Dilemmas of regime shift in one-party dominated states: A case study of Japan

Dr. Christian Schafferer www.fule.atOverseas Chinese University

Content

Institutional setting ’55 System Electoral politics and the rise of the LDP

1994 Reforms and institutional limits Policy-making process Parliamentary caucus system

Political reform in the age of experience economy Politicians as experience stagers Prospective voting and the Manifesto

Institutional setting ’55 System

Electoral machine: 1950s – koenkai Corruption in 1970s: kinken-senkyo syndrom

Japanese ideal model of modern party system Two-party system with different support base

and policy orientations Alternation of political parties in power Political parties are strong and centralised Voters loyal to the party not to the candidate

Institutional setting ’55 System

One-and-a-half party system No alteration of political parties in power Voters loyal to candidates Candidates were entrepreneurs and parties

in general franchiser

1994 Reforms and institutional limits

Aims Two-party system Policy-oriented, party-controlled,

inexpensive elections Alteration of elites in power

1994 Reforms and institutional limits

Policy-making process in the LDP era Policy Affairs Research Council Parliamentary-strategy committees (kokutai)

Policy-making process in the coalition era Hosokawa: replace kokutai politics with

transparent institutionalised processes in parliament

Chairmen and secretaries-general of coalition parties (e.g. Ozawa, Japan Renewal Party)

1994 Reforms and institutional limits

Importance of parliamentary caucus system (innai kaiha) Size determines power in parliament Unified kaiha (toitsu kaiha) First step towards merger

Ozawa Ichiro’s strategy Form largest kaiha: minimise power of LDP and

JSP After election of Hata: new kaiha without

consulting JSP

1994 Reforms and institutional limits

Important aspects of the reform era Role and rise of the independent voter Reform is the catchword that attracts

voters Decline in retrospective voting behaviour

Political reform in the age of experience economy

Economies: agrarian – industrial – service – experience Experience economy: companies stage experiences that sell Applied to the political domain:

Elections are staged events They are part of popular culture Participants want to obtain memorable experiences They have high expectations and are eager to experience

something new

Political reform in the age of experience economy

Sophisticated media strategy 2000 election onwards Seko Hiroshige Miura Hiroshi

Political reform in the age of experience economy

Heroic figures Koizumi Junichiro – the lionheart

Political reform in the age of experience economy

Hatoyama Yukio – the alien spaceman

Political reform in the age of experience economy

Party manifestos