88% of the variance), reflecting high similarities in the congener profiles.
No other additional sources of PCDD/F contamination than the MSWI is, therefore, to be feared.